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Senate Committee Leadership 2018 Midterm Election Analysis and Look Ahead Yesterday Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate by two seats and Democrats flipped the House by a slim margin. President Donald Trump dove head first into this year’s midterm election, telling voters he was on the ticket, campaigning prolifically and aggressively, and repeatedly predicting a “red wave.” But with an approval rating of 44 percent, the historical connection between presidential approval ratings and a party’s midterm performance in the House proved itself out. The President’s party lost at least 27 seats in the House with Democrats up in eight still undecided races. Twenty-two House races are too close to call according to Bloomberg and the New York Times. Close races, ballots cast by mail that take longer to count, and varying state electoral procedures mean we may not know who will win in these races for several days or even weeks. In 2016, it took California a month to count its primary votes; Darrell Issa’s win that year was not declared until the Monday after Thanksgiving. That state’s extensive use of mail-in ballots could slow the count again. Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is calling for a recount in his Florida re-election race against Governor Rick Scott, automatically triggered by results within 0.5 percent. We outline below key takeaways, the results, what it means for House and Senate leadership elections, the lame duck session, changes coming to the Trump Administration, and the first 100 days of the 116th Congress. We also include an early look at the 2020 presidential campaign, key dates in the coming months, and a cheat sheet of who takes what committee leadership in the House and Senate. KEY TAKEAWAYS Check on Trump. This election represents a course correction and counterpoint to the wave of voter disaffection with our government that helped sweep President Trump into the White House. President Trump’s well-documented gender gap with women in 2016, perhaps overshadowed by his overperformance with men, was exposed and on full display in congressional races where women tilted Democratic by nearly 20 percent. The long-term consequences of the widening gender gap between the parties is unclear but should concern Republicans. In addition, the election saw purple states become more blue on the coasts (House races in NY, NJ, PA, possibly CA) and solid red in middle America (ND, TN, IN). Year of the Woman, Part Two. Midterm voters sent a record number of women to Congress yesterday. There will be at least 100 women in the 116th Congress, easily surpassing the record 85 female Members of the 114th Congress. This follows the primary season’s record-setting 256 victorious female candidates for Congress. And the numbers do not tell the whole story: Massachusetts will send its first woman of color to Washington, Michigan and Minnesota will send the first Muslim women to Congress, and Kansas and New Mexico will send the first Native American women to Congress. Pennsylvania’s current all-male congressional delegation will include four women in the new Congress, as Democratic women there flipped three Republican-held seats and won an open seat. Different Voices at the Polls. Early voting numbers indicate minority turnout went up in 2018, and that it was higher than usual for a midterm election, although the race-by-race impact of these demographic shifts will not be fully clear until all races are called. Historically, Hispanic voters turn out in lower numbers (27 percent of eligible Hispanics cast a ballot in 2014, as compared to 41 percent of black voters and 46 percent of white voters). But when the dust settles, minorities are likely to make up more than half of the House Democratic Caucus and could lead close to half of all House committees. Trump Solidifies Rural Appeal While Democrats Gain in (Sub)urban Districts. As predicted, House Democrats’ path to victory ran through suburban and urban districts around the country. Democrats picked up seats in Staten Island, Denver, the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, Houston, Oklahoma City, and elsewhere. At the same time, voters in deep red, often rural, areas of Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota responded to the President’s message and boosted the Republican margin in the Senate. Kavanaugh Effect. The fallout from Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s bruising confirmation battle was real, particularly in the Senate. It appears to have played a role in the defeat of Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, and possibly Bill Nelson in Florida. In contrast, the sole Senate Democrat who voted for Kavanaugh – Joe Manchin of West Virginia – won his race. The President and Senate Republicans’ resumption of the drumbeat in the campaign’s final days that Kavanaugh was the victim of a coordinated smear campaign may have motivated Republicans to turn out and expand their Senate majority. Affordable Care Act on the Ballot. After four