Paper to be presented in the 28th International Population Conference of IUSSP to be held at Cape Town, South Africa, October 29- November 4, 2017.
Ageing Population and Replacement Migration: A Case Study of Kerala
Arun Perumbilavil Anand Research Scholar Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Mumbai, India.
Abstract Kerala is one of the states in India which ranks highest with respect to social and human indices. The 2011 census reveals that 60+ age group constitutes about 12.6% of the state’s total population as against 8.6% that of India and it is estimated that by 2061 this share would increase to 40% of the state’s population. These changes in the population structure have brought in significant implications on the socio-economic and cultural milieu of the state. As a result, the state is currently experiencing the phenomenon of replacement migration whereby the shortage of labour borne out of demographic transition, ageing population and out-migration is met by labourers from other parts of the country. This increasing influx of migrant workers have already started creating turbulences in different spheres of Kerala. In this context, the study tries to unveil the reasons that are responsible for the evolution of replacement migration, along with the consequences resulting out of it. For meeting the objectives, the study makes use of data from Census and other secondary sources and also, it incorporates a field element whereby the interviews are conducted with various stakeholders to analyse the impact and implications emerging out of the ageing population and labour in-migration.
Keywords: Ageing, Kerala, Interstate migrants, Replacement migration.
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Introduction
An absolute static population exists nowhere in this world. The movement of people in search of better living conditions and a more secure environment is as old as human civilisation. Such movements not only transform the lives of the migrants profoundly but also lead to significant economic and social changes both at the place of origin and destination of the migrants. The expansion and developments in the transport and communication sectors along with industrialisation have paved the way for large-scale movements of people from villages to towns, from towns to other towns and from one country to another country in search of new job opportunities and avenues. Industrialisation has widened the gap between rural and urban areas, inducing a shift of the workforce towards industrialising areas (Arun and Ajay, 2017). Moreover, the ongoing process of globalization has given a stimulus to human mobility across the world (World Migration Report, 2013).
In the past few decades, the world has witnessed an alarming increase in the number of migrants. As per the latest UN reports it is estimated that migrants constitute about 232 million people or 3.2 per cent1 of the world's population. The relentless migration of human beings has given rise to many new forms of explaining the phenomenon like step migration2, circular migration3, replacement migration, seasonal migration4 etc. (World Migration Report, 2008).
The phenomenon or the concept of replacement migration is of recent origin. The imminent decline along with ageing populations in some countries and regions of the world generated a widespread apprehension among the intellectuals on the lack of enough working-age population or people to meet the required labour force of these countries. Looking into the definitional aspects, United Nations with respect to international migration defines replacement migration as ‘the migration that would be needed to offset declines in the size of population, the declines in the population of working age, as well as to offset the overall ageing of a population’ (United Nations, 2000). From the perspective of internal migration, it is the internal movement of workers to the “vacuum”
1 Can be accessed at http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/number-of-international-migrants- rises.html 2 Step migration refers to mobility from an original residence to first one and then another destination, e.g. in a “stepwise” or sequential fashion. 3 Circular migration is variously defined, but generally refers to recurrent movement between two countries. 4 Seasonal migration refers to the process of moving for a period of time in response to labor or climate conditions.
Page | 2 created by workers departing for another country, which is filled by workers from other parts within the country (World Migration Report, 2008).
From a demographical point, replacement migration is the migration needed for a region to achieve a particular objective (demographic, economic or social). In general, it is said that replacement migration is a process undertaken to avoid the decline in the total population and decline of the working age population. For a study conducted by Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram on replacement migration, they came up with an operational definition for a replacement migrant and defined replacement migrants as temporary workers who come to Kerala from other states of India to take up work especially in construction, non-agricultural production and service sectors. They are called replacement migrants as they are thought to be replacing Kerala workers who emigrated to the Gulf countries and other parts of the globe5. Kerala is one of the few regions in the country that is undergoing this phenomenon and has gained the attention of many scholars in the recent past.
