To: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee From: The Mellman Group, Inc. Re: Heitkamp Leads In The North Dakota Senate Race Date: November 21, 2011

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 600 likely voters in North Dakota who were interviewed by telephone November 12-16, 2011. The study uses a registration-based sample of likely voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

Because she is much more highly regarded than Congressman Rick Berg, whose job ratings are overwhelmingly negative, Heidi Heitkamp leads the race to succeed Senator Kent Conrad.

Heitkamp Leads Berg In The Senate Heidi Heitkamp Leads Rick Berg In The Race Senate Race She Enjoys A Substantial Advantage Among Independents While President Obama trails Mitt North Dakota Senate Vote North Dakota Senate Vote Romney by a 14-point margin in North 80% 80% (among independents) Dakota (47% Romney, 33% Obama), former Attorney General Heidi 60% 60% 51% Heitkamp leads Congressman Rick 47% 42% Berg by 5 points in our initial head to 40% 40% head vote (47% Heitkamp, 42% Berg). 30%

Heitkamp is able to overcome an 11- 20% 20% 18% 11% point Republican advantage in party 38% 30% strong strong identification with strong support 0% 0% from independents, among whom Undecided Undecided Heitkamp leads by 21 points (51% Heitkamp, 30% Berg). Heitkamp also The Mellman Group, Inc. (11/11) 1 holds a whopping 38-point lead among self-described moderates (61% Heitkamp, 23% Berg), suggesting that Berg will have difficulty wooing supporters outside of his Tea Party base. Among the 70% of the electorate that knows both candidates, Heitkamp leads by an even wider 52% to 41% margin.

While North Dakota is deep red presidentially, voters in the Peace Garden State display a proven ability to split their tickets. For example, in 2000, when Al Gore was losing the state by 28 points, Senator Kent Conrad won by 23 points. Indeed, for the 24 years preceding 2011, all three members of the Congressional delegation were Democrats.

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The Mellman Group November 2011 Page 2 of 2

Heitkamp Is Much Better- Heitkamp Is Highly Regarded, While Berg Is Not Liked Than Berg, Especially Among Independents

100% Favorability 100% Job Performance Heitkamp’s advantage is built on the fact that she is a very 80% 80% popular figure while Rick Berg is widely disliked and his 60% 60% 56% 54% 52% performance in office is broadly 42% derided. Fifty-four percent 40% 39% 40% 28% (54%) view Heitkamp favorably, 25% 28% 20% 20% while only 25% express an unfavorable view, a ratio of fav unfav fav unfav pos neg pos neg 0% 0% more than two to one. By contrast, attitudes toward Berg are decidedly mixed, with The Mellman Group, Inc. (11/11) 2 nearly as many voters viewing him unfavorably (39%) as see him favorably (42%). Put differently, Heitkamp’s favorables are 12 points higher than Berg’s, while her unfavorables are 14 points lower. The disparity between the two candidates is even more pronounced among independents. While Heitkamp is net favorable among independents by a 43-point margin (59% favorable, 16% unfavorable), Berg is actually viewed unfavorably by a plurality of these swing voters (34% favorable, 41% unfavorable).

Berg’s problems are compounded by the poor reviews he receives from constituents for his performance in office. Just 28% of North Dakotans offer positive evaluations of Berg’s performance, while twice as many (56%) render negative judgments. Berg’s job performance ratings are especially weak among independents, of whom fewer than one in five give him a positive rating (17% positive, 62% negative). Conversely, voters offer strongly positive views of Heitkamp’s tenure as Attorney General (52% positive, 28% negative), with independents giving her particularly high marks (56% positive, 26% negative).

Beneath the surface is evidence of the reasons behind North Dakotans’ hostility to Berg. By a 46% to 26% margin they say he is too much of a politician, while only 34% say he represents their point of view on the issues or shares their values. While North Dakotans divide evenly on whether Berg cares about people like them, they believe Heitkamp does care about them by a 43-point margin.

With Heitkamp already ahead in the horserace and so much more highly regarded than Berg, she is in a very strong position to win this contest.