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Felderítő Szemle KATONAI NEMZETBIZTONSÁGI SZOLGÁLAT XV. évfolyam 3. szám 2016. november FELDERÍTŐ SZEMLE ALAPÍTVA: 2002 BUDAPEST A Katonai Nemzetbiztonsági Szolgálat tudományos-szakmai folyóirata Felelős kiadó Kovács József altábornagy, főigazgató Szerkesztőbizottság Elnök: Dr. Béres János vezérőrnagy Tagok: Dezső Sándor dandártábornok Dr. Magyar István ny. dandártábornok Dr. Tömösváry Zsigmond ny. dandártábornok Deák Anita alezredes Dr. Fürjes János alezredes Háry Szabolcs alezredes Dr. Magyar Sándor alezredes Dr. Tóth Sándor alezredes Dr. Vida Csaba alezredes A kézirat lezárva: 2016. november 30. Felelős szerkesztő: Deák Anita alezredes Olvasószerkesztő: Gál Csaba ny. ezredes Tördelőszerkesztő: Ivanovits Györgyi Dorina HU ISSN 1588-242X TARTALOM BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA NÓGRÁDI GYÖRGY BOSNYÁK RADIKALIZMUS AUSZTRIÁBAN ................................... 5 PROF. DR. NAGY LÁSZLÓ NY. EZREDES– DR. TÖMÖSVÁRY ZSIGMOND NY. DANDÁRTÁBORNOK AZ OROSZORSZÁGI FÖDERÁCIÓ BIZTONSÁGPOLOTIKAI DOKUMENTUMAI (ÖSSZEHASONLÍTÓ ELEMZÉS) ........................................................ 21 PROF. DR. SZENES ZOLTÁN NY. VEZÉREZREDES A STRATÉGIA ÚJRAGONDOLÁSA ................................................... 48 HÍRSZERZÉS–FELDERÍTÉS DR. VIDA CSABA ALEZREDES A HÍRSZERZÉSI ÁGAK ELEMZŐ–ÉRTÉKELŐ MEGKÖZELÍTÉSE ................................................................................ 77 LAKATOS ZSOLT ALEZREDES AZ EU FELDERÍTŐ-INFORMÁCIÓS RENDSZER KIHÍVÁSAI ÉS SZEREPE A VÁLSÁGKEZELÉSBEN ..................... 94 ORSZÁGISMERTETŐ HÁRY SZABOLCS ALEZREDES CENTRIFUGÁLIS ÉS CENTRIPETÁLIS ERŐK MACEDÓNIÁBAN ................................................................................ 140 FÓRUM DR. MIHÓK SÁNDOR NY. ALEZREDES SZENT MÁRTON, A FELDERÍTŐK VÉDŐSZENTJE. .................. 194 AZ OLVASÓHOZ E SZÁMUNK TARTALMA ................................................................. 214 A KÖTET SZERZŐI ............................................................................. 222 A FELDERÍTŐ SZEMLÉBEN TÖRTÉNŐ PUBLIKÁLÁS FELTÉTELEI ........................................................................................ 223 NÓGRÁDI GYÖRGY BOSNYÁK RADIKALIZMUS AUSZTRIÁBAN A délszláv válság nyomai A mai globális problémát jelentő radikalizációs hullám kockázatainak a bemutatásakor Ausztria esetében ki kell emelnünk a délszláv válság regionális hatásait is, amelyek következtében a forrongó Balkánon a harcokban aktív szerepet vállaló boszniai muszlimok fundamentalista muszlim megerősödést támogató egyénekkel bővültek ki. Az iszlám hitű országokból érkezők többsége már Boszniába érkezésekor kiképzett, a fegyveres dzsihádra elhivatott katonaként vállalt részt a harcokban, de legalábbis a helyi viszonyok ismeretével kijelenthető, hogy a fegyveres harcokat már a küldő országukban is megtapasztalták.1 Számuk a források szerint 300–1700 körül lehetett, de néhány elemzés ennél nagyobb számot is megad.2 A Közel-Keletről érkező egyéneket anyagi és eszközbeli támogatások is követték, amelyek iszlám segélyszervezeteken, egyéni adományokon és különféle nehezen detektálható gazdasági tranzakciókon keresztül jutottak el a Balkánra. A radikális csoportoknak kedvezve több boszniai településen belül koncentrálódási