Transforming Cities Visions of a Better Future Summary of a Meeting Hosted by the Rockefeller Foundation

Transforming cities Visions of a better future Summary of a meeting hosted by The Rockefeller Foundation

Corporations realize that the mega-cities of the future are big economic opportunities. The destinies of cities and corporations are intertwined. Haripasad Hegde, global head of operations, Wipro

With insights from Foreword

In August 2013, The Rockefeller Foundation hosted “The Future of Transforming Cities,” the first in a series of high-level meetings focused on strengthening the Foundation’s work toward its dual goals: advancing more equitable growth by expanding opportunity worldwide, and building greater resilience by helping people, communities and institutions prepare for, withstand and emerge stronger from acute shocks and chronic stresses. The Foundation works in four domains to achieve these goals, and those constitute the themes of the meetings: improving cities, ecosystems, health and livelihoods. By bringing together diverse, sometimes clashing perspectives to explore future trends and to develop microscenarios, the organizers hope to fortify humanity’s ability to anticipate and adapt to trends and challenges. For more information on the series, please go to www.visionariesunbound.com.

The meeting, held from August 27-30 at the Foundation’s Bellagio Conference Center in Italy, was convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. The Economist Intelligence Unit wrote this summary report of the meeting in full, with the exception of the foreword and conclusion, which were written by The Rockefeller Foundation.

Transforming Cities was convened by The Rockefeller Foundation and University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research with support from The Rockefeller Foundation Malgorzata Kistryn / Shutterstock.com De Visu / Shutterstock.com Executive Summary

Cities are fonts of ideas, opportunity, art and political movements. But urban enclaves can also generate inequality, epidemics and pollution. The rapid pace of urbanization in the coming decades brings these and other unprecedented opportunities and challenges to the fore. Will cities lose their vibrant potential if the Transforming Cities challenges they face spiral out of control? brought together more than 20 experts to imagine a better urban world.

Transforming cities 5

50 60

Increase in urban population by major regions, 2011-2050 (percent of total urban increase) 32.5 2011-2050 Asia Africa 54.01 Latin America, Caribbean 6.8 North America Europe 4.2 Oceania 2.0 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 0.5 Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

To explore these questions and spark creative solutions, the discussion progressed from a focus on trends to microscenarios (or mini-versions of the future), to concrete projects.

Cross-cutting takeaways with their focus areas include: Short-termism may not be a bad URGENCY: LEADERSHIP: thing, as long as Social tension, climate shocks, a Strong leadership is necessary it’s driven by a rise in the youth population and to champion ideas and develop long-term vision. urban migration demand action. trust and ownership. It allows you to INCENTIVES: INNOVATION: implement, learn It is important to identify and Creativity is critical to spark the and adapt rather align interests across sectors to unexpected and develop breakthroughs. than being locked fix policy and market failures. PLANNING: into long-term plans TIMING: Advance design of mass transit, that are inflexible. Short-term adaptable strategies water, sanitation and road networks is Robert Garris, with a long-term vision can best generally desirable. But encouraging managing director, solve complex urban problems. and responding to organic, community- driven urban growth by retrofitting existing The Rockefeller BROAD INVOLVEMENT: areas can foster urban resiliency. Foundation Engaging all stakeholders—including the elite—is necessary for lasting change. INFORMATION: New ways to collect and leverage EQUITY: data can empower and enrich local Livelihoods must be addressed, communities. But protecting the through job creation and pro- privacy and proprietary interests of entrepreneurship policies. individuals and businesses is critical. SOCIAL PROTESTS: SCALE: Social tension and social movements Current solutions can be standardized can be disruptive; they can also and scaled up to broaden benefits for bring new opportunities. all, but only through collaboration and MARKET FORCES: alignment of interests between public, Private-sector buy-in and private and civil society organizations. involvement are critical.

6 Transforming cities Trends, microscenarios and future solutions

Participants first explored seven overlapping trends they believed will most influence cities in the coming 15 years, as well as their causes and effects, and deep interconnections. For example, poor planning and short-termism often cause a failure of governments to address long- term issues, increasing vulnerability to climate shocks. Decentralization and grassroots action and division within the city were both often caused by a combination of shrinking livelihood options, growing income inequality, and poor public service provision. Finally, while the trends of rapidly expanding access to information technology and big data will enable new and improved public service delivery and a more active citizenry, an abundance of data will also lead to privacy and ownership issues – ultimately leading to yet another trend — social protest.

Small groups next developed three microscenarios, or mini-versions of the future around three of the most prominent trends – Division within the city, poor planning and short-termism, and vulnerability to climate shocks. Division within the city pointed to the lack of shared vision, insecure livelihoods, rising land prices, the privatization of public spaces and services, and a weak public will to address these issues as causes. Poor planning and short-termism explored how scarce resources, unpredictable impacts from climate change, and mass migration into cities will overwhelm urban planners. Vulnerability to climate shocks predicted more extreme weather, disruptive events, displaced people, rising insurance costs, food insecurity, urban migration and water scarcity as likely future consequences – and on the positive side, the birth of an urban resilience industry.

Finally, participants collaborated on group projects to help cities prepare for future trends. For example, the decentralization of public services through projects such as rainwater harvesting, urban farming or portable toilets can empower and enrich informal settlements. Access to public data about the consumption of basic public goods in slums can help city managers, entrepreneurs and communities make informed decisions. Using rooftops for galleries, greenhouses, playgrounds and artists’ studios can help solve the land shortage problem. Finally, using land for the public good to create more green space and to maximize the efficiency of a dense and unplanned inner-city is critical for the success of the pilot city of Lusaka.

