Monday, January 18, 2016
China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Morning Express Hong Kong Equity Research
Stock Market Indices Close 1-day chg % chg CMS(HK) Research Highlights Hang Seng Index 19520 -296.64 -1.5 Hang Seng Finance Index 27015 -440.11 -1.6
China Merchants Land (978 HK, HK$1.11, BUY, TP HK$1.7) Hang Seng Utilities Index 49146 -134.48 -0.27 Hang Seng Property Index 26466 -517.65 -1.92 Positive on 2016 developments Hang Seng Industrial Index 11167 -161.22 -1.42 HSCEI 8236 -223.35 -2.64 ■ In 2016, we expect CM Land to speed up the cooperation with its parent CSI 300 3118 -102.84 -3.19 with potential project participation in Qianhai and HK Shanghai Composite Index 2900 -106.68 -3.55 TWSE 7762 +19.13 +0.25 ■ After downward earnings revision, we estimate 147% YoY core profit growth in FY16E, thanks to substantial jump in project booking Global Last price chg %chg ■ We lowered TP by 15% to HK$1.7 based on a lowered NAV due to RMB Brent Oil 29.11 -1.77 -5.73 depreciation. We regard current 57% discount to NAV attractive. Maintain COMEX Gold 1088.6 +15.0 +1.4 BUY COMEX Copper 194.85 -2.75 -1.39 LME Aluminum 1472.5 -10.0 -0.67 Revised down earnings due to slow developments LME Copper 4325.5 -90.0 -2.04 BDI 373.0 -10.0 -2.61 From CRIC and Soufun data, we noted that CM Land’s contracted sales and project completion progress were slower than estimated. In view of the slight negative impact from recent RMB depreciation, we revised down Exchange/interest rates Last price chg %chg USD/RMB 6.58 -0.01 -0.09 FY15/16E earnings by 14%/12%. Since most projects of CML will be USD/HKD 7.8 +0.01 +0.17 completed in FY16E, it would result in 85% YoY surge in revenue, boosting EUR/USD 1.09 +0.01 +0.51 the profit by 147% YoY to RMB952mn in FY16E. 1Y RMB NDF 6.92 +0.01 +0.16 Potential new developments in Qianhai and HK 3M Libor 0.62 -0.0 -0.14 3M Shibor 3.01 -0.02 -0.63 In 2016, we expect the key catalyst to arise from asset injection from the 10Y US T-Note Yield 2.03 -0.07 -3.33 parent company. Its parent, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone (001979 CH), has completed its restructuring and re-listing in Dec 2015. HSI vs. HSCEI vs. CSI 300 We believe it would speed up CML’s adjustment in landbank portfolio with (%) HSI HSCEI CSI300 the participation in Shenzhen Qianhai property developments. CML is also 72 actively looking for development opportunities in Hong Kong. It is possible 52 for its parent to inject some existing HK assets or landbank into CML in 32 2016 in our view. 12 57% NAV discount, about 1SD below mean -8 We slightly revised down our 1-year forward NAV to HK$2.7/share -28 (Previous: HK$3.1/share) due to slower-than-expected project booking and Jan/15 Mar/15 May/15 Jul/15 Sep/15 Nov/15 negative impact from RMB depreciation. Maintain BUY and revise down TP Source: Bigdata to HK$1.7, based on the same 36% discount (Previous: 36%) to 1-year
forward NAV, compared to the current 57% discount. (John SO)
Wynn Macau (1128 HK, HK$7.24, NEUTRAL, TP HK$8.7) Preliminary 4Q15; what matters is why “pre”; impact +ve
■ Wynn Macau reported preliminary 4Q15 operational data through its parent, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US). Adj. property EBITDA to range US$156-164mn. Midpoint implies 7% upside from our forecast ■ “Pre” announcement to cheer up market value of both Wynn Resorts and Wynn Macau after a sharp 26% and 20% decline YTD ■ Relieved from consensus earnings cut but concern on margin before
Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. China Merchants Securities (CMS) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CMS research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CMS research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1
Monday, January 18, 2016
Wynn Palace’s opening remains. Maintain NEUTRAL EBITDA stabilizing through shift in revenue mix 4Q15 adj. property EBITDA was guided to report 32%-35% YoY decline, - 4% to +1% QoQ change, implying QoQ stabilization after a 6% QoQ decline in 3Q15. Net revenue will fall 28-26% YoY, 4-5% QoQ. Sharper- than-expected fall in VIP GGR (11% below our estimate) was partially offset by strong mass (7% above our estimate). On a QoQ basis, Wynn Macau removed 36 VIP gaming tables and allocated 24 more mass gaming tables. EBITDA margin improvement remained flat QoQ. Sudden “pre” likely to benefit the stock price stabilizing Mgmt took proactive approach by making preliminary result announcement to dilute market concerns over the company’s profitability. The most recent preliminary announcement was made for parent’s 2Q10 results. Positive surprise from result itself