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London Borough of Enfield 2019 Childcare Sufficiently Demographic

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London Borough of Enfield 2019 Childcare Sufficiently Demographic London Borough of Enfield 2019 Childcare Sufficiency Demographic and Socio-Economic updated paper Key Demographic Factors affecting the Enfield locality childcare market The following paper presents an analysis – as of autumn 2019 – which focuses on how demographic and socio-economic factors may continue to affect forthcoming localised demand for childcare places, and the three types of funded early years entitlements. The data sets out relevant metrics aligned to the borough’s 21 wards and its four planning areas – including: • 1.1 Existing 0 – 14 years populations and projections/forecasts • 1.2 Birth rates since 2016 in order to help inform forthcoming potential (demographic) demand for 30 hours childcare offer provision • 1.3 Migration data • 1.4 Incidence of working families (that are eligible to take-up the 30 hours childcare offer) and average household incomes • 1.5 Incidence of children and young people from low income families and disadvantaged backgrounds • 1.6 Incidence of children with SEND • 1.7 Incidence of major new housing developments The objective of the following narrative and analysis is to consider the extent to which childcare planners within the borough may need to (continue to) prioritise their abilities to help instigate/stimulate further funded childcare places/provision within specific/targeted geographical localities. 1.1 Existing and forecast population of children and young people resident in the London Borough of Enfield 1.1.1 A 2018 Strategy and Approach to Delivering Pupil Places1 paper published by Enfield Council reported that: • There was evidence of inward and outward migration of families in 2017 • In terms of school places delivery there is a need to establish two additional permanent forms of primary entry in the South West Sub Local Authority, from September 2022 1 https://governance.enfield.gov.uk/documents/s68221/CabinetReportSchoolExpProgFinal190218.pdf 2 1.1.2 Table 1 indicates the projected demand for primary school places (all seven Year groups) as published by the GLA in March 2018, incorporating the period 2019 – 2025. Table 1 - Projected demand for primary school places within the London Borough of Enfield (GLA March 2018) 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Number (Projected (Projected (Projected (Projected (Projected (Projected increase Ward PAN) PAN) PAN) PAN) PAN) PAN) 2019 - 2025 Bowes 1,210 1,222 1,227 1,229 1,230 1,231 +21 Bush Hill Park 1,252 1,261 1,265 1,261 1,255 1,264 +12 Chase 1,520 1,504 1,475 1,438 1,416 1,393 -127 Cockfosters 1,154 1,147 1,165 1,190 1,218 1,230 +76 Edmonton Green 2,400 2,377 2,365 2,344 2,331 2,329 -71 Enfield Highway 2,021 2,003 1,963 1,902 1,877 1,852 -169 Enfield Lock 2,247 2,195 2,162 2,133 2,113 2,104 -143 Grange 1,121 1,120 1,113 1,111 1,108 1,111 -10 Haselbury 2,144 2,107 2,076 2,045 2,016 2,003 -141 Highlands 1,164 1,178 1,189 1,195 1,207 1,207 +43 Jubilee 1,631 1,605 1,581 1,557 1,539 1,527 +104 Lower Edmonton 2,228 2,211 2,199 2,176 2,160 2,150 -78 Palmers Green 1,412 1,421 1,429 1,437 1,455 1,466 +54 Ponders End 2,064 2,033 2,006 1,978 1,962 1,962 -102 Southbury 1,912 1,871 1,838 1,790 1,756 1,720 -192 -32 Southgate 1,530 1,527 1,524 1,514 1,507 1,498 Southgate Green 1,255 1,264 1,273 1,282 1,292 1,307 +52 Town 1,511 1,518 1,513 1,490 1,484 1,472 -39 Turkey Street 1,832 1,793 1,753 1,717 1,693 1,662 -170 Upper Edmonton 2,290 2,283 2,270 2,245 2,225 2,227 -63 Winchmore Hill 1,157 1,143 1,142 1,146 1,148 1,155 -2 Table 1 indicates that the South West Sub Local Authority and a certain number of its wards will account for a particular increase in demand for primary school places up to the year 2025, reinforcing the point 1.1.1 above. 