Employment & Regeneration in LB Enfield

September 2015

DRAFT 1 Introduction • LB Enfield and Enfield Transport Users Group (ETUG) have produced a report suggesting some large scale alterations to the bus network. One of the objectives of the report is to meet the demands of the borough’s housing and regeneration aspirations.

• TfL have already completed a study of access to health services owing to a re-configuration of services between Chase Farm, North and Barnet General Hospital and shared this with LB Enfield.

• TfL and LB Enfield have now agreed to a further study to explore the impact of committed development and new employment on bus services in the borough as a second phase of work.

2 DRAFT

Aims

This study will aim to:

•Asses the impact of new housing, employment and background growth on the current network and travel patterns.

•Highlight existing shortfalls of the current network.

•Propose ideas for improving the network, including serving new Developments.

3 DRAFT Approach to Study • Where do Enfield residents travel to and from to get to work?

• To what extent does the coverage of the bus network match those travel patterns?

• How much do people use the bus to access Enfield’s key employment areas and to what extent is the local job market expected to grow?

• What are the weaknesses in bus service provision to key employment areas and how might this be improved?

• What is the expected growth in demand over the next 10 years and where are the key areas of growth?

• What short and long term resourcing and enhancements are required to support and facilitate growth in Enfield?

4 DRAFT Methodology

•Plot census, passenger survey and committed development data by electoral ward

•Overlay key bus routes

•Analyse existing and future capacity requirements

•Analyse passenger travel patterns and trip generation from key developments and forecast demand

•Identify key issues

•Develop service planning ideas

5 DRAFT Population Growth

According to Census data LB Enfield experienced a 14.2% increase in population between 2001 and 2011 from 273,600 to 312,500. Further population projections predict that this is estimated have to increased to 324,000 by the end of 2015.

The majority of this growth has been observed to the east of the borough where most activity has historically taken place, and is expected to remain the key growth area within the borough. Population growth in the west of the borough has been noticeably less dramatic but has occurred within the , Haselbury, Bowes and Southgate wards.

Map 1: 2011 -2015 est. population growth by ward

6 DRAFT Travel to Work

2011 Travel to Work by Bus – Proportion of trips 2001 to 2011 Travel to Work by Bus - Increase by Ward 21% to 27% 6% to 8% 15% to 21% 4% to 6% 13% to 15% 3% to 4% 2% to 3% 7% to 13% 1% to 2% 6% to 7% 0% to 1% High Frequency services High Frequency services Low Frequency services Low Frequency services

Map 2: 2011 Travel to Work (bus commuter journeys) by Ward Map 3: 2001-2011 Percentage increase in Travel to Work (by bus) data by Ward

Data from the 2011 Census, Travel-to-Work data shows a This can be observed in the density of the bus network with up to 50 significantly higher bus mode share within the Edmonton area as buses in both directions between and Edmonton well as the Jubilee, Ponders End and wards. These Green along the Herford Road corridor. wards have also experienced the highest increases between 2001 and 2011. Of which the biggest increase has been experienced in Moderate increases in bus mode share are also evident in the Edmonton Green ward where bus mode share has increased by 8% Palmers Green, Bowes, and Southgate areas in south-west Enfield. from 19% to 27%.

7 DRAFT Access to Employment

Enfield’s core employment areas are separated between industrial (logistics, wholesale, manufacturing and construction) in north-east Enfield (primarily ) and a mix of industrial and retail to the south of Ponders End, otherwise known as the Central Leeside area which alone employs more than 91,000 people.

The Central Leeside Area Action Plan proposes an additional 4,000 jobs south of Ponders End, of which 3,000 are expected to be created through the development, whilst the North-East Enfield Area Action Plan aims to improve existing employment areas and introduce a more diverse mix of employment opportunities. Further data is Key

required to fully gauge and quantify the intermediate Weekday bus trips

and long term job creation potential of north-east High Frequency services

Enfield including the added value of the North Low Frequency services Gateway Access package (NGAP). Key Employment areas There are currently more than 9,000 trips to and from Enfield Employment area. Most of which are Map 4: Bus trips to/and from key employment areas using BODs data

facilitated by the 34, 192 and 444 to the south-east Weekday trips to/from Route Total Day trips % employment areas (Angel Road) with the 491 Employment area serving Brimsdown. This constitutes for 20% of all 34 2915 22286 13% weekday trips made on these routes. 192 3505 9071 39% 444 946 7402 13% 491 1811 6313 29% Total 9177 45072 20%

