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Employment & Regeneration in LB Enfield

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Employment & Regeneration in LB Enfield Employment & Regeneration in LB Enfield September 2015 DRAFT 1 Introduction • LB Enfield and Enfield Transport Users Group (ETUG) have produced a report suggesting some large scale alterations to the bus network. One of the objectives of the report is to meet the demands of the borough’s housing and regeneration aspirations. • TfL have already completed a study of access to health services owing to a re-configuration of services between Chase Farm, North Middlesex and Barnet General Hospital and shared this with LB Enfield. • TfL and LB Enfield have now agreed to a further study to explore the impact of committed development and new employment on bus services in the borough as a second phase of work. 2 DRAFT Aims This study will aim to: •Asses the impact of new housing, employment and background growth on the current network and travel patterns. •Highlight existing shortfalls of the current network. •Propose ideas for improving the network, including serving new Developments. 3 DRAFT Approach to Study • Where do Enfield residents travel to and from to get to work? • To what extent does the coverage of the bus network match those travel patterns? • How much do people use the bus to access Enfield’s key employment areas and to what extent is the local job market expected to grow? • What are the weaknesses in bus service provision to key employment areas and how might this be improved? • What is the expected growth in demand over the next 10 years and where are the key areas of growth? • What short and long term resourcing and enhancements are required to support and facilitate growth in Enfield? 4 DRAFT Methodology •Plot census, passenger survey and committed development data by electoral ward •Overlay key bus routes •Analyse existing and future capacity requirements •Analyse passenger travel patterns and trip generation from key developments and forecast demand •Identify key issues •Develop service planning ideas 5 DRAFT Population Growth According to Census data LB Enfield experienced a 14.2% increase in population between 2001 and 2011 from 273,600 to 312,500. Further population projections predict that this is estimated have to increased to 324,000 by the end of 2015. The majority of this growth has been observed to the east of the borough where most activity has historically taken place, and is expected to remain the key growth area within the borough. Population growth in the west of the borough has been noticeably less dramatic but has occurred within the Palmers Green, Haselbury, Bowes and Southgate wards. Map 1: 2011 -2015 est. population growth by ward 6 DRAFT Travel to Work 2011 Travel to Work by Bus – Proportion of trips 2001 to 2011 Travel to Work by Bus - Increase by Ward 21% to 27% 6% to 8% 15% to 21% 4% to 6% 13% to 15% 3% to 4% 2% to 3% 7% to 13% 1% to 2% 6% to 7% 0% to 1% High Frequency services High Frequency services Low Frequency services Low Frequency services Map 2: 2011 Travel to Work (bus commuter journeys) by Ward Map 3: 2001-2011 Percentage increase in Travel to Work (by bus) data by Ward Data from the 2011 Census, Travel-to-Work data shows a This can be observed in the density of the bus network with up to 50 significantly higher bus mode share within the Edmonton area as buses in both directions between Ponders End and Edmonton well as the Jubilee, Ponders End and Enfield Highway wards. These Green along the Herford Road corridor. wards have also experienced the highest increases between 2001 and 2011. Of which the biggest increase has been experienced in Moderate increases in bus mode share are also evident in the Edmonton Green ward where bus mode share has increased by 8% Palmers Green, Bowes, and Southgate areas in south-west Enfield. from 19% to 27%. 7 DRAFT Access to Employment Enfield’s core employment areas are separated between industrial (logistics, wholesale, manufacturing and construction) in north-east Enfield (primarily Brimsdown) and a mix of industrial and retail to the south of Ponders End, otherwise known as the Central Leeside area which alone employs more than 91,000 people. The Central Leeside Area Action Plan proposes an additional 4,000 jobs south of Ponders End, of which 3,000 are expected to be created through the Meridian Water development, whilst the North-East Enfield Area Action Plan aims to improve existing employment areas and introduce a more diverse mix of employment opportunities. Further data is Key required to fully gauge and quantify the intermediate Weekday bus trips and long term job creation potential of north-east High Frequency services Enfield including the added value of the North Low Frequency services Gateway Access package (NGAP). Key Employment areas There are currently more than 9,000 trips to and from Enfield Employment area. Most of which are Map 4: Bus trips to/and from key employment areas using BODs data facilitated by the 34, 192 and 444 to the south-east Weekday trips to/from Route Total Day trips % employment areas (Angel Road) with the 491 Employment area serving Brimsdown. This constitutes for 20% of all 34 2915 22286 13% weekday trips made on these routes. 