2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
2.4 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
2.4.1 Introduction This section provides information on existing demographic and economic conditions and trends in the City of Simi Valley. This encompasses data for population and household characteristics, employment base, construction activity and market conditions. The findings of this section will facilitate discussion of existing and future economic development efforts such as assembly of new and revitalized land areas and business retention and attraction programs. These goals and policies will be developed to ensure that the City is able to establish and maintain a strong economic base and will be linked with land use planning policies. A strong economy not only provides workers with adequate income to afford a high quality of life, but it also provides local government with adequate public revenues to maintain a high quality of public services. The goal is to identify target economic opportunities that are both realistic and compatible with the City’s General Plan vision. In this context, the growth of the City’s economic base will depend on the identification of key growth sectors. Job types, salary and skill levels, income, land availability and location, and housing affordability are also important attributes of the economy. The three main land use policy directions with regards to improving the jobs situation in the City relate to (1) the identification of available land for future office and industrial development; (2) the increase of land use intensity for identified underutilized parcels; and (3) the development of retail opportunities, particularly on older, deteriorated retail sites that present mixed use opportunities.
Regional Setting The City of Simi Valley is located in the southeast corner of Ventura County, bordering the San Fernando Valley and approximately 40 miles away from Downtown Los Angeles. A largely suburban community, residents commute to Los Angeles for work via the Ronald Reagan 118 Freeway or the Southern California Metrolink Commuter Train, which makes several daily trips through Simi Valley into Downtown Los Angeles. The Simi Valley Station, serviced by Amtrak, Metrolink, and Simi Valley Transit buses seven days a week, provides transportation connections from Simi Valley north to Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo, and south to Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. The City has regional air connectivity from a number of airports in the Southern California region. The nearest national airport is Bob Hope Airport located about 25 miles away in Burbank with Los Angeles International Airport about 40 miles away.
Study Area Overview The following section focuses primarily on the City of Simi Valley. Data on neighboring cities and Ventura County are provided for comparing the City’s performance in key areas like population and household growth, employment growth, retail sales performance, and construction activity.
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Additionally, data for Simi Valley is presented since 1970, in order to provide analysis of historic growth trends. These trends are compared to long-term forecasts of demographic and economic change in the City made by the Southern California Council of Governments (SCAG).
2.4.2 Demographic Characteristics This section provides a descriptive profile of existing demographic characteristics and trends including population, households, household income, and education. In addition, key demographics for Ventura County, including population, households, and income are discussed for comparison.
Population and Households The population in the City of Simi Valley has been growing over the past 35 years from 59,832 in 1970 to 122,708 in 2006, as shown in Figure 2.4-1 (Population Growth, City of Simi Valley: 1970 to 2007). The population in the City grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent over this period. However, the population growth rate slowed to an average annual rate of 1.3 percent over the past 10 years. Households have grown from 14,347 in 1970 to 39,815 in 2006 at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent as shown in Figure 2.4-3; this has resulted in a decrease in the average household size from 4.15 in 1970 to 3.06 in 2006. As shown in Table 2.4-1, population and households in the City, as well as in Ventura Country, grew at approximately the same annual rate of 1.0 to 1.3 percent from 1990 to 2000. As shown in Table 2.4-1 (Population and Households: City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the City experienced a decline in terms of the household population growth rate. During the time periods from 1970 to 1980 the household population growth rate in the City was 2.6 percent. However, during the time periods from 2000-2006, the rate in the City was only 1.6 percent. As the City moves towards buildout, the population growth rate has been slowing over the past which has implications for land demand. The declining and stabilizing person per household ratio also influences the mix and pricing of housing.
2.4-2 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
140,000 122,708 (2006) 120,000 121,096 111,351 100,000 100,217 100,400 80,000 85,500 77,500 60,000 69,500 59,832 40,000
20,000
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Figure 2.4-1 Total Population Growth, City of Simi Valley: 1970–2006 SOURCES: SHRA 2007; U.S. Bureau of the Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000; Department of Finance 1970–2006 NOTE: Total Population includes group quarter population in addition to household population. Group quarter population was estimated at 800 persons in 2006, while household population was estimated at 121,908 (as shown in Figure 2.4-2) for a total population of 122,708 (as shown above).
140,000 121,908 120,000 110,551 99,848 100,000 PPH = 3.06 PPH = 3.04 77,178 80,000 PPH = 3.12 59,556 PPH = 3.52 60,000 PPH = 4.15 39,815 40,000 31,998 36,421 14,347 21,933 20,000
0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Household Population Households
Figure 2.4-2 Growth of Household Population and Households: City of Simi Valley: 1970–2006 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.; U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, California Department of Finance, 2006. NOTE: Data for 2006 is from the California Department of Finance.
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Table 2.4-1 Population and Households: City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
Annual Average Growth Rate/Number 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2006 Simi Valley
Household Population 59,556 77,178 99,848 110,551 121,908 2.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 1,762 2,267 1,070 1,893
Households 14,347 21,933 31,998 36,421 39,815 4.3% 3.8% 1.3% 1.5% 759 1,007 442 566
Persons per Household 4.15 3.52 3.12 3.04 3.06 -1.6% -1.2% -0.3% 0.1%
Ventura County
Household Population n/a n/a 655,317 739,985 803,958 n/a n/a 1.2% 1.4% n/a n/a 8,467 10,662
Households 106,469 172,781 217,298 243,234 261,570 5.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% 6,631 4,452 2,594 3,056
Persons per Household 3.43 3.00 3.02 3.04 3.07 -1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Research Network Ltd. U.S. Census, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 California Department of Finance (DOF), 2006
Age Distribution, City and County: 1990 and 2000 As shown in Table 2.4-2, the age composition of the City and the County in 2000 increased where almost 50 percent of their respective populations were in the combined age groups of 35 to 64 and 65 and over. During this period, population in the age group 35 to 64 increased from 36,762 (36.7 percent) to 46,628 (41.9 percent) of the total population. This indicates a growing and experienced workforce population in the City of Simi Valley. However, the population in the age group 18 to 34 in the City declined from 29.9 percent in 1990 to 22.0 percent in 2000. As shown in Figure 2.4-4, the age distribution is illustrated with a percentage comparison between the City and Ventura County.
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Table 2.4-2 Age Distribution, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
Percent of Percent of Jurisdiction 1990 Total 2000 Total Simi Valley Under 18 28,255 28.2% 31,679 28.4% 18 to 34 29,927 29.9% 24,540 22.0% 35 to 64 36,762 36.7% 46,628 41.9% 65 and over 5,273 5.3% 8,504 7.6% Simi Valley Total 100,217 100.0% 111,351 100.0%
Ventura County
Under 18 182,986 27.4% 214,244 28.4% 18 to 34 192,668 28.8% 171,686 22.8% 35 to 64 230,357 34.4% 290,463 38.6% 65 and over 63,005 9.4% 76,804 10.2% Ventura County Total 669,016 100.0% 753,197 100.0%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
45.0% 41.9%
40.0% 36.7%
35.0% 28.4% 28.4% 29.9% 1990 30.0% 2000 25.0% 22.0%
20.0%
15.0% 7.6% 10.0% 5.3% 5.0%
0.0% Under 18 18 to 34 35 to 64 65 and over
Figure 2.4-3 Age Distribution, City of Simi Valley: 1990 and 2000 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.; U.S. Bureau of Census, 1990 and 2000.
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Household Income As shown in Table 2.4-3 (Aggregate and Average Household Income City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 to 2000) and Figure 2.4-4 (Average Household Income, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 to 2000 [in constant 2006 dollars]), the average household income in constant 2006 dollars for the City was $102,851 in 2000. This is about eight percent higher than the average household income for Ventura County at $95,272 in 2000. In comparison, the median household income in the City in 2000 was $89,138, compared to $75,579 in Ventura County in constant 2006 dollars. The median household income for the City remained relatively stable between 1990 and 2000 at around $89,000, in constant 2006 dollars. This is similar to trends in the County. The relatively higher household incomes have implications for expenditures for retail goods and services and the ability to afford housing within Simi Valley. Higher expenditures on retail translate to higher retail sales tax to the City. Further, to the extent that entry worker households have relatively lower household incomes, this has implication for broadening the mix and price of housing. The ability to attract a diverse workforce has important implications for maintaining and expanding competitive strengths of the City’s economy.
Table 2.4-3 Aggregate and Average Household Income, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990–2000
Percent Percent Income Category 1990 Distribution 2000 Distribution Simi Valley
Less than $10,000 1,224 3.8% 1,246 3.4% $10,000 to $24,999 3,060 9.6% 2,975 8.1% $25,000 to $49,999 9,634 30.2% 7,352 20.1% $50,000 to $99,000 15,144 47.5% 15,310 41.9% $100,000 or more 2,848 8.9% 9,660 26.4% Total Households 31,910 100.0% 36,543 100.0%
Average Household Income (Actual dollars) $58,112 $81,196 Average Household Income (in 2006 dollars) $95,298 $102,851
Median Household Income (Actual dollars) $53,967 $70,370 Median Household Income (in 2006 dollars) $88,501 $89,138
Ventury County
Average Household Income (Actual dollars) $54,314 $75,213 Average Household Income (in 2006 dollars) $89,070 $95,272
Median Household Income (Actual dollars) $45,612 $53,967 Median Household Income (in 2006 dollars) $74,799 $75,579
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census 1990 and 2000.
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$105,000 $102,851
$100,000
$95,298 $95,272 $95,000
$89,070 $90,000
$85,000
$80,000 Simi Valley Ventura County 1990 2000
Figure 2.4-4 Average Household Income, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990–2000 (in constant 2006 dollars) SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.; U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
Poverty Status According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the poverty status of families and unrelated individuals in 1999 was determined using 48 thresholds (income cutoffs) arranged in a two dimensional matrix. The matrix consists of family size (from 1 person to 9 or more people) cross-classified by presence and number of family members under 18 years old (from no children present to 8 or more children present). Unrelated individuals and 2-person families were further differentiated by the age of the reference person (RP) (under 65 years old and 65 years old and over). Using these criteria, for example, a family of three individuals including one child had a poverty threshold of $13,410 total annual family income in 1999. A two-person senior householder family with no child had a poverty threshold of $11,440 total annual family income in 1999. As shown in Table 2.4-4 (Individuals with Poverty Status City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the population in poverty increased in the City of Simi Valley from 3.5 percent in 1990 to 5.8 percent in 2000. In comparison, poverty levels in the year 2000 were higher for Ventura County at 9.1 percent than for the City of Simi Valley at 5.8 percent. Also, persons in poverty increased for both the City of Simi Valley and Ventura County from 1990 to 2000. However, the age group of 65 and over in the City experienced the largest increase in poverty from 1990 to 2000 at 132.4 percent. The increasing percentage of individuals in poverty, while showing modest increases, has implications for increasing affordable housing, as well as access to critical public services.
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Table 2.4-4 Individuals with Poverty Status City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000 Percent 1990 2000 Change Change Simi Valley 18 years to 64 years 2,230 3,813 1,583 71.0% 65 years and over 259 602 343 132.4% Related Children under 18 years 1,047 2,038 991 94.7% Total Persons in Poverty 3,536 6,453 2,917 82.5%
Total Population 100,217 111,351 11,134 11.1%
Percent of Total Population 3.5% 5.8%
Ventura County 18 years to 64 years 26,016 38,489 12,473 47.9% 65 years and over 3,421 4,644 1,223 35.7% Related Children under 18 years 18,305 25,407 7,102 38.8% Total Persons in Poverty 47,742 68,540 20,798 43.6%
Total Population 669,016 753,197 84,181 12.6%
Percent of Total Population 7.1% 9.1%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. U.S. Bureau of Census, 1990 and 2000.
Race and Ethnicity As shown in Table 2.4-5 (Race and Ethnicity, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 to 2000), the white population in the City declined from nearly 80.0 percent in 1990 to about 73.0 percent in 2000. In comparison, the Hispanic population in the City increased slightly from 12.7 percent in 1990 to 16.8 percent in 2000. In comparison, the County in comparison had a larger share of the Hispanic population with an increase from 26.4 percent in 1990 to 33.4 percent in 2000. The other racial ethnic groups showed only modest increases with the Black population showing a slight decrease in their percentage of total population.
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Table 2.4-5 Race and Ethnicity, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990– 2000
Percent of Percent 1990 Total 2000 of Total Simi Valley
White 80,096 79.9% 80,908 72.7% Black 1,473 1.5% 1,348 1.2% Asian 5,313 5.3% 6,932 6.2% Other 628 0.6% 791 0.7% Two or more races n/a n/a 2,643 2.4% Hispanic 12,707 12.7% 18,729 16.8% Total 100,217 100.0% 111,351 100.0%
Ventura County
White 440,555 65.9% 427,449 56.8% Black 14,559 2.2% 13,490 1.8% Asian 32,665 4.9% 39,452 5.2% Other 4,285 0.6% 5,678 0.8% Two or more races n/a n/a 15,394 2.0% Hispanic 176,952 26.4% 251,734 33.4% Total 669,016 100.0% 753,197 100.0%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
Education As shown in Table 2.4-6 (Educational Attainment of Population 25 Years and Over City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the levels of educational attainment in 2000 were similar in the City and the County with about 60 percent or more of the population aged 25 years and over having some college education or higher. Also in the year 2000, only about 13 percent of the population in Simi Valley 25 Years and Over lacked a high school diploma, compared to about 20 percent in the County.
