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North Dakota Senate: Heitkamp Hoping for Another Home Run Campaign May 4, 2018 Volume 2, No. 9 By Leah Askarinam

The map of competitive Senate races has opened up to some unexpected places. One year ago, it seemed unlikely that we’d be 2018 Senate Ratings discussing2018 whether Democrats Senate could win a SenateRatings seat in Tennessee or Toss-Up Texas, let alone that the GOP would lose a seat in Alabama. But has been on the map sinceToss-Up the day after the November 2012 Donnelly (D-Ind.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) election,Donnelly when (D-Ind.) squeakedManchin out a(D-W.Va.) victory to keep the seat in Heitkamp (D-N.D.) Nelson (D-Fla.) Democratic hands. Heitkamp (D-N.D.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Heller (R-Nev.) AZ Open (Flake, R) Just a couple years before Heitkamp ran for Senate, North Dakota’s Manchin (D-W.Va.) congressionalHeller (R-Nev.)# delegation was entirely Democratic. Two of those seats fell Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican toTilt Republicans Democratic before Heitkamp tookTilt office—one Republican was ousted by a GOP challenger, and another retired. Republicans were confident that they’d Baldwin (D-Wis.) Baldwin (D-Wis.) take over the third seat in a state where President was Nelson (D-Fla.) Tester (D-Mont.) unpopular. But Heitkamp ran a near-perfect campaign and Democrats Lean Democratic Lean Republican heldTester the (D-Mont.) seat by nine-tenths of a percentage point. Brown (D-Ohio) TN Open (Corker, R) LeanThis Democratictime around, a couple thingsLean remain Republican the same. Heitkamp will again face North Dakota’s GOP House member, and she is still regarded Brown (D-Ohio) Flake (R-Ariz.)# Likely Democratic Likely Republican as an apt and likable politician. But the state appears to have shifted Casey (D-Pa.) Cruz (R-Texas) moreCasey toward (D-Pa.) Republicans since 2012, and Heitkamp now has six years Smith (D-Minn.) ofLikely Senate Democraticvotes to defend. DemocratsLikely may have Republican the national winds at their back, as seen in special elections across the country, but a theoretical Solid Democratic Solid Republican Kaine (D-Va.) wave is more likely to hit Texas suburbs than rural North Dakota. Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) SolidAfter Democratic a long and winding road—whichSolid included Republican personal Cardin (D-Md.) Fischer (R-Neb.) interventionCantwell (D-Wash.) from President —RepublicansBarrasso (R-Wyo.) landed Rep. Carper (D-Del.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) KevinCardin Cramer (D-Md.) to take on Heitkamp. CorkerBut even (R-Tenn.) Republicans confident Feinstein (D-Calif.) Wicker (R-Miss.) about winning in North Dakota know that ousting the Democrat won’t Carper (D-Del.) Cruz (R-Texas) Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) UT Open (Hatch, R) be easy. Feinstein (D-Calif.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Heinrich (D-N.M.) TheGillibrand Lay (D- Of N.Y.) The Land Hatch (R-Utah) Hirono (D-Hawaii) HeinrichLooking (D-N.M.) at the recent election historyStrange of North (R-Ala.) Dakota, Republicans Kaine (D-Va.) have plenty of reasons to be confident. Hirono (D-Hawaii) Wicker (R-Miss.) King (I-Maine) A Republican has won every partisan statewide race since 2008 King (I- Maine) Klobuchar (D-Minn.) except for Heitkamp’s 1-point victory over Rep. in 2012. In Menendez (D-N.J.) 2016,Klobuchar Trump (D-Minn.) carried the state 63-27 percent, while Sen. Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM wonMenendez re-election (D-N.J.) by an even greater margin (79-17 percent). Cramer also Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 51 49 surpassedMurphy (D-Conn.) Trump, winning re-election for the at-large HouseGOP seat byDEM 45 points (69-24 percent). Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle 42 23 Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 52 48 Given the election results from the last eight years—including Gov. Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 5 15 DougStabenow Burgum’s (D-Mich.) 57-point margin in 2016—it’sNot up this hard cycle to believe43 that 23 Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 4 11 upWarren until 2010,(D-Mass.) North Dakota’s congressionalCurrently delegation Solid was7 entirely15 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Democratic.Whitehouse The (D-R.I.) three Democrats—Sen.Competitive , Sen.2 Kent 10 Republicans Continued on page 3 Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans InsideElections.com House Ratings Changes: Democrats’ Open Seat Opportunities By Nathan L. Gonzales