is not massive but it will help market stop de- rating the company on potential earnings miss as sharply as in early January, in our view. As a result, we expect the event to impact both Wynn Macau and the sector in a positive way. Earnings still under pressure; maintain NEUTRAL Wynn Macau is trading at 21x FY16E P/E and 12x EV/EBITDA, at a slight premium to Macau gaming peers. Although 4Q15 preannouncement implies slightly better results than our estimates, we are still concerned on Wynn Macau’s near-term outlook because 1) 1Q-2Q16E will be tough for Wynn Macau bearing pre-opening expenses from Wynn Palace’s opening, 2) Wynn Palace is likely to target at high-end gamblers, which are still suffering from unfavourable macro and policy reasons and 3) competition from Cotai peers are intensifying while a number of them offer highly differentiated products. Thus, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating with TP of HK$8.70. (Angela HAN LEE)
Macau Gaming 4Q15E preview: calming results with improvement ahead
■ Industry 4Q15E EBITDA will contract 4% QoQ (3Q15: flat QoQ) on weakening Peninsula VIP business and hiking expenses ■ We estimate 28% YoY decline for 4Q15E sector EBITDA on 27% GGR YoY contraction; SJM (880 HK)’s EBITDA (+9% QoQ) to lead sector’s QoQ performance while main dragger to be Melco Crown (-20% QoQ) on increased expenses related to Studio City’s opening ■ We like Melco Crown (fundamentals bottomed but stock oversold) and Galaxy (Galaxy Macau 2 continues ramp-up), while Sands China (1928 HK) offers high yield of 9% QoQ industry EBITDA contraction as expected 4Q15 overall GGR reached MOP54.8bn with 27% YoY decline. 1% QoQ increase in overall GGR showed stabilizing trend in mass market gaming partially offset by another drop in VIP revenue. The revenue shift towards high margin grind mass and ramp-up of Galaxy Macau 2 helped EBITDA but it was dragged by the elevated cost with the opening of Studio City in Late October. We expect 4Q15E industry EBITDA to be down 4% QoQ, following flat QoQ EBITDA trend in 3Q15.
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Monday, January 18, 2016
January GGR trending in line We currently expect Jan GGR to decline 26-27% YoY, -5% QoQ. It differs from 2% QoQ recovery in Jan 2015, because January last year was positively impacted by increased foot traffic soon after President Xi’s visit in Dec 2014. Daily GGR ranged from MOP560mn-600mn early this month, but we and market broadly expect it to decline gradually in late January due to the seasonal weakness with Chinese New Year approaching. Accumulate valuation laggards during result reason The sector currently trades at 18x FY16E P/E and 12x EV/EBITDA. While it is still early to re-rate the sector, we think the recent pullback from volatile stock market provides a buying opportunity for stocks which are 1) valuation laggards and 2) not impacted from RMB weakness in terms of revenue and cost structure. Our top picks are Melco Crown (MPEL US) and Galaxy (27 HK). (Angela HAN LEE)
China Banks December financial data showed early signs of improvement in new loan structure although headline readings missed
■ New loans reported at RMB598 bn in December 2015, much lower than the consensus of RMB700 bn, mainly dragged by a net decrease of RMB220 bn in interbank new loans ■ Total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB1.82 trn in December, topping Bloomberg consensus of RMB1.15 trn, partially driven by a recovery in shadow banking credit and stronger direct financing ■ Total deposits edged down RMB37 bn in December on a large outflow of RMB1.46 trn from fiscal deposits; M2 growth slowed to 13.3% YoY, ahead of the full-year target of 12.0% for 2015 Total new loans missed while its structure improved New loans dropped 15.7% MoM to RMB598 bn in December, lower than consensus of RMB700 bn, mainly dragged by a decline of RMB220 bn in interbank new loans. Despite the lower-than-expected headline readings, new loans to real economy remained stable at RMB833 bn in December vs RMB887 bn in November. Investment interest from enterprises showed preliminary sign of improvement as evidenced by a surge in medium & long-term new loans, which up 163.0% MoM to RMB346 bn in December, accounting for 57.9% of total new loans in December compared to 18.6% in November. Bill financing turned negative from RMB143 bn in November to -RMB66 bn in December probably due to the tightened regulation over this business. Long-term residential new loans slipped 10.8% MoM to RMB292 bn, probably due to homebuyers waiting for the repricing of mortgage loans on 1 January 2016, and thus we look for a potential rebound in mortgage loans in January. The full-year new loans amounted to RMB11.7 trn in 2015, representing a YoY growth of 19.7% or RMB1.93 trn. TSF beat consensus on a recovery of shadow banking credit and robust direct financing TSF increased 78.8% MoM to RMB1.82 trn in December, much higher than the consensus of RMB1.15 trn. Shadow banking rebounded to RMB540 bn in December from -RMB194 bn in November. Direct financing stayed robust as corporate bond and equity financing jumped 40.0% and 169.6%