Transforming cities 7 The future of transforming cities

Meeting participants

Left to right, top: Haripasad Hegde, James Goodman, Jonathon Porritt, Stephanie Draper, Ashvin Dayal, Sameh Wahba, Jinsong Du, Yu Gao, Alan Mabin and Amy Montgomery

Middle row: Steven Koonin, Karin Ireton, Twarath Sutabutr, Danny Zulu, Vijay Vaitheeswaran, Alexander Keating and Solomon Prakash

Bottom row: Albert Chan, Robert Garris, Joan Clos, Eugénie Birch, Sheela Patel, Susan Wachter, Carolyn Whelan, Ferdous Jahan, Riva Froymovich, Claudia Juech and Nicholas K. Banda

8 Transforming cities Andrey Gontarev / Shutterstock.com Transforming Cities: Visions of a better future

Introduction from The Rockefeller Foundation

For more than 50 years, The Rockefeller Foundation’s conference center in Bellagio, Italy, has sparked innovations that have helped avert major global crises. The Green Revolution, which developed new ways to boost agricultural production in poorer nations, was expanded to Asia over several Bellagio meetings in the 1960s and ‘70s. The International AIDS Vaccine An inclusive and Initiative, which incentivized research to develop a vaccine, was born at a resilient city makes 1994 meeting. economic sense. Increased stresses on In August 2013, The Rockefeller Foundation hosted “The Future of the system bring about Transforming Cities,” the first in a series of high-level meetings devoted increasingly creative to strengthening the Foundation’s work toward its dual goals: advancing responses. These help more equitable growth by expanding opportunity worldwide, and building local governments greater resilience by helping people, communities and institutions prepare develop policies that for, withstand and emerge stronger from acute shocks and chronic stresses. address divides and The Foundation works in four domains to achieve these goals, and those halt urban decline. constitute the themes of the series of meetings: transforming cities, revaluing ecosystems, advancing health and securing livelihoods. By bringing together Sameh Wahba, sector manager, eclectic, sometimes clashing perspectives to explore future trends and to Urban Development develop microscenarios, the organizers hope to expand humanity’s ability to and Resilience Unit, anticipate and adapt to trends and challenges. For more information on the World Bank series, please go to www.visionariesunbound.com.

Transforming Cities

Cities are fonts of potential: They are laboratories of fresh ideas, dynamic markets generating wealth and opportunity, places where music and the arts flourish, and safe havens for persecuted people. But urban enclaves can also sow inequality, blight, epidemics, panic and pollution. The rapid pace of urbanization in the coming decades will bring these and other unprecedented challenges—and opportunities—to the fore. Will cities lose their vibrant potential if the challenges they face spiral out of control?

10 Transforming cities Africa 903 33,004 41,511 53,310 68,699 86,568 107,750 134,220 165,659 Africa 903 33,004 41,511 53,310 68,699 86,568 107,750 134,220 165,659 203,383 244,732 288,402 340,303 400,651 470,827 551,552 Asia 935 245,052 297,970 359,955 431,115 505,669 203,383 244,732 288,402 340,303 400,651 470,827 551,552 642,423Africa 744,485 903 33,004858,242 41,511 53,310983,327 68,699 86,5681,119,192 107,750 1,264,629 134,220 165,659 598,088 715,234 Asia 865,113 935 1,032,275245,052 1,206,138297,970 1,392,232359,955 431,115 505,669 Africa642,423 903744,485 33,004 41,511858,242 53,310 68,699983,327 86,568 107,7501,119,192 134,2201,264,629 165,659 598,088 715,234 865,113 1,032,275 1,206,138 1,392,232 203,383 244,732 288,402 340,303 400,651 470,827 551,552 1,614,359Asia 1,847,733935 245,0522,082,161 297,9702,304,715 359,9552,512,033 431,1152,702,525 505,669 Steep203,383 city 244,732 288,402 growth 340,303 400,651 470,827 551,552 Asia1,614,359 9351,847,733 245,052 2,082,161 297,970 2,304,715 359,955 2,512,033 431,115 2,702,525 505,669 642,423 744,485 858,242 983,327 1,119,192 1,264,629 2,875,874598,088 3,034,947715,234 3,180,227865,113 3,309,6941,032,275 1,206,138 1,392,232 642,423 744,485 858,242 983,327 1,119,192 1,264,629 2,875,874 3,034,947 3,180,227 3,309,694 1,614,359 1,847,733598,088 2,082,161715,234 2,304,715865,113 2,512,0331,032,275 2,702,5251,206,138 1,392,232 Africa 903 196,891 214,010 233,419 255,217 281,580 312,568 1,614,359 1,847,733 2,082,161 2,304,715 2,512,033 2,702,525 348,583 389,617 Africa431,904 903 476,198196,891 522,699214,010 570,817233,419 621,583255,217 281,580 312,568 2,875,874 3,034,947 3,180,227 3,309,694 Urban and348,583 rural389,617 431,904population 476,198 522,699 570,817 by 621,583major regions, 1950-2050Asia 935 1,158,337(millions)2,875,874 1,251,3233,034,947 1,347,7283,180,227 1,455,0713,309,694 1,629,324 674,489Africa 726,647903 196,891774,635 214,010817,562 233,419854,848 255,217886,234 281,580910,632 312,568 1,794,968 1,922,352Asia 2,041,737 935 2,167,2061,158,337 2,264,3081,251,323 2,326,8131,347,728 1,455,071 1,629,324 Africa674,489 903726,647 196,891 774,635 214,010 817,562 233,419 854,848 255,217 886,234 281,580 910,632 312,568 926,970Africa348,583 903389,617 Africa 33,004 41,511431,904 903 53,310 33,004 68,699476,198 41,511 86,568 53,310 107,750522,699 68,699 86,568 134,220570,817 107,750 165,659621,583 134,220 165,659 2,330,633 2,316,5191,794,968 2,293,321 1,922,352 2,260,805 2,041,737 2,218,097 2,167,206 2,165,216 2,264,308 2,326,813 348,583926,970 389,617 431,904 476,198 522,699 570,817 621,583 Asia 935 1,158,337 1,251,323 1,347,728 1,455,071 1,629,324 203,383674,489 244,732726,647203,383 288,402774,635244,732 340,303817,562288,402 400,651854,848340,303 470,827886,234400,651 551,552910,632470,827 551,552 2,102,362Asia 2,026,017935 Asia2,330,633 245,052 1,935,230 9352,316,519 297,970 1,832,5261,158,337 2,293,321 359,9551,251,323 2,260,805 431,1151,347,728 2,218,097 505,6691,455,071 2,165,216 1,629,324 674,489 726,647 774,635 817,562 854,848 886,234 910,632 1,794,968 1,922,352Asia 2,041,737935 245,0522,167,206 297,9702,264,308 359,9552,326,813 431,115 505,669 642,423926,970 744,485642,423 858,242744,485 983,327858,242 1,119,192983,327 1,264,6291,119,192 1,264,629 598,088 715,2341,794,9682,102,362 865,113 1,922,3522,026,017 1,032,275 2,041,7371,935,230 1,206,138 2,167,2061,832,526 1,392,2322,264,308 2,326,813 926,970 2,330,633 2,316,519598,088 2,293,321715,234 2,260,805865,113 2,218,0971,032,275 2,165,2161,206,138 1,392,232 1,614,3592,102,362 1,847,7332,026,0172,330,6331,614,359 2,082,161 1,935,2302,316,5191,847,733 2,304,715 1,832,5262,293,3212,082,161 2,512,033 2,260,8052,304,715 2,702,525 2,218,0972,512,033 2,165,2162,702,525 2,875,874 3,034,9472,102,3622,875,874 3,180,227 2,026,0173,034,947 3,309,694 1,935,2303,180,227 1,832,5263,309,694 Africa 903 Africa196,891 903214,010 196,891 233,419214,010 255,217233,419 281,580255,217 312,568281,580 312,568 348,583 389,617348,583 431,904389,617 Urban 476,198431,904 522,699476,198 570,817522,699 621,583570,817 621,583 Rural Asia 935 Asia1,158,337 9351,251,323 1,158,337 1,347,728 1,251,323 1,455,071 1,347,728 1,629,324 1,455,071 1,629,324 674,489 726,647674,489 774,635726,647 817,562774,635 854,848817,562 886,234854,848 910,632886,234 910,632 3500 1,794,968 1,922,3521,794,968 2,041,737 1,922,352 2,167,206 2,041,737 2,264,308 2,167,206 2,326,813 2,264,308 2,326,813 1400926,970 926,970 2,330,633 35002,316,5192,330,633 2,293,321 2,316,519 2,260,805 2,293,321 2,218,097 2,260,805 2,165,216 2,218,097 2,165,216 1400 2,102,362 2,026,0172,102,362 1,935,230 2,026,017 1,832,526 1,935,230 1,832,526 3500 3500 1400 1400 3000 Africa1200 1200 Asia3000 3000 1200 1200 3000 25003500 3500 10001400 10001400 2500 2500 1000 1000 2500 1200 1200 20003000 3000 800 800 2000 2000 800 800 2000 1000 1000 15002500 2500 600 600 1500 1500 600 600 1500 2000 800 800 1000 2000 400 400 1000 1000 400 400 1000 600 600 5001500 1500 200 200 500 500 200 200 500 400 10000 1000 0 4000 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 500 500