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Table 2.4-6 Educational Attainment of Population 25 Years and Over, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000 Percent of Percent Education Level 1990 Total 2000 of Total Simi Valley Bachelor's degree or Graduate/Professional degree 12,947 21.1% 17,732 24.9% Associate degree 6,098 9.9% 6,275 8.8% Some college, no degree 17,789 29.0% 21,043 29.6% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 16,295 26.6% 16,773 23.6% No high school diploma 8,175 13.3% 9,307 13.1% Total Persons 61,304 100.0% 71,130 100.0% Ventura County Bachelor's degree or Graduate/Professional degree 95,598 23.0% 127,136 26.9% Associate degree 35,923 8.6% 37,341 7.9% Some college, no degree 106,548 25.6% 120,471 25.5% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 91,704 22.1% 92,936 19.7% No high school diploma 85,778 20.6% 93,872 19.9% Total Persons 415,551 100.0% 471,756 100.0%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
Labor Force As shown in Table 2.4-7 (Labor Force of Simi Valley: 2000), there were approximately 57,000 residents in the labor force in the City in 2000. The largest category of the labor force was in Management and Professional with 38.2 percent of the total. The next largest category was in Sales and Office with approximately 30.7 percent of the total. This aging labor force distribution has economic development implications when business attraction programs are considered to diversify the job base.
Table 2.4-7 Labor Force of Simi Valley: 2000
Number of City Percent Category Residents of Total Management and Professional 21,788 38.2% Service 7,051 12.4% Sales and Office 17,505 30.7% Farming, Fishing and Forestry 98 0.2% Construction, Extraction and Maintenance 4,812 8.4% Production, transportation, and material moving occ 5,747 10.1% 57,001 100.0%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census 2000.
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Commute Patterns of Residents As shown in Table 2.4-8, based on home-to-workplace data obtained from the Census Bureau’s Local Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD), in 2003 only 18.8 percent of the City’s labor force in primary private sector jobs worked within Simi Valley. This percentage increases if all jobs are considered in the commute counts, including government, self-employed individuals and agricultural workers. For example, the 2005 American Community Survey, which includes all workers, estimates that about 34 percent of individuals lived and worked in Simi Valley. Further, as shown in Table 2.4-8, the LEHD data also indicates that a total 36.0 percent of the private sector labor force was employed within Ventura County (including Simi Valley). Nearly 50.0 percent of the City’s labor force commuted into Los Angeles County. The implications are that increasing and diversifying the local job base should increase the percentage of those who work and live in Simi Valley.
Table 2.4-8 Commute Patterns of Simi Valley Residents Employed in Primary Private Sector Jobs
2003 Workplace of Primary Private Sector Employees Count Share Simi Valley 8,648 18.8%
Other Ventura Co. Locations
Thousand Oaks 3,970 8.6%
Moorpark 1,210 2.6%
Other 2,743 6.0%
Ventura Co. Subtotal: 16,571 36.0%
Los Angeles Co. 22,014 47.8%
Orange Co. 2,517 5.5%
San Diego Co. 855 1.9%
San Bernardino Co. 713 1.5%
Other Locations 3,390 7.4% Total: 46,060 100.0%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman, Associates, Inc. US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamic (LEHD)
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2.4.3 Residential Trends This section provides a profile of Simi Valley’s housing characteristics and trends, including housing stock, housing tenure, housing prices, and the City’s rental market.
Housing Stock As shown in Table 2.4-9 (Dwelling Units, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the City’s housing stock increased from 33,111 units in 1990 to 37,330 in 2000. At the same time, the City of Simi Valley experienced a slight decline in single family units from 82.1 percent to 81.3 percent and an increase in multi-family units from 14.5 percent to 16.3 percent, as shown in Table 2.4-9. In the distribution of dwelling units shown in Table 2.4-9 and Figure 2.4-5 (Distribution of Dwelling Units City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 2000), single family units comprised 81.3 percent of dwelling units in the City in 2000, compared to 74.6 percent in Ventura County. In 2000, multi-family units comprised 16.3 percent of the City’s housing, compared to 20.5 percent for the County. Mobile Homes comprised 2.4 percent of the total housing stock in the City in the 2000, compared to 4.8 percent in Ventura County. The City has historically been a predominately single family, suburban housing market. With a growing emphasis on increasing the job base, some shift may need to occur toward a higher proportion of multi-family housing in order to accommodate more of the entry-level workforce.
Table 2.4-9 Dwelling Units, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
Percent Percent 1990 Distribution 2000 Distribution City of Simi Valley Single Family 27,179 82.1% 30,335 81.3% Multi-Family 4,814 14.5% 6,102 16.3% Mobile Homes/Other 1,118 3.4% 893 2.4% Total 33,111 100.0% 37,330 100.0%
Ventura County Single Family 167,412 73.3% 187,851 74.6% Multi-Family 46,347 20.3% 51,699 20.5% Mobile Homes/Other 14,719 6.4% 12,162 4.8% Total 228,478 100.0% 251,712 100.0%
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
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90% 81.3% 80% 74.6%
70%
60% City of Simi Valley Ventura County 50%
40%
30% 20.5% 20% 16.3%
10% 4.8% 2.4% 0% Single Family Multi-Family Mobile Homes/Other
Figure 2.4-5 Distribution of Dwelling Units, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 2000 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000
Housing Tenure As shown in Table 2.4-10 (Housing Tenure, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the distribution of owner and renter occupied housing units for the permanent population in the City of Simi Valley has remained relatively stable from 1990 to 2000. In 2000, 77.6 percent of the units were owner- occupied and 22.4 percent were renter-occupied in the City of Simi Valley. Also shown in Table 2.4-10 and Figure 2.4-6 (Housing Tenure, City and County: 2000), in 2000 the City of Simi Valley had a higher rate of owner occupied units at 77.6 percent, compared to Ventura County at 67.6 percent.
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Table 2.4-10 Housing Tenure, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
Percent of Percent of 1990 Total 2000 Total City of Simi Valley Owner-Occupied 24,435 76.4% 28,270 77.6% Renter-Occupied 7,563 23.6% 8,151 22.4% Total Units 31,998 100.0% 36,421 100.0%
Ventura County Owner-Occupied 142,262 65.5% 164,380 67.6% Renter-Occupied 75,036 34.5% 78,854 32.4% Total Units 217,298 100.0% 243,234 100.0%
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census 1990 and 2000.
90.0% 77.6% 80.0% 67.6% 70.0%
City of Simi Valley 60.0% Ventura County
50.0%
40.0% 32.4% 30.0% 22.4% 20.0%
10.0%
0.0% Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied
Figure 2.4-6 Housing Tenure, City and County: 2000 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., U.S. Bureau of Census, 1990 and 2000.
Vacancy Status As shown in Table 2.4-11 (Occupancy Status of Housing Units1, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 to 2000), the percentage of vacant units in the City decreased from 3.4 percent in 1990 to 2.3 percent in 2000. In the year 2000, vacant units were only 2.3 percent of the total housing stock in the
2.4-14 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
City of Simi Valley, compared to 3.4 percent in Ventura County. Vacancy rates are indicators of the housing supply scenario in the City. A lower vacancy rate indicates a tighter market, and consequently higher rents. This bidding-up of home-prices and rental rates may deter entry-level workers from living in the City.
Table 2.4-11 Occupancy Status of Housing Units1, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
Percent Percent 1990 Distribution 2000 Distribution City of Simi Valley 31,998 96.6% 36,421 97.7% Occupied 1,113 3.4% 851 2.3% Vacant 33,111 100.0% 37,272 100.0% Total
Ventura County 217,298 95.1% 243,234 96.6% Occupied 11,180 4.9% 8,478 3.4% Vacant 228,478 100.0% 251,712 100.0% Total
1. According to the U.S. Census, unoccupied housing units are considered vacant. A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of enumeration, unless its occupants are only temporarily absent. A housing unit is classified as occupied if it is the usual place of residence of the person or group of people living in it at the time of enumeration. Units temporarily occupied at the time of enumeration entirely by people who have a usual residence elsewhere are also classified as vacant.
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. U.S. Bureau of Census, 1990 and 2000.
Age of Housing As shown in Table 2.4-12 (Age of Housing Stock, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the housing stock in the City is relatively new compared to the County as only about 4.8 percent of the stock was built before 1960 compared to 17.6 percent in the County. Conversely, newer housing stock between 1990 and 2000 comprised 16.1 percent of the total in the City, compared to 12.9 percent in the County. The advantage of newer housing stock is that it is typically better equipped with services provision, while also improving the overall efficiency of service delivery and utilization.
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Table 2.4-12 Age of Housing Stock, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
No. of Percent of Year Built Units Total1
Simi Valley Built 1990 to 2000 6,013 16.1% Built 1980 to 1989 8,974 24.0% Built 1970 to 1979 8,583 23.0% Built 1960 to 1969 11,984 32.1% Built 1950 to 1959 1,301 3.5% Built 1940 to 1949 271 0.7% Built 1939 or earlier 204 0.5% Total Units 37,330 100.0%
Built prior 1960 4.8%
Ventura County Built 1990 to 2000 32,530 12.9% Built 1980 to 1989 49,348 19.6% Built 1970 to 1979 67,434 26.8% Built 1960 to 1969 58,091 23.1% Built 1950 to 1959 25,445 10.1% Built 1940 to 1949 8,877 3.5% Built 1939 or earlier 9,987 4.0% Total Units 251,712 100.0%
Built prior 1960 17.6%
1. May not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
Overcrowding As shown in Table 2.4-13 (Total Housing Units by Occupants per Room, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), overcrowded units have increased in the City of Simi Valley from 1990 to 2000 using the U.S. overcrowding criteria of 1.01 or more occupants per rooms of the house. The number of units with 1.01 or more occupants per room has increased by 20.8 percent. This trend in overcrowded units is also reflected in the County, but at a greater percentage increase of 32.6 percent. As a percent of total units, only 5.8 percent of the units are estimated as overcrowded in the City of Simi Valley compared to 12.4 percent in Ventura County in 2000. Overcrowded units are a reflection of the increasing population growth without a relative increase in the number of housing units to meet this need. Low vacancy rates coupled with increasing levels of overcrowding suggests that demand for housing has been increasing faster than supply in Simi Valley. Additionally, overcrowding indicates there may be a lack of housing that is suitable or affordable.
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Table 2.4-13 Total Housing Units by Occupants per Room, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000
Percent 1990 2000 Change Change Simi Valley
1.00 or less occupants per room 30,234 34,347 4,113 13.6% 1.01 or more occupants per room 1,764 2,131 367 20.8% Total Units 31,998 36,478 4,480 14.0%
Overcrowded Units as a % of Total Units 5.5% 5.8%
Ventura County
1.00 or less occupants per room 194,582 213,123 18,541 9.5% 1.01 or more occupants per room 22,716 30,111 7,395 32.6% Total Units 217,298 243,234 25,936 11.9%
Overcrowded Units as a % of Total Units 10.5% 12.4%
1. More than 1.0 occupant per room is defined as an overcrowded condition.
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000.
Housing Value Market data for July 2007 housing prices based on DataQuick DQ News for the City of Simi Valley and nearby communities is shown in Table 2.4-14 (Home Values in the Simi Valley Area: July 2007). As shown, Simi Valley has a relatively lower median selling price for single-family homes than nearby communities. Some of the higher priced communities for single-family units were Moorpark ($643,000), Newbury Park ($649,000), and Westlake Village ($1,125,000). The median price in the City of Simi Valley in January, 2007 was $574,000 (midpoint) for single-family units and $404,500 (midpoint) for condominium units. This indicates that Simi Valley is still lower priced compared to surrounding communities. The lower housing values in the City will allow for more people to purchase homes who want to live in the area.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-17 Chapter 2 Community Development
Table 2.4-14 Home Values in the Simi Valley Area: July 2007
Condo Median Single Family Median Units Selling City Zip Code Units Sold Selling Price Sold Price Simi Valley 93063 50 $558,000 11 $369,000 Simi Valley 93065 62 $590,000 17 $440,000 Thousand Oaks 91360 42 $668,000 9 $445,000 Thousand Oaks 91362 27 $940,000 12 $568,000 Moorpark 93021 29 $643,000 5 $394,000 Newbury Park 91320 47 $649,000 12 $543,000 Westlake Village 91361 17 $1,125,000 5 $599,000 Total 274 71
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Dataquick - Accessed August 21, 2007
Multi-Family Rental Market As shown in Table 2.4-15 (Average Rent by Unit Type, City of Simi Valley: 2005 and 2006 [actual dollars]) and based on information provided by the City, the average rent for a one bedroom with one bathroom in actual dollars has increased by 9.0 percent, from $1,039 in 2005 to $1,133 in 2006. The average rent for a two bedroom with two bathrooms increased by 10.3 percent, from $1,278 in 2005 to $1,409 in 2006. The weighted average rent for the sampled units in the City in 2005 is $1,228 and $1,340 in 2006, an increase of about 9.0 percent. This increase in rents is higher compared to the 2005 to 2006 inflation of about 4.2 percent. Based on information from the American Community Survey for the year 2005, when comparing median rents to surrounding jurisdictions, as shown in Table 2.14-15 (Average Rent by Unit Type, City of Simi Valley: 2005 and 2006), the City rent is about 9.0 percent above the countywide median rent. The median rent in Thousand Oaks is the highest at 22.0 percent above the countywide median rent. However, the cities of Oxnard and San Buenaventura are below the City at approximately 90.0 percent of the countywide median rent. The multi-family market in the City is slightly more expensive than communities in western Ventura County; except for Thousands Oaks (no median rent information was available for Moorpark). This has implications for the provision of a mix of moderate housing opportunities to entry-level job seekers who may desire to live closer to their place of work.