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Monday, January 18, 2016
MoM to RMB470 bn and RMB153 bn, respectively, which represented 25.8% and 8.4% of total TSF. Catalysts and valuation Further loosening monetary policies, favorable fiscal policies, any progress in mixed-ownership reform and potential approval on mixed-business operation for China banks could be positive catalysts for share prices. Trading at 0.59x FY16E P/B and 4.21x FY16E P/E with FY16E dividend yield of 7.12%, the sector’s valuation is attractive compared to historical average of 1.25x P/B and 7.19x P/E. Remain cautiously positive on the sector and reiterate OVERWEIGHT rating with BOC (3988 HK) as our top pick. (Donger WANG)
A-share Research Highlights (Source: CMS Research Center)
Virtual Reality Industry In-depth Report VR is such a big world, I want to see
VR: explosive growth to begin in the year of 2016. Virtual Reality (VR) refers to the use of computer simulation technology to create a virtual world as an analog of the real world. It has three characteristics: immersion, interaction and imagination. Its existence can be dated back to 1960s. We believe the industry development is about to see explosive growth. VR: next-generation computing platform to address the issue of distance. The massive adoption of smartphones as represented by iPhone has resulted in the explosive growth of mobile Internet, which to a certain extent has resolved the ache of “distance” between people by its versatility. VR will become the next-generation computing platform and will further resolve the ache of “distance.” VR will create an interactive mode for all while AR will be the future direction with tremendous space for development. VR: tremendous commercial space to start opening up. At present, VR already has a comprehensive industry chain. The key to establish its industry advantage is the combination of hardware and content. In 2016, the shipment of global VR equipment is expected to exceed 5 mn units, which will reach 30 mn in 2020. The size of VR/AR market will surpass US$150 mn in 2020, with gradually increasing percentage of content revenue. Look for barbarians in the VR ecosystem. We are optimistic towards companies which focus on their development in the VR ecosystem with their strategically prominent positions in the industry chain, namely Shunwang Technology (300113), Liaison Interactive (002280), Alpha Animation (002292), Taiya Shoes (002517); and beneficiaries from the rising of VR industry with strong synergies, namely Huawen Media (000793), Lingnan Landscape (002717), Xun You Network (300467), Visual China (000681), ESUN Display (002751) etc.. Risk reminders: intensified market competition; hardware volume growth
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below expectation; difficult to have unified industry standard. (Fang Guangzhao and Wang Jingle, Jan 14, 2016)
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What to Watch
Economic Data
Date Event Prior Forecast China 2016/01/19 Urban investment (ytd)yy 10.20% 10.20% China Industrial Output YY 6.20% 6.00% China Retail Sales YY 11.20% 11.30% China GDP YY 6.90% 6.80% Germany CPI Final MM 0.10% -- Germany HICP Final MM 0.10% -- Euro zone Inflation Final MM -0.10% -0.10% Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment 16.1 10 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Indx 61 61 Germany 2016/01/20 Producer Prices MM -0.20% -0.40% U.S. CPI YY, NSA 0.50% 0.80% U.S. Core CPI YY, NSA 2% 2.10% U.S. Build Permits: Change MM 11% -- U.S. Housing Starts Number MM 1.17mn 1.19mn U.S. 2016/01/21 API weekly crude stocks -- -- Euro zone ECB Refinancing Rate 0.05% -- Euro zone ECB Deposit Rate -0.30% -- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 284k -- U.S. Philly Fed Business Indx -0.9 -0.9 Euro zone Consumer Confid. Flash -5.7 -5.7 U.S. 2016/01/22 EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 0.23mn -- U.S. Existing Home Sales 4.76mn 5.18mn U.S. Leading Index Chg MM 0.40% 0.10% 单击此处输入文字。
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Research Coverage List As of January 18, 2016. Updated weekly.
