Donnelly Eyes Jobs, Campaign Finance Senator Elect Says New Albany Debate Turned the Tide by BRIAN A
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V18, N15 Thursday, Nov. 8, 2012 Donnelly eyes jobs, campaign finance Senator elect says New Albany debate turned the tide By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – About 12 hours after Democrat Joe Donnelly won an improbable U.S. Senate victory, I conducted a telephone interview with the congressman from Granger. Donnelly began the 2012 election cycle looking at new 2nd CD maps that most observers believed would be tough for a Democrat to run in. Donnelly had gutted out a 2,500-vote victory over Republican Jackie Walorski in 2010. He had originally lined up against U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar, but Democratic Party polling in late 2010 revealed that Lugar’s Republican senator. reelect chances among Republicans were abysmally low. While most national observers believed the Sen- So Donnelly entered the Senate race, Indiana Democratic ate seat would remain in the GOP column even with Lugar Chairman Dan Parker and other party leaders cleared the out of the picture – perceiving Indiana to be a dogmatically primary field, then sat and watched the GOP fratricide with Treasurer Richard Mourdock taking out the legendary Continued on page 4 Rape, change and an election By CHRISTINE MATTHEWS WASHINGTON – “It was what God intended.” ‘‘The election season is over. Now Social media was not kind to Republican U.S. Senate candidate a season of service begins.” Richard Mourdock on Election Night. - Gov.-Elect Mike Pence Countless tweets and posts saying that Mourdock’s loss was “what God intended” (and many more unquot- able things) represented the visceral reaction to his comments in the final moments of the first U.S. Senate HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 8, 2012 www.HoweyPolitics.com Howey Politics Indiana is a non-partisan newsletter based in Indianapolis and Nashville, Ind. It was founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. It is published by debate that voters in our WWWHowey Media, LLC interrupted last poll said whatever that Mour- momentum dock was Brian A. Howey, Publisher and mes- extreme Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington sage he had versus 5 Jack E. Howey, editor in the final percent weeks. It seemed for many, a more who said the same of Donnelly. By urgent question than who would win a10-point margin, voters expressed Subscriptions the presidency was whether “the two more concern about Mourdock’s rigid $350 annually HPI Weekly GOP rape guys” (Akin and Mourdock) partisanship than Donnelly voting the $550 annually HPI Weekly and would win. Democratic party line. HPI Daily Wire. If you are one of the GOP In the final Howey/DePauw poll, nearly half (49%) of voters had 'Call Adrian France rape guys, how could you possibly win an election? Early in the Bellwether an unfavorable impression of Mour- 812.455.4070 or email barometer social media monitoring dock. Most (87%) had heard his [email protected] and well before the debate, a lot of rape remark and four in 10 said it the news coverage and buzz was that made them less likely to vote for him. Contact HPI Todd Akin and Mourdock were simi- Things were looking grim. larly positioned Tea Party candidates Whether it was spin or true Howey Politics Indiana who might cost the GOP safe Sen- belief, the Mourdock campaign insisted www.howeypolitics.com ate seats. The Todd Akin connection their polling had Mourdock up over [email protected] gradually dissipated as the campaign Donnelly (+2 ) and was quite intent got under way and themes like “my on proving other polls wrong. 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 way or the highway,” the auto bailout, Our last Howey/DePauw poll and the constitutionality of Social Se- overshot the Donnelly margin, which I 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 curity were more prevalent. Mourdock knew, but was very clear that Don- 'Washington: 703.248.0909 was also starting to get traction link- nelly would win the U.S. Senate race. 'Business Office:812.455.4070 ing Donnelly to Obama, Harry Reid, None of us – Fred Yang, Brian Howey and Obamacare – all of which were or myself – thought it would end up © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. unpopular in the state. a double digit win for Donnelly, but It would have been a close thought it looked like the mid to high All rights reserved. Photocopy- election (leaning Donnelly in my opin- single digits. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- ion), even if Mourdock had not made A thesis about who would turn ing or reproducing in any form, his debate comments, because he was out or, possibly, a bad polling practice whole or part, is a violation of already suffering from the impression had the electorate pegged at 56% federal law without permission that he was not mainstream, that his over the age of 55 in the Mourdock views were extreme, and he wanted polling. All the Republican candidates from the publisher. v to inflict them on others. One-third of had big margins among seniors and, HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 8, 2012 in fact, they were the only age group that Mourdock won. On our final poll, Mourdock was getting 70% of the Our final poll had a more accurate composition by age with GOP vote – a losing proposition in a final survey. According 41% over 55. Presidential elections are younger than off- to the exit poll, he ended up with 80%, while Pence had year elections so 2012 would be closer to 2008 than 2010. 87% and Romney 93%. Romney won independents 52%- We also interviewed 27% of voters on cell phones 41%, as did Pence (barely) 46%-44, while Donnelly won and the increase in cell phones had an impact on the data, them 49%-40%. I think making our independents a little too Democratic Talk about a bellwether predictor of the Indiana re- leaning in our final poll. In July, when the Wall Street sults: Unfortunately for Mourdock it was his home county Journal/NBC poll bumped their cell phone composition up of Vanderburgh which he lost by 46%-50% while Romney to 30% from 25% and their data showed a bigger lead for won (54%-44%) and Pence won (51%-46%). Obama and a +11 Democratic party advantage, there was an outcry in Republican circles. Republican pollster Bill Mc- Putting on the Ritz Inturff thought it might be a bit too Democratic, although In the superintendent of public instruction race, their polling, in general, was quite accurate. we found incumbent Tony Bennett in a very tight race with McInturff said and I completely co-sign this: “A Glenda Ritz. He was up only 40%-36% with one in four little humility these days goes a long way, considering how undecided. What concerned and puzzled me was that Ben- complex and difficult this job is becoming.” nett had less than 70% of the GOP vote, which was what Every time I do a poll, I know there is a margin of Mourdock was polling and not a recipe for success. I was error and, of course, that it might fall outside of that too. hopeful for him because our 2008 polling also showed a But, nearly always, we get much more tight race and a high undecided. right than we get wrong. Women – more likely the mom/ For example, in the presidential teacher grassroots network I strongly race there were no surprises. suspect – were the reason Bennett lost. Our final Howey/DePauw poll His Democratic opponent, Glenda Ritz, had Romney up by 9 and he won by led 39%-35% among women in our last 10. According to exit polls, he won poll and by a very large 47%-30% margin both men (+17) and women (+5) and among college educated women. Ben- results show he averaged in the mid to nett led men by 46%-33%, but there were high 60% range in the doughnut coun- more undecided women (27%) than men ties. (21%). Mourdock underperformed Usually a statewide office like this Romney in the doughnut counties by benefits from the strength of the Republi- 10-13%. In our final Howey/ DePauw can at the top of the ticket. Bennett was poll, Romney was polling 57% in the getting just two-thirds of Romney’s voters doughnuts and Mourdock polled 10 in our last poll, just a little worse than points lower – 48%. Democrat Glenda Ritz celebrates her Mourdock. But, as we know, there was While Romney narrowly won upset of Supt. Tony Bennett Tuesday. a lot of ticket-splitting in the U.S. Senate women (+5), Mourdock lost them by race and so the benefit from the top of the 10 points, a gap which closed from our ticket was mitigated. final poll which had Mourdock losing women more signifi- We didn’t ask any question beyond the ballot in cantly. Our final poll had Mourdock virtually tied among this race, so our ability to demonstrate with data exactly men – a result that remained on Election Day. why Bennett lost is limited. I think, anecdotally, that when What was really notable is that in our September you make teachers mad, even if the reforms benefit stu- poll, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence was dents, you get in hot water. leading women 46%-33% and he basically never improved When former Washington, D.C., mayor Adrian Fen- upon that. In our October poll he was tied with John ty lost his reelection bid, it was widely seen as a repudia- Gregg among women at 42%, although I wasn’t expect- tion of his hard-charging, reform-enacting school chancellor ing him to lose women by the 47%-52% he did and I think Michelle Rhee.