It’s dangerous to extrapolate too much from any single special 7 special election race in a district that is more competitive from Likely election, but the trend is clear across nearly all of the special elections Republican to Tilt Republican. GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned in order over the past year: Democrats are over-performing and Republicans are to take a job with Ohio Business Roundtable. Both parties will select struggling to hold open seats. nominees in primaries on Tuesday, May 8, and that could impact the Democrats’ over-performance hasn’t been limited by geography, dynamic, but the fundamentals of the race appear to be in place. considering Democrats have done better than expected in Montana, In ’s 11th District, GOP Rep. Dave Trott isn’t running for Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, even if they’ve fallen re-election, leaving an open seat that Trump carried with less than 50 short in all but one of those races. percent. Both parties have competitive primaries on Aug. 7 but, once Defeating incumbent Republicans should be more difficult for again, this is the type Democrats, considering Members’ connection and name identification of district Republicans across the entire district and potential for better fundraising compared will likely struggle to an open-seat candidate. But, at a minimum, the special election results to hold in this suggest GOP open seats are more vulnerable now than they were last environment. We’re year. changing our rating President Donald Trump carried New Jersey’s 11th District of the race from Tilt narrowly with just 49 percent, but that might not be Republicans’ Republican to Toss- greatest challenge. The likely Democratic nominee is retired Navy up. helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill, who had nearly $1.7 million in campaign Republicans funds at the end of March. She was already on pace to give GOP D.A. Banks/CQ Roll Call are also at Dino Rossi Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen the re-election race of his life, before he considerable risk announced his retirement. Republican state Assemblyman Jay Webber of losing ’s 39th and 49th Districts, which are open because had $221,000 in the bank, about the same amount as two lower-tier of retirements. But we’re going to wait until after the June 5 primary, Democrats. We’re changing our rating of the race from Toss-up to Tilt to make sure Democrats get a candidate into the top two, before re- Democratic. evaluating the races. Trump also carried New Jersey’s 2nd District narrowly with 51 And Democrats have another opportunity in ’s 8th percent, but Democrats have a credible challenger in state Sen. Jeff Van District, where GOP Rep. isn’t running for re-election and Drew. He already represents some of the most Republican territory won by 3 points. State Sen. Dino Rossi gives Republicans in the congressional district and has the early advantage in campaign a chance to hold the seat, even under adverse conditions. He jumped cash. Van Drew had $456,000 in the bank on March 31 while none of the out to an early fundraising advantage with $1.5 million in the bank at Republicans had more than $83,000. That fundraising discrepancy is part the end of March. There are three well-funded Democrats battling for of the recipe for Democratic success. We’re changing our rating of the the second slot in the general election and need to finish in the top two race from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. in the Aug. 7 primary. We’ll keep our Toss-up rating for now while the Trump carried Ohio’s 12th District by more than 10 points, but Democratic field takes shape. after watching Republicans lose a district Trump won by 19 points Our next issue is our quarterly House Overview. We’ll take a fresh (Pennsylvania’s 18th) and struggle to win another that he won by more look at all the races across the country and expect to make a significant than 20 points (Arizona’s 8th), that’s enough evidence to move the Aug. number of rating changes, mostly in favor of Democrats.

Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor @InsideElections [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections InsideElections.com Nathaniel Rakich Contributing Analyst [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Leah Askarinam Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Will Taylor [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist @nathanlgonzales @leahaskarinam [email protected] [email protected]

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2 May 4, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research Continued from page 1 Dakota Gasification Co. Conrad, and Rep. —were known as “Team North Dakota,” Sen. Conrad announced his retirement in early 2011, and Heitkamp having served together for 18 years. announced she’d run for his open seat late that year. When Hoeven was elected to the Senate in 2010, he became North named her “Best Candidate of 2012” when she defeated Berg by 1 point. Dakota’s first GOP senator since 1987. In 1986, Conrad defeated GOP Heitkamp is the ranking member of the subcommittee on Sen. Mark Andrews by just a couple thousand votes. On the House side, Regulatory Affairs and Federal Management under the Committee on Berg ousted Pomeroy (55-45 percent) in the Republican wave of 2010. Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; the ranking member Democrats had held that congressional seat since 1981, first with Dorgan of the Subcommittee on Commodities, Trade and Risk Management (1981-1993) and then with Pomeroy, who was first elected in 1992. under the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee; and the Despite some luck down ballot, Democrats haven’t fared as well ranking member of the Subcommittee on Economic Policy under at the top of the ticket historically. Only three Democratic presidential the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. She also candidates have carried North Dakota since the turn of the century—that sits on the Indian Affairs and Small Business and Entrepreneurship is, the 20th century: Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and committees. Lyndon B. Johnson. Like other Democratic senators running for re-election in Trump North Dakota’s population, at 755,000 in 2017, is the fourth smallest in states, Heitkamp will distance herself from the national party, instead the country. The western part of the state, which features fracking and oil pitching herself as a representative for North Dakota’s interests, not as major industries, is more Republican, while the eastern part includes Washington’s. She’s happy to call herself a moderate—and maintains population hubs that are more likely to swing toward Democrats. In fact, that the Senate needs more of them. Heitkamp was the first Democrat there’s only one Democrat in the Legislature who represents a western to announce she’d support CIA Director for Secretary North Dakota district. Fargo and Grand Forks are considered more of State, for example. She was also one of three Senate Democrats who progressive, though not large enough to be considered urban, while voted to confirm ’s appointment to the Supreme Court. American Indian reservations, mostly in the eastern part of the state, also One Democratic strategist believes voters notice how often she steps tend to vote for Democrats (Heitkamp won Sioux County, for example, away from the party, pointing to her work with Democratic Sen. Sheldon 84-16 percent). Whitehouse and GOP Sens. and Shelley Moore Capito On Election Night, race observers will be looking at Cass County on a bill to reduce carbon emissions. Democrats also believe she’ll have (Fargo), where Trump landed 50 percent of the vote in 2016, Hoeven took support from the agricultural community, and hope that the incumbent 72 percent and Cramer ended up with 58 percent. In 2012, Heitkamp benefits from a good Democratic year. managed to win Cass County by 14 points (57-43 percent) even as Democrats and Republicans alike describe her as a well-liked and Romney defeated Obama 50-47 percent. Continued on page 4

The Incumbent Television Markets in North Dakota Heitkamp grew up in Mantador, North Dakota. In a town of 90 people, she told ’s Women Rule, “my family was a tenth of the population.” Her brother, Joel, is a popular, liberal radio show host of KFGO’s News and Views. In 1984, Heitkamp first ran for statewide office, losing the state auditor’s race to a GOP incumbent. Two years later, she was elected tax commissioner in a statewide race, and remained in that role through 1992, when she was elected attorney general. After losing the 2000 governor’s race to Hoeven, which included a public battle with breast cancer, Heitkamp became director of Source: Media Strategies & Research

