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Long-Term Contribution of Migration in Ageing Populations: Japan Compared with Europe Giampaolo Lanzieri Rilis Augiati Siscilit Venis Siscilit Augiati Rilis Nim

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Long-Term Contribution of Migration in Ageing Populations: Japan Compared with Europe Giampaolo Lanzieri Rilis Augiati Siscilit Venis Siscilit Augiati Rilis Nim ISSNISSN 1681-4789 2315-0807 Exer in vulla faci blamconse euis nibh el utat dip ex elestisim el dip utat nibh euis blamconse faci Exer vulla in Statistical working papers Long-term contribution of migration in ageing populations: Japan compared with Europe Giampaolo Lanzieri Rilis augiati siscilit venis nim Rilis augiati siscilit venis 2013 edition 2013 edition 2013 Statistical working papers Long-term contribution of migration in ageing populations: Japan compared with Europe Giampaolo Lanzieri 20201313 editionedition Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013 ISBN 978-92-79-32339-3 ISSN 2315-0807 doi:10.2785/29184 Cat. No: KS-TC-13-001-EN-N Theme: Population and social conditions Collection: Statistical working papers © European Union, 2013 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Table of contents Abstract0B ........................................................................................................................... 40H Introduction1B ..................................................................................................................... 41H Previous9B related studies and current contribution ..................................................................... 52H Data10B sources and geographic coverage ................................................................................... 73H A2B description of past and future demographic trends in Japan and Europe ................... 84H Assumptions1B about the future course of fertility, mortality and migration .................................. 95H Number12B of events and age structures ..................................................................................... 106H Changing13B age structures ......................................................................................................... 127H The3B main factors of population dynamics in Japan ....................................................... 138H Further14B insights on the past natural change ............................................................................ 169H Population15B momentum ............................................................................................................ 1710H Contribution16B of fertility and mortality to population ageing ...................................................... 181H Projections,17B assumptions and future population size .............................................................. 1912H Projections,18B assumptions and future population ageing ......................................................... 2013H Ageing:19B a ‘new’ demographic transition? ................................................................................ 2114H And4B if…? — Thinking of different future scenarios ....................................................... 2215H Japan20B converging with European countries .................................................................................. 2216H A21B short-term rejuvenation input ............................................................................................... 2417H Partial2B replacement migration .................................................................................................. 2518H The5B contribution of migration to the composition of the future population .................... 2619H The23B states space ..................................................................................................................... 2620H Population24B of foreign citizenship .............................................................................................. 2721H Population25B of foreign background ............................................................................................ 282H The26B challenge of the integration of migrants ........................................................................... 2823H Conclusions6B .................................................................................................................. 3224H References7B ................................................................................................................... 3425H Acknowledgements8B and disclaimer .............................................................................. 3726H Long-term contribution of migration in ageing populations: Japan compared with Europe 3 Abstract This paper looks at past and projected demographic trends in Japan in comparison to European countries to highlight similarities and differences between these low-fertility, ageing populations. The role and impact of the two demographic options (fertility and migration) to counteract the prospected population decline and ageing in Japan are analysed by means of formal demography results and multistate projections. After assessing the important but limited potential of the contribution of fertility, the study quantifies the consequences of various assumptions about immigration on the composition of its future population and compares those results with European prospects. It is shown that, within the range of the currently foreseeable assumptions, only a migration inflow comparable to that currently taking place towards Europe would avoid excessive population decline and ageing in Japan, but with a relevant diversification of its composition of the population. Within five decades, the population of foreign background would be particularly important in the younger age groups, where its share could reach from 10 % to 30 % of the population, depending on future inflows. Introduction Several countries in the world are now All of these approaches have supporters and experiencing, or are going to experience, detractors. Decisions relating to childbearing are population age structures never seen before. An often considered as belonging to the private ever-increasing life expectancy combined with sphere of the individual, and therefore out of the below-replacement levels of fertility is reach of policy actions. On the other hand, modifying the shape of the age profile of the national policies could be addressed to ensure population from the well-known and traditional favourable conditions for fertility, helping those pyramid, with the larger younger cohorts at the who aspire to larger family sizes to meet their bottom, to an almost reversed pyramid, where wishes. However, any increase in fertility would the larger cohorts are among the elderly. The need at least a couple of decades before process of ageing, as measured by any indicator, becoming ‘visible’ to the labour market. is expected to be particularly relevant in Migration is therefore often proposed as a quick selected European countries and in East Asia, and readily available solution to shortages in the notably in Japan. labour force. Migratory flows may actually take place without any specific action or will by the According to the latest projections from host country. Historical events or contingent Eurostat (the Statistical Office of the European economic situations, in both the country of Union) and from the National Institute of origin and the destination country, as well as Population and Social Security Research of particular geographical location, have seen Japan, the ageing of the population may speed some European countries experience sudden up in the near future, driven by the ageing of the rises in the flow of immigration in the recent baby boomer generation. This ageing may be past. In fact, EU Member States and Japan have accompanied by a shrinking of the population different migration histories: over recent size, with further repercussions on the potential decades, the former have gradually transformed labour force, which may no longer be sufficient themselves from sending to receiving countries, to support economic growth. The demographic migration becoming an — if not the most — solutions envisaged by the countries affected important component of population change; the may differ in this regard, but essentially they are latter has always recorded low levels of aiming to increase fertility levels and/or migration, its population growth being increase the flow of immigration. An alternative supported by the vital events so far. approach, which would tackle the socio- economic challenges of a shrinking and ageing However, the impact of migration on the population without attempting to influence the composition of their populations has not yet components of population change (either natural been thoroughly analysed. In fact, in addition to change or net migration), is not usually the arithmetical increase of the population size perceived as an option, or such adaptations are due to the arrival of immigrants, their simply left to demographic inertia. contribution to demographic changes via Long-term contribution of migration in ageing populations: Japan compared with Europe 4 fertility and mortality also needs to be demographic trends in the international considered. As migrants are usually younger literature of comparative regional studies is less than natives, such a contribution becomes more easily seen for East Asia, although studies do and more
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