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Morning Express Hong Kong Equity Research Monday, January 18, 2016 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Morning Express Hong Kong Equity Research Stock Market Indices Close 1-day chg % chg CMS(HK) Research Highlights Hang Seng Index 19520 -296.64 -1.5 Hang Seng Finance Index 27015 -440.11 -1.6 China Merchants Land (978 HK, HK$1.11, BUY, TP HK$1.7) Hang Seng Utilities Index 49146 -134.48 -0.27 Hang Seng Property Index 26466 -517.65 -1.92 Positive on 2016 developments Hang Seng Industrial Index 11167 -161.22 -1.42 HSCEI 8236 -223.35 -2.64 ■ In 2016, we expect CM Land to speed up the cooperation with its parent CSI 300 3118 -102.84 -3.19 with potential project participation in Qianhai and HK Shanghai Composite Index 2900 -106.68 -3.55 TWSE 7762 +19.13 +0.25 ■ After downward earnings revision, we estimate 147% YoY core profit growth in FY16E, thanks to substantial jump in project booking Global Last price chg %chg ■ We lowered TP by 15% to HK$1.7 based on a lowered NAV due to RMB Brent Oil 29.11 -1.77 -5.73 depreciation. We regard current 57% discount to NAV attractive. Maintain COMEX Gold 1088.6 +15.0 +1.4 BUY COMEX Copper 194.85 -2.75 -1.39 LME Aluminum 1472.5 -10.0 -0.67 Revised down earnings due to slow developments LME Copper 4325.5 -90.0 -2.04 BDI 373.0 -10.0 -2.61 From CRIC and Soufun data, we noted that CM Land’s contracted sales and project completion progress were slower than estimated. In view of the slight negative impact from recent RMB depreciation, we revised down Exchange/interest rates Last price chg %chg USD/RMB 6.58 -0.01 -0.09 FY15/16E earnings by 14%/12%. Since most projects of CML will be USD/HKD 7.8 +0.01 +0.17 completed in FY16E, it would result in 85% YoY surge in revenue, boosting EUR/USD 1.09 +0.01 +0.51 the profit by 147% YoY to RMB952mn in FY16E. 1Y RMB NDF 6.92 +0.01 +0.16 Potential new developments in Qianhai and HK 3M Libor 0.62 -0.0 -0.14 3M Shibor 3.01 -0.02 -0.63 10Y US T-Note Yield 2.03 -0.07 -3.33 In 2016, we expect the key catalyst to arise from asset injection from the parent company. Its parent, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone (001979 CH), has completed its restructuring and re-listing in Dec 2015. HSI vs. HSCEI vs. CSI 300 We believe it would speed up CML’s adjustment in landbank portfolio with (%) HSI HSCEI CSI300 the participation in Shenzhen Qianhai property developments. CML is also 72 actively looking for development opportunities in Hong Kong. It is possible 52 for its parent to inject some existing HK assets or landbank into CML in 32 2016 in our view. 12 57% NAV discount, about 1SD below mean -8 We slightly revised down our 1-year forward NAV to HK$2.7/share -28 (Previous: HK$3.1/share) due to slower-than-expected project booking and Jan/15 Mar/15 May/15 Jul/15 Sep/15 Nov/15 negative impact from RMB depreciation. Maintain BUY and revise down TP Source: Bigdata to HK$1.7, based on the same 36% discount (Previous: 36%) to 1-year forward NAV, compared to the current 57% discount. (John SO) Wynn Macau (1128 HK, HK$7.24, NEUTRAL, TP HK$8.7) Preliminary 4Q15; what matters is why “pre”; impact +ve ■ Wynn Macau reported preliminary 4Q15 operational data through its parent, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US). Adj. property EBITDA to range US$156-164mn. Midpoint implies 7% upside from our forecast ■ “Pre” announcement to cheer up market value of both Wynn Resorts and Wynn Macau after a sharp 26% and 20% decline YTD ■ Relieved from consensus earnings cut but concern on margin before Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. China Merchants Securities (CMS) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CMS research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CMS research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1 Monday, January 18, 2016 Wynn Palace’s opening remains. Maintain NEUTRAL EBITDA stabilizing through shift in revenue mix 4Q15 adj. property EBITDA was guided to report 32%-35% YoY decline, - 4% to +1% QoQ change, implying QoQ stabilization after a 6% QoQ decline in 3Q15. Net revenue will fall 28-26% YoY, 4-5% QoQ. Sharper- than-expected fall in VIP GGR (11% below our estimate) was partially offset by strong mass (7% above our estimate). On a QoQ basis, Wynn Macau removed 36 VIP gaming tables and allocated 24 more mass gaming tables. EBITDA margin improvement remained flat QoQ. Sudden “pre” likely to benefit the stock price stabilizing Mgmt took proactive approach by making preliminary result