Latin Europe 908 280,602 311,084 344,397 380,373 412,199 Latin Europe 908 280,602 311,084 344,397 380,373 412,199 America0 and the Caribbean0 904 69,264 86,841 108,540 134,588 163,402 441,1530 466,318 0 485,384 502,983 511,556 514,545 196,257 232,955 America271,280 and the 311,620Caribbean 352,614 904 69,264393,619 86,841 108,540430,379 134,588 163,402 523,263 536,611 441,153547,531 466,318557,585 485,384566,299 502,983573,494 511,556 514,545 Latin 196,257 232,955 271,280 311,620 352,614 393,619 430,379 Europe 908 523,263280,602 536,611311,084 547,531344,397 557,585380,373 566,299412,199 573,494 465,246America and499,460 the CaribbeanLatin531,235 904560,030 69,264 86,841585,347 108,540 607,050 134,588 625,144 163,402 579,462441,153 584,494466,318 Europe 588,431 485,384 908 591,041 280,602502,983 311,084511,556 344,397514,545 380,373 412,199 639,626 650,479 America465,246 and the499,460 Caribbean 531,235 904 69,264560,030 86,841 108,540585,347 134,588607,050 163,402625,144 1950 579,462 584,494 588,431 591,041 2010 2050 Latin196,257 232,955 1950271,280 311,620 352,614 393,619 430,379 2010 2050 523,263 536,611441,153 547,531466,318 557,585485,384 566,299502,983 573,494511,556 514,545 196,257639,626 232,955650,479 271,280 311,620 352,614 393,619 430,379 Europe 908 266,685 264,152 259,456 253,217 243,679 America465,246 and the Caribbean499,460Latin 531,235 904 98,104560,030 104,866 585,347 111,519 607,050 118,017 625,144 579,462 584,494523,263 588,431536,611 591,041547,531 557,585 566,299 573,494 465,246 499,460 531,235 560,030 585,347 607,050 625,144 234,970 226,551 Europe221,415 908217,514 266,685 215,866264,152 212,232259,456 253,217 243,679 122,975639,626 126,816650,479 America129,371 and the 131,114Caribbean 131,411 904 98,104130,033 104,866 127,810 111,519 118,017 579,462 584,494 588,431 591,041 Latin 639,626 650,479 207,473 201,588 234,970194,536 226,551186,592 221,415177,591 217,514167,739 215,866 212,232 126,659 124,836 Latin122,975122,977 126,816120,947 129,371118,748 131,114116,260 131,411113,258 130,033 127,810 Europe 908 266,685 264,152 259,456 253,217 243,679 America and the Caribbean126,659 124,836 904 98,104 122,977104,866 120,947 111,519 118,748 118,017 116,260 113,258 157,460 147,332 Europe207,473137,598 908201,588128,216 266,685 194,536 264,152 186,592 259,456 177,591 253,217 167,739 243,679 109,604 105,302 America100,476 and the Caribbean 904 98,104 104,866 111,519 118,017 234,970 226,551157,460 221,415 147,332 217,514 137,598 215,866 128,216 212,232 122,975 126,816109,604 129,371 105,302 131,114 100,476 131,411 130,033 127,810 207,473 201,588234,970 194,536226,551 186,592221,415 177,591217,514 167,739215,866 212,232 Latin126,659 124,836122,975Latin 122,977126,816 120,947129,371 118,748131,114 116,260131,411 113,258130,033 127,810 Europe 908 280,602Europe 311,084908 280,602 344,397 311,084 380,373 344,397 412,199 380,373 412,199 157,460 147,332207,473 137,598201,588 128,216194,536 186,592 177,591 167,739 America109,604 and the105,302 Caribbean126,659America 100,476 and the 904124,836 Caribbean 69,264 86,841122,977 108,540 904 120,947 69,264 134,58886,841 118,748108,540 163,402 116,260 134,588 113,258 163,402 Europe441,153 466,318157,460441,153 485,384 147,332466,318 502,983 137,598485,384 511,556 128,216502,983 514,545 511,556 514,545 196,257Latin 232,955109,604 America271,280 105,302 311,620 100,476 352,614 and 393,619 the430,379 Caribbean 196,257 232,955 271,280 311,620 352,614 393,619 430,379 523,263 536,611 547,531 557,585 566,299 573,494 523,263 536,611 547,531 557,585 566,299 573,494 465,246 499,460465,246 531,235 499,460 560,030 531,235 585,347 560,030 607,050 585,347 625,144 607,050 625,144 579,462 584,494 588,431 591,041 600 579,462 584,494 588,431 591,041 700 639,626 650,479639,626 650,479 600 Latin 700Latin Europe 908 266,685Europe 264,152908 266,685 259,456 264,152 253,217 259,456 243,679 253,217 243,679 700America and the CaribbeanAmerica and the 904 Caribbean 98,104 104,866 904 111,519 98,104 104,866 118,017 111,519 118,017 600234,970 600226,551234,970 221,415 226,551 217,514 221,415 215,866 217,514 212,232 215,866 212,232 122,975 126,816700 122,975129,371 126,816 131,114 129,371 131,411 131,114 130,033 131,411 127,810 130,033 127,810 207,473 201,588207,473 194,536 201,588 186,592 194,536 177,591 186,592 167,739 177,591 167,739 600 126,659 124,836126,659 122,977 124,836 120,947 122,977 118,748 120,947 116,260 118,748 113,258 116,260 113,258 157,460 147,332157,460 137,598 147,332 128,216 137,598 128,216 109,604 105,302600109,604 100,476 105,302 100,476 500 500 600 600 500 500 600 600 500700 500700 400 400 