Share px Mkt cap EPS P/E Company Ticker Rating Jan. 15 12-month TP % Upside (US$mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E Analyst Auto & Auto Parts Brilliance China 1114 HK BUY HK$8.0 HK$12.5 56 5,201 1.07 0.86 0.99 5.9 7.5 6.5 Liang Yonghuo China ZhengTong Auto 1728 HK BUY HK$2.83 HK$5.48 94 807 0.36 0.42 0.51 6.2 5.4 4.5 Liang Yonghuo Geely Automobile 175 HK BUY HK$3.41 HK$4.8 41 3,886 0.16 0.28 0.35 16.9 9.8 7.9 Liang Yonghuo BAIC Motor 1958 HK NEUTRAL HK$5.98 HK$8.0 34 5,792 0.70 0.56 0.67 6.8 8.6 7.2 Liang Yonghuo Great Wall Motor 2333 HK BUY HK$6.75 HK$12.5 85 7,957 0.88 0.98 1.10 6.1 5.5 5.0 Liang Yonghuo Fuyao Glass 3606 HK BUY HK$16.52 HK$20.0 21 5,346 1.11 1.09 1.17 11.8 12.1 11.4 Liang Yonghuo China Harmony Auto 3836 HK BUY HK$4.26 HK$6.91 62 866 0.50 0.42 0.44 6.8 8.1 7.8 Liang Yonghuo Zhongsheng Group 881 HK NEUTRAL HK$4.06 HK$4.75 17 1,124 0.35 0.39 0.48 9.2 8.3 6.8 Liang Yonghuo Oil and Gas Sinopec Oilfield Service 1033 HK NEUTRAL HK$1.74 HK$2.7 55 4,744 0.16 -0.16 0.03 12.9 N.A. 70.0 Anna YU China Oilfield Services 2883 HK NEUTRAL HK$5.26 HK$8.7 65 3,238 0.97 -0.64 0.10 4.3 N.A. 42.5 Anna YU Petrochina 857 HK BUY HK$4.38 HK$8.3 89 103,411 0.59 0.24 0.23 5.9 14.6 15.4 Anna YU CNOOC 883 HK BUY HK$7.06 HK$10.8 53 40,662 1.35 0.45 0.66 4.2 12.6 8.6 Anna YU Property China Resources Land 1109 HK BUY HK$17.7 HK$23.8 34 15,826 2.43 2.29 2.36 7.3 7.7 7.5 John SO Yuzhou Property 1628 HK BUY HK$1.87 HK$2.4 28 920 0.36 0.44 0.46 5.2 4.3 4.1 John SO KWG Property 1813 HK NEUTRAL HK$4.52 HK$5.9 31 1,700 1.07 1.22 1.42 4.2 3.7 3.2 John SO Country Garden 2007 HK NEUTRAL HK$2.95 HK$2.7 -8 8,596 0.65 0.50 0.56 4.5 5.9 5.3 John SO Agile Property 3383 HK BUY HK$3.8 HK$4.8 26 1,920 1.55 0.98 1.13 2.5 3.9 3.4 John SO Greentown China 3900 HK NEUTRAL HK$6.07 HK$7.3 20 1,693 0.97 1.31 1.51 6.3 4.6 4.0 John SO China Overseas Land 688 HK BUY HK$22.1 HK$30.0 36 28,113 3.39 3.51 3.86 6.5 6.3 5.7 John SO CH OVS G OCEANS 81 HK BUY HK$2.68 HK$3.0 12 789 0.55 0.47 0.66 4.9 5.7 4.1 John SO Shimao Property 813 HK BUY HK$11.18 HK$17.7 58 5,008 2.63 2.76 3.04 4.3 4.1 3.7 John SO CIFI Holdings 884 HK BUY HK$1.46 HK$2.0 37 1,274 0.39 0.44 0.47 3.7 3.3 3.1 John SO China Merchants Land 978 HK BUY HK$1.11 HK$1.7 53 702 0.09 0.09 0.22 9.8 9.9 4.1 John SO Technology, Media & Telecom China Telecom 728 HK NEUTRAL HK$3.49 HK$4.37 25 6,248 0.22 0.24 0.25 12.6 11.6 11.3 Alex NG China Unicom 762 HK BUY HK$8.51 HK$12.21 43 26,289 0.51 0.54 0.56 13.2 12.6 12.3 Alex NG China Mobile 941 HK BUY HK$80.45 HK$117.5 46 211,499 5.38 5.77 5.90 11.9 11.2 11.0 Alex NG
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Share px Mkt cap EPS P/E Company Ticker Rating Jan. 15 12-month TP % Upside (US$mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E Analyst Wisdom 1661 HK BUY HK$3.95 HK$7.0 77 820 0.17 0.18 0.22 18.4 17.6 14.5 Jeff HAO C CHUANGLIAN ED 2371 HK BUY HK$0.17 HK$0.79 362 102 0.01 0.01 0.02 13.5 13.6 6.9 Jeff HAO Kingdee 268 HK NEUTRAL HK$2.77 HK$1.4 -49 911 0.08 0.10 N.A. 27.5 22.2 N.A. Jeff HAO Kingsoft 3888 HK BUY HK$15.18 HK$27.42 81 2,491 0.63 0.33 0.71 19.1 36.8 17.3 Jeff HAO Boyaa