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A NEW ERA? TIMOR-LESTE AFTER THE UN A NEW ERA? TIMOR-LESTE AFTER THE UN Edited by Sue Ingram, Lia Kent and Andrew McWilliam Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at http://press.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: A new era? : Timor-Leste after the UN / Lia Kent, Sue Ingram, Andrew McWilliam, editors. ISBN: 9781925022506 (paperback) 9781925022513 (ebook) Subjects: Timor-Leste--Politics and government . Timor-Leste--Economic conditions--21st century. Timor-Leste--Social conditions--21st century. Other Creators/Contributors: Kent, Lia, editor. Ingram, Sue, editor. McWilliam, Andrew, editor. Dewey Number: 959.8704 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Printed by Griffin Press This edition © 2015 ANU Press Contents List of Illustrations . vii List of Contributors . ix Acknowledgements . .. xi Acronyms and Initialisms . xiii 1 . Introduction: Building the Nation: Legacies and Challenges for Timor-Leste . 1 Sue Ingram, Lia Kent and Andrew McWilliam PART ONE: BUILDING A NATION-STATE IN THE SHADOW OF HISTORY 2 . The Challenges of Nation-State Building . 17 Agio Pereira 3 . Past, Present and Future: Why the Past Matters . 31 Fidelis Magalhães 4 . The Politics of History in Timor-Leste . 41 Michael Leach 5 . Challenges to the Consolidation of Democracy . 59 Rui Graça Feijó PART TWO: TRENDS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 6 . Can the Petroleum Fund Exorcise the Resource Curse from Timor-Leste? . 73 Charles Scheiner 7 . Progress and Challenges of Infrastructure Spending in Timor-Leste . 103 Antonio Vitor 8 . Securing a New Ordering of Power in Timor-Leste: The Role of Sub-national Spending . 117 Saku Akmeemana and Doug Porter 9 . ‘Empty Land’? The Politics of Land in Timor-Leste . 141 Meabh Cryan PART THREE: STABILITY AND PEACE-BUILDING 10 . After Xanana: Challenges for Stability . 155 Cillian Nolan 11 . Rethinking Governance and Security in Timor-Leste . 169 Damian Grenfell 12 . Building Social Cohesion from Below: Learning from the Laletek (Bridge) Project 2010–12 . 187 Catharina Maria PART FOUR: CITIZENS, INEQUALITIES AND MIGRATION 13 . A Social Movement as an Antidote to Corruption . 203 Adérito de Jesus Soares 14 . The Veterans’ Valorisation Scheme: Marginalising Women’s Contributions to the Resistance . 213 Lia Kent and Naomi Kinsella 15 . Rural–Urban Inequalities and Migration in Timor-Leste . 225 Andrew McWilliam 16 . Assessing the Implementation and Impact of Timor-Leste’s Cash Payment Schemes . 235 Joanne Wallis 17 . Displacement and Informal Repatriation in a Rural Timorese Village . 251 Pyone Myat Thu List of Illustrations Figure 6 .1 Sectoral contributions to Timor-Leste’s ‘non-oil’ GDP per capita in 2013 . .. 75 Figure 6 .2 What do Timorese people do for work? . 77 Figure 6 .3 Timor-Leste’s petroleum revenue streams . 79 Figure 6 .4 State revenues and expenditures . 80 Figure 6 .5 Oil and gas income peaked in 2012 and continues to fall . 81 Figure 6 .6 Budgeted, executed and recurrent spending year by year . 82 Figure 6 .7 Allocation of the revised 2015 State Budget (US$1 .570 billion) . 83 Figure 6 .8 Base case scenario from sustainability model . .. 91 Figure 7 .1 National road upgrading project . .113 Figure 8 .1 Major infrastructure spending FY 2004 – FY 2013 (US$ millions) . 119 Figure 8 .2 PR/PDD and PDL budgets (US$ millions) . 121 Figure 8 .3 PDD and PDL budget compared to public overall and capital spending (US$ millions) . 124 Figure 8 .4 Sub-national spending in Timor—a chronology . .. 126 Figure 8 .5 Budget execution measures, 2009–12 . 128 Figure 9 .1 Prioritisation of community level land problems . 146 Figure 9 .2 Explaining the significance of land, Tutuala, Lautem . 148 Figure 11 .1 Sorumutu, Dili, 2006 . 172 Figure 11 .2 Sorumutu venue, Dili, 2006 . 181 Figure 12 .1 Liliana Amaral, Lalatek Technical Advisor, leading a mapping exercise in Fatuhada . 190 vii A New Era? Timor-Leste After the UN Figure 12 .2 The four dimensions of a conflict transformation framework . 194 Figure 17 .1 Map of Timor Island showing the districts in Timor-Leste and Kupang, the capital of West Timor . 253 viii List of Contributors Saku Akmeemana is Senior Governance Specialist, World Bank. Meabh Cryan is a PhD scholar in the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia program at The Australian National University. She previously worked for the Rede ba Rai (Land Network) and the Haburas Foundation Matadalan ba Rai program in Timor-Leste. Rui Graça Feijó is Associate Researcher at the CES-Centro de Estudos Sociais (Centre for Social Studies), University of Coimbra, Portugal. Damian Grenfell is Director of the Centre for Global Research, RMIT University. Sue Ingram is a PhD scholar in the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia program at The Australian National University. Lia Kent is a Research Fellow in the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia program at The Australian National University. Naomi Kinsella is an independent human rights and law consultant currently resident in Myanmar. Michael Leach is Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Education and Social Sciences, Faculty of Health, Arts and Design, Swinburne University of Technology. Fidelis Magalhães is Presidential Chief of Staff, Presidency of the Republic of Timor-Leste. Catharina Maria is an independent peace-building, gender and capacity strengthening consultant currently based in Bangkok. Andrew McWilliam is Senior Fellow in Anthropology, College of Asia and the Pacific at The Australian National University. ix A New Era? Timor-Leste After the UN Pyone Myat Thu is a Research Associate in the School of Anatomy, Physiology and Human Biology at The University of Western Australia. She was previously a Research Fellow in the State, Society and Governance of Melanesia program at ANU. Cillian Nolan is Deputy Director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) in Jakarta. Agio Pereira is Minister of State and of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers. Doug Porter is Justice and Rule of Law Adviser, Governance Global Practice, the World Bank. Charles Scheiner is a researcher at La’o Hamutuk (The Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis), Dili, Timor-Leste. Adérito de Jesus Soares is a PhD scholar in the Regulatory Institutions Network at The Australian National University and the former Anti-corruption Commissioner in Timor-Leste. Antonio Vitor is a consultant to the Asian Development Bank, Timor- Leste, and adviser to Timor-Leste’s Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications. Joanne Wallis is a Senior Lecturer, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University. x Acknowledgements This edited book originated in the inaugural Timor-Leste Update held at The Australian National University (ANU) from 28–29 November 2013. Entitled ‘Timor-Leste: A New Era? Prospects and Challenges for Timor-Leste’, the Update was an occasion for focused analysis and lively debate on a broad spectrum of issues facing the nation over the next 5–10 years. Attended by around 150 policymakers and scholars, and hosted by the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia (SSGM) program at ANU, there was general consensus that the Update should become a biennial event. In planning the Update, we were generously assisted by a group of dedicated and enthusiastic colleagues who joined us on an organising committee that met regularly during 2013 to refine the topics and program. Our sincere thanks go to committee members Susan Harris-Rimmer, Janet Hunt, Joanne Wallis, Ruth Nuttall and Pyone Myat Thu. We also wish to acknowledge the professional staff who worked with us on the staging of the Update, most importantly Joel Nilon, whose experience and calm manner were critical to ensuring the event ran smoothly, and to Peta Hill, for negotiating complex travel arrangements. We also thank Louana Gaffey for administrative support and Jonathan Barrett, for ensuring the event was recorded and podcast. We are extremely grateful to the Embassy of the Democratic Republic of Timor- Leste, in particular His Excellency Ambassador H.E. Mr Abel Guterres who collaborated generously with us as the program took shape. To mark Timor-Leste’s Proclamation of Independence Day, the Embassy organised a very successful celebration on the evening of the 28 November, to which all Update speakers and participants were invited, and at which the then Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Honourable Julie Bishop, offered commemorative remarks. xi A New Era? Timor-Leste After the UN The Update would also have been impossible without the sponsorship of the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ANU’s Research School of Asia and the Pacific, the State, the Society and Governance in Melanesia Program, and the Asia Foundation Timor-Leste. Much work has gone into preparing this edited book for publication. We are extremely grateful to Lindy Allen and Geoff Hunt, who provided exceptional copyediting and formatting support. We also thank Emily Tinker at ANU Press for guiding us through the publication process. Finally, we sincerely thank the conference presenters who took time out of their busy schedules to attend the event. Many travelled from Dili, others from Indonesia, Thailand and Portugal. Particular thanks are due to those who contributed to this volume. In planning the Update and the edited book, we aimed to bring together a group of leading scholars, policy analysts and political leaders, including many from Timor-Leste itself. This volume reflects that mix. It also reflects the thoughtful analysis that each brought to bear on specific aspects of Timor-Leste’s development a decade out from its rebirth as a nation, and the challenges for the future.
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