500 500 400 400 600 600 500 500 400 400 400 300 300 400 500 500 300 300 300 300 400 400 300 300 200 200 400 400 200 200 200 200 300 300 200 200 300 300 100 100 100 100 100 100 200 100200 100 2000 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1001950100 2010 2050 100 100 1950 2010 2050 Northern America 905 109,667 125,350 142,856 157,787 170,691 178,973 188,118Northern America199,457 212,088905 109,667 228,607 125,350 247,911 142,856 157,787 Oceania 909 7,907 9,177 10,580 12,085 13,891 15,447 16,384 Oceania 909 7,907 9,177 10,580 12,085 13,891 15,447 16,384 265,611 282,480 298,961170,691 314,905178,973 330,040188,118 344,444199,457 358,154212,088 228,607 247,911 17,603 19,056 20,486 21,924 23,619 25,857 27,852 29,825 31,758 17,603 19,056 20,486 21,924 23,619 25,857 27,852 29,825 31,758 371,234Northern 383,770 America 395,985265,611905 109,667282,480 125,350298,961 142,856314,905 157,787330,040 344,444 358,154 33,6140 35,379 37,0790 38,737 40,346 0 170,691 0178,973 Northern371,234188,118 America 383,770 199,457 905395,985 212,088109,667 228,607125,350 247,911142,856 157,787 Oceania 90933,614 7,907 35,379 9,177 10,580 37,079 12,085 38,737 13,891 40,346 15,447 16,384 170,691 178,973 188,118 199,457 212,088 228,607 247,911 Oceania 909 7,907 9,177 10,580 12,085 13,891 15,447 16,384 Northern265,611 America 282,480 905 298,961 61,948 314,905 61,610 330,040 61,461 344,444 61,437 358,154 Oceania17,603 19,056 909 20,486 4,769 4,988 21,924 5,193 23,619 5,401 25,857 5,615 27,852 6,042 29,825 31,758 265,611 282,480 298,961 314,905 330,040 344,444 358,154 17,603Oceania 19,056 20,486 909 4,769 21,924 4,988 23,619 5,193 25,857 5,401 27,852 5,615 29,825 6,042 31,758 60,594371,234 63,387383,770 66,336Northern395,985 America 67,622 69,074 905 61,948 67,142 61,610 65,378 61,461 61,437 6,58633,614 7,288 35,379 7,911 37,079 8,558 9,206 38,737 9,913 40,346 10,736 11,503 12,230 12,894 371,234 383,770 395,985 33,6146,586 35,379 7,288 37,079 7,911 8,558 38,737 9,206 40,346 9,913 10,736 11,503 12,230 12,894 63,621 62,049 60,67760,594 59,488 63,387 58,432 66,336 57,213 67,622 55,792 69,074 67,142 65,378 13,482 13,987 14,396 14,698 14,887 Oceania 909 4,769 4,988 5,193 5,401 5,615 6,042 North America 13,482 13,987 14,396 14,698 14,887 Northern America 63,621 905 61,948 62,049 61,610 60,677 61,461 59,488 61,437 58,432 57,213 55,792 54,233 52,578 50,878 Oceania 909 4,769 4,988 5,193 5,401 5,615 6,042 60,594 63,387 Northern54,233 66,336 America 52,578 67,622 905 50,878 69,074 61,948 67,142 61,610 65,378 61,461 61,437 6,586 7,288 7,911 8,558 9,206 9,913 10,736 11,503 12,230 12,894 6,586 7,288 7,911 8,558 9,206 9,913 10,736 11,503 12,230 12,894 63,621 62,049 60,594 60,677 63,387 59,488 66,336 58,432 67,622 57,213 69,074 55,792 67,142 65,378 13,482 13,987 14,396 14,698 14,887 13,482 13,987 14,396 14,698 14,887 54,233 52,578 63,621 50,878 62,049 60,677 59,488 58,432 57,213 55,792 Northern America 54,233Northern905 America109,667 52,578 125,350 50,878905 109,667142,856 125,350157,787 142,856 157,787 170,691 178,973 170,691188,118 178,973199,457 188,118212,088 199,457228,607 212,088247,911 228,607 247,911 45 Oceania 909Oceania 7,907 9,177 10,580 909 12,085 7,907 9,177 13,891 10,580 15,447 12,085 16,384 13,891 15,447 16,384 450 17,603 19,056 45 20,486 21,924 23,619 25,857 27,852 29,825 31,758 265,611 450282,480 265,611298,961 282,480314,905 298,961330,040 314,905344,444 330,040358,154 344,444 358,154 17,603 19,056 20,486 21,924 23,619 25,857 27,852 29,825 31,758 371,234 383,770 371,234395,985 383,770 395,985 4533,614 35,379 37,07933,614 38,737 35,379 40,346 37,079 38,737 40,346 450 45 Northern America450 Northern 905 America 61,948 61,610 905 61,948 61,461 61,610 61,437 61,461 61,437 40 Oceania 909Oceania 4,769 4,988 909 5,193 4,769 5,401 4,988 5,615 5,193 5,401 6,042 5,615 6,042 400 60,594 63,387 60,594 66,336 63,387 67,622 66,336 69,074 67,622 67,142 69,074 65,378 67,142 65,378 6,586 7,288 40 7,9116,586 8,558 7,288 9,206 9,913 7,911 10,736 8,558 9,206 11,503 9,913 12,230 10,736 12,894 11,503 12,230 12,894 63,621 400 62,049 63,621 60,677 62,049 59,488 60,677 58,432 59,488 57,213 58,432 55,792 57,213 55,792 13,482 13,987 14,39613,482 14,698 13,987 14,887 14,396 14,698 14,887 54,233 52,578 54,233 50,878 52,578 50,878 40 400 400 40 350 350 35 35 45 45 450350 350450 35 35 300 300 30 30 400300 400 4030 40 250 300 30 250 25 25 350250 350 35 35 250 25 25 200 200 20 20 300200 300 3020 30 150 200 20 150 15 15 250150 250 25 25 150 15 15 100 100 10 10 200 200 20 20 100 100 10 10 50 5 5 150 50 50 150 155 15 50 0 5 0 0 0 100 100 100 10 19500 0 2010 2050 0 1950 2010 2050 50 50 5 5