Interactive 434 HK NEUTRAL HK$2.94 HK$3.7 26 289 0.42 0.25 0.29 5.6 9.4 8.2 Jeff HAO Car Inc 699 HK BUY HK$9.94 HK$23.15 133 3,031 0.22 0.46 0.86 35.8 17.3 9.3 Jeff HAO Tencent 700 HK BUY HK$137.0 HK$174.0 27 32,954 2.54 3.24 4.20 42.8 33.8 26.3 Jeff HAO NetDragon 777 HK BUY HK$19.78 HK$41.3 109 1,263 0.34 0.03 0.23 46.1 527.7 69.4 Jeff HAO Linekong Interactive 8267 HK NEUTRAL HK$4.78 HK$5.33 12 205 0.49 0.16 0.44 7.7 23.9 8.8 Jeff HAO Cheetah Mobile CMCM US BUY US$15.0 US$40.0 167 2,061 1.80 1.39 7.30 59.1 76.3 14.6 Jeff HAO 58.com WUBA US BUY US$55.06 US$93.0 69 2,709 0.26 -1.02 1.31 211.8 N.A. 42.0 Jeff HAO Hardware Technology Cowell 1415 HK NEUTRAL HK$2.3 HK$4.05 76 247 0.07 0.07 0.09 4.2 4.2 3.3 Alex NG AAC Technologies 2018 HK BUY HK$45.7 HK$63.4 39 7,239 1.89 2.58 3.08 19.2 14.2 12.0 Alex NG Coolpad 2369 HK SELL HK$1.31 HK$0.86 -34 726 0.12 0.04 0.10 10.9 32.8 13.1 Alex NG Sunny Optical 2382 HK BUY HK$16.32 HK$14.51 -11 2,309 0.53 0.70 0.88 24.4 18.7 15.0 Alex NG TCL Comm 2618 HK NEUTRAL HK$5.69 HK$6.15 8 899 0.89 0.88 0.92 6.4 6.5 6.2 Alex NG PAX Global 327 HK BUY HK$6.5 HK$12.0 85 923 0.36 0.51 0.60 18.1 12.8 10.8 Alex NG Truly 732 HK NEUTRAL HK$1.68 HK$2.0 19 630 0.38 0.29 0.34 4.4 5.8 4.9 Alex NG Lenovo Group 992 HK BUY HK$6.45 HK$9.2 43 9,243 0.08 0.02 0.11 10.4 41.6 7.6 Alex NG Sky Light 3882 HK BUY HK$1.67 HK$3.36 101 172 0.34 0.37 0.42 4.9 4.5 4.0 Marley Ngan Textile & Garment China Lilang 1234 HK BUY HK$4.83 HK$8.04 66 752 0.46 0.52 0.56 8.3 7.4 7.0 Eugene MAK 361 Degrees 1361 HK BUY HK$2.64 HK$3.61 37 704 0.20 0.25 0.27 10.5 8.5 7.9 Eugene MAK Xtep International 1368 HK BUY HK$3.86 HK$4.88 26 1,085 0.22 0.28 0.31 13.9 11.0 10.1 Eugene MAK ANTA Sports Products 2020 HK BUY HK$19.98 HK$24.44 22 6,446 0.68 0.84 0.95 23.3 19.0 17.0 Eugene MAK Trinity 891 HK NEUTRAL HK$0.99 HK$0.83 -16 223 0.05 0.00 0.08 19.8 N.A. 12.4 Eugene MAK I.T 999 HK NEUTRAL HK$2.06 HK$2.19 6 324 0.24 0.25 0.31 8.6 8.2 6.7 Eugene MAK Hengan Int'l 1044 HK NEUTRAL HK$65.6 HK$75.0 14 10,358 3.20 3.40 3.80 20.5 19.3 17.3 Gloria WANG Food & Beverage Biostime 1112 HK SELL HK$15.74 HK$10.8 -31 1,279 1.34 0.13 0.73 9.3 96.9 17.4 Gloria WANG China Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK NEUTRAL HK$10.84 HK$14.5 34 5,486 1.21 0.63 0.70 7.1 13.8 12.5 Gloria WANG
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Share px Mkt cap EPS P/E Company Ticker Rating Jan. 15 12-month TP % Upside (US$mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E Analyst Jiashili Group 1285 HK BUY HK$3.4 HK$4.6 35 182 0.23 0.26 0.31 14.8 13.1 11.0 Retail Sinomax 1418 HK BUY HK$0.72 HK$1.43 99 163 0.12 0.13 0.14 6.0 5.5 5.1 Eugene MAK Chow Tai Fook 1929 HK NEUTRAL HK$4.35 HK$4.34 -0 5,612 0.55 0.36 0.40 7.9 12.1 10.9 Eugene MAK Cosmo Lady 2298 HK BUY HK$6.5 HK$9.25 42 1,599 0.23 0.32 0.41 22.4 16.3 12.8 Eugene MAK Luk Fook Holdings 590 HK NEUTRAL HK$13.16 HK$19.51 48 1,000 2.74 2.05 2.44 4.8 6.4 5.4 Eugene MAK Haier Electronics 1169 HK NEUTRAL HK$12.82 HK$13.5 5 4,621 0.90 1.03 1.08 11.3 10.0 9.6 Gloria WANG Redstar Macalline 1528 HK BUY HK$8.58 HK$12.7 48 4,011 0.74 0.72 0.89 9.2 9.5 7.8 Gloria WANG