2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends 2.4 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND TRENDS 2.4.1 Introduction This section provides information on existing demographic and economic conditions and trends in the City of Simi Valley. This encompasses data for population and household characteristics, employment base, construction activity and market conditions. The findings of this section will facilitate discussion of existing and future economic development efforts such as assembly of new and revitalized land areas and business retention and attraction programs. These goals and policies will be developed to ensure that the City is able to establish and maintain a strong economic base and will be linked with land use planning policies. A strong economy not only provides workers with adequate income to afford a high quality of life, but it also provides local government with adequate public revenues to maintain a high quality of public services. The goal is to identify target economic opportunities that are both realistic and compatible with the City’s General Plan vision. In this context, the growth of the City’s economic base will depend on the identification of key growth sectors. Job types, salary and skill levels, income, land availability and location, and housing affordability are also important attributes of the economy. The three main land use policy directions with regards to improving the jobs situation in the City relate to (1) the identification of available land for future office and industrial development; (2) the increase of land use intensity for identified underutilized parcels; and (3) the development of retail opportunities, particularly on older, deteriorated retail sites that present mixed use opportunities. Regional Setting The City of Simi Valley is located in the southeast corner of Ventura County, bordering the San Fernando Valley and approximately 40 miles away from Downtown Los Angeles. A largely suburban community, residents commute to Los Angeles for work via the Ronald Reagan 118 Freeway or the Southern California Metrolink Commuter Train, which makes several daily trips through Simi Valley into Downtown Los Angeles. The Simi Valley Station, serviced by Amtrak, Metrolink, and Simi Valley Transit buses seven days a week, provides transportation connections from Simi Valley north to Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo, and south to Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. The City has regional air connectivity from a number of airports in the Southern California region. The nearest national airport is Bob Hope Airport located about 25 miles away in Burbank with Los Angeles International Airport about 40 miles away. Study Area Overview The following section focuses primarily on the City of Simi Valley. Data on neighboring cities and Ventura County are provided for comparing the City’s performance in key areas like population and household growth, employment growth, retail sales performance, and construction activity. Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-1 Chapter 2 Community Development Additionally, data for Simi Valley is presented since 1970, in order to provide analysis of historic growth trends. These trends are compared to long-term forecasts of demographic and economic change in the City made by the Southern California Council of Governments (SCAG). 2.4.2 Demographic Characteristics This section provides a descriptive profile of existing demographic characteristics and trends including population, households, household income, and education. In addition, key demographics for Ventura County, including population, households, and income are discussed for comparison. Population and Households The population in the City of Simi Valley has been growing over the past 35 years from 59,832 in 1970 to 122,708 in 2006, as shown in Figure 2.4-1 (Population Growth, City of Simi Valley: 1970 to 2007). The population in the City grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent over this period. However, the population growth rate slowed to an average annual rate of 1.3 percent over the past 10 years. Households have grown from 14,347 in 1970 to 39,815 in 2006 at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent as shown in Figure 2.4-3; this has resulted in a decrease in the average household size from 4.15 in 1970 to 3.06 in 2006. As shown in Table 2.4-1, population and households in the City, as well as in Ventura Country, grew at approximately the same annual rate of 1.0 to 1.3 percent from 1990 to 2000. As shown in Table 2.4-1 (Population and Households: City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000), the City experienced a decline in terms of the household population growth rate. During the time periods from 1970 to 1980 the household population growth rate in the City was 2.6 percent. However, during the time periods from 2000-2006, the rate in the City was only 1.6 percent. As the City moves towards buildout, the population growth rate has been slowing over the past which has implications for land demand. The declining and stabilizing person per household ratio also influences the mix and pricing of housing. 2.4-2 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends 140,000 122,708 (2006) 120,000 121,096 111,351 100,000 100,217 100,400 80,000 85,500 77,500 60,000 69,500 59,832 40,000 20,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure 2.4-1 Total Population Growth, City of Simi Valley: 1970–2006 SOURCES: SHRA 2007; U.S. Bureau of the Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000; Department of Finance 1970–2006 NOTE: Total Population includes group quarter population in addition to household population. Group quarter population was estimated at 800 persons in 2006, while household population was estimated at 121,908 (as shown in Figure 2.4-2) for a total population of 122,708 (as shown above). 140,000 121,908 120,000 110,551 99,848 100,000 PPH = 3.06 PPH = 3.04 77,178 80,000 PPH = 3.12 59,556 PPH = 3.52 60,000 PPH = 4.15 39,815 36,421 40,000 31,998 21,933 14,347 20,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 Household Population Households Figure 2.4-2 Growth of Household Population and Households: City of Simi Valley: 1970–2006 SOURCES: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc.; U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, California Department of Finance, 2006. NOTE: Data for 2006 is from the California Department of Finance. Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4-3 Chapter 2 Community Development Table 2.4-1 Population and Households: City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000 Annual Average Growth Rate/Number 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2006 Simi Valley Household Population 59,556 77,178 99,848 110,551 121,908 2.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 1,762 2,267 1,070 1,893 Households 14,347 21,933 31,998 36,421 39,815 4.3% 3.8% 1.3% 1.5% 759 1,007 442 566 Persons per Household 4.15 3.52 3.12 3.04 3.06 -1.6% -1.2% -0.3% 0.1% Ventura County Household Population n/a n/a 655,317 739,985 803,958 n/a n/a 1.2% 1.4% n/a n/a 8,467 10,662 Households 106,469 172,781 217,298 243,234 261,570 5.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% 6,631 4,452 2,594 3,056 Persons per Household 3.43 3.00 3.02 3.04 3.07 -1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Sources: Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. Research Network Ltd. U.S. Census, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 California Department of Finance (DOF), 2006 Age Distribution, City and County: 1990 and 2000 As shown in Table 2.4-2, the age composition of the City and the County in 2000 increased where almost 50 percent of their respective populations were in the combined age groups of 35 to 64 and 65 and over. During this period, population in the age group 35 to 64 increased from 36,762 (36.7 percent) to 46,628 (41.9 percent) of the total population. This indicates a growing and experienced workforce population in the City of Simi Valley. However, the population in the age group 18 to 34 in the City declined from 29.9 percent in 1990 to 22.0 percent in 2000. As shown in Figure 2.4-4, the age distribution is illustrated with a percentage comparison between the City and Ventura County. 2.4-4 Simi Valley General Plan Update Technical Background Report 2.4 Demographic and Economic Conditions and Trends Table 2.4-2 Age Distribution, City of Simi Valley and Ventura County: 1990 and 2000 Percent of Percent of Jurisdiction 1990 Total 2000 Total Simi Valley Under 18 28,255 28.2% 31,679 28.4% 18 to 34 29,927 29.9% 24,540 22.0% 35 to 64 36,762 36.7% 46,628 41.9% 65 and over 5,273 5.3% 8,504 7.6% Simi Valley Total 100,217 100.0% 111,351 100.0% Ventura County Under 18 182,986 27.4% 214,244 28.4% 18 to 34 192,668 28.8% 171,686 22.8% 35 to 64 230,357 34.4% 290,463 38.6% 65 and over 63,005 9.4% 76,804 10.2% Ventura County Total 669,016 100.0% 753,197 100.0% Sources: Stanley R.