0 0 0 0 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision”. New York, 2012

Transforming cities 11 This is an issue requiring urgent resolution. For most of human history, the world has been overwhelmingly rural. But the population balance tipped toward cities just five years ago. Now the urban population in developing economies is slated to jump to 5.1 billion by 2050 from 2.7 million in 2011. Upwardly spiraling population growth will exacerbate existing urban problems and create a host of new ones.

Without profound and lasting solutions to these problems, the world’s great cities— and others on the cusp of greatness—are likely to decline. That decline could end Let’s transform the the promise of the game-changing intellectual, economic, technological and social paradigm. Don’t be solutions historically born in cities. The very foundation of social progress is at risk. driven by the current context. Be playful “As we add 2 billion more people to the world, urban centers are swelling at and analytic. the seams,” warned Judith Rodin, The Rockefeller Foundation’s president, at the meeting’s opening. “This presents enormous opportunities. But urban Judith Rodin, president, trends are accelerating inequality and urban degradation. We need to reimagine The Rockefeller Foundation neighborhoods, public spaces, transit, governance and pro-poor housing so that they are more resilient to shocks and stresses. We need a refreshed model.”

The more than 20 experts from government, industry, academia and activist groups who gathered in Bellagio arrived eager to explore future trends, to lay the groundwork for more equitable and resilient cities in the future. The rich mix of participants included Sheela Patel, founder of India’s Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centers (SPARC); Albert Chan, an architect and director of planning and development at Shui on Land with deep experience developing China’s eco- cities; Karin Ireton, a South African affordable-housing innovator and director of sustainability at Standard Bank; Professor Steven Koonin, an urban big data expert and director for the Center of Urban Science and Progress at New York University; and Dr. Joan Clos, executive director of UN-Habitat and former mayor of Barcelona. (See a full list of participants at the end of the report.)

12 Transforming cities Robert Garris, managing director of the Foundation’s Bellagio Programs, is leading the event series. Eugénie Birch and Susan Wachter, professors and co- directors at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research, directed the first meeting on cities. The Economist Intelligence Unit contributed a special anthology of reprinted articles on urbanization from The Economist newspaper, and Vijay Vaitheeswaran, the publication’s China business editor, led a wrap- up session. Finally, Stephanie Draper, James Goodman and Jonathon Porritt, of Forum for the Future (FFF), an organization with future visioning and scenario development expertise, conducted valuable pre-meeting research, shaped the agenda and facilitated the sessions. Midway through the meeting, a lunch with participants from a joint project between the Bellagio Center and online innovators community PopTech injected a fresh dose of energy with information about many big data projects they are pursuing.

The participants identified and explored complex, interlinked trends to better understand the trajectories of city and informal settlement development. They examined the issues and opportunities in microscenarios, with an eye to shifting urban trajectories for the better, and developed a number of new insights that pushed forward thinking and action in urban planning and other fields. Participants came up with four compelling projects to test and perhaps implement in the months ahead. They also developed stronger relationships with other leaders that could help them work toward enduring solutions for urban problems associated with rising affluence, climate change and population growth.

Transforming cities 13

The conversation

Cities are a complex and dynamic mix of infrastructure, governing bodies, ecosystems, processes and people. What will they be like in 2025, and what can we do to shape them?

To tease out the problems and inspire fresh thinking about cities, Forum for the Future proposed a series of three discussions: Trends (momentous, trackable shifts), Microscenarios (mini- versions of the future), and Future Solutions (aspirational, concrete projects that apply new insights).

1. TRENDS

For a sense of how cities might evolve by 2025, participants first discussed the most powerful urban trends—positive and negative. This vision, they 1 believed, would help identify future regulatory, financial, technological or human interventions that might shift the urbanization trajectory.

Organizers started with 300 trends identified in pre-meeting interviews TRENDS with participants and narrowed them down to the 80 most oft-cited ones. Futurescaper, an analytical tool developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, helped measure trends for frequency and correlation with other trends. The link between food prices and social protest is one such example.

Clustered trends were then mapped for a visual sense of the intertwined and linked drivers of urban problems, and their likely unintended consequences. Participants next voted on and discussed their forecasts for the most powerful trends, and their causes and effects. Their final selection and key insights follow in their perceived order of impact.

16 Transforming cities

1. Poor planning/short-termism In a resource-stretched and politically volatile world, governments will most likely make decisions that solve urgent problems but fail to address long-term issues. Causes will include rapid urbanization and poor governance. Effects will include 1 increased pressure on services and dysfunctional cities and housing markets. 2. Vulnerability to climate shocks The Asian tsunami in 2004 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012 made visible the impact TRENDS of climate change on coastal cities. As the planet’s temperatures further rise, so will the frequency and intensity of storms, floods, drought and heat waves. Among the causes of cities’ vulnerability will be poor planning, short-term governance time horizons and increased exposure as coastal urban populations grow. Effects include infrastructure breakdown, business disruption and the marginalization of the poor in increasingly vulnerable neighborhoods. 3. Decentralization and grassroots action Many cities will provide insufficient or poor quality citywide public services. As a response, affluent communities will meet their own security, water, energy, and transportation needs through private sources. But, increasingly, poor urban dwellers will do the same, as a response to public service failure. They will create their own private alternatives to solve urban problems. The potentially positive side effects of such local action will include more resilience and localism, and better local governance. But weaker central planning may also be a consequence. 4. Division within the city Many poor city dwellers will have few livelihood options. The flow of scarce municipal resources to more affluent areas also means basic public services will rarely reach those most in need. The response will often be unrest in underserved areas and ambivalence in fenced-off pockets of affluence. This vicious cycle will diminish the quality of public services such as mass transit and vital water, waste-collection and power-provision services. 5. ICT/Access to information/Big data Planners will increasingly harness data and analytics to fine-tune or deliver new services. Insights gleaned may also fuel profound change through campaigns or protests. Effects will include a more active citizenry, better local governance, greater individualism, more opportunity for creative entrepreneurial activity, and social protests. However, data will also present issues linked to ownership, privacy, undesirable use of data and compensation for its use. 6. Social protest Mass demonstrations in Brazil and Iran are just two recent examples of groups harnessing an upswell of frustration through social media to push for change. The causes are complex and varied. They include insecure livelihoods, autocratic leaders, rising food prices, the poor quality of infrastructure and insufficient schools. These movements may grow along with their key drivers. In response, new forms of governance will emerge.

