EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS Pocketbook 2020/21 Table of contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Number of vehicles 10 3 Fuel consumption & CO2 22 4 Technologies & key parameters 32 5 Other emissions & on-road 46 Annex Remarks on data sources 50 List of figures & tables 5 1 References 54 Abbreviations 55 Tables 56 An electronic version of this Pocketbook including more detailed statistical data is available online: http://eupocketbook.theicct.org EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21 1 INTRODUCTION Fig. 1-1 Select local government targets The 2020/21 edition of European Vehicle Market for combustion- Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger engine car bans as car, light commercial, and heavy-duty vehicle fleets Bergen of April 2020 2025 (combustion engines) in the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2019. https://t1p.de/inwzy Oslo Created with mapchart.net © As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle 2024 (combustion engines) technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. Amsterdam The following pages give a concise overview 2030 (combustion engines) London of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize 2025 (gasoline, diesel, HEV) Brussels 2030 (diesel) the latest regulatory developments in the EU. Paris 2035 (gasoline, LPG) 2024 (diesel) More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, 2030 (gasoline) Strasbourg 2025 (diesel) along with information on sources. Milan 2027 (diesel) Rome 2024 (diesel) Number of vehicles 2030 (gasoline) In 2019, new car registrations in the EU slightly increased to a level of 15.5 million from 15.1 million in 2018. Possibly due to consumer uncertainty National governments Local governments with C40 cities with concerning Brexit, sales in the United Kingdom (UK) with combustion-engine combustion-engine combustion-engine passenger car phase-out passenger car access vehicle transition continued to decrease (by 2 % compared to 2018) targets until 2040 ban targets until 2035 pledges by 2030 while most other markets saw an increase in new car registrations. By far the strongest growth in vehicle sales took place in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) where the diesel market share used to be significant- segment. Approximately 5.7 million new cars in 2019 ly higher than the EU average, the market share were SUVs, 10 times as many as in 2001. dropped from a high of 77 % in 2008 to 34 % by 2019. In the aftermath of the Dieselgate scandal, This recent decrease in diesel car sales to a large sales of new diesel cars dropped significantly. extent is likely linked to a loss in trust from consumers In 2011–2012, about 55 % of newly registered cars in who are increasingly concerned about the threat the EU were powered by diesel fuel, an all-time of diesel bans in urban areas. As of now, a number of high. Since then, the market share of diesel vehicles cities across Europe have announced their intention decreased slowly, to 49 % in 2016, but then declined to ban diesel vehicles, beginning with Oslo, Paris, more quickly, dropping to 31 % in 2019. In France, and Rome in 2024 (Wappelhorst, 2020) (Fig. 1-1). 2 3 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21 1 Introduction Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions Fig. 1-2 The official level of average carbon dioxide (CO2) China Germany Netherlands PHEV sample size (n = 6,870) (n = 1,457) (n = 10,800) Distribution of emissions from new passenger cars in the EU, the real-world fuel as measured in the laboratory via the New European consumption of Driving Cycle (NEDC) type-approval test proce- PHEVs, in relation dure, increased to 122 grams per kilometer (g/km) in to NEDC test cycle. 100 % means 2019, which is 1 g/km higher than in the previous real-world year (Tietge et al., 2020). As CO2 emissions and fuel 06200 400 600 % 0 200 400 00 % 0 200 400 600 % and NEDC test consumption are directly linked, this implies a fleet- cycle fuel 100 % consumption wide average fuel efficiency of 5 liters/100 km. Norway US & Canada Real-world and test After 2015 targets were met, and in the absence (n = 1,514) (n = 84,068) cycle fuel consumption values are equal values are equal (marked with of targets before 2020, the increase in average CO2 vertical dashed emissions up to 2019 was not unexpected. As a result lines) of the mandatory fleet-wide CO2 target of 95 g/km https://t1p.de/ky5l for 2020/21, new car emission levels began to quickly User group private decrease from January 2020 onwards. By August company car 06200 400 600 % 0 200 400 00 % 2020, the year-to-date CO2 level had reached about Relation to NEDC 103 g/km, with many manufacturers already (nearly) fuel consumption complying with their respective 2020 target levels (Mock and Tietge, 2020). Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) New mandatory CO2 standards for the years are deployed by several manufacturers as a means 2025 and 2030 were adopted in early 2019. of reducing their fleet CO2 emission levels and For passenger cars, average fleet-wide emissions to avoid any penalty payments. While the CO2 level will have to be reduced by 15 % by 2025 and of PHEVs typically is around or below 50 g/km by 37.5 % by 2030, with respect to a 2021 baseline. according to the NEDC, their average real-world CO2 emission levels for these new targets will be fuel consumption and CO2 performance is two measured in the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles to four times higher (Fig. 1-2). Without a reform of Test Procedure (WLTP), which became mandatory the incentives for PHEVs, the real-world contri- for new vehicles in September 2018. For heavy-duty bution for reducing CO2 emissions will therefore be vehicles, CO2 emissions will have to be reduced much lower than suggested by the official figures by 15 % by 2025 and 30 % by 2030, with respect to (Plötz et al, 2020). a 2019 baseline (Rodríguez, 2019). A regulatory proposal is expected from the European Commission in mid-2021 which will strengthen the CO2 targets for passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles to bring them in line with the EU’s ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 % by 2030 (EC, 2020). 4 5 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21 1 Introduction Technologies and key technical parameters Market share of electric vehicles (%) Fig. 1-3 The vast majority of Europe’s new cars are 12 Market share of powered by gasoline or diesel motors. The market electric vehicles share of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in the EU 10 among all new was about 4 % of all new car sales in 2019. Sales of passenger cars in Europe (monthly HEVs increased in particular in Finland, where 8 data from January the market share increased to 11 % in 2019. Toyota Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 2019 onwards) continues to dominate the market for HEVs in 6 Europe, with about 60 % of all new Toyota vehicles in 2019 being hybrid electric. 4 In 2019, PHEVs and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) together made up about 3 % of new vehicle Battery electric vehicles registrations in the EU. Top EU markets include 2 Sweden, where 7 % of new sales were PHEVs, and the 0 Netherlands, where 14 % of new sales were BEVs. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Outside the EU, sales of electric vehicles are particu- larly high in Norway, where 14 % of new cars sold in 2019 were PHEV, 42 % were BEV, and an additional 12 % were HEV, approximately. The average mass of new cars in the EU was In terms of manufacturer brands, Volvo (8 %) comparable to the previous year, at 1,415 kg and BMW (5 %) were among the top sellers of PHEVs in 2019. Still, this is about 12 % higher than in 2001. in 2019. Nissan led sales of BEVs models, with 7 % The average mass of both the German and of the brand’s sales being battery electric. Entering Swedish new car fleets were significantly above the into the year 2020, the market dynamic changed EU average, at 1,493 kg and 1,598 kg, respectively. notably, with electric vehicles jumping to a market In contrast, customers in the Netherlands opted for share of 11 % by August 2020 (Fig. 1-3). significantly lighter cars, with an average weight of 1,382 kg. The average engine power increased to 102 kW in 2019, which is about 37 % more than in 2001. 6 7 EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21 1 Introduction Average divergence between spritmonitor.de and Other emissions and on-road type-approval CO2 emission values (%) Fig. 1-4 The Real Driving Emissions (RDE) test proce- 50 Divergence dure was phased-in beginning in 2017 for new vehicle Number of vehicles between per year and data source types and is required for all new vehicles from 40 NEDC (ICCT) spritmonitor.de September 2019. As part of RDE, conformity factors 1,000 (n > 7,000 per year) and type-approval 5,000 NEDC (EEA) CO2 emission were introduced that regulate how much higher 10,000 (n = 2,417) values over time, vehicle emissions are allowed to be during on-road 30 including a testing than during laboratory testing. For NOx, differentiation these conformity factors are 2.1 for the initial phase of the divergence starting in 2017 (Euro 6d-Temp) and 1.43 from 20 for those vehicles that were regis- 2020 onward (Euro 6d). This means that in 2019, WLTP (EEA) (n = 526) tered in 2018 and measured new diesel car NOx emissions could 10 were type-approved be up to 80 mg/km during laboratory testing but as to the WLTP high as 168 mg/km during an on-road test that 0 https://t1p.de/6ogu is compliant with the RDE requirements.