2.4-18 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-15 Average Rent by Unit Type, City of Simi Valley: 2005 and 2006 (actual dollars)
Number Average Average Average Percent Market Unit Types of Units Square Rent Rent Change: 2006 Feet 2006 2005 2006 2005 - 2006
A. Market Unit Types: Non-Senior Units1 Studio 7 425 n/a $675 n/a 1 BR / 1 Bath 1,414 638 $1,039 $1,133 9.0% 2 BR / 1 Bath 598 826 $1,319 $1,395 5.8% 2 BR / 1.5 Bath 134 811 $1,125 $1,160 3.1% 2 BR / 2 Bath 1,483 880 $1,278 $1,409 10.3% 2 BR / 2.5 Bath 8 1,000 $1,450 $1,500 3.4% 3 BR / 2 Bath 379 1,138 $1,628 $1,807 11.0% 3 BR / 2.5 Bath 18 975 $1,312 $1,336 1.8% 3 BR / 3 Bath 2 1,313 $1,450 $1,500 3.4% 4 BR / 2 Bath 9 1,242 $1,750 $1,975 12.9%
Weighted Average 4,052 $1,228 $1,340
Median B. Median Rent Rent Comparison2 2005 Index Simi Valley $1,289 1.09 Thousand Oaks $1,446 1.22 Moorpark n/a n/a Oxnard $1,073 0.91 San Buenaventura $1,094 0.93 Ventura County $1,181 1.00
1. Data are from the City of Simi Valley 2006 Apartment Survey 2. Median rents are from the U.S. Census Amercian Community Survey 2005.
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. City of Simi Valley 2006 Apartment Survey U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005
Residential Building Trends Historic Residential Building Activity As shown in Table 2.4-16 and Figure 2.4-7 (New Residential Building Activity; City of Simi Valley: 1995- 2005), single-family homes comprised 6,098 units, or 77.9 percent, of the total new residential units constructed, between 1995 and 2005. The construction of new single family units in the City increased from 349 units in 1995 to 941 in 1999, and then declined to 771 units in 2005. This was an annual average of 554 new single family units over the 10-year period. According latest estimates made available
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-19 Chapter 2 Community Development by the City, the pace of home building activity has declined significantly in 2007 to levels of less than half the average annual rate over the last ten years. A total of 1,730 multi-family units were constructed between 1995 and 2005, at an annual average of 157 units per year. Multi-family units constituted 22.1 percent of the total units over the 10-year period, but varied widely within this period from zero percent in years 2000 to 2002, up to 56.4 percent of new residential building activity one year later in 2003. As a percent of Ventura County building activity, shown in Table 2.4-17 and Figure 2.4-8 (New Residential Building Activity Ventura County: 1995 to 2005), the average annual building permits of 712 per year for Simi Valley represents about 22.9 percent of the annual average of 3,194 per year for Ventura County as a whole. As a largely built out community, the growth rate of residential development will depend heavily on the revitalization of older, lower density residential areas with a mix of ownership and rental housing.
Table 2.4-16 New Residential Building Activity; City of Simi Valley: 1995–2005
Multi Year Single Family % of Total Family % of Total Total 1995 349 84.7% 63 15.3% 412 1996 431 93.5% 30 6.5% 461 1997 456 91.0% 45 9.0% 501 1998 919 84.5% 168 15.5% 1,087 1999 941 82.1% 205 17.9% 1,146 2000 776 100.0% 0 0.0% 776 2001 519 100.0% 0 0.0% 519 2002 188 100.0% 0 0.0% 188 2003 389 43.6% 504 56.4% 893 2004 359 78.4% 99 21.6% 458 2005 771 55.6% 616 44.4% 1,387 TOTAL 6,098 77.9% 1,730 22.1% 7,828 Annual Average 554 83.0% 157 17.0% 712
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Construction Industry Research Board, 2006.
2.4-20 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
1,000 919 900 771 800
700 616 600 504 500
400
300
200
100
0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Single Family Multi Family
Figure 2.4-7 New Residential Building Activity, City of Simi Valley: 1995–2005 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., Construction Industry Research Board, 2006.
Table 2.4-17 New Residential Building Activity, Ventura County: 1995–2005
Year Single Family % of Total Multi Family % of Total Total 1995 1,954 90.2% 212 9.8% 2,166 1996 2,130 90.5% 223 9.5% 2,353 1997 2,071 89.4% 245 10.6% 2,316 1998 2,811 88.3% 371 11.7% 3,182 1999 3,662 82.4% 780 17.6% 4,442 2000 2,995 75.4% 976 24.6% 3,971 2001 3,157 91.6% 289 8.4% 3,446 2002 2,228 88.9% 279 11.1% 2,507 2003 2,342 64.4% 1,293 35.6% 3,635 2004 1,721 66.1% 882 33.9% 2,603 2005 2,593 57.4% 1,923 42.6% 4,516 TOTAL 27,664 78.7% 7,473 21.3% 35,137 Annual Average 2,515 80.4% 679 19.6% 3,194
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Construction Industry Research Board, 2006.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-21 Chapter 2 Community Development
4,000 3,662 3,500
3,000 2,593 2,500 1,954 2,000 1,923 1,500 976 1,000
500 212
0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Single Family Multi Family
Figure 2.4-8 New Residential Building Activity, Ventura County: 1995–2005 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., California Department of Finance, 2006.
2.4.4 Market Conditions and Trends The following section examines the current market conditions in the City of Simi Valley, with some comparisons to neighboring cities as well as Ventura County. The purpose of this section is to identify the existing conditions of the retail, commercial and industrial inventory in the City of Simi Valley. In addition, the following section also presents data on taxable retail sales, vacancy rates, rental rates, and general retail center conditions.
Taxable Sales Trends Total Taxable Sales As a major municipal General Fund revenue source, sales tax is a significant contributor to the economic vitality of the City. Taxable sales data is obtained from the California State Board of Equalization. As shown in Table 2.4-18 (Taxable Sales by Retail Category, City of Simi Valley: 1995 and 2005 [in thousands of constant 2006 dollars]), overall retail taxable sales in the City grew from $739.1 million in 1995 to $1.27 billion in 2005, in constant 2006 dollars, at an annual average growth rate of 5.6 percent. As shown in Table 2.4-18 and Figure 2.4-9 (Percent Distribution of Taxable Sales, City of Simi Valley: 2005), taxable retail sales were highest for General Merchandise stores which generated sales of $271.1 million in 2005, or about 21.0 percent of total retail sales. Auto dealers & auto suppliers were the second largest group generating $239.1 million, or about 19.0 percent of the total retail sales. In addition, taxable sales grew in all retail categories, except for food stores, which showed a decline of 14.0 percent from $87.4 million in 1995 to $75.2 million in 2005, in constant 2006 dollars.
2.4-22 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-18 Taxable Sales by Retail Category, City of Simi Valley: 1995 and 2005 (in thousands of constant 2006 dollars)
Percent 1995-2005 Average Distribution 1995-2005 Percent Annual Rate Retail Group 1995 2005 2005 Change Change of Growth
Apparel Stores $24,207 $46,174 3.6% $21,967 90.7% 6.7% General Merchandise1 120,445 271,146 21.3% 150,701 125.1% 8.5% Food Stores 87,422 75,217 5.9% (12,205) -14.0% -1.5% Eating & Drinking Places 106,866 153,182 12.0% 46,316 43.3% 3.7% Home Furnishings & Appliances 13,952 35,314 2.8% 21,362 153.1% 9.7% Building Materials & Farm Implements 70,519 160,067 12.6% 89,547 127.0% 8.5% Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies 134,996 239,076 18.8% 104,080 77.1% 5.9% Service Stations 85,175 133,332 10.5% 48,157 56.5% 4.6% Other Retail Stores2 95,509 159,599 12.5% 64,090 67.1% 5.3% Retail Subtotal $739,092 $1,273,108 100.0% $534,016 72.3% 5.6%
All Other Outlets 202,497 288,925 86,428 42.7% 3.6% Total Taxable Sales $941,589 $1,562,032 $620,443 65.9% 5.2%
Retail as % of Total 78.5% 81.5%
1. Includes Drug Stores 2. Includes Packaged Liquor Stores
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California State Board of Equalization, 1995 and 2005.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-23 Chapter 2 Community Development
Apparel Stores 3.6% Other Retail Stores 12.5% General Merchandise 21.3%
Service Stations 10.5%
Food Store s 5.9%
Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies 18.8% Eating & Drinking Places 12.0%
Home Furnishings & Building Materials & Appliances Farm Implements 2.8% 12.6%
Figure 2.4-9 Percent Distribution of Taxable Sales, City of Simi Valley: 2005 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., California State Board of Equalization, 2005. Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita As shown in Table 2.4-19 (Taxable Sales Per Capita, City of Simi Valley: 1995-2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]), the City’s per capita taxable retail sales grew from $7,361 in 1995 to $10,513 in 2005 in constant 2006 dollars, at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent. The taxable retail sales per capita were the highest in the General Merchandise category, which grew from $1,200 in 1995 to $2,239 in 2005, in constant 2006 dollars. The taxable retail sales per capita sales grew the fastest in Home Furnishings & Appliances, which grew at an annual average growth rate of 8.6 percent. The increase in retail sales per capita indicates that the City has improved the capture of retail opportunities as the City has grown.
2.4-24 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-19 Taxable Sales Per Capita, City of Simi Valley: 1995–2005 (in constant 2006 dollars)
1995-2005 Average 1995-2005 Percent Annual Rate Retail Group 1995 2005 Change Change of Growth
Apparel Stores $241 $381 $140 58.1% 5.2% General Merchandise1 1,200 2,239 1,039 86.6% 7.2% Food Stores 871 621 (250) -28.7% -3.7% Eating & Drinking Places 1,064 1,265 201 18.8% 1.9% Home Furnishings & Appliances 139 292 153 109.9% 8.6% Building Materials & Farm Implements 702 1,322 619 88.2% 7.3% Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies 1,345 1,974 630 46.8% 4.4% Service Stations 848 1,101 253 29.8% 2.9% Other Retail Stores2 951 1,318 367 38.5% 3.7% Retail Subtotal $7,361 $10,513 $3,152 42.8% 4.0%
All Other Outlets 2,017 2,386 369 18.3% 1.9% Total Taxable Sales $9,378 $12,899 $3,521 37.5% 3.6%
Retail as % of Total 78.5% 81.5%
Population 100,400 121,096 20,696 20.6% 2.1%
1. Includes Drug Stores 2. Includes Packaged Liquor Stores
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Department of Finance, 1995 and 2005.
Comparative Taxable Retail Sales Table 2.4-20 (Taxable Sales, City of Simi Valley and Nearby Cities: 2005 [in thousands of constant 2006 dollars]) presents the retail taxable sales in 2005 for the City of Simi Valley in comparison to neighboring cities in the County of Ventura. However, the taxable retail sales in Simi Valley of approximately $1.3 billion are lower than the taxable sales in Thousand Oaks, Oxnard, and San Buenaventura at approximately $2.3 billion, $2.0 billion, and $1.8 billion, respectively. When the taxable sales in the City are compared with the Ventura County, the City’s retail sales comprise nearly 14.0 percent of the retail sales within Ventura County.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-25 Chapter 2 Community Development
Table 2.4-20 Taxable Sales, City of Simi Valley and Nearby Cities: 2005 (in thousands of constant 2006 dollars)
San Thousand Ventura Retail Group Simi Valley Camarillo Buenaventura Moorpark Oxnard Oaks County
Apparel Stores $46,174 $166,799 $103,440 $21,525 $54,730 $135,260 $547,000 General Merchandise 271,146 90,813 263,370 N/A 331,799 246,419 1,309,847 Food Stores 75,217 36,724 71,897 16,888 92,562 110,587 475,578 Eating & Drinking Places 153,182 109,134 205,415 35,495 177,508 238,479 1,014,829 Home Furnishings & Appliances 35,314 43,082 55,627 4,095 107,766 131,688 417,585 Building Materials & Farm Implem. 160,067 86,980 224,669 5,495 253,250 151,223 1,172,535 Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies 239,076 54,563 448,461 3,114 558,524 725,869 2,275,442 Service Stations 133,332 72,680 131,002 32,597 157,339 141,866 789,478 Other Retail Stores 159,599 131,154 273,207 69,963 241,147 370,103 1,153,678 Retail Total $1,273,108 $791,929 $1,777,088 $189,172 $1,974,626 $2,251,493 $9,155,971 Percent of Ventura County 13.9% 8.6% 19.4% 2.1% 21.6% 24.6% 100.0%
2005 Population 121,096 62,570 105,812 35,717 188,333 126,770 810,763
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California State Board of Equalization, 2005. California Department of Finance, 2005.