Statement of the Problem
Kerala is one of the states in India which ranks highest with respect to social and human indices. Migration in Kerala is a recent phenomenon, which accentuated after country’s independence. The mass migration of labour from the state was due to the loss in the agricultural sector, lack of sufficient employment opportunities, the spread of education and attainment of high health parameters, which finally lead to a demographic transition resulting in an expansion of the population in the working-age group. The 2011 census reveals that 60+ age group constitutes about 12.6% of the state’s total population as against 8.6% that of India and by 2061, it is estimated that this share would increase to 40% of Kerala’s population. These changes in the population structure have brought in significant implications on the socio-economic and cultural milieu of the state. As a result, the state is currently experiencing the phenomenon of replacement migration whereby the shortage of labour borne out of demographic transition, ageing population and out-migration is compensated by labourers from other parts of the country.Today, Kerala has one of highest wage
5 This definition can be accessed at http://www.cds.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MOIAACTIVITYREPORT 2006-2011.pdf
Page | 3 rates in the country across different sectors6. Rajan and James (2007) opined large scale emigration of people from the state in search of jobs has created a scarcity of labour in the state, particularly physical labour which has been filled up by the migrants from other regions, leading to replacement migration. Thus, the phenomenon of replacement migration assumes a great necessity in viewing it from not only demographic and economic point of view but also from other empirical angles transcending social, cultural and political spheres.
Objectives of the Study
Given the above background, the present study intends to unfurl the origin, process and growth of replacement migration by highlighting through the specific context of the emerging issues in the state of Kerala and the stated objectives of the study are as follows: 1) To understand the phenomenon of migration in the state of Kerala;
2) To identify the reasons that are responsible for the evolution of replacement migration in the state of Kerala; 3) To identify the consequences resulting out of this phenomenon in the state.
Research Methodology
For meeting the objectives, the study primarily depends on the secondary data sources and also, incorporates a small field element to have a better understanding of the ground realities. The findings of the study are based on the data obtained from Census Commission, CDS survey reports (Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram), SRS (Sample Registration System) reports and other secondary sources. Also, to capture the ground realities, it incorporates a field element, whereby the interviews are conducted with various stakeholders who work in tandem with the interstate migrant workers to analyse the impact and implications emerging out of labour in-migration in the state.
Migration in India Internal migration is considered to be an important element of population redistribution and equilibrium. While international migration has received more attention in recent debates on migration, internal migration is far more significant in terms of the numbers of people involved
6Report on Wage Rates in Rural India, Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India. Accessed at http://labourbureau.nic.in/ Wage_Rates_Rural_India_2008_09.pdf
Page | 4 and perhaps even the quantum of remittances and poverty reduction potential of these. According to Bilsborrow (1998), internal migration is defined as population movement across a political or administrative boundary, which entails a change of usual residence.
When we look at migration from closer angles, there exists a primary difference in the migration process in the developing countries with that of the developed nations. According to Deshingkar and Grimm (2004), in countries like India migration is adopted as a routine livelihood strategy and not merely as a response to the shocks. In a study by Mukherji, (1991) on “Inter-state migration and regional disparities in India” found that in India, even in recent times, inter-state migration of the males for employment, (as well as of females) is still very much linked with the underdevelopment, poverty, spatial disorganization, regional disparities, social inequalities, rural stagnation, rural neglect and unbalanced regional development over national space. Until the middle of 20th century the volume of inter-state migration was comparatively lower in India due to predominance of agriculture, rigidity imposed by the caste system, existence of joint family system, language and cultural barriers, lack of education and difference in food habits (Chaterjee and Bose, 1997; Nair and Narain, 1985). Since independence, with the rapid transformation of the Indian economy, improvement in the level of education and that of transport and communication facilities, the shift of workforce from agriculture to industry and other tertiary activities accelerated mobility among Indians. In India, as per census records of 2001, about 307 million persons (about 30% of the total population) have been reported as migrants by place of birth. Out of them about 259 million (84.2%), migrated from one part of the state to another, i.e., from one village or town to another village or town and 42 million (2%) from outside the country. As per 2001 Census, the data on migration by last residence shows that the total number of migrants has been 314 million. Out of these migrants by last residence, 268 million (85%) has been intra-state migrants, those who migrated from one area of the state to another 41 million (13%) were interstate migrants and 5.1 million (1.6%) migrated from outside of the country.