InsideElections.com May 4, 2018 3 Continued from page 3 A little more than a year ago, Cramer landed in some hot water when hardworking politician, though that may not be enough to hold on to he called a group of congresswomen “poorly dressed” when they wore her seat. white for Trump’s joint session of Congress—the congresswomen’s Heitkamp’s campaign team includes media consultant Mark Putnam attire was meant to support women’s rights by acknowledging the and pollster Mark Mellman, two of Democrats’ most experienced women’s suffrage movement after Hillary Clinton’s loss. Republicans strategists. acknowledge his gaffes and admit that his speaking style isn’t exactly polished. But that’s also part of his charm, according to one GOP The Challenger strategist. Berg, who sometimes sounded scripted, actually suffered from Cramer grew up in Kindred, North Dakota. He became chairman the opposite problem, the strategist explained. Cramer’s brusqueness of the state Republican Party in 1991. He then served as State Tourism could actually serve him well, especially since one Republican believes Director for GOP Gov. , and continued to work in his cabinet that North Dakotans don’t tend to dwell on those sorts of off-color as state economic and development and finance director until 2000. He comments. Even one Democrat acknowledged that his comments on became Public Service Commissioner in 2003, initially appointed by women’s wardrobe—and when he tried to justify a Sean Spicer gaffe then-Gov. Hoeven and elected to the position in 2004 and re-elected in about Adolf Hitler—likely had more play outside the state than within 2010. its borders. Cramer filled Berg’s open seat in 2012, winning his first election The congressman, who’s been referred to as an energy adviser to to Congress by 13 points, his 2014 run by 17 points, and his 2016 run the President, was considered a candidate for Secretary of Energy. He by 45 points. Cramer sits on the House Committee on Energy and recently signed a letter by Rep. Luke Messer, who’s running in the Commerce, including the subcommittees on energy, environment, and competitive GOP Senate primary in , nominating Trump for a communications and technology. Nobel Peace Prize. Entering the 2018 Senate race, Cramer has already won a handful Cramer will also face attacks for paying his family members for of statewide elections, which is an advantage for two reasons: one, he’s campaign work. But one Republican notes that issue has neutralized, proven he can win a statewide race. And two, he’s developed name ID arguing that plenty of congressmen have done the same thing in a before the Senate race even started. NRSC polling, conducted Feb. 18- common practice. Plus, Republicans believe he’s accessible, appearing on 20 by the Tarrance Group, found Cramer and Heitkamp with similar radio shows several times per week. favorability and name ID. Fifty-three percent of voters had a favorable Cramer’s campaign team includes WPAi for polling, Wilson Grand view of Cramer and 29 percent unfavorable, while Heitkamp had a 54 for media, and North Dakota-based Odney for direct mail. percent favorable rating and 38 percent unfavorable. That poll also had Cramer ahead 49-44 percent on the general election ballot. Continued on page 5

North Dakota Statewide Election Results

SOS = Secretary of State AC = Agriculture Commissioner TC = Tax Commissioner * Special Election AG = Attorney General PSC = Public Service Commissioner IC = Insurance Commissioner

4 May 4, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research Continued from page 4 with Cramer’s campaign explained that the congressman originally decided against running because of family considerations. But just How We Got Here about a month later, Cramer announced that he’d challenge Heitkamp At different points over the last year, it seemed likely that either after all. Heitkamp or Cramer would be absent from the general election ballot. Even so, the congressman’s refusal to run for Senate was largely Heitkamp was in conversations with President Trump about a cabinet interpreted as a sign that Republicans failed to recruit a top-tier candidate position, creating the possibility that Cramer could be appointed to due to a difficult political climate. But Republicans weren’t always on a vacant seat. But when that didn’t happen, Cramer wasn’t sure if he board with the notion that Cramer was their best choice. Party strategists would run against Heitkamp. After stretching out the decision-making were concerned about his fashion comments and attempted to recruit process for months, he originally announced in January that he’d seek a a handful of women, including state Treasurer Kelly Schmidt, oil field fourth term. services company owner Kathy Neset, and Border States Electric CEO Cramer’s decision against running for Senate came after President Tammy Miller. But Tom Campbell, a wealthy state senator, temporarily Trump invited the congressman to the to ask him to became the frontrunner, until opposition research against him surfaced, run. “We’ve decided that the best thing for our family and for me and and the Republican Party turned its attention back to Cramer. I think, frankly, for North Dakota is for me to seek re-election to the To the relief of Republicans, Cramer decided to run after all. A House of Representatives,” Cramer told Politico. A Republican aligned Continued on page 6

Candidate Conversations

Jeff Van Drew (D) Greg Steube (R) New Jersey’s 2nd District — Florida 17th District — Rating: Tilt Democratic Rating: Solid Republican Interview Date: March 15, 2018 Interview Date: March 27, 2018 Date of Birth: Feb. 23, 1953; Date of Birth: May 19, 1978; New York, N.Y. Bradenton, Florida Education: Rutgers (1975); Education: Univ. of Florida Fairleigh Dickinson Dental (2000, law school 2003)

School (1979) Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call Elected Office:State Senate Elected Office: State Senate; State Assembly (former); Cape May County (2016); State House (former, 2010-16) Freeholder (former); Dennis Township Mayor (former) Current Outlook: Republicans are looking for a replacement for Rep. Current Outlook: The combination of an open seat and credible candidate Tom Rooney, who announced his retirement in February. Steube’s biggest is fueling Democratic excitement about finally taking over this South Jersey challenge will be getting past state Rep. Julio Gonzalez in the primary, seat, where GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo is retiring. Donald Trump carried since President Donald Trump carried the south-central district with 62 the district with 51 percent, but Van Drew represents some of the seat’s percent, and the GOP nominee will enter the general election with an most Republican territory already and got out to an early fundraising edge. advantage while the GOP searched for a candidate. Van Drew had Evaluation: After Steube graduated from University of Florida, where $456,000 in the bank on March 31 while none of the Republicans had more he majored in beef cattle science, he went on to UF Law School. But after than $83,000. This is the type of race Democrats should win this cycle. Sept. 11, 2001, Steube crammed three years of credits into two years of Evaluation: Van Drew moved to South Jersey after his residency, law school, taking the bar in February and entering the Army in March. working with Colgate before starting his own dental practice in He attended officer candidate school, becoming an infantry officer before Pleasantville. (He plans to step away from it if he wins the election.) He’s becoming the chief of detainee operations in 2006-07, where he inspected been president of the Dental Society, and pointed to his advocacy for HIV various bases to ensure they were following the Geneva Conventions. patients’ rights, and elected to state and local offices. He delayed running Steube left active duty in 2008, and announced his run for the state House for Congress because his kids were in college, he got along well with in 2009. He served in the state House until he won a state Senate election LoBiondo, and was hesitant to give up his senate seat. But the timing and in 2016, and he currently represents part of the 17th Congressional open seat caused him to take a fresh look. The congressman announced District. Steube plans to run as a conservative and highlight his his retirement in November while Van Drew won re-election with 67 experience as a JAG who supports the 2nd Amendment and opposes percent in a GOP-leaning district. Van Drew is a likable candidate with . He showed empathy for DACA recipients and expressed a legitimate chance at winning, since he won’t likely face a Republican support for the program, but also said those students shouldn’t get in- who can replicate LoBiondo’s labor support in the district. The biggest state tuition, framing it as a tax issue. In our interview, he was confident challenge for Van Drew might be within his own party after he’s elected, but also low-key and casual. He supports the GOP tax bill and cuts in considering his past campaign contribution from the National Rifle regulations, though he said he would have voted against the Republican Association and “A” rating from a group that is considered offensive to omnibus bill, which was supported by Trump, because of his concerns most members of the Democratic Party. about the deficit.