Taxable Per Capita Retail Sales and Retail Leakage Index As shown in Table 2.4-21 (Per Capita Taxable Retail Transactions, City of Simi Valley and Nearby Cities: 2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]) and Figure 2.4-11 (Per Capita Taxable Sales By Jurisdiction: 2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]), in 2005, per capita taxable retail sales in Simi Valley was $10,513; lower than the nearby cities of and Thousand Oaks and Camarillo at $17,760 and $12,657, respectively, as well as about 7 percent less than the county-wide average of $11,293. This indicates that Simi Valley still could improve its capture of retail sales compared with several other cities in Ventura County. As shown in Table 2.4-22 (Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita Relative to Ventura County—Leakage Factors: 2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]), taxable retail per capita sales by city have been converted into an index benchmarked to the Ventura County (1.00) for each retail category. This “leakage index” is an indicator of the relative strengths and weaknesses, among cities by retail category. Based on this analysis, Simi Valley’s overall index of 0.93 indicates that Simi Valley captures less retail sales compared to the county- wide per capita average. The only retail categories in Simi Valley that are performing close or better than the Ventura County per capita average are General Merchandise (1.39), Service Stations (1.13), Food Stores (1.06) and Eating and Drinking Places (1.01). The less-than-average per capita taxable retail sales performance in other retail categories—such as Apparel Stores, Home Furnishings & Appliances, Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies—is an indication of potential opportunity for additional retail sales in those categories.
2.4-26 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-21 Per Capita Taxable Retail Transactions, City of Simi Valley and Nearby Cities: 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars)
San Thousand Ventura Retail Group Simi Valley Camarillo Buenaventura Moorpark Oxnard Oaks County
Apparel Stores $381 $2,666 $978 $603 $291 $1,067 $675 General Merchandise 2,239 1,451 2,489 N/A 1,762 1,944 1,616 Food Stores 621 587 679 473 491 872 587 Eating & Drinking Places 1,265 1,744 1,941 994 943 1,881 1,252 Home Furnishings & Appliances 292 689 526 115 572 1,039 515 Building Materials & Farm Implem. 1,322 1,390 2,123 154 1,345 1,193 1,446 Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies 1,974 872 4,238 87 2,966 5,726 2,807 Service Stations 1,101 1,162 1,238 913 835 1,119 974 Other Retail Stores 1,318 2,096 2,582 1,959 1,280 2,919 1,423 Retail Subtotal $10,513 $12,657 $16,795 $5,296 $10,485 $17,760 $11,293
2005 Population 121,096 62,570 105,812 35,717 188,333 126,770 810,763
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California State Board of Equalization, 2005 California Department of Finance, 2005
$20,000 $17,760 $18,000 $16,795 $16,000
$14,000 $11,293 $12,657 $12,000 $10,485 $10,513 $10,000
$8,000 $5,296 $6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
y rk rd e a na rp arillo Vall m o Ox a Mo imi C S
Ventura County Thousand Oaks San Buenaventura
Figure 2.4-10 Per Capita Taxable Sales by Jurisdiction: 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars) Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc., California Department of Finance, 2005.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-27 Chapter 2 Community Development
Table 2.4-22 Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita Relative to Ventura County— Leakage Factors: 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars)
San Thousand Ventura Retail Group Simi Valley Camarillo Buenaventura Moorpark Oxnard Oaks County
Apparel Stores 0.57 3.95 1.45 0.89 0.43 1.58 1.00 General Merchandise 1.39 2.15 3.69 N/A 1.09 1.20 1.00 Food Stores 1.06 1.00 1.16 0.81 0.84 1.49 1.00 Eating & Drinking Places 1.01 1.39 1.55 0.79 0.75 1.50 1.00 Home Furnishings & Appliances 0.57 1.34 1.02 0.22 1.11 2.02 1.00 Building Materials & Farm Implem. 0.91 0.96 1.47 0.11 0.93 0.82 1.00 Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies 0.70 0.31 1.51 0.03 1.06 2.04 1.00 Service Stations 1.13 0.41 0.44 0.94 0.86 1.15 1.00 Other Retail Stores 0.93 1.47 1.81 1.38 0.90 2.05 1.00 Retail Subtotal 0.93 1.12 1.49 0.47 0.93 1.57 1.00
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California State Board of Equalization, 2005 California Department of Finance, 2005
1.60 1.39 1.40 1.06 1.13 1.20 0.91 0.93 1.01 1.00 0.70 0.80 0.57 0.57 0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00 Apparel Home Auto Dealers Building Other Retail Eating & Food Stores Service General Stores Furnishings & & Auto Mater ials & Stores Drinking Stations Merchandise Appliances Supplies Farm Implem. Places
Figure 2.4-11 City of Simi Valley Per Capita Taxable Sales Relative to Ventura County1: 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars) SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates Inc., California Department of Finance, 2005. NOTE: Each bar shows Simi Valley’s relative level of per capita retail sales by retail category versus the County; above 1.0 is an indicator of greater relative capture; below 1.0 is less relative capture.
Existing Retail Supply and Vacancy Rates During February, 2007, Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. surveyed shopping centers within the City of Simi Valley to confirm anchor tenants, size (square feet) and vacancy based upon information from a CB Richard Ellis database. As shown in Table 2.4-23 (Distribution of GLA and Vacancy Rate, City of Simi Valley: 2005), the total gross leasable area in Simi Valley is estimated at about 3.9 million square feet and the total vacant gross leasable area is approximately 207,600 square feet. The overall vacancy rate of
2.4-28 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
the retail shopping centers in the City of Simi Valley is estimated 5.3 percent as of February 2007. This is very similar to a 5.0 percent vacancy rate estimated by a City survey in August 2006. The highest vacancy rate of 8.1 percent is shown for neighborhood centers. It may be that some older retail centers are loosing their competitive edge as newer centers are developed. Vacancy thresholds, or vacancy rates that are assumed to be normal, vary by the type of market. The levels of vacancy rates in commercial property vary substantially across different markets and that within a given market these rates tend to persist over time. Historically, based on information from CB Richard Ellis, over a period of 26 years from 1980 to 2006, Ventura County had an average vacancy rate of around 5 percent, similar to the current vacancy rates in Simi Valley. Table 2.4-23 Distribution of GLA and Vacancy Rate, City of Simi Valley: 2005
Percent of Vacancy Total GLA Vacant GLA Total GLA Rate GLA Types (SF) (SF) (SF) (SF) Regional 660,000 17,263 16.9% 2.6% Neighborhood 1,092,721 88,330 28.0% 8.1% Community 2,153,980 102,019 55.1% 4.7% Total 3,906,701 207,612 100.0% 5.3%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. CB Richard Ellis
Existing Office Supply A City survey conducted in August 2006, as cited in a memorandum to the City Manager dated August 30, 2006 from the City Director of Economic Development, showed an overall commercial/office vacancy rate of 2.0 percent. In comparison, data provided by CBRE for third quarter 2007 estimates office market vacancy rate in the City at 5.8 percent, lower than the vacancy rate for Ventura County at 8.9 percent. Considering the existing low vacancy rates in the City, there is opportunity for new office development especially given the City’s push towards expanding the office-related job base. This is likely a challenging task given the shortage of available vacant lands in a mostly build-out city.
Existing Industrial Supply Industrial market data made available by CBRE, as shown in Table 2.4-24 (Regional Industrial Market, Third Quarter 2007) indicates that the industrial availability rate is about 9.2 percent in the Simi Valley Area. This can be contrasted with the City’s research that the industrial vacancy rate, based on a wider survey of industrial inventory, was relatively low at 3.4 percent in August, 2006. As shown in Table 2.4-24, the vacancy rate for Ventura County was estimated at 7.0 percent for third quarter, 2007.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-29 Chapter 2 Community Development
Table 2.4-24 Regional Industrial Market, Third Quarter 2007
Simi Valley/Moorpark 9.2% Agoura/Westlake Village 7.5% Oxnard 3.0% Santa Paula/Fillmore 9.1% Ventura County 7.0%
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. CB Richard Ellis.
Market Perspectives from CBRE Broker For the most accurate assessment of market conditions, local sources of information are desirable. One such local source of market data was attained from a broker at CB Richard Ellis, who provided some insights about the current industrial market trends in the City of Simi Valley. From his perspective, there has been very little new construction in the market, likely due to the lack of land available for sales. Demand has been good for properties smaller than 20,000 square feet. For industrial spaces larger than 5,000 square feet, the average lease rate executed in 2006 was 10.11 percent higher compared to lease rates in 2005 according to CBRE.
City of Simi Valley Another local source of information about existing market conditions was provided by the City of Simi Valley in the memorandum dated August 30, 2006. Based upon City discussions with a selection of real estate brokers, the City determined the industrial vacancy rate to be 3.4 percent, commercial/office vacancy at 2.0 percent, and retail vacancy to be 5.0 percent. According to the memo, the market is very constrained because of a lack of available space. Overall, there are approximately 475 acres of vacant land that are zoned for industrial and commercial, 377 of which are zoned for industrial. Some parcels in particular that are less likely to be developed in the near future are as follows: ■ 75 acres at the west terminus of Cochran Street, requiring extensive grading and infrastructure costs ■ 30 acres west of the future Alamos Canyon Road, requiring extensive grading and infrastructure costs and has secondary access issues ■ Simi-Masson Ranch and Butler Ranch, totally 122 acres, hindered by geology, Arroyo Simi, hillside protection, and access issues ■ Overall, 120 acres of industrial land and 51.71 acres of commercial land are available for near-term development
2.4-30 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
The economic implications of these relatively low vacancy rates are that retail, office and industrial opportunities and making land available should be part of the City’s economic strategy to expand and diversify its job base.
Nonresidential Building Activity Data from the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) on nonresidential building activity in the City of Simi Valley for the time period 1995 to 2005 is presented as a comparative measure for growth trends.
City of Simi Valley As shown in Table 2.4-25 (City of Simi Valley—Nonresidential Building Permit Valuations: 1995 to 2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]), total nonresidential commercial building activity in the City fluctuated in terms of valuation during the 1995–2005 time periods. Valuations ranged from lows in 1995 and 1996 of $12.5 and $7.2 million, respectively, to roughly $58.6 million in years 1999 and $70.6 million in 2004. The City of Simi Valley had an annual average of $37.6 million of total nonresidential building activity between 1995 and 2005, in constant 2006 dollars. New Industrial permits averaged $6.8 million per year in building permit valuations. New Commercial building permit valuation in the City, at an annual average of $19.4 million between 1995 and 2005, constituted about 52 percent of the annual average for total nonresidential building permit valuations during this period.
Ventura County As shown in Table 2.4-26 (Ventura County—Nonresidential Building Permit Valuations: 1995 to 2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]), Ventura County averaged approximately $239.7 million per year in total nonresidential building permit valuations. The City of Simi Valley represented 16.0 percent of the County’s annual average valuation. In Ventura County during this 10-year period, New Commercial was the largest category with 47.1 percent of the total nonresidential building permit valuations. New Industrial was the smallest category, with only 25.4 percent of the total nonresidential permit valuations. This trend data suggests that the strength of the building, permit activity has been in the commercial retail and office categories. While not as strong, the industrial market has steadily expanded at 18.1 – 25.4 percent of the permit valuation.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-31 Chapter 2 Community Development
Table 2.4-25 City of Simi Valley Nonresidential Building Permit Valuations: 1995– 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars)
New Total Non Year Commercial New Industrial New Other Residential 1995 $10,808,153 $718 $1,682,747 $12,491,617 1996 508,326 4,366,524 2,369,636 7,244,486 1997 3,932,060 7,657,092 5,027,692 16,616,845 1998 26,139,269 23,793,765 8,689,336 58,622,370 1999 36,527,137 7,528,564 14,549,544 58,605,245 2000 4,439,217 2,464,391 13,084,923 19,988,531 2001 1,711,641 13,561,426 12,185,232 27,458,300 2002 28,016,106 1,872,725 16,424,453 46,313,285 2003 14,966,253 2,515,826 21,970,407 39,452,485 2004 49,320,489 6,841,405 14,503,113 70,665,007 2005 37,463,154 4,015,142 14,123,460 55,601,755 Total $213,831,806 $74,617,579 $124,610,542 $413,059,928 Annual Average $19,439,255 $6,783,416 $11,328,231 $37,550,903 Percent of Total 51.8% 18.1% 30.2% 100.0%
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Construction Industry Research Board, 2006.
