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European Commission’S Free Social Europe E-Newsletter At ISSN 1831-9440 KE-ET-10-001-EN-C Demography report 2010 Are you interested in the publications of the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion? Older, more numerous and diverse Europeans If so, you can download them or take out a free subscription at http://ec.europa.eu/social/publications You are also welcome to sign up to receive the European Commission’s free Social Europe e-newsletter at http://ec.europa.eu/social/e-newsletter http://ec.europa.eu/social If you are interested in the publications of Eurostat, please see http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/population/introduction Demography report 2010 You are also welcome to sign up to receive Eurostat News Releases at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/registration/reginfo http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat Demography Report 2010 Older, more numerous and diverse Europeans COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT European Commission Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, Unit D.4 Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union, Unit F.1 Manuscript completed in March 2011 Document drawn up on the basis of SEC(2011)431, final. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication. Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: EU employment and social policies bring practical benefits to citizens, for example, in finding a job, moving to another Member State for work or other reasons, upgrading skills, etc. In partnership with national authorities, social partners, civil society organisations and other stakeholders, the Directorate-General addresses challenges linked to globalisation, the ageing of Europe's population and changing social realities. Eurostat is the Statistical Office of the European Union. Its mission is to provide the European Union with high- quality statistical information. For that purpose, it gathers and analyses figures from the national statistical offices across Europe and provides comparable and harmonised data for the European Union to use in the definition, implementation and analysis of Community policies. Its statistical products and services are also of great value to Europe’s business community, professional organisations, academics, librarians, NGOs, the media and citizens. Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Cataloguing data as well as an abstract can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2011 ISBN 978-92-79-17603-6 doi:10.2767/79004 ISSN 1831-9440 © European Union, 2011 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium PRINTED ON ELEMENTAL CHLORINE-FREE BLEACHED PAPER (ECF) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Document drawn up on the basis of SEC(2011)431, final. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication. This publication is a joint effort by Commission services, mainly the Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion and Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union. The Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: 'in-house' contributors are as follows EU employment and social policies bring practical benefits to citizens, for example, in finding a job, moving to another Member State for work or other reasons, upgrading skills, etc. In partnership with national authorities, Summary: DG EMPL (Emanuela Tassa); social partners, civil society organisations and other stakeholders, the Directorate-General addresses challenges linked to globalisation, the ageing of Europe's population and changing social realities. Part I (Main Demographic Trends): Eurostat is the Statistical Office of the European Union. Its mission is to provide the European Union with high- quality statistical information. For that purpose, it gathers and analyses figures from the national statistical chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7: Eurostat (Veronica Corsini, Albane Gourdol, Piotr Juchno, Katarzyna offices across Europe and provides comparable and harmonised data for the European Union to use in the Kraszewska, Monica Marcu, Apolonija Oblak Flander and Katya Vasileva); definition, implementation and analysis of Community policies. Its statistical products and services are also of great value to Europe’s business community, professional organisations, academics, librarians, NGOs, the end-parts of chapters 6 and 7 and the boxes: DG EMPL (Ettore Marchetti); media and citizens. Part II (Borderless Europeans): DG EMPL (Ettore Marchetti) Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers Annex on Migration in the Recession: Eurostat (Piotr Juchno and