MEMO
DATE: 4/27/18
MIDTERM OUTLOOK
If history is any indication, Republicans are headed for a tough midterm election. President George W. Bush lost 36 seats in his second midterm election, and President Obama saw two wave elections (2010 and 2014) that gave Republicans more seats than they’ve held since the Great Depression. It’s normal that sitting presidents lose many seats in midterm elections.
Democrats only need to win 24 seats to flip the House. Democratic voters continue to express significantly more interest in the upcoming midterms than their Republican counterparts, and Democratic candidates have significantly outperformed in each of the eight special elections since President Trump took office. These signs of an enthusiasm gap are compounded by the retirements of 46 House Republicans. In the most recent Cook Political Report, 46 Republican-held Congressional districts are vulnerable, while only five Democratic seats are considered in jeopardy. California and Pennsylvania alone account for nearly half of the seats needed for the Democrats to secure a majority in the chamber.
Republicans can take some comfort in the fact that they have cut the Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot in half since the Democrats’ lead peaked back in December, according to polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics. However, the share of voters who favor a Democratically-controlled Congress is still dangerously high. Fortunately, voters also believe that Republicans do a better job handling the economy, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which is typically the most important issue for voters heading into a midterm. National polls, however, provide an average of the sentiment in rural areas that strongly support Trump and urban centers that despise him. This is why we believe that state-by-state polls provide better insight into voter sentiment.
The biggest bright spot by far for the GOP remains the Senate map. Although Republicans are bracing for tough contests in three additional Trump states (Arizona, Texas and Tennessee), they are defending just one seat in a state Hillary Clinton won (Nevada), while Democrats are fighting to preserve 10 seats in Trump states. Incumbents below 50% on Election Day tend to lose, and early polls show 5-8 Democratic incumbents polling below 50%. Democrats have posted strong fundraising numbers in many of those races, but they will be forced to make some difficult choices on how and where to spend their resources, especially because several Republican candidates are in a position to self-fund and pour millions into their campaigns.
Those difficult politics explain why many of the Senate Democrats running in states Trump won can’t always toe the party line when voting on the Senate Floor. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, for example, backed legislation to repeal a rule that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau imposed on auto dealers, while North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly were quick to announce their support for CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Trump’s pick to be the next secretary of state. Several of these senators hail from states that overwhelmingly approve of the president.
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Source: Cook Report
LEADERSHIP UNCERTAINTY
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced earlier this month his intention not to run for re-election. The timing of the announcement was more surprising than his decision to step down. With Ryan promising to stay through the election, Republicans may have to navigate the remainder of this Congress with a lame-duck speaker that the rank-and-file have very little incentive to follow. Ryan’s decision creates a very difficult dynamic for the rest of his leadership team as they try to pass bills in the face of uncertainty about who will control the House – and their party – next year. Making matters worse, there seems to be an endless stream of negative stories on the underground campaigns to replace Ryan. It is not lost on Republican campaign operatives that a vote for a Speaker to replace Ryan would force Democrats to vote for their candidate, Nancy Pelosi, before the election. This would allow many Republicans to close their campaigns by running ads showing their opponent voting to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker.
STRONG, BIGGER BASES IN EACH PARTY
Barring a major national emergency, Congress isn’t expected to tackle another major piece of legislation before the election. Larger items, like the long-rumored infrastructure package, will likely have to wait until next year, at the earliest. Instead, members, particularly those in tough races, will push more incremental measures that help them at home. Given the expectations that Democrats will make big gains in the fall, party leaders in both chambers will likely punt on must-pass bills until after the election. With November fast approaching, Republican leaders don’t have much appetite to force their members to cast tough votes, and Democrats have every incentive to reject whatever concessions the GOP offers.
In this era of political volatility, one constituency remains surprisingly durable: members from poor districts, including conservative Republicans in more rural seats and those represented by members of the Congressional Black Caucus. They are less likely to face
1101 K Street, NW, Suite 800 | Washington, D.C. 20005 | www.cgcn.com contested races in the fall (only six of the 100 poorest districts are competitive in the 2018 House cycle), and they will almost certainly have more influence in the next congress despite raising far less money per election cycle than the average congressional race. CBC members are in line to assume many committee chairmanships, if Democrats win control of the House, and conservatives from rural districts will hold more sway of the Republican Conference because so many GOP retirements and vulnerable seats are held by more moderate members. The “outsiders” who claim to be the “true” party base are poised to have more influence than ever.
LEGISLATIVE CHECKLIST
These are the items we expect both chambers to focus on before the midterms:
Senate
✓ Nominations – judges remain a priority ✓ Cabinet confirmations ✓ FAA ✓ NDAA ✓ CFIUS – could hitch a ride with NDAA ✓ Opioid legislation ✓ Flood insurance ✓ Veterans Choice ✓ WRDA
House
✓ FAA ✓ Higher Ed Bill ✓ Banking reform ✓ Opioid legislation ✓ CFIUS ✓ Rescissions Package ✓ Veterans CHOICE ✓ Potential Energy Legislation ✓ Flood Insurance ✓ WRDA ✓ NDAA ✓ FY 2019 Approps Bills ✓ Intel Auth ✓ Marketplace Fairness / Mobile Workforce Bill
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