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An Overview of the Phenomenon of Migration in Kerala
Migration from Kerala to the other states in India and countries outside has now become so rampant that its impact is felt in every aspect of life in the state (Zachariah et al., 2001). Migration has brought in profound impact on the socio-economic, political and cultural aspects of the state in the past 40 years. Though the state enjoyed a tradition of having trade relations with West and Arab world, dating back to periods even before the birth of Christ, the population of the state had a non-migrating nature. Literature indicates that the people of the state lead a contented and peaceful life under the patronage of local rulers and this factor discouraged them from venturing out of their state boundaries. However, under the reign of Britishers, the situation began to change and they permitted the emigration of Indian labour to countries like Sri Lanka, Burma, Fiji, Malaya, Singapore etc. to work in their plantations and factories. Until the beginning of World War II, Kerala was a net-in-migration state, as it attracted labour force and traders in large numbers from the neighbouring area, mainly the Madras Presidency. In earlier periods, migration of Keralites to other parts of India were mostly confined to people from Malabar area, which was the part of Madras presidency and where living conditions were less favourable than in the princely states of Travancore and Cochin (Joseph, 2001).
After World War II, followed by Indian independence in 1947, the educated natives (Keralites) started to venture out to other parts of the country especially to the cities like Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta etc. in search of new avenues. The lack of employment opportunities and expansion of education in the state compelled the educated to move out in search of new horizons. So one can say that since 1947 the state became a major source of net out-migration. Based on the analysis of census reports, Joseph (2001) points out that till the end of nineteenth century Keralites were basically home-bound people, following simple mode of life and following the social constraints imposed by the society. But with the passage of time, the forces of constraints weakened and the economy of the state entered into a new trajectory of development and “migration also ensued as a concomitant to the process of development” (ibid). Though the number was not by and large high at the beginning, but the upward social mobility and the economic stability of these families became an element of inspiration for others in moulding their lives.
As mentioned earlier, prior to independence, emigration from Kerala was confined to countries like Malaya, Burma, Singapore etc. But the oil boom that started in the Arab countries during the
Page | 6 early 1970s ended up in large-scale emigration of Keralites to these countries, which can be counted as the beginning of a new saga in the history of the state. Kerala entered into an age of extensive emigration during the 1970s and “most sections and communities in Kerala, except the poorest, the most educated, and yes, the most affluent, have participated in the migration process” (Nair, 1986).The decline in growth rate during the 1970s was contributed to partly by decline in fertility and partly by net out-migration. Kerala has been a net out-migration State from the 1930s, and the rate of net out-migration reached its peak during 1981-91 (Kerala Development Report, 2005). At present, “Kerala is becoming too much dependent on migration for employment, sustenance, housing, household amenities, institution building and many other development activities” (Zachariah and Kannan, 2002).
Table 1: Growth in the Number of Emigrants from Kerala, 1998-2011
Growth in the Number of Emigrants, 1998-2011
Year of Survey No. of Emigrants (in million) Percentage Increase
1998 1.36 _____
2003 1.84 35.29
2008 2.19 19.02
2011 2.28 4.11
Source: Compiled from various Kerala Migration Survey Reports 1998, 2008 & 2011, CDS.
The table (Table 1) above represents the number of emigrants from Kerala during different periods of time estimated through different surveys conducted by Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram. It can be observed that over the years, the number of emigrants increased significantly though there is a rapid decline in numbers during 2011, which can be attributed to the global economic recession. For the first time, the Government of Kerala conducted a Pravasi
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Census (Census on Non-resident Keralites) in May 2013, and they estimated the number of Keralites living abroad to be 16256537, of which 90 per cent are working in Gulf countries.