InsideElections.com May 4, 2018 5 Continued from page 5 candidate. And Republicans are confident that, given Heitkamp’s record, Republican aligned with the campaign explained that despite his family personality will be an afterthought in this race. considerations, he decided it was best for the country. One Republican strategist, who believes that both candidates are likable, pointed to Cory Gardner’s 2014 campaign as an example. In an How It Plays Out ad, Gardner called then-Sen. Mark Udall a “nice guy,” before going on Republicans say this election will be about Heitkamp’s record. to explain why Udall was the wrong candidate to change Washington. Democrats believe it’s more complicated. The argument in North Dakota, however, rather than shaking up It makes sense that Republicans would want to avoid a personality Washington, would be that a vote for Cramer is a vote for Trump’s contest against an affable opponent, who more than one Republican agenda. compared to Bill Clinton in her interpersonal political skills. Democrats It won’t hurt that Heitkamp voted for Gorsuch and supported believe Cramer fails to connect with North Dakotans the way Pompeo, and Republicans expect her to frame her votes as pro-North Heitkamp does. But even as many Republicans disagree that Cramer is Dakota rather than pro-Trump. (This is part of the 2018 playbook for unpopular—and believe he’s accessible—they still don’t want voters to Senate Democrats running in Trump states, as we’ve noted in our go to the polling booth with the intention of selecting the more likable Continued on page 7

Candidate Conversations

Lisa Brown (D) Debbie Mucarsel- Washington’s 5th District — Powell (D) Rating: Likely R Florida’s 26th District — Interview Date: March 15, 2018 Rating: Tilt Republican Date of Birth: Oct. 19. 1956; Interview Date: March 14, 2018 Robinson, Ill. Date of Birth: Jan. 18, 1971; Education: Univ. of Illinois Ecuador (1974); Univ. of Colorado Education: Pitzer College (master’s 1986) (1992), Claremont McKenna Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Elected Office: State Senate (former, 1996-2012) Graduate University (1996) Current Outlook: President Donald Trump carried this eastern Elected Office:None; 2016 nominee for state senate Washington district with 52 percent in 2016, but Speaker ’s Current Outlook: Mucarsel-Powell lost a state senate election and now Congressional Leadership Fund set up a field office in the district—an she’s taking on one of Republicans’ most talented incumbents: Rep. initial sign Republicans are concerned about GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Carlos Curbelo. But this time, she should have the political wind at her Rodgers’ re-election chances. Brown is a top-tier candidate and the likely back in a Democratic-leaning district in South Florida that Hillary Clinton Democratic nominee, although she must make sure to finish in the top won by 16 points. She lagged behind the incumbent in cash on hand on two of the district’s all-party primary on Aug. 7. McMorris Rodgers, March 31 ($2.1 million to $702,000), but the Democratic backlash against the most senior woman in Republican leadership on , served President Donald Trump might be a problem that Curbelo can’t fix with with Brown in the state Legislature. They’ll face off in what should be a money. competitive race in a GOP-leaning district. Evaluation: Mucarsel-Powell decided to run for Congress after Curbelo Evaluation: Brown, who grew up in Illinois, first visited Spokane to visit voted in favor of the House health care bill, proving to her that the friends after graduating from University of Illinois, and ended up getting congressman would not provide a check on the President. Prior to a job and teaching in Washington for 20 years, first at Eastern Washington her involvement in politics, she had a career working with nonprofits, University and later at Gonzaga. She defeated a GOP state senator in including serving as director of development for a nonprofit that worked 1996 in a district that included downtown Spokane. Brown stepped away with adults with mental disabilities, and later becoming an independent from the Legislature in 2012 to help birth a medical school at Washington contractor, working with Florida International University. Mucarsel- State University, where she was appointed chancellor of the Spokane Powell first immigrated from Ecuador to Pomona, California at age Health Sciences campus. Brown believes that health care is the number 14 with her mom and sisters, and moved to Miami in 1996 to work as one issue in this campaign, and hopes to fix the with an office manager for a shipping company. Gun violence is a personal the ultimate goal of universal health care, noting that her mother worked issue to Mucarsel-Powell and helps inform her views considering her at Walmart late into her 70s to pay for prescription drugs. Brown doesn’t father was shot and killed in South America when she was a young plan to focus on Trump during the campaign and believes the GOP adult. Republicans could try to ding her for not living in the district (she Congress is more unpopular than the President anyway. Brown will have lives in the 27th), but Curbelo doesn’t live there either. In our interview, to answer for years of votes in the Legislature. This district hasn’t seen a Mucarsel-Powell wasn’t as polished as some of her fellow Democrats serious race in years, but Brown will force Republicans to spend time and running elsewhere, but this cycle and this district could be very forgiving money on the race. And Republicans can’t afford to lose another woman to Democrats and help her defeat one of Republicans’ top Members. in the House.