announcement to dilute market concerns over the company’s profitability. The most recent preliminary announcement was made for parent’s 2Q10 results. Positive surprise from result itself is not massive but it will help market stop de- rating the company on potential earnings miss as sharply as in early January, in our view. As a result, we expect the event to impact both Wynn Macau and the sector in a positive way. Earnings still under pressure; maintain NEUTRAL Wynn Macau is trading at 21x FY16E P/E and 12x EV/EBITDA, at a slight premium to Macau gaming peers. Although 4Q15 preannouncement implies slightly better results than our estimates, we are still concerned on Wynn Macau’s near-term outlook because 1) 1Q-2Q16E will be tough for Wynn Macau bearing pre-opening expenses from Wynn Palace’s opening, 2) Wynn Palace is likely to target at high-end gamblers, which are still suffering from unfavourable macro and policy reasons and 3) competition from Cotai peers are intensifying while a number of them offer highly differentiated products. Thus, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating with TP of HK$8.70. (Angela HAN LEE) Macau Gaming 4Q15E preview: calming results with improvement ahead ■ Industry 4Q15E EBITDA will contract 4% QoQ (3Q15: flat QoQ) on weakening Peninsula VIP business and hiking expenses ■ We estimate 28% YoY decline for 4Q15E sector EBITDA on 27% GGR YoY contraction; SJM (880 HK)’s EBITDA (+9% QoQ) to lead sector’s QoQ performance while main dragger to be Melco Crown (-20% QoQ) on increased expenses related to Studio City’s opening ■ We like Melco Crown (fundamentals bottomed but stock oversold) and Galaxy (Galaxy Macau 2 continues ramp-up), while Sands China (1928 HK) offers high yield of 9% QoQ industry EBITDA contraction as expected 4Q15 overall GGR reached MOP54.8bn with 27% YoY decline. 1% QoQ increase in overall GGR showed stabilizing trend in mass market gaming partially offset by another drop in VIP revenue. The revenue shift towards high margin grind mass and ramp-up of Galaxy Macau 2 helped EBITDA but it was dragged by the elevated cost with the opening of Studio City in Late October. We expect 4Q15E industry EBITDA to be down 4% QoQ, following flat QoQ EBITDA trend in 3Q15. To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 2 Monday, January 18, 2016 January GGR trending in line We currently expect Jan GGR to decline 26-27% YoY, -5% QoQ. It differs from 2% QoQ recovery in Jan 2015, because January last year was positively impacted by increased foot traffic soon after President Xi’s visit in Dec 2014. Daily GGR ranged from MOP560mn-600mn early this month, but we and market broadly expect it to decline gradually in late January due to the seasonal weakness with Chinese New Year approaching. Accumulate valuation laggards during result reason The sector currently trades at 18x FY16E P/E and 12x EV/EBITDA. While it is still early to re-rate the sector, we think the recent pullback from volatile stock market provides a buying opportunity for stocks which are 1) valuation laggards and 2) not impacted from RMB weakness in terms of revenue and cost structure. Our top picks are Melco Crown (MPEL US) and Galaxy (27 HK). (Angela HAN LEE) China Banks December financial data showed early signs of improvement in new loan structure although headline readings missed ■ New loans reported at RMB598 bn in December 2015, much lower than the consensus of RMB700 bn, mainly dragged by a net decrease of RMB220 bn in interbank new loans ■ Total social financing (TSF) came in at RMB1.82 trn in December, topping Bloomberg consensus of RMB1.15 trn, partially driven by a recovery in shadow banking credit and stronger direct financing ■ Total deposits edged down RMB37 bn in December on a large outflow of RMB1.46 trn from fiscal deposits; M2 growth slowed to 13.3% YoY, ahead of the full-year target of 12.0% for 2015 Total new loans missed while its structure improved New loans dropped 15.7% MoM to RMB598 bn in December, lower than consensus of RMB700 bn, mainly dragged by a decline of RMB220 bn in interbank new loans. Despite the lower-than-expected headline readings, new loans to real economy remained stable at RMB833 bn in December vs RMB887 bn in November. Investment interest from enterprises showed preliminary sign of improvement as evidenced by a surge in medium & long-term new loans, which up 163.0% MoM to RMB346 bn in December, accounting for 57.9% of total new loans in December compared to 18.6% in November.
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