The Modern History of Iraq THE MODERN HISTORY OF IRAQ Fourth Edition Phebe Marr Ibrahim al- Marashi California State University, San Marcos New York London First published 2017 by Westview Press Published 2018 by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Copyright © 2017 Taylor & Francis All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Every effort has been made to secure required permissions for all text, images, maps, and other art reprinted in this volume. A CIP catalog record for the print version of this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN 13: 978- 0-8133- 5006- 6 (pbk) Contents List of Illustrations, ix Preface, xi A Note on Transliteration, xvi 1. The Land and People of Modern Iraq 1 Legacy of the Past, 1 The Land, 5 The People, 9 2. The British Mandate, 1920–1932 17 The British Occupation and the Institutions of the Indian School, 18 The 1920 Revolt and Its Results, 19 The Kurdish Problem, 23 Oil and the Slow Pace of Development, 24 The Nationalist Movement: Composition and Outlook, 25 The 1930 Treaty and the End of the Mandate, 27 3. The Erosion of the British Legacy, 1932–1945 29 An Era of Communal and Tribal Rebellion, 1932–1936, 30 The Bakr Sidqi Coup, 1936, 34 Attempts to Liberalize and Their Failure, 37 The Army in Politics, 1937–1941, 39 The 1941 Coup, 42 The Second British Occupation and Its Legacy, 1941–1945, 44 4. The End of the Monarchy, 1946–1958 48 Further Attempts at Liberalization, 49 v vi Contents The 1948 Wathba and the War in Palestine, 51 Oil and Economic Development, 53 The Uprising of 1952, 55 The Accession of Faisal II, 58 Opposition and the Establishment, 61 The Hashimite Monarchy in Retrospect, 62 5. The Qasim Era, 1958–1963 64 The Military Revolt of 1958, 65 The Struggle for Power Between Qasim and Arif, 69 The Challenge of the Nationalists, 71 The Challenge of the Communists, 73 Liberalization Attempts and Their Failure, 75 The Social and Economic Revolution, 77 Erosion of National Unity, 80 Foreign Policy Failures, 84 The Qasim Regime in the Balance, 87 6. The Arab Nationalists in Power, 1963–1968 89 The Iraqi Ba‘th in 1963, 90 Ba‘th Failures, 93 The Arif Regime, 1963–1968, 97 The Coup of 17 July 1968, 104 The Revolutionary Decade, Assessed, 106 7. The Era of Ba‘th Party Rule, 1968–1979 109 Consolidation of Power, 1968–1973, 110 Ba‘th Foreign Policy: The Radical Phase, 1969–1973, 115 The One- Party State, 117 Relations with the Kurds, 120 The Nationalization of Oil, 124 Socialist Economic Development, 126 The Social Transformation, 130 Iraq’s Foreign Policy: The Pragmatic Phase, 1975–1980, 131 Iraq’s New Ideological Stand, 132 Opposition to the Regime, 133 The Impact of the Iranian Revolution, 136 The Ba‘th: The End of Its First Decade, 137 Contents vii 8. The Saddam Husain Regime, 1979–1989 139 Saddam as President, 140 The Outbreak of War with Iran, 142 The Course of the War, 145 The War’s Impact on Foreign Policy, 151 The War’s Impact on National Cohesion, 154 Economic and Social Effects of the War, 158 The War’s Effect on Politics and the Military, 164 The Aftermath of the War, 166 Saddam’s First Decade, 167 9. The Saddam Husain Regime, 1990–2003 169 The Occupation of Kuwait: Causes and Motivations, 170 Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait and Its Impact, 172 The Gulf War, 17 January–28 February 1991, 177 The Intifada of March 1991, 180 Regime Survival and Reorganization, 185 The Imposition of Foreign Control, 186 Regime Consolidation and Its Limits, 191 Changes in Regime Ideology, 193 The Kurds in the North, 194 The Shi‘a in the South, 197 Opposition from Abroad, 199 A Decade of Stagnation, 202 10. The US Attempt at Nation- Building in Iraq, 2003–2006 203 Occupation of Iraq, 204 Bremer and the CPA: Direct Rule and an Attempt at Nation- Building, 210 Opposition to the Occupation, 216 The 15 November Agreement: Changes in US Plans, 220 The IIG of Ayad Allawi, June 2004–May 2005, 224 The Elections of 2005: The Emergence of the “New” Iraq, 227 The Sectarian Civil War in Baghdad, 2006–2007, 236 11. The Stabilization and Destabilization of Iraq Under Maliki, 2007–2014 240 The Subsiding of the 2006 Civil War, 241 Kurdish Political and Economic Development, 245 viii Contents Maliki’s Consolidation of Power, 2007–2009, 252 Relations with the United States: The Status of Forces Agreement, 257 The Local and Regional