6 May 4, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research Continued from page 6 The president, however, made her job a bit easier when he visited the analyses of , Montana, Missouri, and Indiana.) She’ll have state in September 2017 for a tax speech. Trump invited Heitkamp to travel to disentangle herself from New York Sen. , who would from D.C. with him on . And once on stage, the president likely become majority leader if Democrats gain two seats nationally, but had nice things to say about the Democratic senator: “Everyone’s saying, she can’t afford to distance herself from Trump, either. Continued on page 8

Candidate Conversations

Susie Lee (D) Dean Phillips (DFL) ’s 3rd District — ’s 3rd District — Rating: Tilt Democratic Rating: Lean Republican Interview Date: March 15, 2018 Interview Date: April 27, 2018 Date of Birth: Nov. 7, 1966; Date of Birth: Jan. 20, 1969; Canton, Ohio St. Paul, Minn. Education: Carnegie Mellon Education: Brown Univ. (1991); Univ. (1989 undergrad, 1990 Univ. of Minnesota business

Master’s) Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call school (2000) Elected Office:None; 4th District candidate (2016) Elected Office:None; First run for office Current Outlook: In 2016, Lee finished third in the Democratic primary Current Outlook: Rep. Erik Paulsen is one of the most vulnerable in the 4th District, but this cycle she’s running in the neighboring 3rd Republicans in Congress considering Hillary Clinton won his suburban District, which is open because Democratic Rep. is leaving Twin Cities district with 51 percent. Paulsen proved to be a strong her seat to challenge GOP Sen. . Democratic Rep. Ruben campaigner and fundraiser in 2016, when he won re-election by 14 points Kihuen subsequently announced he will not seek re-election to the against a candidate Democrats once touted as a top challenger. But this is 4th District, but Lee is staying in this race. President Donald Trump a different political climate. Democratic voters in suburbs elsewhere have narrowly carried the 3rd with 48 percent, but open seats in more surged against President Donald Trump in special elections and Paulsen favorable territory have proven to be difficult for Republicans to hold in is facing a stronger challenger this year, which should help Democrats recent special elections. Lee ($1 million on March 31) has endorsements defeat the congressman. from EMILY’s List and Sen. and is the likely Evaluation: Phillips has plenty of personal money, but drives around the Democratic nominee while the crowded GOP field includes state Sen. district in a milk truck from 1960, the last time the area sent a Democrat to Scott Hammond ($102,000), former state Assemblywoman Victoria the House. The first-time candidate occasionally serves coffee out of the Seaman ($42,000), former Clark County GOP Chairman Dave McKeon “government repair” truck (which makes sense since he owns a couple ($7,000; former California GOP Rep. Buck McKeon’s son) and 2016 of local coffee shops) and was an investor in Talenti gelato, so the whole nominee Danny Tarkanian ($729,000), who switched from the Senate schtick makes sense. Phillips’ great-great grandfather originally started race at the President’s request. Lee should be able to win this race. a vodka distillery in 1912, but his father wouldn’t let him join the family Evaluation: Lee explained that despite naming her daughter “Nevada,” business without some work experience elsewhere (he was part of a bike she never planned to run for Congress. She moved to with equipment start-up called InMotion). He eventually joined in lower level her husband in the early 1990s because her husband was CFO at the positions and, after a graduate degree, held the title of President and Mirage. Once in Vegas, Lee worked for mayor Jan Jones’ gubernatorial CEO. Phillips is determined to be Paulsen’s best-funded challenger to campaign. She later worked with a drop-in homeless center in Las date. He isn’t taking PAC money and has challenged the congressman to Vegas, started an after-school program under the 21st Century Learning a pledge to keep outside groups from spending on the race. It’s probably Centers, and started Nevada Women’s Philanthropy, which invests in easier for Phillips to do because he has personal money to invest in the local nonprofits. Lee came up short in the crowded and competitive race if necessary, but he hadn’t made a significant contribution from his 2016 primary, eventually won by Kihuen, and learned that fundraising own checkbook up to our interview. And while he might be dismissed isn’t the only part of a campaign. This time, she is focused on building as rich and elitist (and compared to wealthy Republican Stewart Mills coalitions, but still has considerable fundraising. She lives in Summerlin, who lost twice in the 8th District), Phillips is charismatic and is running which is in the 4th District, about a quarter-mile from the district’s in a more affluent district where having money may not be as much of border, but Republicans love to paint her as a rich elitist for owning 17 a liability as on the Iron Range. Republicans will attack Phillips for being homes (15 of them are rental properties, according to the candidate). too liberal, and for supporting Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the When that attack comes, Lee is more likely to talk about her childhood, past, but he doesn’t have a voting record to attack and both Democrats including being one of eight children with a dad who attended college performed well in the district. And Phillips will make the case that on the GI Bill and getting a paper route at age eight. In our interview, Paulsen is too conservative and votes too often with Trump. Paulsen Lee was personable and didn’t come across as out-of-touch, and even isn’t taking his race for granted, but he might do everything in his power though she’s a Democrat, she wasn’t interested in shaming Trump to win and still lose to Phillips because of a revolt from Democrats and voters who were victims of the recession. Lee isn’t perfect, but don’t be independents in the district against Trump’s party. surprised if she’s a Member of Congress next year.