8 DRAFT Access to Employment

Key

Route 192 stop (Hail & Ride) Routes 34 & 444 stops

Map 5: Survey area Key Routes 34 & 444 pax

Route 192 pax

High Frequency services

Low Frequency services

Key Employment areas

Map 6: Key places of employment for bus users based on Passenger Data surveys

An informal weekday survey conducted in September 2014 at Nearly all recorded 34 and 444 passengers worked within the Angel Montagu Road, Conduit Lane (route 192) and on the North Circular area; predominantly within retail or industrial estates within the (routes 34 and 444). More than 200 passengers participated. Meridian Water site, and some working north of the site at Coca Cola, Waste Eco Park or other industrial or trade services. Survey results indicated that the majority of route 192 passengers Trips were evenly distributed across the morning and afternoon boarding or alighting in the Edmonton Angel area to get to work periods. were travelling to Hale, of which more than half of passengers interchanged at Tottenham Hale station to commute while the rest worked within the Hale Retail Park.

9 DRAFT Network Coverage and Limitations

The existing network offers comprehensive coverage to the east of Enfield from most parts of the borough, with most routes providing a high frequency service.

Passenger survey data shows approximately a third of all weekday trips on east-west routes that serve the borough are made to east Enfield and virtually half of all trips from the centre of the borough are made to the Edmonton area.

Direct bus access to key employment areas from the west of Enfield are generally poor, particularly to the Lower Edmonton and Jubilee wards.

To the north direct services to the Brimsdown area (routes 121, 307 and 313) may not provide full access to employment due to physical barriers such as the Greater Anglia Line (level crossings) and long walking distances to employment along Mollison Avenue and Meridian Way. Map 7: Direct east/west links However, there are good interchange opportunities at There are also no direct links from the Grange, Enfield Town, Southbury Road, Edmonton Green and , and Haselbury wards Silver Street, which routes 121, 307, 313 and 444 serve to the east and centre of the borough. making access to the north-east and south-east employment areas available within one bus interchange .

10 DRAFT Committed Development

More than 9,000 residential units are expected to come forward within the next 10-15 years. Of which, at least 5,000 units are proposed as part of the Meridian Water Masterplan. The second largest development in Chase Farm at 500 residential units.

Other development includes Chase Farm site location Highmead in at

118 units, the Alma Estate, Electric Quarter at Ponders End which is expected to provide 400 residential units, a large spread of Future Development & Growth- Increase by Ward smaller residential dwellings over School expansions the North Circular in SW Enfield Housing development 1,000-5,000 units

(including Ladderswood Estate).

Housing development 500-1,000 units Meridian Water site location

Housing development 100-500 units

Housing development 50-100 units

Housing development less than 50 units

High Frequency services

Low Frequency services

Map 8: Committed housing development and school expansions in LB Enfield

11 DRAFT Key Development Site - Meridian Water

A total of around to 5,000 new homes and 3,000 new jobs are expected within the Meridian Water Masterplan with associated social and community infrastructure.

The existing bus network is limited and does not provide penetration through the Masterplan area, especially to the east. The surrounding area is currently served by routes 34, 192, 341 & 444.

Route 192 is at capacity arriving at Tottenham Hale from the north in the morning peak. Therefore any additional demand from Meridian Water towards Tottenham Hale will require routes 34 and 444 to provide east/west links along the north circular. However neither route is easily accessible from the south. If one or both routes were re-routed through the Masterplan area it would provide east/west connections to , , Turnpike Lane and .

Map 9: Meridian Water Masterplan area and surrounding neighbourhoods

12 DRAFT Key Development Site - Meridian Water

Maps 10 & 11: Indicative bus routeings from the Meridian Water masterplan

The Meridian Water Masterplan identifies the need for bus accessible by bus and are currently investigating the possibility services to penetrate the entirety of the development site within of building a bus accessible bridge across the . accessible walking distance (400m), as well as the required infrastructure such as bus accessible bridges, roads, kerb Without this, east-west services (routes 34 & 444) would have heights and stand space. to double run into the site via Montagu Road, Conduit Lane and Meridian Way. As a consequence a significant proportion of LB Enfield have made suggestions on how the development the proposed housing (approx 1,000 dwellings in the ‘Meridian site could be served by existing routes if the site were fully East’ neighbourhood) would be outside of accessible walking distance from the bus network.

13 DRAFT Key Development Site - Meridian Water Trip Generation Trip Distribution

Existing usage of transport links, interchange points and survey Figures indicate that more than 2,200 trips to and from the site data have been used to broadly estimate future trip patterns. are expected once fully occupied in the AM peak (between Estimates show that nearly two-thirds of passengers are 0800 and 0900) for all specified journey purposes with buses expected to travel southbound, of which the majority are likely still being the principle mode of transport. In the morning peak to interchange at Tottenham Hale as the strongest local hour a total of nearly 1,700 trips are forecast to be generated transport hub with a key retail area. The remaining trips are from the development, around 360 of which are expected expected to be generated from Tottenham High Road based on towards Tottenham Hale, which is equivalent to 5 bph. school, leisure and other off-peak journey purposes.