192 3505 9071 39% 444 946 7402 13% 491 1811 6313 29% Total 9177 45072 20% 8 DRAFT Access to Employment Key Route 192 stop (Hail & Ride) Routes 34 & 444 stops Map 5: Survey area Key Routes 34 & 444 pax Route 192 pax High Frequency services Low Frequency services Key Employment areas Map 6: Key places of employment for bus users based on Passenger Data surveys An informal weekday survey conducted in September 2014 at Nearly all recorded 34 and 444 passengers worked within the Angel Montagu Road, Conduit Lane (route 192) and on the North Circular area; predominantly within retail or industrial estates within the (routes 34 and 444). More than 200 passengers participated. Meridian Water site, and some working north of the site at Coca Cola, London Waste Eco Park or other industrial or trade services. Survey results indicated that the majority of route 192 passengers Trips were evenly distributed across the morning and afternoon boarding or alighting in the Edmonton Angel area to get to work periods. were travelling to Tottenham Hale, of which more than half of passengers interchanged at Tottenham Hale station to commute while the rest worked within the Hale Retail Park. 9 DRAFT Network Coverage and Limitations The existing network offers comprehensive coverage to the east of Enfield from most parts of the borough, with most routes providing a high frequency service. Passenger survey data shows approximately a third of all weekday trips on east-west routes that serve the borough are made to east Enfield and virtually half of all trips from the centre of the borough are made to the Edmonton area. Direct bus access to key employment areas from the west of Enfield are generally poor, particularly to the Lower Edmonton and Jubilee wards. To the north direct services to the Brimsdown area (routes 121, 307 and 313) may not provide full access to employment due to physical barriers such as the Greater Anglia Line (level crossings) and long walking distances to employment along Mollison Avenue and Meridian Way. Map 7: Direct east/west links However, there are good interchange opportunities at There are also no direct links from the Grange, Enfield Town, Southbury Road, Edmonton Green and Winchmore Hill, Bush Hill Park and Haselbury wards Silver Street, which routes 121, 307, 313 and 444 serve to the east and centre of the borough. making access to the north-east and south-east employment areas available within one bus interchange . 10 DRAFT Committed Development More than 9,000 residential units are expected to come forward within the next 10-15 years. Of which, at least 5,000 units are proposed as part of the Meridian Water Masterplan. The second largest development in Chase Farm at 500 residential units. Other development includes Chase Farm site location Highmead in Upper Edmonton at 118 units, the Alma Estate, Electric Quarter at Ponders End which is expected to provide 400 residential units, a large spread of Future Development & Growth- Increase by Ward smaller residential dwellings over School expansions the North Circular in SW Enfield Housing development 1,000-5,000 units (including Ladderswood Estate). Housing development 500-1,000 units Meridian Water site location Housing development 100-500 units Housing development 50-100 units Housing development less than 50 units High Frequency services Low Frequency services Map 8: Committed housing development and school expansions in LB Enfield 11 DRAFT Key Development Site - Meridian Water A total of around to 5,000 new homes and 3,000 new jobs are expected within the Meridian Water Masterplan with associated social and community infrastructure. The existing bus network is limited and does not provide penetration through the Masterplan area, especially to the east. The surrounding area is currently served by routes 34, 192, 341 & 444. Route 192 is at capacity arriving at Tottenham Hale from the north in the morning peak. Therefore any additional demand from Meridian Water towards Tottenham Hale will require routes 34 and 444 to provide east/west links along the north circular. However neither route is easily accessible from the south. If one or both routes were re-routed through the Masterplan area it would provide east/west connections to Chingford, Walthamstow, Turnpike Lane and Arnos Grove. Map 9: Meridian Water Masterplan area and surrounding neighbourhoods 12 DRAFT Key Development Site - Meridian Water Maps 10 & 11: Indicative bus routeings from the Meridian Water masterplan The Meridian Water Masterplan identifies the need for bus accessible by bus and are currently investigating the possibility services to penetrate the entirety of the development site within of building a bus accessible bridge across the Lee Navigation.
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