InsideElections.com May 4, 2018 7 Continued from page 7 issue in November, believes that audio recordings of Cramer expressing ‘What’s she doing up here?’ But I’ll tell you what: Good woman, and I pride about voting to repeal the ACA will play poorly. Democrats think we’ll have your support.” Cramer also attended the event, though will argue that Heitkamp prioritizes North Dakota over Trump, while he had not yet announced his candidacy. So far, Trump’s tone toward Cramer will put the President’s agenda first. Heitkamp has been more friendly than his recent approach with Sens. of Montana or of West Virginia. Battle on the Airwaves Heitkamp ended up voting against the tax bill, so Republicans could North Dakota is a small state with two media markets, and given argue that Trump’s act of goodwill went unreciprocated. Democrats the implications of this race for the majority, it will be flooded with believe that, even if Trump changes his tone, voters have seen Trump ads from the candidates and outside groups. Democrats are confident compliment Heitkamp (albeit with awkward phrasing) outside about Heitkamp’s advantage in cash on hand—$5.3 million compared the context of a competitive campaign. Heitkamp is also quoted in to Cramer’s $1.9 million—though Cramer more recently entered the The Washington Post saying that the President asked her to run as a race. Republican. Heitkamp will have to answer for votes she took during the Obama One Democrat believes that Cramer has spent too much time attached administration, along with her record on sanctuary cities, immigration, to Trump and focused on conservative social issues such as abortion. energy policy, the flaring rule, and pro-life issues, according to And a Democratic strategist, who believes health care will remain a key Republican strategists. Senate Leadership Fund, a major GOP outside Thesegroup, arehas thealready initial been ratings on fortelevision the chart. with You’ll an ad notice attacking a “new” her category foreign at thepolicy end positions, “Lean Independent.” showing images Maybe of dyingput that Syrian below children the column after tha a t has 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings thechemical least ratings.attack. While But we Democrats don’t need believe Tilt Independent, that the ad Likelywill backfire, Independent, Toss-Up SolidRepublicans Independent say they since haven’t that would seen evidence be vacant. of that at this point. Americans for Prosperity has also been on television against Heitkamp. FL Open (Scott, R) Toss-Up Democrats, in their first ad, went a different direction. Heitkamp’s Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican FL Open (Scott, R) campaign released a one-minuteMI Open ad (Snyder, (digital and R) television), which was Rauner (R-Ill.) Walker (I-Alaska) a repurposed digital ad fromNV Open her 2012 (Sandoval, campaign. R) The spot features her MI Open (Snyder, R) OH Open (Kasich, R) siblings describing Heitkamp as a child—along with how she handled Tilt R NV Open (Sandoval, R) the chores. Heitkamp ends the ad—“I’m Heidi Heitkamp, and I can’t OH Open (Kasich, R) Lean Democratic Lean Republican believe I approved this message.” SLF’s dark attack ad and Heitkamp’s cheery one embodies the two, Wolf (D-Pa.) Hogan (R-Md.) Lean R Branstaddiverging (R-Iowa) strategies of this campaign. In 2012, Heitkamp boasted about CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) Reynolds (R-Iowa) not airing a negative ad, while Democratic outside groups destroyed her Likely R CT Open (Malloy, D) Sununu (R-N.H.) GOP opponent. Ducey (R-Ariz.) ME Open (LePage, R) Walker (R-Wis.) Hogan (R-Md.) MN Open (Dayton, DFL) SununuHeitkamp’s (R-N.H.) Record and The Issues NM Open (Martinez, R) WalkerIt’s still (R-Wis.) too early to predict exactly what issues will define the GAcampaign—the Open (R-Ga.) specific topics will depend on future polling— Likely Democratic Likely Republican KS Open (Brownback, R) but Heitkamp will have to defend her record during the Obama Brown (D-Ore.) Colyer (R-Kansas) OK Open (Fallin, R) TNadministration. Open (Haslam, R) Raimondo (D-R.I.) Ducey (R-Ariz.) Republicans expressed surprise that Heitkamp didn’t vote for the GA Open (Deal, R) Solidtax bill, R especially after the President personally lobbied for it. One OK Open (Fallin, R) AbbottDemocratic (R-Texas) strategist noted that even Republicans know that the tax bill Baker (R-Mass.) hasn’t been the magic bullet that the GOP hoped for. Another Democrat TN Open (Haslam, R) Hutchinson (R-Ark.) Solid Democratic Solid Republican Iveybelieved (R-Ala.) Cramer’s vote in favor of the tax bill would show he ramped up McMastergovernment (R-S.C.) spending. Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Abbott (R-Texas) RickettsOverall, (R-Neb.) the politics of the tax bill are still unclear. Even if it is Ige (D-Hawaii) Baker (R-Mass.) Scottperceived (R-Vt.) positively, are voters enthusiastic enough about it to punish ID Open (Otter, R) CA Open (Brown, D) Hutchinson (R-Ark.) the incumbent for voting against it? One Republican strategist who has SD Open (Daugaard, R) Ivey (R-Ala.) WYworked Open in (Mead,North Dakota, R) however, believes that the tax bill is growing in McMaster (R-S.C.) popularity, driven partly by the popularity of the President. Ricketts (R-Neb.) Tilt RepublicansD also repeatedly pointed to Heitkamp’s votes on oil and Rauner (R-Ill.) Italics for takeover Scott (R-Vt.) energy, including voting against repealing the methane flaring rule from the Obama administration, which, as The Washington Post explained, ID Open (Otter, R) Lean D “would force oil and gas companies to capture methane that had been SD Open (Daugaard, R) Wolf (D-Pa.) COpreviously Open (Hickenlooper, burned off or D)‘flared’ at drilling sites.” Heitkamp wrote a WY Open (Mead, R) CTletter Open with (Malloy, Manchin D) to Secretary Ryan Zinke asking to work with him # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans MEto make Open the (LePage, law “more R) Italicsresponsive for takeover and efficient for industry and state Takeovers in Italics NM Open (Martinez, R) Italics for takeover Continued on page 9 VA Open (McAuliffe, D)

Likely D 8 May 4, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research NJ Open (Christie, R) Italics for takeover

Solid D Brown (R-Ore.) Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Ige (D-Hawaii) Raimondo (D-R.I.) CA Open (Brown, D) MN Open (Dayton, DFL)