Springland International 1700 HK NEUTRAL HK$1.71 HK$2.5 46 544 0.26 0.25 0.26 5.2 5.5 5.3 Gloria WANG Intime Retail Group 1833 HK BUY HK$5.99 HK$14.8 147 1,552 0.36 0.37 0.41 13.2 13.0 11.8 Gloria WANG Gome Electrical 493 HK BUY HK$1.08 HK$1.63 51 2,363 0.08 0.08 0.09 10.7 10.8 9.7 Gloria WANG JD JD US BUY US$27.0 US$47.3 75 36,936 0.27 -0.13 0.70 100.0 N.A. 275.7 Gloria WANG Alternative Energy Datang Renewable Power 1798 HK SELL HK$0.78 HK$0.83 6 252 0.00 0.02 0.04 N.A. 31.2 15.7 Nelson LEE Xinjiang Goldwind 2208 HK BUY HK$11.44 HK$17.6 54 738 0.66 0.82 1.00 13.8 11.2 9.2 Nelson LEE GCL-Poly Energy 3800 HK BUY HK$1.09 HK$1.94 78 2,177 0.13 0.14 0.20 8.4 7.8 5.5 Nelson LEE China Longyuan Power 916 HK BUY HK$4.86 HK$6.73 38 2,094 0.32 0.45 0.56 12.0 8.6 7.0 Nelson LEE Huaneng Renewables 958 HK BUY HK$1.8 HK$2.4 33 2,097 0.12 0.17 0.20 11.9 8.5 7.3 Nelson LEE Xinyi Solar 968 HK BUY HK$2.9 HK$4.2 45 246 0.08 0.17 0.27 36.3 17.1 10.7 Nelson LEE Port & Shipping SITC 1308 HK BUY HK$3.82 HK$4.85 27 1,287 0.05 0.06 0.06 9.9 8.2 8.2 Vivien CHAN China Merchants Hldg 144 HK BUY HK$21.4 HK$32.3 51 7,078 1.59 1.73 1.85 13.5 12.4 11.6 Vivien CHAN Orient Overseas 316 HK BUY HK$32.5 HK$55.5 71 2,624 0.43 0.65 0.71 9.8 6.5 5.9 Vivien CHAN Machinery & Equipment Zoomlion Heavy 1157 HK NEUTRAL HK$2.41 HK$3.22 34 445 0.08 -0.01 0.02 23.9 N.A. 97.3 Yiding JIAO Lonking 3339 HK NEUTRAL HK$1.04 HK$1.23 18 574 0.10 0.05 0.06 8.3 16.7 14.0 Yiding JIAO CRSC 3969 HK BUY HK$3.83 HK$7.87 105 4,069 0.29 0.31 0.40 13.2 12.4 9.6 Yiding JIAO Sany Heavy 631 HK SELL HK$1.52 HK$1.36 -11 596 0.06 0.12 0.12 20.1 10.1 10.2 Yiding JIAO Pharmaceutical & Healthcare 3SBio 1530 HK BUY HK$10.04 HK$12.0 20 3,257 0.15 0.25 0.34 66.9 40.2 29.5 Milo LIU TRAD CHI MED 570 HK BUY HK$4.37 HK$7.6 74 2,416 0.16 0.18 0.31 21.7 19.4 11.4 Milo LIU China Medical System 867 HK BUY HK$9.38 HK$13.1 40 3,010 0.34 0.41 0.51 21.9 18.3 14.9 Milo LIU
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Share px Mkt cap EPS P/E Company Ticker Rating Jan. 15 12-month TP % Upside (US$mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E Analyst China Biologic Products CBPO US BUY US$125.83 US$140.0 11 3,231,944 2.89 3.66 4.61 43.5 34.4 27.3 Milo LIU Bank ABC 1288 HK BUY HK$2.81 HK$4.76 69 117,735 0.55 0.55 0.56 4.1 4.1 4.1 Donger WANG ICBC 1398 HK BUY HK$4.05 HK$7.51 85 186,204 0.78 0.78 0.80 4.1 4.2 4.1 Donger WANG Minsheng 1988 HK SELL HK$6.76 HK$6.33 -6 31,817 1.31 1.20 1.27 4.1 4.5 4.3 Donger WANG BOCOM 3328 HK BUY HK$4.76 HK$8.8 85 45,600 0.89 0.89 0.89 4.2 4.3 4.3 Donger WANG CQRCB 3618 HK BUY HK$3.77 HK$6.11 62 4,523 0.73 0.80 0.89 4.1 3.8 3.4 Donger WANG BOC 3988 HK BUY HK$3.04 HK$5.98 97 114,634 0.61 0.59 0.60 4.0 4.1 4.1 Donger WANG China Construction Bank 939 HK BUY HK$4.73 HK$8.47 79 152,549 0.91 0.92 0.93 4.1 4.1 4.1 Donger WANG CITIC Bank 998 HK SELL HK$4.42 HK$4.08 -8 26,677 0.87 0.86 0.85 4.0 4.1 4.2 Donger WANG Insurance AIA 1299 HK BUY HK$42.45 HK$60.91 43 65,954 0.29 0.34 0.39 18.9 16.1 14.0 李文兵 NCI 1336 HK BUY HK$26.95 HK$49.88 85 10,847 2.05 3.35 4.31 10.4 6.4 5.1 李文兵 Ping An insurance group 2318 HK BUY HK$35.1 HK$63.47 