Table 2.4-26 Ventura County Nonresidential Building Permit Valuations: 1995– 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars)
New Total Non Year Commercial New Industrial New Other Residential 1995 $106,006,238 $27,167,372 $27,248,049 $160,421,659 1996 66,668,791 85,068,999 29,823,755 181,561,545 1997 57,842,031 74,287,080 50,403,999 182,533,109 1998 105,363,984 106,190,425 50,427,256 261,981,665 1999 157,281,968 73,923,293 103,489,668 334,694,929 2000 78,170,748 51,612,197 96,180,065 225,963,010 2001 102,242,679 90,742,908 61,470,513 254,456,100 2002 119,868,783 35,894,040 65,711,857 221,474,680 2003 175,795,585 52,510,911 69,484,307 297,790,803 2004 138,059,643 49,545,278 67,950,269 255,555,190 2005 133,449,147 23,509,867 103,558,833 260,517,847 Total $1,240,749,596 $670,452,369 $725,748,572 $2,636,950,537 Annual Average $112,795,418 $60,950,215 $65,977,143 $239,722,776 Percent of Total 47.1% 25.4% 27.5% 100.0%
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Construction Industry Research Board, 2006.
2.4-32 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
2.4.5 Employment Trends Employment and wage data for the City of Simi Valley, the South East Ventura County and Ventura County for 2001 and 2005 was provided by the California Employment Development Department (EDD). All EDD data for years 2001 and after are organized on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) basis, a system that has replaced the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) following the signing of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) agreement. Data extracts from EDD are provided at two levels: the ZIP code level and the County level. In order to estimate the employment statistics for the City of Simi Valley and South East Ventura County sub- region, ZIP codes coterminous with the City and sub-region boundaries were selected as shown in Figure 2.4-12. Data provided by the EDD for Ventura County was also aggregated for 2001 and 2005 at the County level.
Overall Employment Growth Trends: 2001–2005 As shown in Table 2.4-27 (Historic Employment Growth Trends, City of Simi Valley and Surrounding Areas: 2001-2005), according to EDD, employment in the City of Simi Valley grew from 33,625 in 2001 to 33,959 in 2005 at an annual average growth rate of 2.4 percent. The employment growth rate in the City from 2001 to 2005 was higher in comparison to Ventura County (1.6 percent), as also shown in Table 2.4-27 and Figure 2.4-14 (Comparative Average Annual Employment Growth Rates City of Simi Valley and Surrounding Areas, 2001 to 2005). Employment in the sub-region of South East Ventura County grew at a slightly higher rate than both the City and the County at about 2.9 percent from 2001 to 2005. In 2005, total employment in the City comprised about 32 percent of the total employment base of South East Ventura County sub-region. From the above data, it is evident that the South East Ventura County sub-regional economy is growing relatively faster than the rest of the County, and therefore presents possible growth opportunities for the City of Simi Valley. Relocation and expansion of firms in South East Ventura County could be economic development opportunities for Simi Valley as developable land is made available.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-33 Chapter 2 Community Development
Figure 2.4-12 ZIP Codes by Geography, City of Simi Valley and South Eastern Ventura County SOURCE: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.
2.4-34 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-27 Historic Employment Growth Trends, City of Simi Valley and Surrounding Areas: 2001–2005
2001-2005 3 2001 2005 Change %Change AAGR
City of Simi Valley 1 33,625 36,959 3,333 9.9% 2.4%
South East Ventura County 2 103,137 115,816 12,678 12.3% 2.9% City as percent S.E. Ventura 32.6% 31.9% Ventura County 293,309 312,882 19,573 6.7% 1.6%
City as percent Total County 11.5% 11.8% SE Ventura County as percent Total County 35.2% 37.0%
1. City of Simi Valley is defined by ZIP codes 93603 and 93605. 2. SE Ventura County is defined by ZIP Code 91307, 91320, 91360-91363, 91377, 93021, 93064-93065, and 93099. 3. AAGR is Average Annual Growth Rate.
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Employment Development Department (EDD).
3.5%
2.9% 3.0%
2.5% 2.4%
2.0% 1.6% 1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% City of Simi Valley South East Ventura Ventura County County
Figure 2.4-13 Comparative Average Annual Employment Growth Rates, City of Simi Valley and Surrounding Areas, 2001–2005 SOURCE: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-35 Chapter 2 Community Development
Employment Growth by NAICS Categories: 2001 and 2005 City of Simi Valley As discussed previously, employment in the City grew from 33,625 in 2001 to 36,969 in 2005, as shown in Table 2.4-28 (Employment by NAICS Industry Categories, City of Simi Valley: 2001–2005). Though the overall employment growth rate for the City between 2001 and 2005 was 2.4 percent, growth rates varied significantly by NAICS industry categories during this time period. The largest non-government employment categories in the City in 2005 were Retail Trade (14.4 percent), Finance and Insurance (11.0 percent), and Manufacturing (10.3 percent) accounting for about 36 percent of the total jobs in the City. Local, State and Federal Government jobs comprised about 10.2 percent of the total jobs in the City in 2005. As shown in Table 2.4-29 (Employment by NAICS Industry Categories, City of Simi Valley, South East Ventura County and Ventura County: 2001-2005), both Simi Valley and South East Ventura County were growing faster than the countywide average annual employment growth rate of 1.6 percent.
Table 2.4-28 Employment by NAICS Industry Categories, City of Simi Valley: 2001–2005
2001 2005 2001 - 2005 % % INDUSTRY 1 Employment Distribution Employment Distribution AAGR
CONSTRUCTION 2,425 7.2% 3,076 8.3% 6.1% MANUFACTURING 4,403 13.1% 3,807 10.3% -3.6% WHOLESALE TRADE 1,282 3.8% 1,039 2.8% -5.1% RETAIL TRADE 4,324 12.9% 5,329 14.4% 5.4% TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 169 0.5% 329 0.9% 18.1% INFORMATION 745 2.2% 503 1.4% -9.4% FINANCE & INSURANCE 4,652 13.8% 4,083 11.0% -3.2% REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 377 1.1% 511 1.4% 7.9% PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 1,057 3.1% 1,556 4.2% 10.1% MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 523 1.6% 2,380 6.4% 46.1% ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 3,128 9.3% 2,767 7.5% -3.0% EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 49 0.1% 172 0.5% 36.9% HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 2,067 6.1% 1,965 5.3% -1.3% ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECRETION 590 1.8% 648 1.8% 2.4% ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 2,789 8.3% 3,677 9.9% 7.2% OTHER SERVICES 1,004 3.0% 1,224 3.3% 5.1% FEDERAL GOVT - 0.0% 136 0.4% n/a STATE GOVT 11 0.0% 23 0.1% 20.2% LOCAL GOVT 3,927 11.7% 3,568 9.7% -2.4% 2 OTHER EMPLOYMENT 103 0.3% 166 0.4% 12.5% TOTAL 33,625 100.0% 36,959 100.0% 2.4%
1. Annual average growth rate from 2001 to 2005. 2. Includes Agriculture, Mining, Utilities & Non-Classified.
Source: Stanley R.Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Employment Development Department (EDD).
2.4-36 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-29 Employment by NAICS Industry Categories, City of Simi Valley, South East Ventura, and Ventura County: 2001–2005
CITY OF SIMI VALLEY1 SE VENTURA 2 VENTURA COUNTY 2001-2005 2001-2005 2001-2005 INDUSTRY 3 3 3 2001 2003 2005 AAGR 2001 2005 AAGR 2001 2005 AAGR
CONSTRUCTION 2,425 2,280 3,076 6.1% 6,258 8,174 6.9% 16,044 18,853 4.1%
MANUFACTURING 4,403 4,003 3,807 -3.6% 18,195 16,852 -1.9% 40,176 38,186 -1.3%
WHOLESALE TRADE 1,282 1,505 1,039 -5.1% 3,637 4,660 6.4% 10,774 12,397 3.6%
RETAIL TRADE 4,324 4,678 5,329 5.4% 13,100 15,350 4.0% 33,823 36,633 2.0%
TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 169 241 329 18.1% 1,166 1,191 0.5% 4,988 4,691 -1.5%
INFORMATION 745 704 503 -9.4% 3,938 2,760 -8.5% 8,246 5,978 -7.7%
FINANCE & INSURANCE 4,652 5,779 4,083 -3.2% 10,070 10,889 2.0% 15,461 18,457 4.5%
REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 377 380 511 7.9% 1,492 1,530 0.6% 4,216 4,447 1.3%
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 1,057 1,122 1,556 10.1% 5,555 6,971 5.8% 14,050 16,066 3.4%
MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 523 453 2,380 46.1% 753 2,705 37.7% 3,420 5,213 11.1%
ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 3,128 2,545 2,767 -3.0% 9,026 9,212 0.5% 19,599 19,284 -0.4%
EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 49 140 172 36.9% 1,155 1,713 10.4% 2,592 3,395 7.0%
HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 2,067 1,936 1,965 -1.3% 5,394 7,660 9.2% 21,440 23,662 2.5%
ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECRETION 590 691 648 2.4% 1,544 2,301 10.5% 4,079 4,802 4.2% ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 2,789 3,175 3,677 7.2% 8,927 9,591 1.8% 22,846 24,524 1.8% OTHER SERVICES 1,004 1,153 1,224 5.1% 2,491 3,282 7.1% 8,797 9,942 3.1% FEDERAL GOVT 0 142 136 N/A 16 406 124.4% 7,912 7,574 -1.1% STATE GOVT 11 20 23 20.2% 26 52 18.9% 1,247 1,181 -1.4% LOCAL GOVT 3,927 3,620 3,568 -2.4% 9,744 9,669 -0.2% 33,078 33,522 0.3% OTHER EMPLOYMENT 3 103 175 166 12.5% 650 848 6.9% 20,521 24,075 4.1%
TOTAL 33,625 34,742 36,959 2.4% 103,137 115,816 2.9% 293,309 312,882 1.6%
1. The City of Simi Valley is defined as ZIP Code 93063 and 93065. 2. South East Ventura is defined as ZIP Code 91307, 91320, 91360-91363, 91377, 93021, 93064-93065, 93099 for the EDD data anal ysis. 3. Annual average growth rate from 2001 to 2005. 4. Other Employment includes agriculture, utilities, mining and non-classified jobs.
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Employment Development Department (EDD).
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-37 Chapter 2 Community Development
City of Simi Valley and Regional Comparison As shown in Figure 2.4-14 (Top NAICS Industry Employment Categories, City of Simi Valley: 2005), retail-related jobs formed about 14.4 percent of the City employment base compared to 13.3 percent in South East Ventura sub-region. The City had a higher share of finance and insurance, accommodation and food services jobs, and management-related jobs compared to the sub-region. However, the City is not capturing enough manufacturing and professional and scientific jobs compared to the sub-region. Regional comparison using the location quotient index method is presented in Table 2.4-30 (Location Quotients by NAICS Classification: 2001 and 2005), where the employment distribution of the City and South East Ventura County are benchmarked to Ventura County to highlight industrial sectors of relative strengths. The location quotient analysis indicates that in 2005, in comparison to Ventura County, the City of Simi Valley had the highest concentrations of employment in Management of Companies and Enterprises (3.87), Finance and Insurance (1.87), Accommodation and Food Services (1.27) and Retail Trade (1.23). The City had a lower concentration of jobs compared to the County in key employment sectors like Information (0.71), Wholesale Trade (0.71), Professional and Scientific activities (0.82), and Manufacturing (0.84). Relative to the County, the South East Ventura County region has a high location quotient in the Professional, Scientific and Technical activities (1.17) and Information services (1.25), and these are much higher when compared to Simi Valley. The economic implications are to expand upon firms that are already in Simi Valley, but to also look at ways to attract additional manufacturing, professional and scientific and information services firms.
16.0%
14.4% 14.6% 14.0% City of Simi Valley 13.3%
South East Ventura 12.0% 11.0% 10.3% 9.4% 9.9% 10.0%
8.3% 8.0% ` 6.4% 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 5.3% 4.2% 4.0%
2.3% 2.0%
0.0% RETAIL TRADE FINANCE & INSURANCE M ANUFACTURING ACCOM M ODATION & MANAGEMENT OF HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL PROFESSIONAL, FOOD SERVICES COM PANIES AND ASSISTANCE SCIENTIFIC, & ENTERPRISES TECHNICAL SKIL
Figure 2.4-14 Top NAICS Industry Employment Categories, City of Simi Valley: 2005 SOURCE: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.