folyamat indult meg, amely révén muszlim többségű (esetenként homogén) települések épültek ki. E területek a központi közigazgatástól fokozatosan eltávolodva a saría alapján saját igazgatási rendszert alakítottak ki. E települések3 ismerete az ausztriai viszonyok szempontjából fontos, hiszen a radikalizálódott közeg egyfajta gyújtópontként jelenhetett meg az erre fogékonyak számára, akik Ausztriába érkezve és az ottani radikális imámok tanításait vagy az extrémista ideológiát valló közösségek motivációit követve potenciálisan erőszakos cselekményekre is vállalkozhattak.4 A mudzsahedinek boszniai szerepvállalásánál Ausztria szempontjából nagyobb problémát jelent a délszláv válság alatt fokozódó hiányosan ellenőrzött kivándorlási hullám, amely során az al-Kaidával és egyéb aktív terrorcsoportokkal szoros kapcsolatokat fenntartó egyének5 Nyugat-Európa államaiban kerestek menedéket, illetve potenciális előretolt bázist a radikális nézetek elterjesztéséhez (továbbgondolva: az európai sejtek felépítéséhez és esetleges aktivizálásához is). 1 BESENYŐ János (2015): Not the invention of ISIS: Terrorists among immigrants, Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues. 5. évf. 1 sz. p. 6. 2 ICTY (2008): Case No. IT-04-83-T, Prosecutor v. Rasim Delic, p. 36 http://www.icty.org/x/cases/delic/tjug/en/080915.pdf; letöltés: 2016.07.12. valamint Craig PYES– Josh MEYER–William C. REMPEL (2001): Bosnia Seen as Hospitable Base and Sanctuary for Terrorists, http://articles.latimes.com/2001/oct/07/news/mn-54505/2; letöltés: 2016.07.12. 3 Radikális központok találhatóak például Boszniában Serici, Zeljezno, Polje Pojska, Mehurici, Bocinja, Travnik, Gornja Maoca, Grmusa, Velika Kladusa és Debeljak településeken. Forrás: Ioannis MICHALETOS (2011): An outlook of radical Islamism in Bosnia, Radical Islam Monitor in Southeast Europe, http://www.rimse.gr/2011/03/an-outlook-of-radical-islamism-in.html; letöltés: 2016.03.28. 4 Az állítást alátámasztja a később kifejtett Sabina Selimovic és Samra Kesinovic esete is. 5 Evan F. KOHLMANN (2006): The Afghan-Bosnian Mujahideen Network in Europe. http://www.aina.org/reports/tabmnie.pdf; letöltés: 2016.07.12. BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA 5 1992 és 1995 között – a környező államokhoz hasonlóan – Ausztria is szembesült a Bosznia-Hercegovinából érkező nagyarányú bevándorlással.6 Ausztriánál csupán Németország (320 ezer fő) és Svédország (körülbelül 90 ezer fő) fogadott több boszniai menekültet.7 Az említett időszakban 95 ezren érkeztek Ausztriába Bosznia-Hercegovinából, majd egy négyéves integrációs periódus8 után 10 ezer fő továbbutazott Nyugat-Európa felé, szintén 10 ezer fő visszatelepült Bosznia- Hercegovinába, de a többség (körülbelül 70 ezer fő) hosszú távú letelepedési engedélyt kapott, és lehetősége volt az osztrák munkaerőpiachoz való hozzáférésre is.9 Jelenlegi folyamatok A jelenlegi válság egészét vizsgálva Ausztriát hazánkkal ellentétben már nem csak tranzitországként kategorizálhatjuk, mert az országban 2015-ben összesen körülbelül 88 ezer fő adott be menekültstátuszra vonatkozó kérelmet.10 2015-ös adatok szerint Ausztriában körülbelül 155 ezer Bosznia- Hercegovinából származó migráns él.11 A többi országhoz hasonlóan a migráció jóvoltából Ausztria is egyre növekvő muzulmán népességgel rendelkezik, amely