Low Fertility and Population Ageing
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CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CIVIL JUSTICE service of the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE Jump down to document6 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS POPULATION AND AGING The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY organization providing objective analysis and effective SUBSTANCE ABUSE solutions that address the challenges facing the public TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY and private sectors around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY Support RAND Browse RAND Books and Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Europe View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND mono- graphs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Low Fertility and Population Ageing Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options Jonathan Grant, Stijn Hoorens, Suja Sivadasan, Mirjam van het Loo, Julie DaVanzo, Lauren Hale, Shawna Gibson, William Butz Prepared for the European Commission The research described in this report was conducted by RAND Europe. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the European Commission, Directorate-General for Employment and Social Affairs. The report remains an intellectual property of the Commission. The RAND Corporation funded the publication of this report with money it earned or raised from donors. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 European Commission All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the copyright holder. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 Newtonweg 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands Grafton House, 64 Maids Causeway, Cambridge CB5 8DD, United Kingdom Uhlandstraße 14, 10623 Berlin, Germany RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ RAND Europe URL: http://www.rand.org/randeurope To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This report, which has been prepared for and funded by the Employment and Social Affairs Directorate General of the European Commission, presents the findings of a study of how policies are interacting with demographic trends to influence social cohesion and other socio- demographic outcomes. The main objectives of the study are to assess the following. • To what degree and in what way are micro-level decisions with respect to marriage and cohabitation, family formation, migration, and labour force participation influenced by social and economic developments at the macro-level? • What are the effects of the choices made by individuals and households on the size and age structure of the population? • Which policy options are available to change the population structure and to mitigate negative socio-economic consequences of a changing population? The study includes a literature review, an analysis of demographic trends and social indicators for the 15 Member States and 10 Applicant Countries, and case studies of five countries which focus on the relationship between demographic and social change on the one hand, and on policies on the other. This report should be of interest to policymakers in the European Commission, Member States and Applicant Countries, and to researchers who are interested in the relationship between demography and policy. RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that serves the public interest by improving policymaking and informing public debate. Its clients are European governments, institutions, and firms with a need for rigorous, impartial, multidisciplinary analysis of the hardest problems that they face. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND’s quality assurance standards, and therefore is presented as a RAND and RAND Europe product. For more information about RAND Europe or this project, please contact: Martijn van der Mandele or Jonathan Grant President Associate Programme Director RAND Europe RAND Europe Cambridge Newtonweg 1 Grafton House 2333 CP Leiden 64 Maids Causeway The Netherlands Cambridge, CB5 8DD, UK Tel: +31 71 524 5151 Tel: +44 (0) 1223 353329 Fax: +31 71 524 5191 Fax: +44 (0) 1223 358845 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] iii Contents Preface............................................................................................................................iii Figures.............................................................................................................................ix Tables ..............................................................................................................................xi Boxes ...............................................................................................................................xi Summary........................................................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments............................................................................................................xix CHAPTER ONE.............................................................................................................. 1 The European Demographic Context – Study Goals and Methods..................................... 1 The Setting ....................................................................................................................... 1 Conceptual Framework...................................................................................................... 2 Objectives of the Study ...................................................................................................... 5 Method ............................................................................................................................ 5 Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 6 Data Review................................................................................................................. 6 Case Studies ................................................................................................................. 6 Organisation of Report....................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO ............................................................................................................. 9 What the Literature Shows – Relationships in the Conceptual Model and the Effects of Policies ............................................................................................................... 9 Influences on Fertility and Family Formation and on International Migration .......................... 9 Influences on Fertility and Family Formation................................................................... 9 Influences on Immigration............................................................................................13 Influences of Fertility, Family Formation, and Migration on the Population Structure .............15 Influences of the Population Structure on Social Cohesion....................................................16 Political or Legal Aspects ...............................................................................................16 Economic Aspects ........................................................................................................17 Social Aspects ..............................................................................................................18 Environmental Aspects .................................................................................................18 Specific Policy Measures....................................................................................................18 Terminology................................................................................................................18 Economic Policy ..........................................................................................................20 Gender Policy..............................................................................................................21 Education Policy ..........................................................................................................22