The Potential Crisis of Population Ageing and Low Fertility: GEMTEE Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium used in Population Forecasts and Analysis Hsing-Chun Lin* Associate Professor, Department of Applied Economics, National Chiayi University, E-mail address:
[email protected] Huey-Lin Lee Associate Professor,Department of Economics, National Chengchi University E-mail address:
[email protected] Po-Chi Chen Associate Professor,Department of International Business, Chung Hua University E-mail address:
[email protected] Sheng-Ming Hsu Ph. D. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University, E-mail address:
[email protected] Kuo-Jung Lin Professor, Department of International Trade, Chihlee Institute of Technology E-mail address:
[email protected] Duu-Hwa Lee Associate Professor, Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean Unoversity E-mail address:
[email protected] Ching-Cheng Chang, Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, and Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University, Email:
[email protected] Shih-Shun Hsu Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, National Taiwan University, E-mail address:
[email protected] * Corresponding author. Associate Professor, Department of Applied Economics, National Chiayi University. 580 Sinmin Road, Chiayi, 600, Taiwan. E-mail:
[email protected]. Tel: 886-5-2732858. Fax: 886-5-2732853. Residual errors are ours alone. 1 Abstract Based on the Cohort-Component Method, the Department of Manpower Planning, Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) (2012) made population projections through the assumptions of fertility, mortality, and migration to calculate future population by age and gender groups, and took economic factors as exogenous variables.