3 Table 2 indicates the number of children estimated to be resident in each of the London Borough of Enfield’s 21 wards – as per ONS estimates for 2017 – aligned to the following age groups: • Under 2 years • 2 years • 3 – 4 years Table 2 - Approximate number of children and young people aged 0 – 4 years resident in each of the London Borough Enfield’s 21 wards (source: ONS 2019 – updated figures from 2018 CSA) Ward Number % of Number % of Number % of of Borough’s of Borough’s of Borough’s Resident Resident Resident Resident Resident Resident 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 year 2 year 3 - 4 3 - 4 year olds year olds olds olds year olds Year olds North East Sub-Local Authority Area Enfield Highway 532 5.6% 302 6% 563 5.7% Enfield Lock 628 6.5% 323 6.5% 648 6.6% Ponders End 491 5.1% 259 5.2% 541 5.5% Southbury 510 5.3% 267 5.9% 550 5.6% Southgate 436 4.5% 229 4.6% 447 4.5% Turkey Street 471 4.9% 234 4.7% 497 5% Planning Area Totals 3,068 31.9% 1,614 27.5% 3,246 28.4% North West Sub-Local Authority Area Chase 378 3.9% 243 4.9% 439 4.9% Highlands 301 3.1% 148 2.9% 287 2.9% Town 424 4.4% 200 4% 376 3.8% Planning Area Totals 1,103 11.4% 591 8.2% 1,102 11.6% South East Sub-Local Authority Area Edmonton Green 643 6.7% 345 6.9% 657 6.7% Haselbury 520 5.4% 256 5.1% 528 5.4% Jubilee 464 4.8% 255 5.1% 446 4.5% Lower Edmonton 549 5.7% 301 6% 597 6.1% Upper Edmonton 613 6.4% 335 6.7% 618 6.3% Planning Area Totals 2,789 29% 1,493 24.4% 2,846 29% South West Sub-Local Authority Area Bowes 412 4.3% 235 4.7% 381 3.8% Bush Hill Park 391 4.1% 174 3.5% 367 3.7% Cockfosters 324 3.9% 142 2.8% 350 3.6% Grange 317 3.3% 163 3.2% 357 3.6% Palmers Green 427 4.7% 214 4.3% 458 4.7% Southgate Green 353 3.7% 155 3.1% 337 3.4% Winchmore Hill 381 3.9% 179 3.6% 352 3.6% Planning Area Totals 2,605 27.9% 1,262 25.4% 2,602 26.5% Total Enfield 9,565 100% 4,960 100% 9,796 100% 4 Table 2 indicates that the highest number of under 2 year olds are evidently resident (in order of frequency) in the following three wards: 1. Edmonton Green ward 2. Enfield Lock ward 3. Upper Edmonton ward (which borders Edmonton Green) Table 2 indicates that the highest number of 2 year olds are evidently resident (in order of frequency) in the following three wards (in the Eastern vicinity of the locality): 1. Edmonton Green ward 2. Enfield Lock ward 3. Enfield Highway ward Table 2 also indicates that the highest number of 3 – 4 year olds are evidently resident (in order of frequency) in the following three wards: 1. Edmonton Green ward 2. Enfield Lock ward 3. Upper Edmonton ward (which borders Edmonton Green) Table 3 below indicates the number of children estimated to be resident in each of the London Borough of Enfield’s 21 wards aligned to the following age groups: 5 - 7 years; 8 – 11 years; 12 – 14 years. Table 3 - Approximate number of children and young people aged 5 – 14 years resident in each of the London Borough Enfield’s 21 wards (source: ONS 2018 – updated figures from 2018 CSA) Number of % of Number of % of Number of % of Ward Resident Borough’s Resident Borough’s Resident Borough’s 5 - 7 Resident 8 - 11 year Resident 12 - 14 Resident year olds 5 - 7 olds 8 -11 year olds 12 - 14 year olds Year olds year olds North East Sub-Local Authority Area Enfield Highway 853 5.6% 1,201 6.1% 812 6.1% Enfield Lock 1,006 6.6% 1,340 6.8% 858 6.4% Ponders End 810 5.3% 1,108 5.6% 758 5.7% Southbury 796 5.2% 984 5% 680 5.1% Southgate 670 4.3% 892 4.5% 613 4.6% Turkey Street 817 5.3% 1,103 5.6% 762 5.7% Planning Area Totals 4,952 32.3% 6,628 29.1% 4,483 33.6% North West Sub-Local Authority Area Chase 721 4.7% 825 4.2% 501 3.8% Highlands 497 3.2% 590 3% 448 3.4% Town 681 4.4% 795 4% 524 3.9% Planning Area Totals 1,899 12.3% 2,210 11.2% 1,473 11.1% South East Sub-Local Authority Area Edmonton Green 1,108 7.2% 1,280 6.5% 894 6.7% Haselbury 807 5.2% 1,140 5.8% 785 5.9% Jubilee 710 4.6% 968 4.9% 682 5.1% Lower Edmonton 1,103 7.2% 1,326 6.8% 899 6.8% Upper Edmonton 1,002 6.5% 1,355 6.9% 977 7.3% Planning Area Totals 4,730 30.7% 6,069 30.9% 4,237 40% 5 South West Sub-Local Authority Area Bowes 569 3.7% 696 3.5% 441 3.3% Bush Hill Park 508 3.3% 613 3.1% 439 3.3% Cockfosters 505 3.3% 719 3.6% 476 3.6% Grange 507 3.3% 652 3.3% 440 3.3% Palmers Green 603 3.9% 674 3.4% 421 3.2% Southgate Green 523 3.4% 649 3.3% 424 3.3% Winchmore Hill 501 3.3% 618 3.1% 423 3.2% Planning Area Totals 3,716 24.2% 4,612 23.6% 3,064 23.1% Total Enfield 15,297 100% 19,519 100% 13,257 100% Table 3 indicates that the highest number of 5 – 7 year olds are evidently resident (in order of frequency) in the following three wards: 1.
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