election cycles of Republicans running against the Affordable Care Act and Democrats playing defense, the tables were turned in 2018. Democrats – even those in red states – made the Affordable Care Act and its protections for individuals with pre-existing conditions a central campaign issue. Republicans struggled to respond. Despite voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act dozens of times and continuing to support legal challenges to the law, many Republican candidates touted their support for maintaining protections for pre-existing conditions. Even still, four incumbent Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee with ACA oversight lost. With Democrats taking the House, the long-term future of the Affordable Care Act is more secure. However, the Administration will continue to use its regulatory authority to roll back key provisions of the law. Rise of the Moderate. Despite media attention on the more liberal incoming members of the Democratic Caucus, victories by moderate Democratic candidates like Sharice Davids in Kansas, Jason Crow in Colorado, Max Rose on Staten Island, Chrissy Houlahan in Pennsylvania, Dean Phillips in Minnesota, and others indicate the New Democrat and Blue Dog Coalitions will have a louder voice in the new House Democratic Caucus than they did in the 115th Congress. House Democratic leadership will seek to thread the needle between these new Members and those in the Caucus eager for a more aggressive approach with the Administration. $5.2 Billion. More and more money is flowing into federal congressional races. Pre-election day estimates pegged total midterm expenditures to top $5.2 billion, a total that would shatter 2016’s previous congressional record of $4.1 billion. This cycle saw a roughly $55 million special election House race (GA-06) and a Senate challenger raise $38 million in a quarter and lose (Beto O’Rourke, 3Q 2018). Nearly $3 billion was spent on TV and radio ads in the 2018 midterms, almost doubling the $1.5 billion spent in 2014. RESULTS House of Representatives Heading into yesterday’s election, Republicans held a 235-to-193 seat advantage over Democrats (with seven vacant seats) but found themselves defending a wide battleground including many races where long-time Republican incumbents opted for retirement rather than running for re- election. Based on numbers by Bloomberg and the New York Times, Democrats seized on the broad map and leveraged the historical midterm trends to net 27 seats. While roughly 22 races remain too close to call as of 8:00 AM ET, Democrats’ majority sits at 220-to-193. While there were several reports of long lines at polling centers, bad weather, power outages, and technical difficulties, this did not stop increased voter turnout, and there are currently no reports of election interference. Several states will see significant changes to their delegations. Seven new Members will join Congress from Pennsylvania, including four women. Texas remains a Republican stronghold, but nine new Members will replace longtime incumbents. Key States • California: In the state with the greatest number of competitive races, seven remain too close to call to safely make predictions. It could be days or weeks until the races are decided as vote by mail and absentee ballots continue to be counted. • Florida: Democrats picked up two additional seats in the state, capitalizing on open seats and the national environment. After FL-27 backed Hillary Clinton by 19 points in 2016, the seat held by retiring Republican Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen went to Democratic former Health and Human Services Secretary and University of Miami president Donna Shalala over Republican former Univision journalist Maria Elvira Salazar. In FL-26, Republican Representative Carlos Curbelo narrowly lost his seat to Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Republican State Representative Ross Spano was able to keep the open FL-15 seat over Democratic attorney Kristen Carlson. • Illinois: Democrats flipped two seats in the state. The high-profile target for Democrats in IL-06, Republican Representative Peter Roskam, fell to Democratic energy executive Sean Casten. Democratic candidate Lauren Underwood narrowly won over incumbent Republican Representative Randy Hultgren in IL-14. Republican Representatives Mike Bost and Rodney Davis were able to fend off close challenges by Democratic candidates Brendan Kelly and Betsy Londrigan in IL-12 and IL-13, respectively. • Iowa: Democrats will hold a three-to-one advantage in the delegation in January after flipping two seats. In IA-01, incumbent Republican Representative Rod Blum lost his seat to Democratic State Representative Abby Finkenauer. Incumbent Republican Representative David Young also narrowly lost his seat to Democratic first-time candidate Cindy Axne in IA-03. Even after waning support from national Republicans and corporate donors, Republican Representative Steve King was still able to secure a win over Democratic challenger J.D.
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