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Technology Forecasting The National Security Agency’s Review of Emerging Technologies 6Ê£nÊ Ê{ÊUÊÓ䣣 The Art of Forecasting and Futures Planning Will Carbon Be the New Silicon? The Security Impact of System Virtualization Thin Film/Miniature Power Sources Ss ee o eggec ooges Letter from the Editor /LNHHYHU\UHVHDUFKRUJDQL]DWLRQ16$·V5HVHDUFK'LUHFWRUDWH 5' ZDQWVWRNQRZ ´:KDW·VWKHQH[WELJWKLQJ"µ$QGOLNHHYHU\UHVHDUFKRUJDQL]DWLRQ5'UHYLHZVFXUUHQW WHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQWVLQWKHFRQVWDQWTXHVWWRSUHGLFW´WKHQH[WELJWKLQJµDQGWR DYRLGWHFKQRORJ\VXUSULVH The Next WaveLWVHOILVSDUWRIWKLVTXHVW³RXUPLVVLRQDIWHUDOOLVWRUHSRUWRQ HPHUJLQJWHFKQRORJLHV,QDGGLWLRQ5'DFTXLUHVLQGHSWKVWXGLHVRIWHFKQRORJ\WRSLFV WRJDXJHJOREDOUHVHDUFKDQGGHYHORSPHQWHIIRUWV0RVWRIWKHVHVWXGLHVDUHJHQHUDWHGE\ 'HSDUWPHQWRI(QHUJ\QDWLRQDOODERUDWRULHVZKLFKIRFXVRQFXWWLQJHGJHUHVHDUFKDQG VFLHQFHEDVHGVROXWLRQVWRKDUGQDWLRQDOFKDOOHQJHV 7KLV71:LVVXHPHUJHVWKHWZRHIIRUWVDVZHSUHVHQWVHYHUDODUWLFOHVEDVHGRQLQ GHSWKVWXGLHVSUHSDUHGE\6DQGLD1DWLRQDO/DERUDWRULHV 6DQGLD DQG3DFLÀF1RUWKZHVW 1DWLRQDO /DERUDWRU\ 311/ 7KH DUWLFOHV FRYHU D EURDG UDQJH RI WRSLFV LQFOXGLQJ YLUWXDOL]DWLRQDQGVHFXULW\JUDSKHQHDVDUHSODFHPHQWIRUVLOLFRQDQGWKLQÀOPPLQLDWXUH SRZHUVRXUFHV ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHULRXVVFLHQWLÀFIRUHFDVWVRXU'HSDUWPHQWV(GLWRUKDVZULWWHQD OLJKWHUDUWLFOHDERXWWHFKQRORJ\IRUHFDVWLQJLQJHQHUDO+HHVSHFLDOO\HQMR\HGUHVHDUFKLQJ WHFKQRORJ\IRUHFDVWVIURPWKH5RPDQHUDWRWKHSUHVHQWGD\WKDWWXUQHGRXWWREHZURQJ 6RSOHDVHHQMR\ The Next WaveLVSXEOLVKHGWRGLVVHPLQDWHVLJQLÀFDQWWHFKQLFDODGYDQFHPHQWVDQGUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVLQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV0HQWLRQVRIFRPSDQ\QDPHVRUFRPPHUFLDOSURGXFWVGR QRWLPSO\HQGRUVHPHQWE\WKH86*RYHUQPHQW$UWLFOHVSUHVHQWYLHZVRIWKHDXWKRUVDQGQRWQHFHVVDULO\ WKRVHRI16$RUWKH71:VWDII For more information, please contact us at [email protected] CONTENTS FEATURES 4 The Art of Forecasting and Futures Planning 8 Will Carbon Be the New Silicon? 18 The Security Impact of System Virtualization 25 Thin Film/Miniature Power Sources The Art of Forecasting and Futures Planning “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” – A memo at Western Union, 1876 1876 1883 “What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches?” – The Quarterly Review, England, 1825 “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” – Lord Kelvin, 1838 President of the Royal Society, 1883 1825 “Men might as well project a voyage to the Moon as attempt “…so many centuries after the to employ steam navigation Creation it is unlikely that anyone against the stormy North could find hitherto unknown lands of Atlantic Ocean.” any value.” – Dr. Dionysius Lardner, professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy at – Advisors to King Ferdinand and Queen University College, London, 1838 Isabella of Spain regarding a proposal by Christopher Columbus, 1486 1486 “I also lay aside all ideas of any new works or engines of war, the invention of which long- ago reached its limit, and in which I see no hope for further improvement.” – Roman engineer Julius Sextus Frontinus, cAD 84 cAD 84 4 The Art of Forecasting and Futures Planning “A rocket will never be able to “There is not the slightest leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” indication that nuclear energy – New York Times, 1936 will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would 2004 have to be shattered at will.” 1949 – Albert Einstein, 1932 1936 1911 1932 “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have “Two years from now, only 1,000 vacuum tubes and ‘spam’ will be solved.” weigh only 1.5 tons.” – Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, 2004 – Popular Mechanics, March 1949 “Airplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value.” – Marshal Ferdinand Foch, future WWI Supreme Commander of the Allied Armies, 1911 eering into the crystal ball can for is to glimpse the future and try to yield images that are cloudy and I predict... prepare for it. even upside-down. Still, everyone P “…four or five frigates will do the On technology’s horizon, numerous seems compelled to look. People are more business without any military force.” scenarios considered inevitable today than just curious to know what the future – Lord North, British Prime Minister, debating imposing the Stamp Act on were practically inconceivable a holds—we obsess over weather forecasts, the American Colonies, 1774 generation ago. Fuel cells, nanobots, stock market predictions, and the odds on unmanned vehicles, metamaterials, and the big game. “How, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by telepathic communication are already The art of futuring has been lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray ÀQGLQJ WKHLU ZD\ LQWR SUDFWLFDO XVH practiced in various forms over the you, excuse me, I have not the time to Time travel, invisibility cloaks, cyborgs, listen to such nonsense.”