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Read the Population Projection Report 2013 The United Republic of Tanzania National Population Projections National Bureau of Statistics Ministry of Finance and Planning Dar es Salaam and Office of the Chief Government Statistician Ministry of Finance and Planning Zanzibar February, 2018 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA, ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES The United Republic of Tanzania is the union of two independent countries of Tanganyika and Zanzibar. The union of these two countries took place on 26th April, 1964. Administratively, Tanzania has a total of 31 regions, 26 in Tanzania Mainland (formerly known as Tanganyika) and 5 in Tanzania Zanzibar. Foreword This report presents the methodology and population projections based on the 2012 Population and Housing Census (PHC) data. The projection exercise was undertaken by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in collaboration with the Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar (OCGS). The results include projections of the total population by sex in single years and five-year age groups; and summary of some demographic indicators. The success of the projection work depended upon the cooperation and contributions from the government, development partners and various institutions. A special word of thanks should go to UNFPA, USAID and TSMP basket funders for their financial support and UNAIDS and ESRF for their technical support. We would also like to thank experts from higher learning institutions in the country for their valuable technical support. Special thanks should also go to the Management of NBS and OCGS whose commitment and dedication made significant contributions to the overall efficiency of this work. Special thanks should go to Dr. Thomas McDevitt, a Demographer from US Census Bureau who trained and guided the team on PASEX spreadsheets and basic computational techniques; and Dr. Mike Levin, an IT specialist on census data who guided the IT team on data cleaning and computation of the 2002 census data based on 2017 administrative structure. Last but not least, we would wish to thank the whole National Team of Analysts: Dr. Albina Chuwa, Ms. Mayasa Mwinyi Mahfoudh, Mr. Irenius Ruyobya, Prof. M. Mbonile, Mr. Ahmed Makbel, Ms. Asia Hassan Mussa, Mr. Abdul-Majid Jecha, Mr. Seif Ahmad Kuchengo, Mr. Mdoka Omary, Ms. Sabina R. Daima, Mr. Bakar Kombo Omary, Mr. Ariv Severe, Eng. Ambose Mapande and Eng. Robert Sikumbili. This team of analysts is particularly thanked for their commitment, dedication and active participation in the production of these projections. NBS and OCGS welcome comments and suggestions regarding these projections and other publications emanating from the 2012 Population and Housing Census. All comments and suggestions should be addressed to the Director General, National Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 796, Dar es Salaam, e-mail [email protected], or to the Chief Government Statistician, Office of the Chief Government Statistician, P.O. Box 2331, Zanzibar, e-mail: [email protected]. Dr. Albina Chuwa, Ms. Mayasa Mwinyi Mahfoudh, Director General, Government Statistician, National Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Chief Government Statistian, Dar es Salaam Zanzibar i Executive Summary This report presents population projections for the period of 2013 to 2035 at National level, Tanzania Mainland and Tanzania Zanzibar. These population projections were made using Cohort Component Technique; of Rural Urban Projection Program (RUP) that was developed by the US Census Bureau, and Spectrum System which is a computer package that analyses existing information to determine the future consequence of today’s development programmes and policies. These projections included three components for population change, namely: fertility, mortality and migration. The report gives fertility, mortality, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions used, and presents demographic and socio-economic future trends for Tanzania, Tanzania Mainland and Tanzania Zanzibar. The results include estimated total population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as the summary of demographic indicators. It should be noted that, before projection, population was adjusted to mid-year of 2012 using population growth rate based on estimated fertility and mortality. This provided the adjusted population estimates by using MOVEPOP spreadsheets. During this process, National projection was adjusted to accommodate five (5) percent of under-enumerated population during census undertaking as revealed by Post-Enumeration Survey (PES). For the period of 2013 to 2035, it is assumed that the population growth of the country will decrease. The national projections show that the Tanzania population growth rate will decrease from 3.1 percent in 2013 (with a population of 46,356,279) to 2.8 percent in 2035 (with a population of 89,204,781). For the Tanzania Mainland population growth rate will also decrease from 3.1 in 2013 (with a population of 45,007,503) to 2.8 percent in 2035 (with a population of 86,871,546). In Tanzania Zanzibar, the population growth rate will decrease from 3.4 percent in 2013 (with a population of 1,348,776) to 1.9 percent in 2035 (with a population of 2,333,235). As for mortality, Infant Mortality Rates (IMRs) in Tanzania and Tanzania Mainland are expected to decline for both sexes from 43 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013 to 13 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2035. For Tanzania Zanzibar, IMR is projected to decline from 38 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013 to 13 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2035. The mortality estimates further show that life expectancy at birth for both Tanzania and Tanzania Mainland will increase from 62 years in 2013 to 74 years in 2035 for both sexes. For the male population, life expectancy at birth for Tanzania and Tanzania Mainland will increase from 60 ii years in year 2013 to 71 years in 2035, while life expectancy at birth for the female population will increase from 64 years in 2013 to 77 years in 2035. For Tanzania Zanzibar, life expectancy at birth will increase from 66 years in 2013 to 73 years in 2035 for both sexes. For the male population, life expectancy at birth will increase from 64 years in year 2013 to 70 years in 2035, while life expectancy at birth for the female population will increase from 67 years in 2013 to 77 years in 2035. On fertility, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will decline from 5.3 children per woman in 2013 to 4.1 children per woman in 2035 for both Tanzania and Tanzania Mainland. For Tanzania Zanzibar, the TFR will decrease from 4.9 children per woman in 2013 to 3.2 children per woman in 2035. iii Contents Page Foreword ...................................................................................................................................... i Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... ii Contents .................................................................................................................................... iv List of Text Tables ....................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. vi List of Maps ................................................................................................................................ vi List of Statistical Tables ............................................................................................................. vii List of Abbreviation and Acronyms ............................................................................................. ix Chapter One ............................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 The Population Projection Software ................................................................................ 2 Chapter Two ............................................................................................................................... 5 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Base year Population ...................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Fertility Assumptions and Estimation ............................................................................. 7 2.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 7 2.3.2 Fertility Estimation ......................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Mortality ........................................................................................................................ 8 2.4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 2.4.2 Mortality Estimation ......................................................................................................
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