már az ország lakosságának 6–7%-át teszi ki.12 A bécsi székhelyű Boszniai Muszlim Közösség Ausztriában (Islamska Zajednica Bosnjaka u Austriji) 25 hivatalos imatermet üzemeltet az ország több pontján.13 A legnagyobb bosnyák közösségek Graz, 6 Ausztria számára nem volt új jelenség a bevándorlás, a Monarchia időszakában magyar területekről is tízezrek települtek át osztrák városokba, így például Bécs lakosságának 60%-át külföldi migránsok adták. A második világháború végére pedig a társadalom már körülbelül 1,4 millió külföldivel (többnyire német és kelet-európai származásúakkal) bővült. Az 1956-os forradalom következményeként csak Magyarországról körülbelül 84 ezer fő menekült Ausztriába. Az 1970-es években a gazdasági migráció ugrásszerű növekedésével a muszlim közösségek is megerősödtek Ausztriában. A beérkezők közül arányaikat tekintve kiemelkedtek a török, valamint a jugoszláv tagköztársaságokból származó munkavállalók. Forrás: Michael JANDL – Albert KRALER (2003): Austria: A Country of Immigration? http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/austria-country- immigration; letöltés: 2016.07.12. és UNHCR (2016): Flüchtlingsland Österreich. http://www.unhcr.at/unhcr/in-oesterreich/fluechtlingsland-oesterreich.html; letöltés : 2016.07.12. 7 Ruth SCHÖFFL (2011): Jugoslawien-Kriege: 115.000 flohen nach Österreich, http://medienservicestelle.at/migration_bewegt/2011/06/21/kriege-in-ex-jugoslawien-fuhrten-zu-drei- grosen-fluchtlingswellen/; letöltés: 2016.07.12. 8 Ennek keretein belül a migránsok tanfolyamokon, illetve az osztrák társadalmi, politikai és humanitárius értékeket bemutató tananyagok (Wertefibel) megismerésén keresztül kerülnek közelebb a befogadó társadalom normarendszerének az elvárásaihoz. Forrás: Bundesministerium für Inneres (2013): Zusammen leben in Österreich. http://www.staatsbuergerschaft.gv.at/fileadmin/user_upload/Broschuere/RWR-Fibel.pdf; letöltés: 2016.07.14. 9 Michael JANDL – Albert KRALER (2003): Austria: A Country of Immigration? http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/austria-country-immigration; letöltés: 2016.07.12. 10 Bundesminiserium für Inneres (2015): Vorläufige Asylstatistik, Dezember, 2015. p. 3. http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_Asylwesen/statistik/files/Asylstatistik_Dezember_2015.pdf; letöltés: 2016.07.12. 11 Migration Policy Institute (2015): International Migrant Populations by Country of Origin and Destination, mid-2015 Estimates. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/international-migration-statistics; letöltés: 2016.07.12. 12 Soeren KERN (2014): Springboard for Global Jihad, Gatestone Institut. http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4651/austria-jihad; letöltés: 2016.05.11. 13 Islamska zajednica Bosnjaka u Austriji – IZBA honlapja. http://izba.at/ 6 BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA Linz, Wels, Salzburg, Villach és Bécs városokban találhatóak.14 Emellett Meidlingben is van egy nagyobb iszlám közösség, amely az ott prédikáló Abu Tejma15 radikális imám kapcsolati hálójának feltérképezésekor került kapcsolatba a fundamentalista (nagyrészt vahabita16) szervezetekkel. A meidlingi központ prédikátorán keresztül szoros együttműködésben operált a bécsi radikális
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