2.4-38 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-30 Location Quotients by NAICS Classification: 2001 and 2005
City of Simi Valley SE Ventura County Ventura County INDUSTRY 2001 2005 2001 2005 2001 2005 Percent Distribution
CONSTRUCTION 7.2% 8.3% 6.1% 7.1% 5.5% 6.0% MANUFACTURING 13.1% 10.3% 17.6% 14.6% 13.7% 12.2% WHOLESALE TRADE 3.8% 2.8% 3.5% 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% RETAIL TRADE 12.9% 14.4% 12.7% 13.3% 11.5% 11.7% TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% INFORMATION 2.2% 1.4% 3.8% 2.4% 2.8% 1.9% FINANCE & INSURANCE 13.8% 11.0% 9.8% 9.4% 5.3% 5.9% REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 3.1% 4.2% 5.4% 6.0% 4.8% 5.1% MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 1.6% 6.4% 0.7% 2.3% 1.2% 1.7% ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 9.3% 7.5% 8.8% 8.0% 6.7% 6.2% EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 6.1% 5.3% 5.2% 6.6% 7.3% 7.6% ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECREATION 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 8.3% 9.9% 8.7% 8.3% 7.8% 7.8% OTHER SERVICES 3.0% 3.3% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% FEDERAL GOVT 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 2.7% 2.4% STATE GOVT 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% LOCAL GOVT 11.7% 9.7% 9.4% 8.3% 11.3% 10.7% OTHER1 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 7.0% 7.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Location Quotients
CONSTRUCTION 1.32 1.38 1.11 1.17 1.00 1.00 MANUFACTURING 0.96 0.84 1.29 1.19 1.00 1.00 WHOLESALE TRADE 1.04 0.71 0.96 1.02 1.00 1.00 RETAIL TRADE 1.12 1.23 1.10 1.13 1.00 1.00 TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 0.30 0.59 0.66 0.69 1.00 1.00 INFORMATION 0.79 0.71 1.36 1.25 1.00 1.00 FINANCE & INSURANCE 2.62 1.87 1.85 1.59 1.00 1.00 REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 0.78 0.97 1.01 0.93 1.00 1.00 PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 0.66 0.82 1.12 1.17 1.00 1.00 MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 1.33 3.87 0.63 1.40 1.00 1.00 ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 1.39 1.21 1.31 1.29 1.00 1.00 EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 0.16 0.43 1.27 1.36 1.00 1.00 HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 0.84 0.70 0.72 0.87 1.00 1.00 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECREATION 1.26 1.14 1.08 1.29 1.00 1.00 ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 1.06 1.27 1.11 1.06 1.00 1.00 OTHER SERVICES 1.00 1.04 0.81 0.89 1.00 1.00 FEDERAL GOVT 0.00 0.15 0.01 0.14 1.00 1.00 STATE GOVT 0.08 0.16 0.06 0.12 1.00 1.00 LOCAL GOVT 1.04 0.90 0.84 0.78 1.00 1.00 OTHER1 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.10 1.00 1.00
1. Includes Agriculture, Mining, Utilities & Non-Classified. Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Employment Development Department (EDD).
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-39 Chapter 2 Community Development
Wage Trends: 2001 and 2005 As shown in Figure 2.4-15 (Average Wage: All Industries, City of Simi Valley, South Ventura County and Ventura County: 2001 and 2005 [In constant 2006 dollars]), the average wage in the City of Simi Valley grew marginally from $36,894 in 2001 to $38,969 in 2005, in constant 2006 dollars. In 2005, the average wage in the City was significantly lower compared to the South East Ventura County sub-region ($55,478), and relatively lower compared to Ventura County ($46,504). Wages in sectors like retail trade and accommodation and food services, which constitute nearly 25 percent of all jobs in the City, have relatively low wages. Consequently, this has an effect of lowering the average wage of the City compared to the region and the County. The average wage in 2005, in constant 2006 dollars, for jobs in Simi Valley in the retail trade sector were about $27,000, while those in accommodation and food services were only about $15,000 according to data from the California Employment Development Department.
$60,000 $55,478 $52,015
$50,000 $47,315 $46,504
$38,969 $40,000 $36,894
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0 Simi Valley South East Ventura Ventura County
2001 2005
Figure 2.4-15 Average Wage: All Industries, City of Simi Valley, South Ventura County and Ventura County: 2001 and 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars) SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., California Employment Development Department.
2.4-40 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-31 Wage Trends by NAICS Industry Categories: 2001 and 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars)
City of Simi Valley SE Ventura Ventura County 2005 as % 2005 as % 2005 as % INDUSTRY 2001 2005 of 2001 2001 2005 of 2001 2001 2005 of 2001
CONSTRUCTION $38,284 $38,090 99.5% $38,968 $40,371 103.6% $42,319 $42,562 100.6%
MANUFACTURING $49,582 $50,125 101.1% $100,067 $102,467 102.4% $74,808 $77,330 103.4%
WHOLESALE TRADE $52,170 $50,565 96.9% $60,339 $101,359 168.0% $55,292 $68,847 124.5%
RETAIL TRADE $29,373 $27,325 93.0% $31,862 $29,500 92.6% $30,361 $28,471 93.8%
TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING $44,525 $35,302 79.3% $35,564 $34,562 97.2% $37,660 $39,752 105.6%
INFORMATION $56,498 $50,765 89.9% $77,777 $78,374 100.8% $64,614 $66,338 102.7%
FINANCE & INSURANCE $47,188 $61,757 130.9% $62,941 $98,610 156.7% $61,738 $86,338 139.8%
REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING $35,693 $53,511 149.9% $44,135 $51,418 116.5% $38,629 $42,277 109.4%
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL $51,554 $56,104 108.8% $62,350 $62,065 99.5% $63,172 $58,073 91.9%
MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES $42,882 $39,600 92.3% $49,320 $42,838 86.9% $50,280 $57,214 113.8%
ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION $25,432 $31,335 123.2% $29,648 $35,139 118.5% $27,177 $30,178 111.0%
EDUCATIONAL SERVICES $8,653 $16,956 196.0% $32,350 $28,125 86.9% $31,123 $30,568 98.2%
HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE $34,143 $39,669 116.2% $43,584 $45,962 105.5% $41,189 $43,396 105.4%
ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECREATION $18,593 $18,973 102.0% $25,813 $23,970 92.9% $25,702 $21,436 83.4%
ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES $15,038 $15,154 100.8% $17,537 $16,469 93.9% $16,187 $15,912 98.3%
OTHER SERVICES $22,961 $25,398 110.6% $24,421 $24,497 100.3% $25,748 $26,015 101.0%
FEDERAL GOVT n/a $54,475 n/a $54,365 $55,033 101.2% $67,568 $74,053 109.6%
STATE GOVT $26,032 $33,151 127.3% $33,154 $30,044 90.6% $44,619 $46,320 103.8%
LOCAL GOVT $36,566 $42,286 115.6% $41,031 $41,481 101.1% $47,622 $46,936 98.6%
OTHER EMPLOYMENT 3 $54,632 $61,515 112.6% $51,602 $50,052 97.0% $24,465 $26,964 110.2%
ALL CATEGORIES $36,894 $38,969 105.6% $52,015 $55,478 106.7% $47,315 $46,504 98.3%
1. Includes Agriculture, Mining, Utilities & Non-Classified.
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Employment Development Department (EDD).
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-41 Chapter 2 Community Development
In contrast, as shown in Table 2.4-31 (Wage Trends by NAICS Industry Categories: 2001 and 2005 [in constant 2006 dollars]), among the private sector jobs in the City in 2005, average wages were the highest in Finance and Insurance ($61,757) and Professional and Scientific activities ($56,104), followed by Real Estate ($53,511), Information ($50,765) and Manufacturing ($50,125). In comparison, the South East Ventura sub-region wages were highest for Manufacturing ($102,467), Wholesale Trade ($101,359), and Finance and Insurance ($98,610). Clearly, diversifying the economic base to attract more of the higher wage firms will increase the average wage and the labor forces spending power.
Growth of Establishments: 2001–2005 Though aggregate employment trends are good indicators of the economy’s overall growth, examining the types of establishments in the City provides another perspective as to the structure and composition of the economy-- for example, the presence of large firms versus small firms, and the concentration of employment in certain establishments. As shown in Table 2.4-32 (Distribution of Establishments by NAICS Classification, City of Simi Valley: 2001 and 2005), private sector establishments comprised around 99 percent of all establishments in the City in 2005. Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, Professional and Scientific activities, Accommodation and Food Services, and Manufacturing establishments form about 38 percent of the total. Jobs per establishment in non-government sectors forming 5 percent or more of the total distribution were highest in Manufacturing (26), Finance and Insurance (26), and Retail (16). The establishments in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Skills category formed 10.5 percent of the total in 2005, and employed, on average, 6 workers per establishment. The government establishments remain major concentrations of employment in the City, with Local Government establishments employing 105 workers per establishment, on average. The average jobs per firm in most industry categories declined between 2001 and 2005. The exception to this trend was the manufacturing sector, where the average jobs per unit remained constant around 26 between 2001 and 2005. Firms classified as Management of Companies and Enterprises increased from an average of 40 to 149 jobs per establishment. In contrast, Finance and Insurance firms declined from an average 43 to 25 jobs per firms. Given land constraints in Simi Valley, it is very likely that a mix of small to medium sized firms will be attracted in the future.
2.4-42 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-32 Distribution of Establishments by NAICS Classification, City of Simi Valley: 2001 and 2005
2001 2005 Distribution of Jobs per Distribution of Jobs per INDUSTRY Establishments Establishments Establishment Establishments Establishments Establishment
CONSTRUCTION 335 15.9% 7 381 15.3% 8 MANUFACTURING 169 8.0% 26 146 5.8% 26 WHOLESALE TRADE 123 5.8% 10 128 5.1% 8 RETAIL TRADE 269 12.7% 16 340 13.6% 16 TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 30 1.4% 6 38 1.5% 9 INFORMATION 39 1.8% 19 49 2.0% 10 FINANCE & INSURANCE 109 5.2% 43 157 6.3% 26 REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 76 3.6% 5 88 3.5% 6 PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 196 9.3% 5 263 10.5% 6 MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 13 0.6% 40 16 0.6% 149 ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 136 6.4% 23 166 6.6% 17 EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 11 0.5% 4 21 0.8% 8 HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 205 9.7% 10 242 9.7% 8 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECREATION 28 1.3% 21 41 1.6% 16 ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 151 7.2% 18 180 7.2% 20 OTHER SERVICES 180 8.5% 6 197 7.9% 6 FEDERAL GOVT 0 0.0% n/a 2 0.1% 68 STATE GOVT 1 0.0% 11 1 0.0% 23 LOCAL GOVT 33 1.6% 119 34 1.4% 105 2 OTHER 8 0.4% 13 8 0.3% 21 TOTAL 2,112 100.0% 16 2,498 100.0% 15
1. Includes Agriculture, Mining, Utilities & Non-Classified.
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. California Employment Development Department (EDD).
Largest Employers in the City of Simi Valley As shown in Table 2.4-33 (Principal Employers in the City of Simi Valley: 1997 and 2006), based on the latest information provided by the City, as of 2006, the number of employees working for the top ten employers in the City increased from 8,160 in 1997 to 10,950 in 2006. Overall, the share of the top ten principal employers constituted approximately 16.6 percent of total city employment in 2006 which is up from 13.8 percent in 1997. As shown in Table 2.4-33, Countywide Home Loans (4,262), Simi Valley School District (2,425), and Farmers Insurance Group (900) were the top three employers in the City of Simi Valley in 2006. Countywide Home Loans experienced the largest increase in terms of the percentage of total city employment from approximately 2.9 percent in 1997 to 6.5 percent in 2006. Further, due to fluctuations in the housing sector, the number of jobs in home financing and mortgage firms may vary vastly from one year to another.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-43 Chapter 2 Community Development
Of the firms that dropped out of the top-ten list between 1999 and 2006, four were technology oriented establishments. These firms were either acquired by larger entities or moved out of town. Bugle Boy, an apparel manufacturer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in February, 2000.4
Table 2.4-33 Principal Employers in the City of Simi Valley: 1997 and 2006
2006 1997
Employer Employees Rank Employees Rank Countrywide Home Loans 4,264 1 1,682 2 Simi Valley Unified School District 2,425 2 1,961 1 Farmers Insurance Group 900 3 792 4 Simi Valley Hospital & Health Care 799 4 958 3 City of Simi Valley 651 5 565 5 Milgard Manufacturing 497 6 - Vons Grocery Stores 460 7 - Albertson's Inc 348 8 - Meggitt Safety Systems, Inc 316 9 386 10 Rancho Simi Parks & Recreation District 290 10 - Bugle Boy - 533 6 Dataproducts - 503 7 Schlumberger Technology Inc - 391 8 Micom Communications Corp - 389 9 Total 10,950 8,160
Notes: "Total Employment" as used above represents the total employment of all employees located within City limits. 1. Percentage of Total City Employment for 1997 based on trend data. Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. City of Simi Valley State of California, Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division
Commute Patterns of Employees As shown in Table 2.4-34, based on data obtained from the Census Bureau’s Local Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD), in 2003 the City’s labor force represented about 31 percent of the total private sector employment within Simi Valley. Nearly 35 percent of employees in Simi Valley commuted from Los Angeles County in 2003.