18 Transforming cities 2. MICROSCENARIOS

To incubate ideas, participants transitioned into small-group microscenario discussions. Developing these mini-visions of the future allowed participants 2 to analyze what works in cities today and to imagine what might materially improve them if current trends intensify, wane or converge with powerful emerging trends. Microscenarios also help inspire interventions to reshape urban environments. Participants were urged to think creatively about ways to design adaptable solutions, align stakeholder interests and leverage cross- sectoral expertise and resources. These three microscenarios took shape by blending overlapping elements from the seven trends first explored. MICROSCENARIOS

1. Division within the city:

KEY INSIGHT: Affluent and poor communities pursuing their own needs through privatization and protests could create a tipping point around governance and unleash greater entrepreneurial activity.

Eugénie Birch of UPenn noted the loss of a shared vision and the lack of a public will to address common issues as causes of a growing urban divide. Joan Clos of UN- Habitat added insecure livelihoods as a cause, and forecast more social unrest as a consequence. Solomon Prakash, founder, Maya Organic and LabourNet pointed to rising land prices and slum growth as effects; others anticipated more urban fragmentation, migration, density and climate change vulnerability in poor areas. Ashvin Dayal of The Rockefeller Foundation projected a further crumbling of public services “because the elite will no longer be stakeholders in these services.”

The group expected the divide to grow in scope and intensity by 2025. They recommended that planners focus on public service provision to reverse or reduce Cities are not the the trend toward city division. Sameh Wahba of the World Bank said: “[Sufficient] problem—they are land, housing, transportation and economic opportunities will be major determinants the pressure cooker. of how cities function in the future. In the Middle East, it’s about access to jobs, political voice and participation. In downturns, these divisions will be more acute. Unrest in an urban area Brazilian cities exploded despite 10 years of stellar poverty reduction.” has the potential to be disruptive to a whole lot To address income gaps caused by insecure livelihoods, participants proposed of people. urban job development programs and cottage industry. To more efficiently target Karin Ireton, water and power pricing in poorer neighborhoods, they recommended devices Standard Bank such as smart meters. To help resolve social inequalities, participants proposed multi-sectoral collaboration on common “pain points” such as skills shortages and poor health-services provision. In this regard, Mr Prakash highlighted industry associations joining forces to address poor sanitary conditions. “‘If it’s good for business, it’s good for us,’ they say,” he said, of poor sanitary conditions linked to street vendors, which are often beyond government control.

Transforming cities 19 Affluent and poor communities pursuing their own needs through privatization and protests could create a tipping point around governance and unleash greater entrepreneurial activity. Mr Dayal concluded: “My optimistic view is that we reach such a tipping point that the vision of the city changes.” 2 2. Poor planning/short-termism:

KEY INSIGHT: Scarce resources, unknowns such as climate change and mass migrations into cities will overwhelm existing city planning capacity.

This will result in urban sprawl, socio-economic segregation, environmental

MICROSCENARIOS degradation, anti-government sentiment and poor public services. Barriers to longer-term planning will include complex and costly processes, entrenched interests, and short election/political cycles. Other obstacles will include insufficient data about citywide access to and consumption of basic public services to help planners meet and anticipate needs.

To help counter a future of poor planning, the group proposed a number of possible solutions. These included public data forums to collect, analyze and distribute relevant urban data about the availability, cost and use of public services.

Such data could be used by independent think tanks to provide planning guidance. New data would also help fairly price new or improved services – perhaps in a decentralized manner or on a smaller scale – for informal settlements. Participants also suggested innovative tax schemes, similar to a carbon tax, to manage and appropriately price the use of water, vehicles and electricity based on demand and consumption levels.

20 Transforming cities 3. Climate shocks:

KEY INSIGHT: Effects could include a growing social divide, more crime, unrest, and competition for safe land, but climate change might also spark 2 technological innovation and a new urban-resilience industry.

Participants anticipated little progress in reducing carbon-dioxide levels within a decade. They expected more extreme weather, natural disasters, disruptive events and displaced people as a consequence. The group pointed to rising insurance costs, flooding, food insecurity, urban migration and water scarcity as likely impacts, which would vary by region and income level. The developing world MICROSCENARIOS would bear most human costs. “Recurring climate shocks may prevent developing cities from catching up,” cautioned Vijay Vaitheeswaran of The Economist.

The secondary effects could include a growing social divide, more crime, unrest and competition for safe land. But climate change might also spark technological innovation and a new urban-resilience industry.

To prepare for and adapt to the inevitable changes wrought by climate change, participants recommended better coordination between city, state and regional officials before, during and after major weather-related incidents. To share ideas about what worked in one region that might be applicable to another they proposed global city networks. To minimize climate change’s impact on buildings and neighborhoods, participants recommended better climate-resilient building codes. Finally, to help solve water scarcity, which is already under way due to warmer temperatures, they proposed rainwater harvesting.

Transforming cities 21

3. FUTURE SOLUTIONS

Groundbreaking solutions emerge from crises. By describing the contours of a concrete problem, articulating current obstacles and efforts to overcome them, 3 and setting precise goals to achieve them, participants hoped to generate creative ideas that might help solve problems today and serve as a launchpad for powerful solutions tomorrow.

