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Low Fertility in Europe

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Low Fertility in Europe CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public INFRASTRUCTURE AND service of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Europe View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND mono- graphs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. BACK PAGE COPY TO BE SUPPLIED Low fertility in Europe The aftermath of the economic crisis of 2008 has undone much of the progress on improving employment and growth in Europe over the last 20 years. Vulnerable groups Low fertility in particular remain at risk of poverty and not being in employment and education, especially in light of trends that have shaped the labour market including changes in educational requirements and the changes in work. in Europe The insights from our analysis and review form a useful input into developing European policy discussions. The review concludes that policy makers should focus more on enabling social policy that allows individuals to achieve their full productive potential Is the and participate in the labour market as a complement to welfare approaches such re still reason to worry? Is there still reason to worry? as social insurance. Evidence from Nordic countries shows that the increased use of enabling social interventions can make an effective contribution to mitigating against social risks such as sustained poverty and long-term unemployment. Moreover, as the review highlights these targeted policies do not need to impact other macroeconomic outcomes or other groups. European action is important. Improving labour force market participation and addressing income inequality across Europe requires a concerted strategy to define the principles in employment and social policy and values and mechanisms that can facilitate effective policy coordination and exchange. It is obvious that Member States Hoo could learn from each other given the differences in income inequality and labour force rens, Clift, Staetsky, Janta, Diepeveen, Morgan Jones and Grant participation rates in Europe. Further improvements also require better information on which particular policy responses are effective. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. MG-1080-RE Stijn Hoorens, Jack Clift, Laura Staetsky, Barbara Janta Stephanie Diepeveen, Molly Morgan Jones, Jonathan Grant R Cover image: istockphoto.com RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not neces- sarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Europe All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 Westbrook Centre, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1YG, United Kingdom RAND URL: http://www.rand.org RAND Europe URL: http://www.rand.org/randeurope To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: +1 310 451 7002; Fax: +1 310 451 6915; Email: [email protected] This report can be downloaded for personal use at no charge from http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1080 Low Fertility in Europe Is there still reason to worry? Stijn Hoorens Jack Clift Laura Staetsky Barbara Janta Stephanie Diepeveen Molly Morgan Jones Jonathan Grant MG-1080 Preface Many European governments have been con- States and beyond, and to researchers who are cerned about falling fertility rates, due to the interested in the relationship between demogra- welfare implications of an ageing population phy and policy. supported by a shrinking workforce. However, RAND Europe is an independent not-for- ‘Doomsday’ scenarios of fertility spiralling down- profit policy research organisation that aims to wards and European populations imploding have improve policy and decision making in the public not yet materialised; indeed, recent snapshots of interest, through research and analysis. RAND indicators for childbearing suggest some recovery Europe’s clients include European governments, in fertility. Therefore, RAND Europe decided to institutions, non-governmental organisations and update its 2004 study into the causes and conse- firms with a need for rigorous, independent, mul- quences of low fertility in Europe. tidisciplinary analysis. This report has been peer- This monograph, which has been funded by reviewed in accordance with RAND’s quality RAND Europe’s Board of Trustees, presents the assurance standards. findings of this update. We have analysed the latest For more information about RAND Europe or data, reviewed the recent literature, and examined this document, please contact: the situation in Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the UK in depth. The study aimed to address Stijn Hoorens the following questions. Email: [email protected] 1. Is fertility really recovering, to what extent and RAND Europe where? Westbrook Centre 2. If so, what are the underlying reasons for this Milton Road trend? Cambridge CB4 1YG 3. What are the key differences between different United Kingdom regions and, within countries, between differ- Tel. +44 (0)1223 353329 ent groups in the population? 4. What are the consequences for policy? Do we RAND Europe need to adjust the conclusions in the 2004 37 Square de Meeûs report? 1000 Brussels This monograph should be of interest to poli- Belgium cymakers in the European Commission, Member Tel. +32 2791 7535 Contents Preface .................................................................................................................................. iii List of figures ...................................................................................................................... vii List of tables ........................................................................................................................ viii Summary .............................................................................................................................. ix Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... xv CHapTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 CHapTER 2 Demographic trends: what the data tell us ............................................................. 7 CHapTER 3 Drivers of fertility: what the literature tells us ....................................................... 15 CHapTER 4 Case study: Germany ....................................................................................................... 27 CHapTER 5 Case study: Poland ........................................................................................................... 35 CHapTER 6 Case study: Spain .............................................................................................................. 45 CHapTER 7 Case study: Sweden ......................................................................................................... 53 CHapTER 8 Case study: United Kingdom ......................................................................................... 61 vi Low fertility in Europe CHapTER 9 Conclusions and implications for policy .................................................................... 71 References ........................................................................................................................... 79 Appendices .......................................................................................................................... 91 Appendix A: The potential consequences of population ageing ....................... 91 Appendix B: The other drivers of population dynamics
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