4 Asian Week, Were those Bugle Boys You were Wearing? June 15–21, 2001.
2.4-44 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-34 Private Sector Employees by Place of Residence, City of Simi Valley: 2003
2003 Residence Count Share
Simi Valley 8,310 31.0%
Other Ventura Co. Locations
Thousand Oaks 1,362 5.1%
Moorpark 988 3.7%
Other 1,939 7.2%
Ventura Co. Subtotal: 12,599 47.0%
Los Angeles Co. 9,216 34.4%
Orange Co. 936 3.5%
San Diego Co. 616 2.3%
San Bernardino Co. 559 2.1%
Other Locations 2,862 10.7%
Total: 26,788 100.0%
Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman, Associates, Inc.
US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamic (LEHD)
Comparison of City Employment and City Labor Force As shown in Table 2.4-35, jobs in the City of Simi Valley are lower than the total employable civilian labor-force (population age 16 years and over) in the City. Based on data from EDD and factoring in self-employment rates, the City in 2005 was estimated to have 43,163 jobs. In comparison, according to the American Community Survey, the City’s labor force was 58,520, or 15,357 more than the jobs in the City. This analysis points to two areas of concern for the City’s future growth prospects, skills shortage and jobs shortage. For example, qualified labor force in the City in the health, education and social assistance sectors is higher compared to the jobs available in the City, indicative of net out-commuting to work. On the other hand, sectors like professional, technical, management and waste management jobs are higher than the number of persons in the labor force that work in these sectors.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-45 Chapter 2 Community Development
Table 2.4-35 Comparison of City Employment and City Labor Force, City of Simi Valley: 2005
JOBS 2005 1 LABOR FORCE 2005 2 JOBS to LABOR No. % Dist. No. % Dist. RATIO
CONSTRUCTION 4,041 9.4% 3,653 6.2% 1.11 MANUFACTURING 4,158 9.6% 7,911 13.5% 0.53 WHOLESALE TRADE 1,163 2.7% 1,913 3.3% 0.61 RETAIL TRADE 6,197 14.4% 8,560 14.6% 0.72 TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 384 0.9% 1,703 2.9% 0.23 INFORMATION 555 1.3% 3,213 5.5% 0.17
FINANCE & INSURANCE 4,584 10.6% n/a n/a n/a REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 680 1.6% n/a n/a n/a 5,264 12.2% 7,839 13.4% 0.67
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 2,081 4.8% n/a n/a n/a MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 2,532 5.9% n/a n/a n/a ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 3,527 8.2% n/a n/a n/a 8,140 18.9% 6,192 10.6% 1.31
EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 189 0.4% n/a n/a n/a HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 2,362 5.5% n/a n/a n/a 2,551 5.9% 9,543 16.3% 0.27
ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECRETION 893 2.1% n/a n/a n/a ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 4,113 9.5% n/a n/a n/a 5,006 11.6% 4,041 6.9% 1.24
OTHER SERVICES 1,632 3.8% 2,229 3.8% 0.73
FEDERAL GOVT 145 0.3% n/a n/a n/a STATE GOVT 24 0.1% n/a n/a n/a LOCAL GOVT 3,796 8.8% n/a n/a n/a 3,965 9.2% 1,669 2.9% 2.38
OTHER EMPLOYMENT 106 0.2% 54 0.1% 1.95
TOTAL 43,163 100.0% 58,520 100.0% 0.74
1. Jobs in 2005 in Simi Valley are based on data provided by the California Employment Development Department and includes estimates of self-employment by NAICS categories. 2. Employment of Civilian Population Age 16 years and over in the City of Simi Valley for 2005 provided by the Census American Community Survey.
2.4-46 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
2.4.6 Growth Forecasts: 2003–2035 The following sub-section presents the forecasts for the City of Simi Valley and Ventura County. The forecasts for the City were provided by the City of Simi Valley, Housing and Special Projects, Environmental Services Department. The forecasts for Ventura County were provided in March, 2007 at the transportation analysis zones (TAZ) level by Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) staff. These forecasts are subject to change upon the adoption of the final Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) 2007 document later in 2007. A similar estimation was conducted for the City of Simi Valley based on the aggregation of TAZs in the City, as shown in Figure 2.4-16. Thid was subsequently modified per the forecast inputs provided by the City of Simi Valley, Housing and Special Projects, Environmental Services Department for housing units, households and household population over the 2003 to 2035, while employment forecasts were obtained at the City-level from SCAG.
2.4.7 Adjustments to SCAG RTP 2007 Growth Forecasts Since, SCAG doesn’t forecast household population, an estimate of the same has been made by holding the estimated DOF July, 2005 group quarter population constant over the 2005 to 2035 forecast period. Therefore, the adjustment was made for Ventura County based on historic population and household data from the DOF for 2003 and 2005. A selection process was conducted to estimate growth forecasts for Ventura County by selecting TAZs coterminous with County boundaries. The forecasts for the County resulting from the aggregation of the selected TAZs are presented in Table 2.4-36 (Population, Household and Employment, DOF Benchmarked SCAG RTP 2007 TAZ Level Preliminary Forecasts, 2003 to 2035). The SCAG RTP 2007 forecasts for the projection period 2005 to 2035 are presented in five year increments from July of each year, after presenting from base year 2003.
Projected Population, Household and Employment Growth Forecasts City of Simi Valley As shown in Table 2.4-36, the preliminary SCAG RTP 2007 forecasts suggest that the City and the County grow at similar rates from 2005 to 2035. The household population in the City is projected to grow from 121,204 in 2005 to 129,789 in 2015, 133,288 in 2025 and 135,389 in 2035. The above reflects growth rates of 0.7 percent between 2005 and 2015, 0.3 percent between 2015 and 2025, and 0.2 percent between 2025 and 2035. Group quarter population is assumed to stay constant over the projection period at the 2006 estimate of 800 persons. Households are projected to grow at annual average rates of 0.7 percent, 0.3 percent and 0.2 percents over the 2005 to 2015, 2015 to 2025, and 2025 to 2035 forecast periods, respectively. The persons-per-household ratio in the City is currently projected by City Staff to stay constant at 3.09 between 2005 and 2035. Employment in the City is forecast by SCAG to increase from 42,239 jobs in 2005, to 66,761 jobs in 2035, growing faster than the growth in households. As a result of the faster employment growth, the jobs per household ratio in the City is projected to increase from 1.08 in 2005 to 1.52 in 2035.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-47 Chapter 2 Community Development
Traffic Analysis Zones
City of Simi Valley
Figure 2.4-16 Selection of SCAG RTP 2007 TAZs SOURCE: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.
2.4-48 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-36 Population, Households, and Employment, DOF Benchmarked SCAG RTP 2007 TAZ Level Preliminary Forecasts: 2003–2035
Annual Average Growth Rate
2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 Simi Valley Population 118,690 122,004 127,488 130,589 132,694 134,088 135,207 136,189 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Group Quarter Pop 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 Household Population1 117,890 121,204 126,688 129,789 131,894 133,288 134,407 135,389 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Households1 38,153 39,225 40,999 42,003 42,684 43,135 43,497 43,815 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Persons per Household1 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09
Housing Units 39,252 40,355 42,180 43,213 43,914 44,378 44,750 45,077 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
Vacant Units 1,099 1,130 1,181 1,210 1,230 1,243 1,253 1,262 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Vacancy Rate1 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Employment 40,862 42,239 45,870 49,565 53,796 58,219 62,411 66,761 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% Jobs per Household 1.07 1.08 1.12 1.18 1.26 1.35 1.43 1.52
Ventura County Population 798,829 814,055 862,191 906,353 948,622 990,140 1,030,108 1,069,937 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% Group Quarter Pop 12,738 13,323 13,323 13,323 13,323 13,323 13,323 13,323 Estimated Household Pop 786,091 800,732 848,868 893,030 935,299 976,817 1,016,785 1,056,614 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%
Households 254,427 259,993 275,735 290,666 305,738 322,115 336,934 350,706 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% Persons per Household 3.09 3.13 3.13 3.12 3.10 3.07 3.06 3.05
Housing Units 263,228 268,962 285,443 300,905 316,500 333,446 348,810 363,058 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% Vacant Units 8,801 8,969 9,708 10,239 10,762 11,331 11,876 12,352 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% Vacancy Rate 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Employment 334,506 345,352 373,448 397,458 417,802 437,549 458,134 479,935 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% Jobs per Household 1.31 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.36 1.37
1. Provided by the City of Simi Valley, Housing and Special Projects, Environmental Services Department
Source: Stanley R.Hoffman Associates, Inc. City of Simi Valley, Housing and Special Projects, Environmental Services Department. SCAG RTP 2007, Preliminary Draft March 2007.
Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-49 Chapter 2 Community Development
Ventura County The total population in the County is projected to grow from 798,829 in 2003 (DOF mid-year estimates) to 906,353 in 2015, 990,140 in 2025 and 1,069,937 in 2035. This reflects growth rates of 1.1 percent between 2005 and 2015, 0.9 percent between 2015 and 2025, and 0.8 percent between 2025 and 2035. The household population and households are forecast to grow at similar rates. Consequently, the persons per household ratio in the County declines from 3.13 in 2005 to 3.05 in 2035—a drop of 2.6 percent. Employment in Ventura County is forecast to increase from 345,352 jobs in 2005, to 479,935 jobs in 2035, growing at the same rate as households. However, the jobs per household ratio in the County is expected to remain stable at around 1.35 to 1.37 over the 2005 to 2035 forecast period.
160,000
135,389 131,894 133,288 134,407 140,000 129,789 126,688 121,204 120,000
100,000
80,000 66,761 62,411 53,796 58,219 60,000 45,870 49,565 42,239 40,000 39,225 40,999 42,003 42,684 43,135 43,497 43,815 20,000
- 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
HH POP HH EMP
Figure 2.4-17 Household Population, Households, and Employment Forecasts, City of Simi Valley: 2005–2035 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc., SCAG RTP 2007 March, 2007 Preliminary Estimates.
Factors for Land Use Demand from Economic Growth As shown in Table 2.4-37 (Employment Growth Rates by Land Use Categories, City of Simi Valley, SE Ventura County and Ventura County: 2001 to 2005), regrouping the EDD historic employment data from 2001 to 2005 by NAICS industry categories into relevant land use designations helps establish land use demand trends for the City in the future. The categories are Business Park, Office, Retail, Public, and Other.
2.4-50 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Table 2.4-37 Employment Growth Rates by Land Use Categories, City of Simi Valley, SE Ventura County, and Ventura County: 2001–2005
City of Simi Valley SE Ventura County Ventura County
EDD 2001 EDD 2001 EDD 2001 to 2005 to 2005 to 2005 Employment Categories EDD 2001 EDD 2005 AAGR EDD 2001 EDD 2005 AAGR EDD 2001 EDD 2005 AAGR
NAICS INDUSTRY CATEGORIES
CONSTRUCTION 2,425 3,076 6.1% 6,258 8,174 6.9% 16,044 18,853 4.1% MANUFACTURING 4,403 3,807 -3.6% 18,195 16,852 -1.9% 40,176 38,186 -1.3% WHOLESALE TRADE 1,282 1,039 -5.1% 3,637 4,660 6.4% 10,774 12,397 3.6% RETAIL TRADE 4,324 5,329 5.4% 13,100 15,350 4.0% 33,823 36,633 2.0% TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 169 329 18.1% 1,166 1,191 0.5% 4,988 4,691 -1.5% INFORMATION 745 503 -9.4% 3,938 2,760 -8.5% 8,246 5,978 -7.7% FINANCE & INSURANCE 4,652 4,083 -3.2% 10,070 10,889 2.0% 15,461 18,457 4.5% REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 377 511 7.9% 1,492 1,530 0.6% 4,216 4,447 1.3% PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 1,057 1,556 10.1% 5,555 6,971 5.8% 14,050 16,066 3.4% MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 523 2,380 46.1% 753 2,705 37.7% 3,420 5,213 11.1% ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 3,128 2,767 -3.0% 9,026 9,212 0.5% 19,599 19,284 -0.4% EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 49 172 36.9% 1,155 1,713 10.4% 2,592 3,395 7.0% HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 2,067 1,965 -1.3% 5,394 7,660 9.2% 21,440 23,662 2.5% ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECRETION 590 648 2.4% 1,544 2,301 10.5% 4,079 4,802 4.2% ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 2,789 3,677 7.2% 8,927 9,591 1.8% 22,846 24,524 1.8% OTHER SERVICES 1,004 1,224 5.1% 2,491 3,282 7.1% 8,797 9,942 3.1% FEDERAL GOVT 0 136 N/A 16 406 124.4% 7,912 7,574 -1.1% STATE GOVT 11 23 20.2% 26 52 18.9% 1,247 1,181 -1.4% LOCAL GOVT 3,927 3,568 -2.4% 9,744 9,669 -0.2% 33,078 33,522 0.3% OTHER EMPLOYMENT 103 166 12.5% 650 848 6.9% 20,521 24,075 4.1% TOTAL 33,625 36,959 2.4% 103,137 115,816 2.9% 293,309 312,882 1.6%
LAND USE CATEGORIES
1 Business Park 6,339 5,790 -2.2% 24,250 24,338 0.1% 59,146 59,044 0.0% 2 Office 8,967 10,589 4.2% 27,476 31,174 3.2% 57,785 63,198 2.3% 3 Retail 7,113 9,006 6.1% 22,027 24,941 3.2% 56,669 61,157 1.9% 4 Public 3,938 3,727 -1.4% 9,786 10,127 0.9% 42,237 42,277 0.0% Other 7,268 7,847 1.9% 19,599 25,236 6.5% 77,472 87,205 3.0% Total 33,625 36,959 2.4% 103,137 115,816 2.9% 293,309 312,882 1.6%
1. Includes manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and 20 percent of construction-related jobs. 2. Includes Information, Finance and Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing, Professional and Scientific activities, Management of Companies, Educational Services, and 50 percent of Administrative and Support and Waste Management. 3. Retail includes Retail Trade, and Accomodation and Food Services. 4. Public includes Federal, State and Local Government. Source: Stanley R.Hoffman Associates, Inc.