81 82,770 4.33 3.08 3.53 6.4 9.1 8.0 李文兵 PICC P&C 2328 HK NEUTRAL HK$13.24 HK$19.94 51 25,326 1.02 1.40 1.73 10.3 7.6 6.2 李文兵 CPIC 2601 HK BUY HK$26.25 HK$49.2 87 30,693 1.17 1.94 2.18 17.8 10.8 9.7 李文兵 China Life 2628 HK NEUTRAL HK$20.35 HK$32.57 60 74,200 1.14 1.56 1.67 14.2 10.4 9.8 李文兵 CHINA TAIPING 966 HK BUY HK$18.1 HK$31.93 76 8,392 1.30 2.31 2.38 13.9 7.8 7.6 李文兵 Environmental Protection Technovator 1206 HK BUY HK$3.69 HK$8.2 122 307 0.04 0.16 0.06 11.9 3.0 7.9 Vivien CHAN Industrial Goods TK group 2283 HK BUY HK$2.11 HK$2.81 33 225 0.19 0.23 0.30 11.1 9.2 7.0 Marley Ngan Wasion Group 3393 HK BUY HK$6.9 HK$12.36 79 914 0.51 0.59 0.71 10.7 9.4 7.9 Vivien CHAN Construction China Rail Cons 1186 HK NEUTRAL HK$7.59 HK$12.56 65 12,080 0.89 0.94 1.03 6.8 6.5 6.0 Yiding JIAO CCCC 1800 HK NEUTRAL HK$6.27 HK$10.98 75 13,083 0.85 0.91 0.99 5.9 5.5 5.1 Yiding JIAO CMEC 1829 HK BUY HK$5.25 HK$8.13 55 615 0.51 0.49 0.67 8.2 8.6 6.3 Yiding JIAO China State Construction 3311 HK BUY HK$12.02 HK$18.62 55 6,035 0.88 1.09 1.41 13.7 11.0 8.5 Yiding JIAO Gaming,Lodging & Leisure Wynn Macau 1128 HK NEUTRAL HK$7.24 HK$8.7 20 4,845 1.24 0.41 0.41 5.8 17.7 17.7 Angela HAN LEE Paradise Ent 1180 HK BUY HK$1.11 HK$2.2 98 151 0.06 -0.01 0.05 18.5 N.A. 22.2 Angela HAN LEE Sands China 1928 HK BUY HK$21.65 HK$28.1 30 22,525 2.45 1.37 1.33 8.8 15.8 16.3 Angela HAN LEE
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Share px Mkt cap EPS P/E Company Ticker Rating Jan. 15 12-month TP % Upside (US$mn) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E Analyst MGM China 2282 HK SELL HK$8.66 HK$7.9 -9 4,245 1.50 0.81 0.52 5.8 10.7 16.7 Angela HAN LEE Galaxy Entertainment 27 HK BUY HK$21.15 HK$29.6 40 11,564 2.44 1.14 1.38 8.7 18.6 15.3 Angela HAN LEE SJM 880 HK SELL HK$4.6 HK$3.7 -20 3,330 1.20 0.57 0.35 3.8 8.1 13.1 Angela HAN LEE Home Inns HMIN US NEUTRAL US$33.62 US$31.5 -6 1,617 1.81 1.34 1.49 18.6 25.1 22.6 Angela HAN LEE China Lodging HTHT US BUY US$25.99 US$32.4 25 1,618 0.88 1.35 1.60 29.5 19.3 16.2 Angela HAN LEE Melco Crown MPEL US BUY US$14.23 US$19.5 37 7,815 1.11 0.24 0.43 12.8 59.3 33.1 Angela HAN LEE
Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK)
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Recently Published Reports
Date published Name of report Analyst
2016-01-15 China Banks Donger WANG, Sean CHENG 2016-01-15 CRSC (3969 HK) Yiding JIAO, WEI Yun 2016-01-15 China Merchants Land (978 HK) John So, Hayden Zhang 2016-01-15 HK Market Strategy Cliff Zhao, Ivy Zhao, Vincent Ji 2016-01-15 China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) Milo Liu, Hayden Zhang 2016-01-14 Wasion Group (3393 HK) Vivien CHAN, Lewis WONG 2016-01-14 China Resources Land (1109 HK) John So, Hayden Zhang 2016-01-13 Auto & Auto Parts Liang Yonghuo 2016-01-13 Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) Eugene MAK 2016-01-12 Sky Light (3882 HK) Marley Ngan, Alex Ng 2016-01-12 HK Market Strategy Cliff Zhao, Ivy Zhao, Vincent Ji 2016-01-11 China State Construction (3311 HK) Yiding JIAO, WEI Yun 2016-01-11 Haier Electronics (1169 HK) Gloria WANG 2016-01-11 Macau Gaming Angela