Lean I Walker (I-Alaska) Continued from page 8 issues, than in states like Alabama, whose conservatism is more likely to regulators while preventing waste and ensuring maximum return for the extend to social issues. American taxpayer.” Democrats also believe that the GOP’s position on tariffs will hurt The GOP also points to Heitkamp’s vote against the Pain Capable Cramer. One Democratic strategist believes that Cramer’s loyalty to Unborn Child Protection Act, a bill that bans abortion after 20 weeks. the President is scaring some North Dakota farmers, given Trump’s Media outlets showed an image of Heitkamp in what appeared to be a proposals on a trade deal and tariffs. high-five after taking that vote, though full footage shows that did not But Republicans believe that Trump’s popularity remains high and actually happen. Three Senate Democrats ended up voting in favor of will remain so through November. And Republicans expect Trump and that bill, all running for re-election in Trump states: Sens. Vice President to personally visit the state to campaign for of Indiana, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, and West Virginia’s Manchin. the GOP nominee. While Republicans believe that vote shows Heitkamp is out of step with North Dakota, one Democrat isn’t sure it will have sticking power in Lessons from 2012 this race, given that pro-choice Democrats have been elected to Congress When Republicans look back at 2012, they lay much of the blame before; the issue might not have as much potency in North Dakota, at Berg’s feet. They believe he was a flawed candidate whose personal which embodies more of a conservative populism that focuses on fiscal Continued on page 10

Candidate Conversations

Cresent Hardy (R) Deb Haaland (D) Nevada’s 4th District — New Mexico’s 1st District — Rating: Likely Democratic Rating: Solid Democratic Interview Date: March 13, 2018 Interview Date: April 17, 2018 Date of Birth: June 23, 1957; Date of Birth: Dec. 2, 1960; Mesquite, Nev. Winslow, Ariz. Education: Dixie State Univ. Education: Univ. of New

D.A. Banks/CQ Roll Call Mexico (1994, law school 2006) Elected Office: U.S. House D.A. Banks/CQ Roll Call (former, 2011-12); state Elected Office:None; 2014 nominee for lieutenant governor Assembly (former); Mesquite city council (former) Current Outlook: Haaland is a top contender for Michelle Lujan Current Outlook: Even though Hardy is a former Member of Congress, Grisham’s Albuquerque-based open seat. The district should be solid for he’s an underdog in the race to get his old seat back. Hardy was first Democrats in November but the June 5 primary is competitive. It looks elected in 2014, in a late-breaking race in a big GOP year in which like the fight is between Haaland, a former state party chairwoman who the party caught Democrat napping. Hardy lost to would be the first Native American woman in Congress, and retired law Democrat in 2016, 49-45 percent, but Kihuen is not professor Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez, but former U.S. Attorney Damon seeking re-election because of allegations of sexual misconduct. Hardy Martinez and attorney Damien Lara are running as well. Former state is likely to face Horsford again, but Hillary Clinton won the district by 5 Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (who lost to Lujan Grisham by 18 points in 2012) points in 2016 and this year will not be as favorable to Republicans. and immigration lawyer Michael Hendricks are running on the GOP side. Evaluation: Hardy says that after losing his 2016 race, he initially did Evaluation: As the daughter of a Marine who served in Vietnam, not plan to run again, instead spending his time working on his farm. Haaland attended 13 public schools, including Highland High School in He originally supported Stavros Anthony, who had to withdraw due Albuquerque. She was 28 when she started college, previously working to health issues, and said people started to ask him to reconsider at a bakery, and gave birth to her daughter four days after graduating. running after Kihuen came down with the #MeToo movement. She subsequently started a salsa company called Pueblo Salsa, attended Reflecting on his failed re-election bid, Hardy blames a surge in law school, and became a full-time volunteer for Illinois Sen. Barack Democratic turnout and exorbitant spending from Sen. . Obama in 2008. But after the Obama campaign, she couldn’t find a job This year, he believes that Democratic money won’t saturate the in New Mexico, and moved in with her brother and his four kids in district to the same extent, and that voters will now understand that California. She returned to New Mexico for Democrat Diane Denish’s he’s been the strongest representative who’s driven by his a purpose gubernatorial campaign as Native American Program director. Haaland of service. He’s generally supportive of President Donald Trump and ran for lieutenant governor in 2014 on a ticket with the gubernatorial believes his district is too, though he maintained that this race isn’t nominee, which could give her a name identification boost for this about the President. He backed away from his previous criticism of the race. She served as chairwoman of the state Democrats, overseeing the President after the Access Hollywood tape was released, saying he’s party’s gains in 2016. In our interview, Haaland was low-key but has been working on being less judgemental. Hardy seems to believe that an interesting backstory about what she did as a single mother to make this is a Republican district that happened to elect a Democrat in 2016, ends meet, including starting a small business. Crowded primaries are when it’s more likely this is a Democratic district that happened to elect difficult to handicap, but Haaland has a viable path to victory. a Republican in 2014.