Apolonija Oblak Flander) and DG to your questions about the European Union EMPL (Ettore Marchetti). Country Annexe: DG EMPL (Ettore Marchetti) Freephone number (*): The report could not have been prepared without contributions from 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 Giampaolo Lanzieri (Eurostat) for his populations projections by foreign background; 1 2 the organisations Gallup ( ) and Clandestino ( ), for data on migration intentions and irregular migration; (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed. 3 researchers at the NIDI institute ( ), especially Gijs Beets, Jeannette Schoorl, Nico van Nimwegen and Peter Ekamper, who provided analysis of 'Borderless Europeans'; More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). 4 researchers at the VID institute ( ), especially Dimiter Philipov and Julia Schuster, who provided Cataloguing data as well as an abstract can be found at the end of this publication. analysis of the 'tempo effect' on fertility, long-term effects of migrants on national population structures; Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2011 5 researchers at the MPI-Rostock ( ), especially Sigrun Matthiesen, Jim Vaupel and Harald ISBN 978-92-79-17603-6 Wilkoszewski, who provided the analysis of healthy life expectancy in the box; doi:10.2767/79004 ISSN 1831-9440 Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania) for data and analysis on the relationship between fertility and economic development; members of the Demography Expert Group, who provided feedback on the country summaries. © European Union, 2011 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Any remaining errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors in the European Commission. Printed in Belgium (1) http://www.gallup.com/ (2) http://clandestino.eliamep.gr/ PRINTED ON ELEMENTAL CHLORINE-FREE BLEACHED PAPER (ECF) (3) http://www.nidi.knaw.nl/smartsite.dws?lang=NL&ch=NID&id=2807 (4) http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/ (5) http://www.demogr.mpg.de/ iv iii CONTENTS Summary 1 Überblick 7 Résumé 14 Part I: Main Demographic Trends 25 1. Introduction 27 2. Fertility 28 2.1. Recovery of fertility 28 2.2. Women still postponing births 29 2.3. Revisiting fertility trends 31 3. Mortality 33 3.1. Mortality Trends over the past 30 years 33 3.2. Recent gains in life expectancy 33 4. Migration: Trends 42 4.1. Migration flows 42 5. Migration: Foreign Population 48 5.1. Non-nationals in the EU 48 5.2. Acquiring citizenship of EU Member State 50 5.3. Foreign-born population 51 5.4. Education levels of the foreign-born 54 5.5. Non-nationals younger on average than nationals 57 6. Population Change and Structure 59 6.1. Population growth 59 6.2. Population ageing 62 7. Families 68 7.1. Fewer marriages, more divorces 68 7.2. A rise in births outside marriage 69 7.3. Fertility and the family 69 7.4. Changing household structure 72 Part II: Borderless Europeans 75 1. Introduction 77 2. Migrants across Generations 80 2.1. How migrants shape the structure of EU-27 populations 80 2.2. Integration of migrants and their descendants across generations 82 2.3. How migrants can shape future EU populations 88 3. Moving into and across the EU 91 3.1. Ancestry and life choices 92 3.2. Connectedness and attitudes 94 4. Further Ways of Connecting to other Countries 95 4.1. Commuting across borders 95 4.2. Personal and cultural connections across borders 96 iv v CONTENTS Part III: Annex - Demography and the Recession 99 1. Introduction 101 2. Migration in the Recession 102 Summary 1 2.1. How the recession affected migration 102 Überblick 7 Country Annex 109 0. The European Union 110 1. Belgium 112 Résumé 14 2. Bulgaria 114 3. The Czech Republic 116 4. Denmark 118 Part I: Main Demographic Trends 25 5. Germany 120 1. Introduction 27 6. Estonia 122 2. Fertility 28 7. Ireland 124 8. Greece 126 2.1. Recovery of fertility 28 2.2. Women still postponing births 29 9. Spain 128 2.3. Revisiting fertility trends 31 10. France 130 3. Mortality 33 11. Italy 132 3.1. Mortality Trends over the past 30 years 33 12. Cyprus 134 3.2. Recent gains in life expectancy 33 13. Latvia 136 4. Migration: Trends 42 14. Lithuania 138 4.1. Migration flows 42 15. Luxembourg 140 5. Migration: Foreign Population 48 16. Hungary 142 5.1. Non-nationals in the EU 48 17. Malta 144 5.2. Acquiring citizenship of EU Member State 50 18. The Netherlands 146 5.3. Foreign-born population 51 19. Austria 148 5.4. Education levels of the foreign-born 54 20. Poland 150 5.5. Non-nationals younger on average than nationals 57 21. Portugal 152 6. Population Change and Structure 59 22. Romania 154 6.1. Population growth 59 23.
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