A considerable number of trips are expected from the Upper Edmonton, Edmonton Green and other residential areas along the North Circular with Edmonton Green likely to remain a key transport hub for commuters as well as the nearest accessible town centre.

Increased numbers of passengers to/from the Angel/Silver Street area are expected to take advantage of the increased retail and job provision with the site.

Bus Meridian Water Site Trip Generation AM Peak PM Peak Daily In Out In Out In Out Residential 108 290 351 245 2269 2651 Employment 198 28 29 197 1951 1796 Secondary Staff 49 12 2 5 83 82 Secondary School Pupils 1014 236 43 96 1739 1723 College Staff 146 5 27 65 627 622 College students 138 5 25 62 604 599 Total 1653 576 477 670 7273 7473 Map 12: Predicted trip distribution for Meridian Water

14 DRAFT Key Development Site - Meridian Water

Part of the Masterplan for Meridian Water includes plans to relocate and improve Angel Road Station (and renaming it Meridian Water Station) to help serve the new development area better.

A new station entrance is to be located south of the North Circular to reduce the distance between Meridian Water and rail services.

The plans include an improved interchange with buses on Watermead Way and to introduce a new signalised pedestrian crossing to improve accessibility into Glover Drive.

Map 14: Indicative improvement plans for Angel Road (Meridian Water) Station

15 DRAFT Key Development Site - Chase Farm

The Chase Farm development comprises of up to 500 residential units and a primary school to the north of Chase Farm hospital. The development area is served by routes 313, W8 & W9 in the north-west of the borough.

A critical assessment of the development’s impact on demand was undertaken as part of phase 1 of the Enfield Review (Access to Health Services) which concluded that the additional demand could be Map 15: Chase Farm Development area absorbed by the existing bus network.

However, LB Enfield have expressed a desire to improve links to the hospital from NE Enfield (i.e. Turkey Street and ). Therefore, the development presents the opportunity to provide new links for existing and new passengers. 16 DRAFT Demand forecasts

Although the two key areas of growth in the borough are Meridian Water and Chase Farm some demand modelling has been undertaken to understand demand growth using Railplan, 2021.

With the exception Chase Farm and Meridian Water the areas of note where demand is forecast to increase are:

•Upper Edmonton 11% increase in demand by 2021. •Edmonton Green 7% increase in demand by 2021. •Ponders End 7% increase in demand by 2021.

Most routes in these locations current have sufficient existing capacity to accomodate these levels of increased demand however some frequency adjustments could be required. Therefore with the exception of Meridian Water and perhaps Chase Farm there is no significant growth expected that would require significant restructuring of services.

Further Railplan analysis has been undertaken of 2031 scenarios, which again do not show much in the way of large increases in demand. The arrival of 2 will have significant impact on demand in Enfield and planning work for this will happen in the future, separate to this study.

17 DRAFT Service Planning - Key Issues

1. Relatively weak links between NE of Borough and Chase Farm. 2. No direct link between Brimsdown/Mollison Avenue and Enfield Town and SW of borough. 3. Requirement to provide additional capacity & connectivity at Meridian Water, while maintaining reliability. 4. Few other areas of significant growth.

18 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts - Meridian Water

New route between Meridian Water and Tottenham Hale at 6 bph Estimated Cost: £1,250,000 pa

Benefits •New Links to Meridian Water to Tottenham Hale. •Provides required capacity to meet forecast new demand between Meridian Water and Tottenham Hale. •More efficient and breaks no links compared to running route 192 into Meridian Water at a higher frequency.

Disbenefits •New route would be short in length, not a full route. •Provides few other unique links.

Notes •Progress further. Map 18: New route •Requires 2 stand spaces at Meridian Water.

19 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts - Meridian Water

Route 341 extension to Meridian Water Estimated Cost: £250,000 pa

Benefits •New Links to Meridian Water to Tottenham Green. •Represents good value for money, affordable.

Disbenefits •May make route 341 too long to operate reliably. •Therefore may require restructuring in .

Notes •Progress further. •Requires 2 stand spaces at Meridian Water. •May require splitting route 341 due to length.

Map 19: Route 341 extension

20 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts - Meridian Water

Route 444 diversion through Meridian Water Estimated Cost: £250,000 pa

Benefits •Creates new east/west links to Meridian Water. •Represents good value for money and is affordable. •Breaks far less freehold links than route 34 diversion (3,000 broken links).

Disbenefits •Breaks 845 (11%) freehold links on route 444. •Disbenefits through passengers with longer journey times.

Notes •Progress further.