InsideElections.com May 4, 2018 9 Continued from page 9 and rental properties gave Democrats plenty of ammunition. Berg also 2018 House Ratings had the burden of being the candidate who was already in Washington, D.C., while Heitkamp had spent her career in North Dakota. This race, Toss-Up (7R, 2D) CA-48 from Lean R to Tilt R # however, Republicans believe the two candidates come in with the same CA 39 (Open; Royce, R) MN 8 (Open; Nolan, DFL) IL-12 from Likely R to Lean R # baggage, both having served in D.C. since 2012. CA 49 (Open; Issa, R) TX 23 (Hurd, R) IA-02 from Likely D to Solid D (So, this will be off the chart or Dropped from the List) MI 11 (Open; Trott, R)# VA 10 (Comstock, R) One Republican strategist who has worked in North Dakota KY 6 (Barr, R)# from Solid R to Lean R (note this is a two-category move) FYI, agrees that there are several constants, namely that Heitkamp is still a MN 1 (Open; Walz, DFL) WA 8 (Open; Reichert, R) newly added to the list charismatic politician in a small state where personality matters. Other MN 2 (Lewis, R) MI 6 (Upton, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (also newly added) from Solid D to Likely D * (newly added) than Heitkamp’s voting record, the biggest difference in this race is that Tilt Democratic (4D, 4R) Tilt Republican (14R) NY 11 Donovan, D)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) there is a popular Republican president. While the 2012 GOP race was AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) CA 10 (Denham, R) NY-22 from Lean R to Tilt R # NC 9 (Pittinger, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) primarily a race against President Obama, who was widely disliked in AZ 2 (Open; McSally, R) CA 25 (Knight, R) PA-6 from Likely R to Lean R # the state, the 2016 GOP message will be in support of President Trump’s NH 1 (Open; Shea-Porter, D) CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R) TX-7 from Likely R to Lean R # agenda. (Read Nathan’s post-mortem of the 2012 race at InsideElections. NJ 2 (Open; LoBiondo, R)# CO 6 (Coffman, R) VA 5 (Garrett, R)# from Solid R to Likely R (newly added) com.) NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D) FL 26 (Curbelo, R) NJ 11 (Open; Frelinghuysen, R)# IA 1 (Blum,R) The Bottom Line NV 3 (Open; Rosen, D) NE 2 (Bacon, R) Of the handful of Democratic incumbents up for re-election in Trump PA 7 (Open; Dent, R) NY 19 (Faso, R) states, the most competitive races all share a few key components: NY 22 (Tenney, R) Democrats distancing themselves from the national party, Republican OH 12 (Vacant, R)# candidates cozying up to Trump, and the lingering question of whether PA 1 (Fitzpatrick, R) personal affinity for a candidate can overcome partisan polarization. IL 6 (Roskam, R) A couple GOP strategists believe North Dakota’s race is most PA 17 (Rothfus, R) TX 7 (Culberson, R) reminiscent of West Virginia’s, where Obama’s policies were the final AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D)# nail in the Democratic Party’s coffin in formerly blue bastions—unless Lean Democratic (1D, 1R) Lean Republican (10R) Move from Toss Up to Tilt D Manchin and Heitkamp, as skilled politicians, can prolong Democratic FL 7 (Murphy, D) CA 45 (Walters, R) NJ 7 (Lance, R) AZ 2 (McSally, R)# presence in those states for six more years. (One Republican dismissed FL 27 (Open; Ros-Lehtinen, R) IL 12 (Bost, R) UT 4 (Love, R) Move from Lean Republican to Toss-up Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri as the most continuously lucky KS 2 (Open; Jenkins, R) WI 1 (Open; Ryan, R) CA 24 (Carbajal, D)# politician, now benefitting from the Republican governor’s scandal.) KS 3 (Yoder, R) From Likely D to Dropped From List Democrats acknowledge that this race will be tight, but believe KY 6 (Barr, R) North Dakotans have always been willing to look past partisan politics. MI 8 (Bishop, R) FL 13 (Crist, D)# Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic Ultimately this will be a test of whether Heitkamp’s attempt to localize MN 3 (Paulsen, R) the race will be enough for her to win re-election, with prospects of a Likely Democratic (5D, 2R) Likely Republican (20R) GA 6 (Handel, R)* Democratic majority hanging in the balance. Move from Lean R to Likely R CA 7 (Bera, D) AZ 8 (Lesko, R) NY 11 Donovan, R) FL 13 (Crist, D) CA 21 (Valadao, R) NY 24 (Katko, R) MT A-L (Gianforte, R)* MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) CA 50 (Hunter, R) PA 10 (Perry, R) Move from Lean R to Likely R NV 4 (Open; Kihuen, D) GA 6 (Handel, R) TX 32 (Sessions, R) CALENDAR MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)# PA 5 (Open; Meehan, R) IL 13 (Davis, R) VA 2 (Taylor, R) Move from Lean D to Likely D May 8 North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia Primaries; PA 6 (Open; Costello, R) IA 3 (Young, R) VA 5 (Garrett, R) Ohio’s 12th District Special Primary Election PA 8 (Cartwright, (D) ME 2 (Poliquin, R) VA 7 (Brat, R) NE 2 (Bacon, R)# Lean Republican to Tilt Republican May 15 Oregon, Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Idaho Primaries MI 6 (Upton, R) WA 5 (McMorris May 18 Washington Filing Deadline MT A-L (Gianforte, R) Rodgers, R) NJ 2 (OPEN; LoBiondo, R)# Move onto the board at Lean Republican May 22 Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia Primaries NC 9 (Pittenger, R) NC 13 (Budd, R) May 30 Arizona Filing Deadline VA 2 (Taylor, R)# NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) Move onto the board at Likely Republican May 31 Vermont Filing Deadline April 9 - North Dakota Filing Deadline June 1 Alaska, Kansas, Wisconsin and Wyoming Filing Deadlines VA 7 (Brat, 4)# GOP DEM Move onto the board at Likely Republican April 12 - New York Filing Deadline June 5 Minnesota, Hawaii and Massachusetts Filing Deadlines; 115th Congress 240 195 April 13 - Oklahoma Filing Deadline California, Alabama, New Mexico, Mississippi, Montana, VA 10 (Comstock, R)# Currently Solid 183 182 April 24 - Michigan Filing Deadline Iowa, South Dakota and New Jersey Primaries From Tilt R to Toss Up Florida - May 4 Filing Deadline Competitive 58 12 Connecticut Filing Deadline; Virginia, North Dakota, June 12 Needed for majority 218 South Carolina, Nevada and Maine Primaries # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics June 15 New Hampshire Filing Deadline

June 26 New York, Maryland, Utah, Oklahoma and Colorado Primaries June 27 Rhode Island Filing Deadline

10 May 4, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

CALENDAR March 12 Montana Filing Deadline March 13 Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Election March 16 Iowa and Nevada Filing Deadlines March 20 Colorado Filing Deadline March 27 Missouri and South Dakota Filing Deadlines March 30 South Carolina Filing Deadlines