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MAY 2013 Coast Corridor SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PLAN The contents of this report reflect the views of the author who is responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the State of California or the Federal Railroad Administration. This publication does not constitute a standard, specification or regulation. FINAL SUBMITTAL May 2013 SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PLAN Coast Corridor Prepared for Prepared by California Department of Transportation AECOM 1120 N Street 2101 Webster Street #1900 P.O. Box 942874 Oakland, CA 94612 Sacramento, CA 95814 with Cambridge Systematics & Arellano Associates [This page intentionally blank] Coast Corridor Service Development Plan May 2013 Contents 1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1.1 Organization of the Coast Corridor SDP ................................................................................ 1-3 1.2 Relationship of the Coast Corridor SDP to Other Documents ................................................... 1-4 1.2.1 SDP Support for State Rail Plan ............................................................................................ 1-4 1.2.2 Integration with other SDPs ................................................................................................... 1-4 1.2.3 Relationship to Corridor Environmental Analyses .................................................................. 1-4 2.0 Purpose and Need ......................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Purpose ...................................................................................................................................... 2-3 2.2 Need ........................................................................................................................................... 2-5 2.2.1 Corridor Transportation Market Challenges ........................................................................... 2-5 2.2.2 Source: Moody’s Economy.com, 2011. Corridor Transportation Market Opportunities ........ 2-6 2.2.3 Current and Forecasted Demand ........................................................................................... 2-7 2.2.4 Corridor Capacity Constraints ................................................................................................ 2-9 2.3 Scope and Objective of the Plan .............................................................................................. 2-10 2.3.1 Scope ................................................................................................................................... 2-10 2.3.2 Objectives ............................................................................................................................. 2-11 3.0 Rationale ........................................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Capacity Benefits ....................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.2 Multi-Modal System Benefits ...................................................................................................... 3-2 3.3 Operational Benefits ................................................................................................................... 3-2 4.0 Identification of Alternatives ........................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Previous Corridor Planning Studies ........................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 Corridor Rail Service Plans .................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.2 Corridor Rail Service Improvements ...................................................................................... 4-2 4.2 No-Build Alternative ................................................................................................................... 4-3 4.3 Build Alternative ......................................................................................................................... 4-3 4.3.1 Long-Term (2020–2040) Improvements ................................................................................ 4-6 5.0 Evaluation of Alternatives ............................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Purpose and Need Criteria ......................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Technical Feasibility ................................................................................................................... 5-5 5.3 Economic Feasibility .................................................................................................................. 5-6 5.4 Environmental Resources and Quality ....................................................................................... 5-7 5.5 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 5-8 6.0 Planning Methodologies ................................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1 Planning Horizons ...................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1.1 Year 2020 (Near-Term) .......................................................................................................... 6-1 Page i Coast Corridor Service Development Plan May 2013 6.1.2 Year 2040 (Long-Term) .......................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Major Overall Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 6-1 6.2.1 Socioeconomic Data .............................................................................................................. 6-2 6.2.2 Forecasting Assumptions ....................................................................................................... 6-2 6.2.3 Freight Rail Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................... 6-4 6.2.4 Market Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 6-6 6.2.5 GIS Methodology ................................................................................................................... 6-7 6.2.6 Alternatives Analysis Methodology ........................................................................................ 6-8 7.0 Outreach Efforts ............................................................................................................................. 7-1 7.1 Stakeholder Meetings ................................................................................................................ 7-1 7.1.1 California State Rail Plan Advisory Committee ...................................................................... 7-1 7.1.2 State Agencies/Regional Agencies ........................................................................................ 7-2 7.1.3 SDP Rail Corridor Committees and Railroads ....................................................................... 7-3 7.2 Public Meetings .......................................................................................................................... 7-4 8.0 Ridership Demand and Revenue Forecast .................................................................................... 8-1 8.1 Passenger Rail Forecast ............................................................................................................ 8-1 8.1.1 Methodology and Approach ................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1.2 Study Area Definition ............................................................................................................. 8-1 8.1.3 Data Sources and Assumptions ............................................................................................. 8-2 8.1.4 Travel Demand Model ............................................................................................................ 8-3 8.1.5 Baseline and Future Scenarios Forecasted Ridership .......................................................... 8-4 8.2 Revenue Forecast ...................................................................................................................... 8-4 8.2.1 Ticket Revenue Forecast ....................................................................................................... 8-4 8.2.2 Auxiliary Revenue Forecast ................................................................................................... 8-5 9.0 Operations Modeling ...................................................................................................................... 9-1 9.1 Modeling Methodology ............................................................................................................... 9-2 9.1.1 Service Network