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New Study Links African Conflict to Lack of Term Limits

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New Study Links African Conflict to Lack of Term Limits US Press VOA News on COVID-19 % Search ' Lang ( Live TV ) Live Radio & News Freedom Iran Pandemic " Africa ! New Study Links African Conflict to Lack of # Term Limits By Salem Solomon $ May 03, 2018 11:29 AM TIGRAY CONFLICT Ethiopian Refugee Crisis CHILD MARRIAGE The Worth of a Girl SOUTH SUDAN South Sudan in Focus MUSIC TIME IN AFRICA ARCHIVE A Journey from Chadian President Idriss Deby attends a meeting with EU and African leaders to discuss how to ease the European Shortwave to Union's migrant crisis, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on Aug. 28, 2017. Digital This week, Chad’s parliament voted to introduce a new constitution that will allow two more terms for President Idriss Deby, who has led the country since 1990. On May 17, Burundians will vote on a constitutional amendment that would enable President Pierre Nkurunziza, president since 2005, to stay in office an additional 16 years. And in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a worsening humanitarian crisis unfolds while President Joseph Kabila refuses to step down, despite reaching the end of his mandated time in office nearly 18 months ago. The Dragon's Reach - China's Economic Power Play Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Ka FILE - Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Kabila holds a news conference at the State House in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, Jan. 26, 2018. An analysis by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) earlier this year found that less than 40 percent of countries have enforced constitutional term limits, and leaders in just 15 countries have stepped down after two terms. An author of that study says the consequences can be severe. Joseph Siegle is the director of research at ACSS and worked on the report. He told VOA, “The lack of term limits has created these systems where populations cannot change their leaders through constitutional and established political means.” “It leaves fewer options of using the political process to make those changes and leads to justification for violent alternative measures to be taken,” he added. The connection between term limits and conflict reflects the source of political violence in Africa. “Most of the conflicts in Africa are the result of political crises,” Siegle said. Those include conflicts in the DRC, where Kabila has refused to organize new elections, and in South Sudan, where President Salva Kiir has clung to power in the face of a violent uprising. Emmerson Mnangagwa, center, and his wife Auxillia, FILE - Emmerson Mnangagwa, center, and his wife, Auxillia, right, arrive at the presidential inauguration ceremony in Harare, Zimbabwe, Nov. 24, 2017. Africa has seen a succession of historic transfers of power in recent months, including handovers in Angola, Gambia and Zimbabwe. But none of those countries has had leaders step down at the end of a mandated term. In Angola, president Jose Eduardo Santos had been in power 38 years; in Zimbabwe, president Robert Mugabe had ruled for 37. Two of those men’s contemporaries remain in office: Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea, currently in his 39th year as president, and Paul Biya of Cameroon, in power 35 years. FILE - Cameroon's President Paul Biya attends a se FILE - Cameroon's President Paul Biya attends a session of the One Planet Summit on Dec. 12, 2017, at La Seine Musicale venue on l'ile Seguin in Boulogne-Billancourt, west of Paris. Third democratic wave In the wake of the Cold War, in the 1990s, a global democratic reform movement swept through Africa, Siegle said, leading to the dismantling of the one-party states that were previously enshrined in constitutions and the formation of opposition groups with legal backing. Over time, new systems of governance resulted in elections and the emergence of term limits. Most African leaders who stepped down at the end of their terms did so in the early 2000s. Tanzania was at the forefront of political reforms. Ali Hassan Mwinyi, the country’s second president, stepped down in 1995, after 10 years in power. He was the first African president to fulfill two terms and step down. “There was a legacy of the rule of law in Tanzania that you didn’t see in some of the other countries,” Siegle said. Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere, paved the way for Mwinyi’s two- term presidency, according to Siegle. Although Nyerere led for more than 20 years, he also oversaw the transition to a multi-party state. “Nelson Mandela, I think, we could put in that same category. He isn’t on our list because he didn’t actually serve two terms.” Mandela stepped down in 1999, after serving one term. “Once Mandela set the precedent, nobody else was going to stay on” past their mandates, Siegle said. Press freedoms In countries that observe term limits, press freedoms are much greater, based on 2018 rankings by Reporters Without Borders. Countries with term limits have an average press freedom index of 28. For countries without term limits, with leaders who have not reached their limits, or with limits that have been modified or removed, the average index is 45. Higher scores are worse on RSF’s scale, with the worst-possible score being 100. Stability Siegle warned against equating consistent leadership with stability. Indefinite rule, he said, leads to conflict, economic problems and development issues more often than not. “It’s a misnomer that autocracy leads to stability,” he said. Governmental and societal institutions become weaker, he added, eroding the checks and balances necessary for a robust political system. Looking ahead, Siegle foresees that all African nations will have the ability to institute term limits, and all leaders will face increasing pressure to do so. Some pressure to step down is even coming from former leaders. Hailemariam Desalegn, the former prime minister of Ethiopia, called upon South Sudan’s Salva Kiir to step down, characterizing the conflict in South Sudan as a failure of leadership. “Immediately after my resignation, I asked them, please would you resign because you failed to resolve this problem in South Sudan,” he said in response to a question from Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-British billionaire businessman who hosted a forum in Kigali, Rwanda, last month. Ibrahim’s foundation awards a one-time $5 million payment, and a $200,000 annual payout for life, to African heads of state who uphold the promise to transfer power peacefully. “Leaders should come to their senses, to their mind, and they should somehow leave so that they can give to the new leadership, new blood leadership, who can take the country to the next level,” Desalegn added. RELATED STORIES Africa 8 in 10 Congolese Disapprove of President Kabila, Poll Shows Eight in 10 Congolese have an unfavorable opinion of President Joseph Kabila — but nearly seven in 10 don't think the December vote to replace him will be fair, according to a national poll published on Friday.The survey, conducted last month by the Congo Research Group at New York University and Congolese polling firm BERCI, gives a rare glimpse into the national mood as Congolese wait to see if Kabila finally steps down after 17 years in power.Elections in… Africa Chad Votes for New Constitution Giving President More Power Chad's parliament has voted in support of a new constitution that would abolish the prime minister and allow the longtime president to serve two more terms. Lawyer Senoussi Ali Abdoulaye tells Chadian National Radio the vote means more power will be concentrated in the hands of President Idriss Deby, who has been in office since 1990. Opposition members and civil society groups demonstrated against the new constitution, which was approved in a 132… Africa Botswana President Leaves Office on Time, But With Mixed Reviews Botswana’s president has drawn attention recently for urging long-time African leaders to loosen their grip on power: first, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, then Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo.Now, it’s his turn. President Ian Khama steps down Saturday to make way for his vice president, exactly a decade - to the day - after he became president of the diamond-rich Southern African nation. Current Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi will take his… By Anita Powell Thu, 03/29/2018 - 10:24 AM Africa Congo Presidential Hopeful Rejects Any Deal With Kabila Congolese opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi rejected suggestions that he might make a deal with President Joseph Kabila, at a rally which passed off peacefully Tuesday. Tshisekedi is one of two main figures expected to seek to run in a delayed election scheduled for December. Exiled businessman Moise Katumbi is the other. Tshisekedi dismissed speculation he might accept the post of prime minister, something Kabila has offered in the past to appease… By Salem Solomon Multimedia Editor, Reporter % ! " # $ ! $ " & ! " Switch to Dark mode Search VOA News % UNITED STATES WORLD NEWS SECTIONS US Politics All About America Africa Europe Arts & Culture Science & Health Immigration Silicon Valley And The Americas Middle East Day In Photos VOA StudentU Technology East Asia Pacific South & Central Asia Economy & Business VOA Connect Extremism Watch Refugees Press Freedom VOICE OF AMERICA About VOA VOA Pronunciation Guide Contact VOA Media Relations Terms Of Use And Privacy Listen On The Radio Notice Satellite Schedule Accessibility Subscribe To Our Get Our Mobile App Newsletters Usage Requests Editorials VOA Around The World.
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