Map 20: Route 444 diversion through Meridian Water

21 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts - Meridian Water Route W8 diversion to Meridian Water and W6 extension to Estimated Cost: £1,100,000 pa

Benefits •New Links to Meridian Water from Edmonton Green. •Route W6 retains links to Picketts Lock from Edmonton Green. •Provides better coverage of Meridian Way.

Disbenefits •Expensive, may not provide value for money unless supported by effective bus priority. •Requires 1,250 new trips to meet our criteria.

Notes •Progress further. Map 21: Route s W6 and W8 scheme •Requires 2 stand spaces at Meridian Water.

*Exact routeing between Edmonton Green and •Route W6 could be extended further to Brimsdown if Meridian Water dependant on roads available significant additional development comes forward in the future.

•Route W8 could be extended further to Walthamstow to provide links to the east. (costs an extra £1,250,000 pa)

22 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts - Meridian Water

Map 23: Indicative bus routeings for Meridian Water

23 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts – Chase Farm

Route 191 split: Brimsdown to Enfield Town and Chase Farm Hospital to Edmonton Green Estimated Cost: £600,000 pa

Benefits: •Improves route 191 resilience to traffic conditions. •Provides higher frequency between Chase Farm and Enfield Town. •Creates new links between Ponders End and Chase Farm.

Disbenefits: •Breaks 576 (4%) freehold links. •Does not provide improved links to NE Enfield from Chase Farm. •Would not generate sufficient demand to justify Map 24: Route 191 split high expenditure. Requires an additional 1,600 new trips to meet our benefit to net cost criteria.

Notes •Do not progress further

24 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts – SW to NE links Route 377 extension to Brimsdown Estimated Cost: £200,000 pa

Benefits •New Links from high density residential area (Bush Hill Park) to Brimsdown. •Provides new links to growing employment area.

Disbenefits •Currently insufficient trips to justify the expenditure. •Low frequency route, limited benefits. •No Sunday service.

Notes •Progress further. Map 25: Route 377 extension •Would require additional 1 bus stand at Brimsdown.

25 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts – SW to NE links Route 307/377 scheme: Divert route 307 from Green Street to Mollison Avenue/Brimsdown via Nags Head Road. Extend route 377 to Green Street via Hertford Road & Green Street Estimated Cost: £400,000 pa

Benefits •New Links through centre of Enfield to Brimsdown at high frequency (6bph). •Provides new links to growing employment area.

Disbenefits •Breaks 1,670 (13%) freehold links. •Disbenefits route 307 passengers on Green Street with lower frequency and loss of Sunday service.

Map 25: Routes 307 and 377 scheme Notes •Do not progress further. •Would not be worthwhile, even with significant new development in Brimsdown.

26 DRAFT Service Planning Concepts – Potential schemes

Employment and regeneration

Meridian Water: •New route between Tottenham Hale and Meridian Water. Estimated cost: £1,250,000 pa •Re-route the 444 via Meridian Water. Estimated cost £250,000 pa •Extend route 341 to Meridian Water. Estimated cost £250,000 pa •Extend route W8 to Meridian Water and extend route W6 to Picketts Lock. Estimated cost £1,100,000 pa

Other: •Route 377 extension to Brimsdown. Estimated Cost £200,000 pa •Route 491 - Frequency increase to 5 bph. Estimated cost £348,800 pa (Identified as part of access to Hospitals work).

Access to Hospitals

•Route W10 - Upgrade to 2 bph Mon-Sat Extend to NMH. Estimated cost £738,000 pa

27 DRAFT 1.Additional stand space will be necessary to introduce schemes such as the extension of route W10. Bus Infrastructure • Additional bus priority, bus stands and bus stops will be required to facilitate changes to the bus network to ensure schemes can be progressed. • Significant additional stand space will be necessary to introduce schemes such as those identified at Meridian Water. E.g route 341 extension. • List of schemes and concepts below have been identified so far as part of the Priority Scheme Identification Process:

28 DRAFT Way Forward • Further feasibility work required and schemes need to be worked up in more detail. Final proposed schemes would be subject to detailed cost benefit evaluations, funding and standard implementation processes e.g. formal consultation. • Further engagement with appropriate stakeholders required, if/when schemes are proposed. • All concepts identified are reliant on development coming forward and implementation would be dependent upon the drivers for change materialising. • LB Enfield/ETUG suggestions relating to level crossings be considered further, as part of ongoing engagement between TfL and Network Rail, once firm proposals for four-tracking the West Anglia Main Line are confirmed. • Crossrail 2 is forecast to have significant impact on demand. This is likely to be the driver for large-scale changes, similar to the scale of those suggested by LB Enfield and ETUG. • Complementary infrastructure essential and requires LB Enfield buy-in. – Meridian Water

29 DRAFT www.tfl.gov.uk

18 DRAFT