– Napoleon course of human history. Today’s Bonaparte, when told of Robert quantum computers, and human clones forecasters, professionally called Fulton’s steamboat, 1800s might not be all that far off. futurists or futurologists, may rely on “Rail travel at high speed is not Futuring helps us imagine statistical models run through massive possible because passengers, unable the unimaginable and anticipate supercomputers, but their quest to foresee to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”– Dr Dionysius Lardner, professor of Natural the unforeseen. In a world rapidly the future is little different than it was Philosophy and Astronomy, University transformed by technology, the for oracles, soothsayers, and prophets of College London, 1828 unimaginable can suddenly turn into yore. Although knowing what to expect “It’s a great invention but who would crisis and the unforeseen the status quo. might make it possible to change the want to use it anyway?”– Rutherford To prevent being taken by technological course of human events, tempting fate B. Hayes, US President, after a demonstration of Alexander Bell’s surprise, it is essential to anticipate the can be a futile exercise, even in modern telephone, 1877 unexpected. Industry relies on technology times. Often, the best that can be hoped forecasts to set production goals, order The Next Wave Vol 18 No 4 2011 5 commodities, and schedule expansion. future development, a targeted approach For the intelligence community, the “When the Paris Exhibition closes, depends on agreeing on what the future is stakes are much higher. electric light will close with it and no most likely to look like. more will be heard of it.” – Erasmus A variety of futuring techniques are Wilson, Oxford professor, 1878 Through visioning exercises used to predict the world of tomorrow. organizations decide which potential “The phonograph has no commercial Occasionally, a single event or discovery value at all.” – Thomas Edison, 1880s future scenarios are most desirable, and or even an idea changes everything. In they develop goals and the strategies those cases, human imagination is best “We are probably nearing the limit of all to achieve them. Just as professional we can know about astronomy.” suited to pierce the veil of the unknown. – Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1888 athletes see themselves powering through Change, however, is usually a fastball or executing a perfect dive, “Fooling around with alternating current an enterprise can collectively envision incremental. A line drawn from the past is just a waste of time. Nobody will use and through the present can be extended it, ever.” – Thomas Edison, 1889 the ideal customer experience, and into the future to point to a logical an institution can foresee realizing its “Heavier-than-air flying machines are expectation. More deterministic methods impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, President of ultimate objectives. To this end, activities of prognostication can be used to construct the Royal Society, 1895 such as surveys and polls are used to arrive forecasts on the extrapolated data points at a consensus. Consensus forecasting “Radio has no future.” – Lord Kelvin, of such trend lines. Trend analysis might former President of the Royal Society, can be conducted as casually as by a miss the unexpected, but it provides a 1897 roundtable discussion or through more foundation for making decisions. If you “The ordinary ‘horseless carriage’ is at formal techniques such as a methodical know the local department store has held present a luxury for the wealthy; and Delphi exercise. a “white sale” every Presidents Day for although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come For modern futurists new the past 10 years, you’re likely to put off into as common use as the bicycle.” technologies and algorithms are buying that set of Egyptian cotton sheets – Literary Digest, 1899 providing innovative tools for generating until February. “I must confess that my imagination more precise and reliable forecasts. With technology, no gauge for refuses to see any sort of submarine Computer simulations are often used tracking a trend is more popularly doing anything but suffocating its crew to model behaviors ranging from and floundering at sea.” – H.G. Wells, watched than Moore’s Law. What started 1901 interactions among quantum dots to cosmic expansion after the Big Bang. as a general observation about the pace “The horse is here to stay but the of growth in computing power has come automobile is only a novelty—a fad.” Some of the largest supercomputers have to set benchmarks for maintaining that – The president of the Michigan
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