Employment growth rates were positive in the office and retail land use categories over the 2001 to 2005 period at 4.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. In contrast, employment in business park land use categories declined at a rate of 2.2 percent over this same period. However, since there has been a recent growth of retail activity in the City with the opening of the Simi Valley Town Center in 2005, the high retail employment growth trend is likely unsustainable over the approximately 30 year SCAG forecast period.
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Alternatively, as shown in Table 2.4-38 (City Share of Regional Employment by Land Use Categories City of Simi Valley, South East Ventura County and Ventura County 2001 and 2005), future employment trends can be established by examining the change in the capture by the City of overall employment growth by land use categories of the South East Ventura County region and the overall Ventura County.
Table 2.4-38 City Share of Regional Employment by Land Use Categories, City of Simi Valley, South East Ventura County, and Ventura County, 2001 and 2005
Land Use Categories City of Simi Valley South East Ventura County Ventura County 2001 2005 2001 2005 2001 2005
1 Business Park 6,339 5,790 24,250 24,338 59,146 59,044 2 Office 8,967 10,589 27,476 31,174 57,785 63,198 3 Retail 7,113 9,006 22,027 24,941 56,669 61,157 4 Public 3,938 3,727 9,786 10,127 42,237 42,277 Other 7,268 7,847 19,599 25,236 77,472 87,205 Total 33,625 36,959 103,137 115,816 293,309 312,882
City as Share of South East Ventura County Ventura County 2001 2005 2001 2005
1 Business Park 26.1% 23.8% 10.7% 9.8% 2 Office 32.6% 34.0% 15.5% 16.8% 3 Retail 32.3% 36.1% 12.6% 14.7% 4 Public 40.2% 36.8% 9.3% 8.8% Other 37.1% 31.1% 9.4% 9.0% Total 32.6% 31.9% 11.5% 11.8%
1. Includes manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and 20 percent of construction-related jobs.
2. Includes Information, Finance and Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing, Professional and Scientific activities, Management of Companies, Educational Services, and 50 percent of Administrative and Support and Waste Management.
3. Retail includes Retail Trade, and Accomodation and Food Services. 4. Public includes Federal, State and Local Government.
Source: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.
The overall employment share of the City has grown steadily as a percent of Ventura County (11.5 percent in 2001 to 11.8 percent in 2005) but it has declined marginally as a share of the South East Ventura County sub-region (32.6 percent in 2001 to 31.9 percent in 2005). The overall employment growth rate of the City was lower at 2.4 percent compared to S.E. Ventura County at 2.9 percent.
2.4-52 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Since the EDD provides only payroll data by NAICS categories, self employment rates calculated from the Census 2000 public use microdata sample are used to account for self employed individuals, as also shown by SCAG’s overall employment figures. As, shown in Table 2.4-39 (Employment Base by Land Use Categories including Self Employment, City of Simi Valley: 2005) shows the City’s economic base structure, as obtained from the 2005 EDD employment data, adjusted to include self employment rates by industry categories and calibrated to reflect SCAG’s 2005 estimate of total employment.
2.4.8 Issues The following issues have emerged regarding demographic and economic conditions and trends in the Planning Area.
Overall Population and Household Growth ■ Historic trends based on data from the Census Bureau from 1970 to 2000 show declining growth rates in population and households with declining persons per household ratios. ■ The average annual population growth rates from 1970 through 2006 was 2.0 percent. This has declined to 1.6 percent for the 2000 to 2006 period. ■ Similarly, the average annual household growth rates was 2.9 percent from 1970 to 2006, but has declined to 1.5 percent over the 2000 to 2006 period. ■ This has resulted in the average household size declining in Simi Valley from 4.15 in 1970 to 3.04 in 2000. From 2000 to 2006, the persons per household actually increased slightly to 3.06 according to DOF. This trend is similar for Ventura County, as a whole. ■ As a largely built-out City, the population growth rate has been slowing over the past which has implications for land demand, and the declining and then stabilizing person per household ratio also influences the mix and pricing of housing. ■ In light of the above, a reasonable question may be what events, variables, or circumstances are presumed to cause such significant change in the growth patterns. Further, is it reasonable to assume that the forecast growth is supportable by the existing land use zoning and development patterns in the City?
Age Distribution of Population ■ From 1990 to 2000, the City’s labor force in the 35 to 64 year age group grew from 37 percent of the total labor force in 1990 to about 42 percent in 2000, an increase of about 10,000 persons; in contrast, the labor force in the age group 35 to 64 years, declined from about 30 percent to 22 percent over this same period, or about 5,400 persons. ■ Also, the senior population in the 65 and over group increased by about 3,200, from 5.3 percent of the population in 1990 to 7.6 percent in 2000.
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Table 2.4-39 Employment Base by Land Use Categories including Self Employment, City of Simi Valley: 2005
Column A Self EDD 2005 incl. controlled to SCAG Employment Self Employment TAZ Employment EDD 2005 Rates 5 (A) 2005
CONSTRUCTION 3,076 19.0% 3,798 4,041 MANUFACTURING 3,807 2.6% 3,908 4,158 WHOLESALE TRADE 1,039 4.9% 1,093 1,163 RETAIL TRADE 5,329 8.5% 5,825 6,197 TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING 329 8.9% 361 384 INFORMATION 503 3.6% 522 555 FINANCE & INSURANCE 4,083 5.2% 4,309 4,584 REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING 511 20.0% 639 680 PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & TECHNICAL SKIL 1,556 20.5% 1,956 2,081 MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES 2,380 0.0% 2,380 2,532 ADMIN & SUPPORT & WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION 2,767 16.5% 3,315 3,527 EDUCATIONAL SERVICES 172 3.3% 178 189 HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 1,965 11.5% 2,220 2,362 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT, & RECRETION 648 22.8% 839 893 ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 3,677 4.9% 3,866 4,113 OTHER SERVICES 1,224 20.2% 1,534 1,632 FEDERAL GOVT 136 0.0% 136 145 STATE GOVT 23 0.0% 23 24 LOCAL GOVT 3,568 0.0% 3,568 3,796 OTHER EMPLOYMENT 166 99 106
TOTAL 36,959 8.90% 40,569 43,163 LAND USE CATEGORIES 1.06
1 Business Park 5,790 6,514 2 Office 10,589 12,385 3 Retail 9,006 10,311 4 Public 3,727 3,965 Other 7,847 9,988 Total 36,959 43,163
1. Includes manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and 20 percent of construction-related jobs. 2. Includes Information, Finance and Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing, Professional and Scientific activities, Management of Companies, Educational Services, and 50 percent of Administrative and Support and Waste Management. 3. Retail includes Retail Trade, and Accomodation and Food Services. 4. Public includes Federal, State and Local Government. 5. Calculated from the Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) for Ventura County as provided by SCAG staff.
Source: Stanley R.Hoffman Associates, Inc.
■ The City’s working population is expected to decline further as a percent of the total population with the continuing growth in retirement of the baby boomer generation. ■ In the context of planning for future economic growth and economic base diversification, the City will need to actively incorporate policies to attract a younger workforce. This includes taking into
2.4-54 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
consideration that housing supply and affordability currently serves as one of the main barriers to the entry for younger families to reside in the City. ■ Also, meeting the housing and program needs for an increasing senior population will continue to be an important focus of the General Plan.
Employment Base Analysis ■ Based on employment data from the California Employment Development Department (EDD), the City’s employment base grew at an annual average rate of 2.4 percent from 2001 to 2005. ■ The City’s economic base is increasingly specializing in retail and office-- especially managerial and finance and insurance activities, when compared to the County. ■ However, when compared to the immediate surroundings in South East Ventura County, the City’s economic base is less specialized in manufacturing, and other intellectual service activities including professional, scientific and technical, and information-related activities. ■ The City had a significantly lower average payroll wage of $38,969 in 2005 compared to the South East Ventura sub-region (30 percent lower) and to Ventura County, as a whole (16 percent lower). This was due to the higher proportion of jobs in low paying jobs (almost 25 percent in retail and accommodation and food services). ■ The SCAG 2007 forecast shows employment in the City growing faster than households over the 2005 to 2035 forecast period, with the jobs per household increasing from 1.10 in 2005 to 1.51 in 2035. ■ In order to achieve an increase in the jobs per household level will require an increase in land use intensity for underutilized parcels and an expansion of available land for future office and industrial development. ■ Also, in formulating an economic growth policy, the City will need to encourage activities in sectors with better paying jobs, especially those in the manufacturing, professional, scientific, and technical and information related employment categories.
Retail Sales Comparison ■ Based on information from the California State Board of Equalization, per capita taxable retail sales estimate in the City was $10,513 in 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars) compared to $11,293 for the County as a whole. ■ Though per capita taxable retail sales in the City increased by almost 43 percent from 1995 to 2005 (in constant 2006 dollars), the estimates for the City in 2005 were lower compared to the other Ventura County cities of Thousand Oaks, San Buenaventura, and Camarillo at $17,760, $16,795 and $12,657, respectively. ■ Indexing the distribution of retail sales per capita by different retail categories to those for Ventura County to calculate a “leakage index”, the City’s overall index of 0.93 indicates that Simi Valley captures less retail sales compared to the county-wide per capita average. ■ The retail categories in Simi Valley that are performing close or better than the Ventura County per capita average are General Merchandise (1.39), Service Stations (1.13), Food Stores (1.06) and Eating and Drinking Places (1.01).
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■ The less-than-average per capita taxable retail sales performance in other retail categories—such as Apparel Stores, Home Furnishings & Appliances, Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies—is an indication of potential opportunity for additional retail sales in those categories.
Market Demand Conditions ■ According to the City’s survey data, demand for commercial/office and industrial space has been strong with low vacancies of 2.0 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively; low vacancy rates have persisted because of low construction activity due to lack of available land. ■ According to the 2003 Census longitudinal employer-household dynamics (LEHD), only 19 percent of the labor force employed in primary private sector jobs lives and works in Simi Valley; economic development policies should focus on retaining and increasing the share of the City’s labor force.
Future Land Use Demand Opportunities ■ The City is expected to encounter greater demand for vacant land and increased land use intensification from a burgeoning housing demand and from the need to diversify the City’s economic base. ■ Increased affordable housing supply will be crucial in maintaining a younger workforce in the City, while a diverse workforce will be essential to serve an expanding economic base. ■ The simultaneous expansion of the local workforce and the City’s economic base will need a mix of growth strategies to provide housing choices and improved public transportation access including mixed use policies oriented around transit. ■ Further, the need to diversify the economic base to attract better paying jobs especially in the manufacturing and office related sectors implies a greater demand for vacant industrial/business park lands, accompanied by higher land use intensities in existing and newer commercial and industrial areas. ■ Retail opportunities in light of the estimated retail leakage from City could potentially be pursued by recycling older commercial developments, and mixed use commercial and residential strategies.
2.4.9 Sources A retail and industrial field survey of the City of Simi Valley and surrounding areas conducted in March, 2007. Apartment Rental Survey provided by the City of Simi Valley for the year 2006. Building activity data for the City of Simi Valley from the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) for 1992- 2005. Demographic data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000, and the California Department of Finance, 1970 to 2006. Employment data for the City of Simi Valley, surrounding areas and Ventura County provided by the California Employment Development Department for 2001, 2003 and 2005. Population, Household and Employment projections for 2003–2035 from the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Regional Transportation Plan, 2007; Preliminary Draft March 2007.
2.4-56 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends
Population, households and employment data for the SCAG benchmark year of 2003 provided by the City of Simi Valley. Published literature regarding retail activity, including C.B Richard Ellis and the National Research Bureau’s 2003 Shopping Center Directory and the Urban Land Institute’s Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers, 2004. Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. (SHRA) 2007. Draft City of Simi Valley General Plan Update Economic Trends and Conditions, 4 April 2007. Taxable sales data for the City of Simi Valley and nearby communities, for 1995 and 2005, from the California State Board of Equalization.
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