World Population Ageing 2019 Highlights ST/ESA/SER.A/430 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Ageing 2019 Highlights United Nations New York, 2019 The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international community with timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development outcomes for all countries and areas of the world. To this end, the Division undertakes regular studies of population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration). Founded in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population and development issues to the United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development. It also leads or participates in various interagency coordination mechanisms of the United Nations system. The work of the Division also contributes to strengthening the capacity of Member States to monitor population trends and to address current and emerging population issues. Notes The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The term “country” as used in this report also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. This report is available in electronic format on the Division’s website at www.unpopulation.org. For further information about this report, please contact the Office of the Director, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, 10017, USA, by Fax: 1 212 963 2147 or by email at [email protected]. Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Ageing 2019: Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/430). Official symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with numbers, as illustrated in the above citation. Front cover photo credit: “Family vacation at Cameron Highlands, Malaysia”, 2019, UN/Nicole Mun Sim Lai Back cover photo credit: “Two chess players enjoying an outdoor game in New York City’s Central Park “, 1976, UN Photo/Grunzweig Published by the United Nations Sales No.: E. 20.XIII.5 ISBN: 978-92-1-148325-3 eISBN: 978-92-1-004553-7 Copyright © 2019 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ Rethinking population ageing in the SDG era According to World Population Prospects 2019 (United Nations, 2019), by 2050, 1 in 6 people in the world will be over the age of 65, up from 1 in 11 in 2019. All societies in the world are in the midst of this longevity revolution—some are at its early stages and some are more advanced. But all will pass through this extraordinary transition, in which the chance of surviving to age 65 rises from less than 50 per cent—as was the case in Sweden in the 1890s—to more than 90 per cent at present in countries with the highest life expectancy. What is more, the proportion of adult life spent beyond age 65 increased from less than a fifth in the 1960s to a quarter or more in most developed countries today. These changes for individuals are mirrored in societal changes: older persons are a growing demographic group in society. Older people account for more than one fifth of the population in 17 countries today, and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division’s projections to the end of the century indicate that this will be the case in 2100 for 155 countries, covering a majority (61 per cent) of the world’s population. Traditionally, the United Nations and most researchers have used measures and indicators of population ageing that are mostly or entirely based on people’s chronological age, defining older persons as those aged 60 or 65 years or over. This provides a simple, clear and easily replicable way to measure and track various indicators of population ageing. However, there has been increasing recognition that the mortality risks, health status, type and level of activity, productivity and other socioeconomic characteristics of older persons have changed significantly in many parts of the world over the last century, and, in particular, in the last few decades. This has led to the development of alternative concepts and measures to offer a more nuanced perspective of what population ageing means in different contexts. New measures and concepts of population ageing have significant implications for assessing the living conditions and living arrangements of older persons, their productive and other contributions to society and their needs for social protection and health care. These new approaches to understanding and measuring ageing also carry important implications for the review of internationally agreed development goals, including those contained in the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (MIPAA) and, most recently, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Contents Rethinking population ageing in the SDG era ................................................... iii World Population Ageing 2019: Key messages ..................................................... 1 Introduction �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3 Global and regional trends in population ageing ............................................. 5 Measures of population ageing .............................................................................11 How does population ageing affect assets, transfers and work? ���������������21 Policy implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals ..27 References ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������29 Annex table �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������31 World Population Ageing 2019: Highlights 1 World Population Ageing 2019: Key messages 1. Population ageing is a global phenomenon: are becoming older in all regions of the Virtually every country in the world is world. The old-age dependency ratio, the experiencing growth in the size and number of persons aged 65 years or above proportion of older persons in their relative to number of persons aged 20 to 64 population. There were 703 million persons years, is projected to more than double in aged 65 years or over in the world in 2019. The Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Latin America number of older persons is projected to double and the Caribbean, Northern Africa and to 1.5 billion in 2050. Globally, the share of the Western Asia, and Central and Southern Asia. population aged 65 years or over increased from 6 per cent in 1990 to 9 per cent in 2019. 5. New measures of population ageing That proportion is projected to rise further to based on prospective age (years of life 16 per cent by 2050, so that one in six people in remaining), with a dynamic threshold of “old the world will be aged 65 years or over. age” that rises progressively with increasing life expectancy, point toward a slower 2. Population ageing has been fastest in process of population ageing than what is Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and Latin indicated by the conventional measures. For America and the Caribbean. The percentage example, the prospective old-age dependency of the population aged 65 years or over almost ratio is rising more slowly than the old-age doubled from 6 per cent in 1990 to 11 per cent dependency ratio in all regions of the world. in 2019 in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and from 5 per cent in 1990 to 9 per cent in 2019 6. Indicators that incorporate both demo- in Latin America and the Caribbean. Between graphic and economic information suggest 2019 and 2050, the share of older persons is that the extent of population ageing projected at least to double in four regions: depends on age-patterns of production Northern Africa and Western Asia, Central and consumption. The economic old-age and Southern Asia, Latin America and the dependency ratio, which integrates measured Caribbean, and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. levels of consumption and production by age, shows that population ageing has the greatest 3. Throughout most