In the third portion of the event, participants formed small working groups to brainstorm a solution to a specific problem, as a way to prepare for the future scenarios they had sketched out earlier. They were urged to seek transformative solutions that were material, multi-sectoral, replicable, scalable FUTURE SOLUTIONS and systemic, and that would “bend the trend.” After brainstorming, participants were also asked to produce an action plan, with potential solutions, a road map and a timeline. The impact of the informal economy is The four projects aim to involve local communities and city and state authorities extraordinary. It isn’t just in their implementation. They also make use of new data collection and analysis large companies that are methods, and seek alternatives to failed policy and market initiatives. providing community- sourced solutions.

Judith Rodin, The Rockefeller Foundation 1. Power to the people: Decentralized services for slums

Informal settlements suffer from poor access to basic services such as clean water, sanitation and electricity. Governments struggle to supply services to these areas because they are perceived to be poorly planned, impenetrable and costly places in which to install such services. This project, spearheaded by Sheela Patel of SPARC, seeks to empower local communities through the decentralized delivery of market-based technologies such as rainwater harvesting, urban farming and portable toilets. It harnesses locally collected data, aggregated purchasing power and innovative micro-finance schemes to provide affordable, accessible and ecofriendly services to many informal settlements. Resilience is about enabling local Phase 1 will focus on encouraging communities to map their surroundings, collect communities to respond data and develop a viable business model with the help of utilities, governments to shocks. They are and foundations. The success of the project will be measured by the number of new usually the first to lose services provided, the prices paid for them, and carbon footprints. power and to suffer from extreme weather Test sites in Lusaka, Bangalore, Bangladesh and Bangkok have been proposed. Work has begun on measuring the amount of existing urban agriculture on slum Sheela Patel, founder dwellers’ roofs across SPARC’s global informal settlement network. director, India’s Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centers

Transforming cities 23 SUCCESSFUL URBAN PROJECTS Innovation is often viewed as an evolution, rather than a revolution. Many systems, technologies, processes or approaches that help solve problems in one city today may profoundly improve lives in other urban enclaves if transferred, in culturally sensitive and appropriate ways that meet the needs of local communities. To identify high-potential solutions and inspire fresh thinking for others, participants next singled out exisiting projects in their own sphere. Many of these solutions, participants observed, succeeded because they involved deep collaboration between several sectors:

• Slum mapping in India as an advocacy and investment tool. • Chinese farmers using rooftop solar panels to heat their water and save energy costs. Poor dwelling owners could earn additional income through a rooftop leasing program. • Community toilet blocks for slums, which improve sanitation, health and safety, especially for women and the vulnerable. • A World Bank—backed integrated land-use project in Rio de Janeiro, involving the transportation, water, housing and environmental ministries, with innovative incentives for local workers to use public transport, to limit growth on the periphery.

iShacks: Lighting Up a South African Township Wood is a popular energy for cooking, outdoor motion director and a cell-phone heating and lighting in many informal charger. The iShack was developed by settlements. But the use of wood, brush, researchers at South Africa’s Stellenbosch dung and other biomass materials as fuel University’s Sustainability Institute. In in traditional cookstoves causes more 2011, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation deaths globally than either malaria or awarded the group a grant to build AIDS, according to the United Nations. 100 such homes in a township outside The iShack may provide an innovative Stellenbosch. Developers believe this alternative. The product is a complete type of small-scale innovation can bring shack built in part from locally discarded big returns to the more than 60% of materials such as cardboard and Tetra Sub-Saharan Africa’s urban residents in Pak boxes. Solar panels grace the roof, informal settlements. supplying power for up to three lights, an

24 Transforming cities 2. Public data forum for informal settlements Citywide data exchange portal

Timely information about the cost, price, availability, consumption and reliability of 3 supply of basic public goods helps city managers, entrepreneurs and communities make informed investment and implementation decisions. But the dearth of data about rapidly growing slums in Africa and Asia means that they are often overlooked and underserved. This project strives to create a centralized, city- level data portal with information about public electricity, water, sanitation and healthcare services in informal settlements. Through this, stakeholders can share dynamic and real-time data and develop new policies, applications, services and innovative business models. FUTURE SOLUTIONS Project backers include the Penn Institute for Urban Research, Wipro and other Bangalore-based partners. Efforts are under way to form a consortium of businesses, technology experts, local organizations and government officials. They hope to expand the application of currently available data, and to identify data gaps.

Portal work will begin immediately in Bangalore via a project managed by Haripasad Hegde, Wipro’s global head of operations. “This project is about giving people and organizations the information they need to build resilience and equity, and the entrepreneurs the information they need to build solutions,” said Robert Garris of The Rockefeller Foundation.

Steven Koonin of NYU added that the data needs to be “accessible, relevant, transparent, timely, aggregated and granular.” He believes the right data can improve planning, policies and opportunities in the informal sector, and lead to new services, products and more citizen engagement. A lot of innovations are happening based on the survival strategies 3. Rooftop Cities of poor people in Maximizing productive capacity of rooftops cities. The bottom 40% is excluded. We More urban residents and rising spending power among the affluent in developing need to change our cities have made urban land scarcer. Rooftops may be one of the solutions to expand space within crowded cities, in particular in low-rise neighborhoods like management mindset informal settlements. and systems delivery. There are scalable For centuries, dense cities have used rooftops to gather, to garden and to store opportunities for goods; rooftops now host satellite dishes, solar panels and cisterns for rainwater hundreds of millions collection. Other possibilities include cafes, galleries, greenhouses, playgrounds of people. and artists’ studios. Haripasad Hegde, global head of operations, Wipro The group aspires to increase space and livelihood opportunities by enabling citywide uptake and direction for rooftop development. Many rooftop projects could be funded with the help of innovative financing schemes such as carbon offsets.

Transforming cities 25 The team also wants to develop pro-rooftop policies that encourage landlords and tenants to team up with local entrepreneurs.

“The way land is developed in many African cities is very wasteful,” said rooftop enthusiast Karin Ireton of South Africa’s Standard Bank. “Sprawl should go up, 3 not out.” Ms. Ireton is leading the project with Albert Chan of Shui on Land and Mr. Dayal of The Rockefeller Foundation. Potential pilot project locations include Bangkok, Lusaka, Ho Chin Minh City and Guangzhou. Several proofs of concept already exist, including the Rizhao solar city in China (see below).

The team is also exploring ways to work with the United Nations Environment Program and the finance and insurance industries to use rooftop development to help cities become more resilient. The group also seeks “champions” pioneering

FUTURE SOLUTIONS unconventional rooftop use, and is studying ways to collect relevant data for baseline studies of existing rooftop use, and examining city tax, fiscal and special- use zone codes.