Elections of 2009, 260 Maliki and the National Scene in Baghdad, 265 The Parties and Contenders of the 2010 Election, 267 The 2010 Election: Results and Aftermath, 271 Maliki’s Second Term: 2010–2014, 277 The 2014 Elections and the Post- Election Stalemate, 285 12. Iraq and the Challenge of the Islamic State, 2014–2016 287 The Abbadi Government, 288 The Islamic State’s Conquest, 289 The Birth and Consolidation of the Islamic State, 293 The Counteroffensive Against the Islamic State, 298 Transnational Terrorism, 305 Abbadi’s Attempts to Reform, 305 The Future of a Post- Islamic State Iraq, 309 13. Economic, Social, and Cultural Change in Post- 2003 Iraq 312 Development of the Oil Sector, 312 Economic Development, 316 Demographic Change, 322 Intellectual and Cultural Change, 328 Assessing Iraq’s Economic, Social, and Cultural Changes, 339 Epilogue: The Future of Iraq 341 Appendix: Tables, 345 Notes, 352 Glossary, 403 Political Personalities, 411 Bibliography, 419 Index, 439 List of Illustrations Figures 1.1 Middle East: Iraq, xvii 1.2 Iraq, 7 1.3 Ethnoreligious Groups in Iraq, 11 2.1 Iraq’s Provinces, 1958, 22 7.1 Oil Fields, Pipelines, and Ports, 1979, 125 11.1 Disputed Territories Claimed by the KRG, 250 11.2 Iraq’s Provinces in 2009, 262 12.1 ISIS’s Conquests in Iraq in the Summer of 2014, 292 12.2 Control of Iraq and Syria by ISIS and other factions, as of August 2016, 310 Tables 4.1 Iraqi Oil Fields, 1960, 54 4.2 Size of Industrial Establishments, 1960, 56 4.3 College Graduates, 1958, 57 7.1 Oil as a Percentage of Iraq’s Gross Domestic Product, 1960–1979, 126 7.2 Industrial Establishments and Employees, 1962–1980, 129 7.3 Civilian Government Employees, 1952–1990, 131 9.1 Growth of GDP, Population, and GDP per Capita, 1999–2002, 190 9.2 Crude Oil Production and Export, 1976–2001, 190 13.1 Crude Oil Production and Export, 2001–2014, 317 13.2 Growth of GDP, Population, and GDP Per Capita, 2005–2015, 318 A.1 Distribution of Iraq’s Population by Region, 1977–2002, 345 A.2 Ethnic and Sectarian Background of Political Leaders, 1948–2006, 346 ix x List of Illustrations A.3 Employment of the Population by Economic Sector, 1967–1987, 347 A.4 Growth of Education, 1958–1994, 348 A.5 Comparative Distribution of Landholdings, 1958 and 1973, 349 A.6 Elections 2005–2014: Seats Won in the Council of Representatives, 350 Preface Although Iraq has now been a modern state—of modest size—for almost a cen- tury, few countries have had such a potentially promising future, yet undergone such a turbulent history, or, in recent years, been the focus of such world atten- tion. Wars, sanctions, occupation, and brutal civil strife have brought abrupt, severe, and often disabling change and now, with the incursion of an Islamic terrorist group, the Islamic State, have almost brought the state to the brink of collapse. These events have made it difficult to chart Iraq’s future path and to relate these changes to Iraq’s enduring continuities. Yet the continuities will remain. Iraq has had a remarkably rich and varied history. Even before recent headlines made Iraq a household word in the West, it was difficult to do justice to the complexity of Iraq’s modern history and to explain the impact of rapid change and modernization on a society going back six millennia. Events since 2003, with their profound discontinuities and uncertainties, have now made this task more challenging, but also more urgent. Although much more is now known (but possibly misunderstood) about contemporary Iraq, even more re- mains opaque. This revision will not seek to provide answers to the future but rather to identify the forces at work, particularly since 2003, the trends and directions in evidence, and to relate them to Iraq’s past history since its founding as a state in 1920. This book is not meant to be an exhaustive and detailed history of modern Iraq. My aim instead has been to present a clear, readable one- volume account of the emergence of modern Iraq and the forces that shaped it. To understand how and why Iraq has reached this point in the context of a longer historical per- spective, I have drawn extensively on many perceptive monographs and studies on modern Iraq. I have tried to include enough general interpretation of events to make the country and its people understandable and enough detail to give color to the events described.