This issue brought to you by North Dakota Senate: Heitkamp Hoping for Another Home Run Campaign MAY 4, 2018 VOLUME 2, NO. 9 By Leah Askarinam The map of competitive Senate races has opened up to some unexpected places. One year ago, it seemed unlikely that we’d be 2018 Senate Ratings discussing2018 whether Democrats Senate could win a RatingsSenate seat in Tennessee or Toss-Up Texas, let alone that the GOP would lose a seat in Alabama. But North Dakota has been on the map sinceToss-Up the day after the November 2012 Donnelly (D-Ind.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) election,Donnelly when (D-Ind.) Heidi Heitkamp squeakedManchin out a(D-W.Va.) victory to keep the seat in Heitkamp (D-N.D.) Nelson (D-Fla.) Democratic hands. Heitkamp (D-N.D.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Heller (R-Nev.) AZ Open (Flake, R) Just a couple years before Heitkamp ran for Senate, North Dakota’s Manchin (D-W.Va.) congressionalHeller (R-Nev.)# delegation was entirely Democratic. Two of those seats fell Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican toTilt Republicans Democratic before Heitkamp tookTilt office—one Republican was ousted by a GOP challenger, and another retired. Republicans were confident that they’d Baldwin (D-Wis.) Baldwin (D-Wis.) take over the third seat in a state where President Barack Obama was Nelson (D-Fla.) Tester (D-Mont.) unpopular. But Heitkamp ran a near-perfect campaign and Democrats Lean Democratic Lean Republican heldTester the (D-Mont.) seat by nine-tenths of a percentage point. Brown (D-Ohio) TN Open (Corker, R) LeanThis Democratictime around, a couple thingsLean remain Republican the same. Heitkamp will again face North Dakota’s GOP House member, and she is still regarded Brown (D-Ohio) Flake (R-Ariz.)# Likely Democratic Likely Republican as an apt and likable politician. But the state appears to have shifted Casey (D-Pa.) Cruz (R-Texas) moreCasey toward (D-Pa.) Republicans since 2012, and Heitkamp now has six years Smith (D-Minn.) ofLikely Senate Democraticvotes to defend. DemocratsLikely may have Republican the national winds at their back, as seen in special elections across the country, but a theoretical Solid Democratic Solid Republican Kaine (D-Va.) wave is more likely to hit Texas suburbs than rural North Dakota. Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) SolidAfter Democratic a long and winding road—whichSolid included Republican personal Cardin (D-Md.) Fischer (R-Neb.) interventionCantwell (D-Wash.) from President Donald Trump—RepublicansBarrasso (R-Wyo.) landed Rep. Carper (D-Del.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) KevinCardin Cramer (D-Md.) to take on Heitkamp. CorkerBut even (R-Tenn.) Republicans confident Feinstein (D-Calif.) Wicker (R-Miss.) about winning in North Dakota know that ousting the Democrat won’t Carper (D-Del.) Cruz (R-Texas) Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) UT Open (Hatch, R) be easy. Feinstein (D-Calif.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Heinrich (D-N.M.) TheGillibrand Lay (D- Of N.Y.) The Land Hatch (R-Utah) Hirono (D-Hawaii) HeinrichLooking (D-N.M.) at the recent election historyStrange of North (R-Ala.) Dakota, Republicans Kaine (D-Va.) have plenty of reasons to be confident. Hirono (D-Hawaii) Wicker (R-Miss.) King (I-Maine) A Republican has won every partisan statewide race since 2008 King (I- Maine) Klobuchar (D-Minn.) except for Heitkamp’s 1-point victory over Rep. Rick Berg in 2012. In Menendez (D-N.J.) 2016,Klobuchar Trump (D-Minn.) carried the state 63-27 percent, while Sen. John Hoeven Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM wonMenendez re-election (D-N.J.) by an even greater margin (79-17 percent). Cramer also Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 51 49 surpassedMurphy (D-Conn.) Trump, winning re-election for the at-large HouseGOP seat byDEM 45 points (69-24 percent). Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle 42 23 Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress 52 48 Given the election results from the last eight years—including Gov. Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 5 15 DougStabenow Burgum’s (D-Mich.) 57-point margin in 2016—it’sNot up this hard cycle to believe43 that 23 Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 4 11 upWarren until 2010,(D-Mass.) North Dakota’s congressionalCurrently delegation Solid was7 entirely15 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Democratic.Whitehouse The (D-R.I.) three Democrats—Sen.Competitive Byron Dorgan, Sen.2 Kent 10 Republicans Continued on page 3 Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans InsideElections.com House Ratings Changes: Democrats’ Open Seat Opportunities By Nathan L. Gonzales It’s dangerous to extrapolate too much from any single special 7 special election race in a district that is more competitive from Likely election, but the trend is clear across nearly all of the special elections Republican to Tilt Republican. GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned in order over the past year: Democrats are over-performing and Republicans are to take a job with Ohio Business Roundtable. Both parties will select struggling to hold open seats. nominees in primaries on Tuesday, May 8, and that could impact the Democrats’ over-performance hasn’t been limited by geography, dynamic, but the fundamentals of the race appear to be in place. considering Democrats have done better than expected in Montana, In Michigan’s 11th District, GOP Rep. Dave Trott isn’t running for Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, even if they’ve fallen re-election, leaving an open seat that Trump carried with less than 50 short in all but one of those races. percent. Both parties have competitive primaries on Aug. 7 but, once Defeating incumbent Republicans should be more difficult for again, this is the type Democrats, considering Members’ connection and name identification of district Republicans across the entire district and potential for better fundraising compared will likely struggle to an open-seat candidate. But, at a minimum, the special election results to hold in this suggest GOP open seats are more vulnerable now than they were last environment. We’re year. changing our rating President Donald Trump carried New Jersey’s 11th District of the race from Tilt narrowly with just 49 percent, but that might not be Republicans’ Republican to Toss- greatest challenge. The likely Democratic nominee is retired Navy up. helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill, who had nearly $1.7 million in campaign Republicans funds at the end of March. She was already on pace to give GOP D.A. Banks/CQ Roll Call are also at Dino Rossi Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen the re-election race of his life, before he considerable risk announced his retirement. Republican state Assemblyman Jay Webber of losing California’s 39th and 49th Districts, which are open because had $221,000 in the bank, about the same amount as two lower-tier of retirements. But we’re going to wait until after the June 5 primary, Democrats. We’re changing our rating of the race from Toss-up to Tilt to make sure Democrats get a candidate into the top two, before re- Democratic. evaluating the races. Trump also carried New Jersey’s 2nd District narrowly with 51 And Democrats have another opportunity in Washington’s 8th percent, but Democrats have a credible challenger in state Sen. Jeff Van District, where GOP Rep. Dave Reichert isn’t running for re-election and Drew. He already represents some of the most Republican territory Hillary Clinton won by 3 points. State Sen. Dino Rossi gives Republicans in the congressional district and has the early advantage in campaign a chance to hold the seat, even under adverse conditions. He jumped cash. Van Drew had $456,000 in the bank on March 31 while none of the out to an early fundraising advantage with $1.5 million in the bank at Republicans had more than $83,000. That fundraising discrepancy is part the end of March. There are three well-funded Democrats battling for of the recipe for Democratic success. We’re changing our rating of the the second slot in the general election and need to finish in the top two race from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. in the Aug. 7 primary. We’ll keep our Toss-up rating for now while the Trump carried Ohio’s 12th District by more than 10 points, but Democratic field takes shape. after watching Republicans lose a district Trump won by 19 points Our next issue is our quarterly House Overview. We’ll take a fresh (Pennsylvania’s 18th) and struggle to win another that he won by more look at all the races across the country and expect to make a significant than 20 points (Arizona’s 8th), that’s enough evidence to move the Aug. number of rating changes, mostly in favor of Democrats. Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor @InsideElections [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections InsideElections.com Nathaniel Rakich Contributing Analyst [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Leah Askarinam Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Will Taylor [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist @nathanlgonzales @leahaskarinam [email protected] [email protected] 840 First Street NE, 3rd Floor Annual subscription (24 issues/year): Washington, DC 20002, 202-546-2822 • Individual - $249 + sales tax • Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) Copyright 2018, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. • Gold License - $5,000 (tax included) 2 May 4, 2018 NONPARTISAN AnALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 1 Dakota Gasification Co. Conrad, and Rep. Earl Pomeroy—were known as “Team North Dakota,” Sen. Conrad announced his retirement in early 2011, and Heitkamp having served together for 18 years. announced she’d run for his open seat late that year. The Washington Post When Hoeven was elected to the Senate in 2010, he became North named her “Best Candidate of 2012” when she defeated Berg by 1 point.