Rizhao: China’s solar city Few places have captured the sun’s power the city had cut its energy consumption more effectively than the coastal Chinese by 30%, saving an estimated 52,860 tons city of Rizhao, which means “City of of carbon emissions annually. Rizhao has Sunshine.” More than a decade ago, city become one of the top 10 Chinese cities officials set a goal of becoming carbon in air quality. A massive public-education neutral by generating electricity from campaign was key to Rizhao’s success. rooftop and wall solar collectors rather than Now all new buildings must include solar coal-fired plants. Today, with the help of heaters. Subsidies were also channeled to local photovoltaic makers and academics, research and development rather than to the city of 3 million, in Northern China, has end users, helping cut the price of solar nearly attained that goal. More than 99% heaters to match that of conventional of households have solar-powered heaters heaters. Foreign investment in the city is and almost all traffic signals and streetlights up substantially, too; businesses now flock are powered by photovoltaic cells. By 2007, to Rizhao for cleantech insight.

26 Transforming cities Integrated land planning in Rio: Keeping informal settlement at bay 3 How do you encourage people to live trains and ferries. A state subsidy caps in formal homes instead of in informal prices for poor households on the city’s settlements? Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, periphery. By encouraging residents to is attempting to do just that with an remain in formal homes with good access integrated territorial development project to transportation, jobs and basic services, that gives some help to its poorer the government hopes to decrease residents. One part of the solution is the likelihood of slum growth in the city linked to the Bilhete Unico, an unlimited center. The project is supported by a

FUTURE SOLUTIONS ticket for buses, subways, suburban $485 million loan from the World Bank.

4. Land for the public good Optimizing land use decisions for stronger communities

Business is booming in Zambia, thanks to healthy demand for copper and other metals. But that has led to rapid growth and overcrowding in the capital city of Lusaka. The all-too-predictable result: urban sprawl, unmanageable congestion and slums with few basic services and poor or nonexistent streets. Greater Lusaka supports a population of 3.5 million around a city center designed for 8,000.

Through this project, urban experts helped guide Lusaka city officials at the meeting toward extending the developed edges of the city to satellite cities, to create more

Transforming cities 27 green space and to maximize the efficiency of the dense and unplanned inner-city. Intense discussion about what works and doesn’t work in developing cities helped yield ideas for new roads and other infrastructure, with suggestions on how to start or improve water and sanitation services before residents arrive. Challenges they face and explored in the conversation include preserving the rights of existing 3 landowners on the city’s periphery and developing mutually beneficial partnerships with tribal communities. Strong leadership will help drive a solution in Lusaka since the political will for change is high.

This project aims to unlock the city’s inefficient land market and to revise land management policies to create more jobs, better forms of shelter and stronger communities. Initial work will focus on mapping the city, collecting household data, modernizing the property land registration process, forming community groups, and FUTURE SOLUTIONS improving local finances, creditworthiness and the ability to access capital markets. The Lusaka municipal government and the National Ministry for Local Government and Housing are overseeing this project, with likely assistance from the World Bank and UN-Habitat.

28 Transforming cities Conclusion

Thought leaders assembled at The Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center by the Foundation, UPenn IUR, the Economist Intelligence Unit and Forum for the Future were tasked with envisioning a different kind of urbanization. This future can accommodate the estimated 2 billion people who will move to cities in the coming decades, and do so in ways that build resilience and expand opportunities for their most vulnerable residents.

As outlined in this report, powerful trends will shape cities over the next 15 years. These include a diminishing long-term goal setting capacity, growing climate change vulnerability, and sharper gaps between public and private goods delivery.

A new and innovative urban resiliency, shaped by long-term inspirational visions, but drawing on decentralized, short-term, adaptable data-informed action with overlapping collaboration between the public, business and civil society sectors is not only possible, but critical. The conference generated actionable plans to improve land use policies in Zambia, create urban data sharing hubs in India, and beyond as the trends and scenarios are applied to cities throughout the world.

The microsite “Visionaries Unbound” (www.visionariesunbound.com) allows for broad dissemination and discussion of the trends outlined in this report – and will generate a diversity of opinions from a wide audience. Transforming cities – from New York to Mumbai, from Dakar to Rio – will take diverse and innovative leadership as we chart a course toward an ever more urban global community.

Transforming cities 29 Transforming Cities Meeting participants

1. Hon. Nicholas K. Banda, MP 9. Haripasad Hegde 16. Jonathon Porritt Deputy Minister of Local Government Global Head, Operations Founder Director and Trustee, and Housing, Zambia Wipro Ltd. Forum for the Future

2. Eugénie Birch 10. Karin Ireton 17. Solomon Prakash Professor, Department of City and Director, Sustainability, The Standard Founder, Maya Organic and LabourNet Regional Planning, School of Design; Bank South Africa Ltd. Co-Director, Penn Institute for Urban 18. Judith Rodin Research; University of Pennsylvania 11. Ferdous Jahan President, The Rockefeller Foundation Associate Professor of Public 3. Albert Chan Administration, University of Dhaka 19. Twarath Sutabutr Director of Planning and Development, Academic Coordinator, BRAC University Deputy Director General, Department of Shui on Land Development Institute Alternative Energy, Ministry of Energy, Bangkok, Thailand 4. Joan Clos 12. Claudia Juech Undersecretary and Executive Direc- Managing Director, The Rockefeller 20. Vijay Vaitheeswaran tor, United Nations Human Settlement Foundation China Business Editor, The Economist Programme (UN-HABITAT) 13. Steven Koonin 21. Susan Wachter 5. Ashvin Dayal Professor of Information, Operations Professor of Financial Management, Managing Director, The Rockefeller and Management Sciences, Leonard Real Estate and Finance, The Wharton Foundation N. Stern School of Business; Director, School; Co-Director, Penn Institute for Center for Urban Science and Progress, Urban Research, University of 6. Jinsong Du New York University Pennsylvania Managing Director, Head of Real Estate Research, Credit Suisse 14. Alan Mabin 22. Sameh Wahba Professor of Urbanism, School of Sector Manager, Urban Development 7. Yu Gao Architecture and Planning, Director, and Resilience Unit, World Bank China Country Director, Landesa Rural The City Institute, University of the Development Institute Witwatersrand 23. Danny Zulu Principal economist, Ministry of Local 8. Robert Garris 15. Sheela Patel Government and Housing, Zambia Managing Director, The Rockefeller Founder Director, Society for the Foundation Promotion of Area Resource Centers, Mumbai

30 Transforming cities