At last – a narrative for Australia For many years we have debated where we are heading as a nation. We have been fortunate to have had a relatively prosperous and happy existence and tend to think that this is a direct result of our abundance of minerals and our agricultural production. While our prosperity has been dependent on resources it has only worked because we have been world class in our production techniques and the technology and scientific research that sits behind them. Make no mistake, Australia is not alone in having huge quantities of iron ore: Brazil has just as much and it is generally higher grade. We compete against the world for our economic success. But what of the future? We seem to have no clear narrative other than that as a small nation we must compete against the rest of the world. And the future can be frightening when one notes the way technology is utterly changing the landscape. Some of the wilder predictions suggest that by 2030, 80% of all jobs will be in firms or institutions that don’t exist now. Aviva Rutkin writing in the MIT Technology Journal1 on the jobs of the future suggested that around half of all currently existing jobs in the USA would be automated by 2030. The good news of course is that while technology is destroying jobs it is also creating jobs. Our narrative then is clear: we must pursue innovation through technology as the main contributor to our future prosperity and happiness. The new jobs generated will allow us to compete with the world. The demise of our car industry tells us what can happen if we don’t take on this challenge. This report is a narrative for the future because it is technology ‘that is central to human existence and is important for Australia, both now and in the future.’ One cannot sensibly think about Australia’s future without also thinking about Australia’s future technology. A few years ago, the Chief Scientist, Prof Ian Chubb commendably commissioned the learned academies to work together to investigate key challenges facing the country and to identify opportunities. Invoking the four academies covering the humanities, social sciences, science and engineering and technology was a brilliant step as any challenge of significance inevitably spans across the disciplines: technology is no exception as this report explains. The team generating the report was asked to consider (in my words) what technologies were the most promising for Australia to pursue. Where this report is extraordinary is that, in essence, it has suggested this is not the way to consider technologies for the future. No one has ever been successful in predicting where technology will lead, equally who will be the winners and who the losers. For every new technology there are inevitably winners and losers. What the report does do however is show how one can win in the technology race; how one can focus on changes and impacts and, most importantly, on interventions that help us deal with the unpredictability of technology. Uncertainty, innovation and risk are all tightly linked and all command or demand intervention. Just because we are uncertain of the future doesn’t mean that it is not clear that action is required: but what action? What is most needed is a problem oriented focus where we identify problems, do proper experiments, accept and deal with failure early and move on to try other experiments. Riding on the shoulders of others (shamelessly stealing but preferably with acknowledgement) is far more efficient than waiting till the path is clear. This is where we can look to our own experience that the more practice we get at something, the better we get at it. 1 http://www.technologyreview.com/view/519241/report-suggests-nearly-half-of-us-jobs-are- vulnerable-to-computerization/ Those people and companies and governments that try something new (i.e. innovate) get better and better at interventions and innovation while those that wait will lose out. The principle applies whether it is singing, skiing, sailing or using new technology to innovate, the more one tries, the better one gets. Interventions can succeed even in the face of the uncertain future. They include improving the focus on adaptability when educating people so when jobs come and go, people are better able to adapt. It seems less than efficient but putting ‘tinkering’ up there with other laudable educational goals is training for lifelong adaptability. The path from a student tinkering with technology, to an adult being able to adopt, adapt and exapt (use for new purposes) new technologies for good is a compelling one. There is some brilliant work done recently by the OECD on the specific topic of what drives uptake of low emission technologies in different countries.2 It deserves wide reading and is fully in line with the findings in this report. So what makes some countries better able to grasp the handle of new technology and innovate? It is not the base level of science and R&D, important and all as that is. Rest assured on this note that we already perform at the level of ‘average’ in Europe. The OECD goes on to suggest it is the level of innovativeness in a country. This is even more important than direct market incentives such as a mandated level of renewables or a carbon tax. I would not go so far as to suggest that our sole focus should be on technology, especially if at the expense of science and basic research and development since these are all so deeply intertwined. I would suggest however that given Australia sits at the bottom of the OECD ladder in terms of firms collaborating on innovation with higher education or public research institutions, we have to adopt some novel approaches to energise our capabilities in innovation. The Conclusion chapter in this report is aptly titled ‘Adapt or wither’. This report provides a narrative for the future and a clear path through the jungle of ever changing technology – terrifying in prospect if we get it wrong and exhilarating if we get it right. I’m convinced that wide readership of this report will change the way Australia thinks about technology and its future. Robin Batterham AO Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science, Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, Royal Academy of Engineering, Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences, National Academy of Engineering (US) and the Chinese Academy of Engineering. 2 Haščič, I. et al. (2010), “Climate Policy and Technological Innovation and Transfer: An Overview of Trends and Recent Empirical Results”, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 30, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5km33bnggcd0-en At last – a narrative for Australia .................................................................................................. ii Project aims .................................................................................................................................. i Summary and Findings ................................................................................................................. ii Answers to project questions ..................................................................................................... xii Q1. What are the key science and technology developments currently affecting Australia? ..... xii Q2. To what extent can new developments in science and technology, and their economic and social impact, be anticipated? ..........................................................................................................xiv Q3. What are the potential impacts of new and emerging technologies on Australia’s economic, security, social, cultural, and democratic systems? .......................................................................... xv Q4. What are the key determinants (in Australia now, and in the foreseeable future) of business and industry uptake of new technologies, and to what extent are these capable of influence by government policy? ......................................................................................................................... xviii Q5. What are the opportunities, barriers and determining factors for new or different uses of modern information and communication technologies in Australia? ............................................ xxiii Q6. How should all these questions be considered by Government in an ongoing fashion in the future? xxvi 1. Introducing technology ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Defining and categorising technology .................................................................................... 1 1.2 New technologies have a past ................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Australia’s social, cultural, democratic, security, economic and technology systems ............ 5 1.4 Method .................................................................................................................................... 6 2 The shaping of technology .................................................................................................... 9 2.1 The speed of technological change ....................................................................................... 11 2.2 The emergence, adoption and diffusion of technology ........................................................ 14 2.3 Evolution of technology......................................................................................................... 16 2.4 What is new about new technology?