HAN LEE, Ryan YU 2016-01-11 Comments on December US jobs data Lynn SONG, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE 2016-01-11 Greentown China (3900 HK) John So, Hayden Zhang 2016-01-07 Tongda Group (698 HK) Marley Ngan, Alex Ng 2016-01-07 China Lilang (1234 HK) Eugene MAK 2016-01-07 HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly (Vol. 22) Cliff Zhao, Vincent Ji, Ivy Zhao 2016-01-06 Macau Gaming Angela HAN LEE, Ryan YU 2016-01-06 China Overseas Grand Oceans (81 HK) John So, Hayden Zhang 2016-01-06 Macau Gaming Angela HAN LEE, Ryan YU December ISM index showed US manufacturing limping into 2016 2016-01-05 with 6 year low of 48.2 Lynn SONG, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE 2016-01-05 China Harmony Auto (3836 HK) Liang Yonghuo 2016-01-05 China Property Sector John So, Hayden Zhang 2016-01-04 Macau Gaming Angela HAN LEE, Ryan YU 2015-12-29 PetroChina (857 HK) Anna YU 2015-12-28 Red Star Macalline (1528 HK) Gloria WANG 2015-12-24 ANTA Sports Products (2020 HK) Eugene MAK, Lewis WONG 2015-12-23 HANS ENERGY (554 HK) Anna YU, Jinyun Li 2015-12-23 Cowell (1415 HK) Alex Ng, Marley Ngan 2015-12-23 China Hardware Technology 2016 Investment Strategy Alex Ng, Marley Ngan 2015-12-22 China Lodging (HTHT US) Angela HAN LEE, Ryan YU 2015-12-22 NCI (1336 HK) Jerry Li
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Contact
CMS (HK) Equity Research Head of Equity Research Sam LEE [email protected] Deputy Head of Equity Research Cliff ZHAO [email protected] Deputy Head of Equity Research Liangsheng DENG [email protected] Deputy Head of Equity Research David XIE [email protected] Macro Research Chief Strategist Cliff ZHAO [email protected] China Macro Economy David XIE [email protected] Overseas Macro Economy Lynn SONG [email protected] HK Market Strategy Ivy ZHAO [email protected] HK Market Strategy Vincent JI [email protected] Industry Research Alternative Energy Nelson LEE [email protected] Auto & Railway Yonghuo LIANG [email protected] Banking Donger WANG [email protected] Insurance Jerry LI [email protected] Broker Donger WANG [email protected] Telecom & Hardware Technology/Telco Alex NG [email protected] Gaming,Lodging & Leisure Angela HAN LEE [email protected] Healthcare Milo LIU [email protected] Machinery Yiding JIAO [email protected] Construction Yiding JIAO [email protected] Oil & Gas Anna YU [email protected] Property John SO [email protected] Retail Gloria WANG [email protected] Retail Eugene MAK [email protected] Small-mid Cap Vivien CHAN [email protected] Technology, Media & Telecom Jeff HAO [email protected] Technology, Media & Telecom Andrew HUANG [email protected] Food & Beverage Gloria WANG [email protected]
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Investment Ratings Industry Rating Definition OVERWEIGHT Expect sector to outperform the market over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Expect sector to perform in-line with the market over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Expect sector to underperform the market over the next 12 months
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