Diehards and Democracy Elites, Inequality and Institutions in African Elections

Briefing Note 1201 April 2012 Diehards and democracy Elites, inequality and institutions in African elections Multi-party elections are a salient feature of Africa’s rapidly evolving political landscape. International support for elections is prioritised above all other strategies for consolidating democracy. The legacies of political reform are diverse, and variable. Technology, natural resource endowments, rising inequality, volatile food and fuel costs, and entrenched elites are influencing elections in ways few anticipated. These notes examine some essential traits of recent African elections, and consider their implications for future contests. • Elections viewed as democratic benchmark, hegemonies adapt • Political competition invigorated, old elites recycled • Fewer civil wars and coups, more electoral violence • Economic growth attended by inadequate job creation and popular discontent • Electoral management improved, electoral disputes common • Extensions to presidential term limits rebuffed, constitutions remain vulnerable Democratic Africa Elections in 2012 Africa is undergoing rapid political transition. Governments and politicians are confronted by voluble demands for greater transparency and accountability. The proliferation of mobile telecommunications has intensified scrutiny. Hegemonies – old and new – have adapted to fundamental changes in external relations and political rivalry. African leaders confronted the uncertainties of the post-Cold War era with pragmatism and resilience. In the late 1980s and 1990s, economic liberalisation imposed by the World Presidential, Bank and IMF coincided with dwindling external patronage. national assembly, As governments looked to internal constituencies to local underscore their legitimacy, political reform ensued. In 2012, Presidential, only four countries in Africa lack multi-party constitutions: national assembly National assembly, Eritrea, Swaziland, Libya and Somalia. local National assembly Multi-party elections are widely regarded as the benchmark for appraising the democratic credentials of African Local governments. In 1989, three African countries were labelled electoral democracies. By 2011, the number had risen to 181 and 15 countries held presidential, legislative and/or local Voting and tactics government elections during the year. Twenty-three countries Substantial external funding for elections has recast political have polls scheduled for 2012.2 Popular participation in competition in Africa. Many multi-party elections involve the elections is usually enthusiastic. In South Africa, voter turnout recycling of protagonists. In Nigeria, former military ruler has exceeded 76% in all parliamentary contests since 1994.3 Major General Muhammadu Buhari ran for the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Four potential candidates for the 2013 International donors intent on improving “governance” in presidential elections in Kenya – Raila Odinga, Uhuru Africa are closely involved in the funding, planning and Kenyatta, William Ruto, and Kalonzo Musyoka – were monitoring of elections. Polls are costly: the 2011 elections in stalwarts of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) which the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) cost over US$700m, ruled unopposed for 39 years after independence. In most 4 of which 37% was donor-funded. Support is underpinned by countries, new faces remain a rarity among those competing a belief that democracy will improve the accountability of for the highest offices. governments – and development. But multi-party elections have produced diverse political outcomes and myriad Political liberalisation has motivated opposition. Since 1991, unintended consequences, not all of which are progressive. 31 ruling parties or heads of state have been voted from www.africaresearchinstitute.org Registered charity 1118470 office. In Ghana, the opposition has twice secured power Electoral violence is orchestrated by political elites to peacefully since the first multi-party elections in 1992. But intimidate voters. “Youth wings” or party “task forces” are incumbent presidents win most African polls, prevailing over prominent exponents. In Zimbabwe, victory for the stifled or fragmented opposition. Twenty candidates opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in the attempted – unsuccessfully – to end the 26-year rule of 2008 parliamentary election triggered an immediate and President Paul Biya in Cameroon’s 2008 presidential election. brutal response from President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). A Ethnicity is commonly used to mobilise electoral support, campaign of beatings and targeted assassinations of MDC intensifying and reinforcing political divisions. Nationwide officials and supporters forced party leader, Morgan support for the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) in the 2002 Tsvangirai, to withdraw from the presidential run-off vote. elections, which marked the end of a decade-long civil war, was short-lived. In 2007, the SLPP was predominantly Elections can exacerbate existing tensions. A recurrence of supported by the Mende south and east of the country, factional clashes in northern Nigeria followed Goodluck while the Temne and Limba north and Krio community in Jonathan’s victory in the 2011 presidential election. More the west rallied behind the All People’s Congress (APC). than 800 people were killed in the fighting. Perceived Ethnic or sectarian electoral loyalties more often reflect the consolidation of power by politicians from the dispensing and pursuit of patronage benefits than predominantly Christian south, and enduring economic entrenched enmity. disparity between northern and southern states, fuelled the unrest. Clashes in Kenya’s Rift Valley following the 2007 Vote-buying is common, and effective. Cash – or favours – elections reflected grievances among Kalenjin and Maasai for votes constitutes a more immediate and tangible reward over traditional lands allocated to Kikuyu in the 1970s by than promises to deliver public goods or reform policy. In President Jomo Kenyatta. Zambia, opposition leader Michael Sata resourcefully adopted “Don’t Kubeba” – “Don’t Tell” – as his campaign The compulsion to retain public office – and susceptibility slogan for the 2011 presidential election, encouraging to resort to violence – is most pronounced in countries people to accept “gifts” from rival Movement for Multi-party where state resources are the principal, or most easily Democracy politicians but not let that influence how they accessible, repository of economic opportunity. Where would vote. Sata won the presidency, and his Patriotic Front elections are “winner takes all” contests, violence is a cheap secured a majority in parliament. and effective electoral device. The prevalence of electoral violence is a clear signal of the possibility of more “The problem of Africa in general and Uganda widespread and protracted strife. in particular is not the people but the leaders who want to overstay in power” Growth, youth and protest – Yoweri Museveni, President of Uganda, 19865 Democratic reforms have coincided with declarations of an economic renaissance in Africa, prompted by growth Resounding victories at polls with voter turnouts above 90% averaging 6% in the 2000s.8 Continental summaries and are usually associated with countries governed by former projections mask significant variations. Ghana’s GDP grew liberation movements. President Paul Kagame polled 93% by 13.5% in 2011. In neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, GDP of Rwanda’s 2010 presidential vote. The Ethiopian People's contracted by 5.8%.9 Democratic reforms and economic Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) led by Prime growth have raised expectations among African electorates. Minister Meles Zenawi won all but two of the 547 The economic – and democratic – potential of an emerging parliamentary seats in 2010. In Rwanda and Ethiopia, middle class in Africa is widely extolled. But per capita national elections have become formalities. The need for income in sub-Saharan Africa was lower in 2005 than in national reconstruction and accelerated development is 1975. Inequality is rising and poverty levels remain cited as justification for consensus politics and the restriction stubbornly high. In Sierra Leone, while GDP growth of inter-party competition. averaged 5% a year in 2007-11, the purchasing power of low-income earners halved.10 No government in Violence sub-Saharan Africa has yet created the conditions for Accession to power through elections is the norm in Africa. sustainable and transformative agricultural or industrial In the 1960s and 1970s, three-quarters of African leaders development. were forced from office by coup d’état or assassinated.6 In the 2000s, there were eight military coups on the continent. The Scant progress was recorded in raising the quantity – or number of civil wars halved between 1992 and the quality – of formal sector employment in Africa during the mid-2000s. While elections have generally been more 2000s, despite democratic reforms. In South Africa, which peaceable mechanisms for contesting power, politically boasts the continent’s largest and most diversified economy, motivated violence occurred in 60% of African elections in 624,000 jobs were created during the 2000s. In 1997-98, 1990-2008.7 1.8m jobs were created in a single year. In 2012, a quarter of www.africaresearchinstitute.org South Africa’s labour force – and more than half of 15-24 year the chairman of the National Electoral Commission was olds –

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