The outmigration of labour from Kerala to the Gulf countries and its impact at the local level is well known (Sekher, 1997). This coupled with the recent upsurge in the hospitality and realty sectors has crafted a construction sector boom in the region’s economy. While looking at the phenomenon of Kerala’s massive Gulf emigration, thus evolved and flourished from the latter half of the twentieth century onwards, it is obvious that in the initial phase the emigrants were predominantly non-agricultural labourers with low educational attainments. Nevertheless, the emigration of labour did not create any major hurdles and conspicuous deficiencies in the home economy in the early phase, but in later the continuous emigration resulted in a scarcity of labour especially in the construction sector, which was followed inevitably by a hike in the wage rate (Prakash, 1998). Interestingly, at present, Kerala has the highest wage rates among the states in India8.
The chronic shortage of labour felt in the construction sector in Kerala and the resultant higher wage rates received the attention of workers from other states and they started flocking Kerala in large numbers. This has opened a new era of replacement migration to Kerala as the state once again becoming a fertile ground for migrating population after a break of about 60 years since the 1960s. Though initially, the migrants were primarily from the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu and that mostly characterised seasonal and short-duration migration, at a later period the state started getting migrants from far distant states like Bihar, Assam and West Bengal. As Rajan and James (2007) observed, the era of in-migration of labourer to the state is largely stimulated by “…emigration of workers from Kerala, demographic contraction of the supply of young workers brought about by the rapid demographic transition in the state, the higher wages charged by Kerala workers, the ability of Kerala workers to sustain themselves with remittances from relatives, the reluctance on the part of Kerala workers to do dirty and hard physical work”9. At present, they are replacing not only Gulf emigrant workers but also population deficits caused by the rapid fertility
7 Pravasi Malayali Census, Economics and Statistics Department, Government of Kerala. Can be accessed at http://www.ecostat.kerala.gov.in/docs/pdf/reports/adhoc/pravasi/pravasi_mal_cen_vol1.pdf 8 Report on Wage Rates in Rural India, Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India. Accessed at http://labourbureau.nic.in/Wage_Rates_Rural_India_2008_09.pdf 9 Demographic Transition and Economic Development in Kerala: The Role of Emigration, Project Report submitted as part of the MIR Study to the SANEI, 2007.
Page | 8 decline in Kerala which begun since the late 1960s. In recent years, replacement migrants account for a significant proportion of workers in several sectors, especially among casual labourers in the construction sector.
This migratory movement of labourers, in turn, evokes a far-reaching impact on the social, cultural and economic milieu of Kerala. It is certain that this emigration has brought considerable changes or more accurately a drastic improvement in the economic status of majority households through the regular inflow of remittances. On the other hand, it has a flip side too - the continuous and ever-increasing influx of migrant workers had already started creating minor turbulences in the socio-economic and cultural sphere of Kerala, thereby putting its multidimensional perspectives at stake.
A survey based study conducted by Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation on behalf of the Department of Labour and Rehabilitation, Government of Kerala in 2013 estimated that there are over 25 lakhs inter-state migrants currently employed in the state with an annual arrival rate of 2.35 lakhs. This number constitutes about 9% of the State’s total population. Moreover, the study also estimated that about Rs. 17,500 crores move out of the State in the form of remittances made by migrant labourers to their home states annually.
Kerala and Replacement Migration
Though the phenomena of replacement migration is a recent one, the reasons that resulted in its culmination are multi-dimensional and are not of a sudden origin. With respect to Kerala, one can point out two main reasons for this change, one is the changes in the population structure over the time and the other being the emigration to the Gulf countries. To understand this transition phase in a more nuanced manner, the following concepts have to be dealt in detail with respect to the State. They are 1) Demographic profile 2) Population size and decadal growth rate 3) Age-wise distribution of population 4) Changing age structure 5) Population pyramid 6) Demographic transition
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7) Migration
Demographic Profile of the State
The state of Kerala, located in the south-west part of India in its present form, was formed in 1956 as part of the linguistic reorganisation of the Indian States by merging the three Malayalam- speaking regions. It has a land area of 38,863 sq. km, stretching 580 km in length and 30-130 km in breadth. While in terms of area, Kerala forms only 1.1 per cent of India, its population (as of Census 2011) of 33.4 million accounts for 2.76 per cent of India’s population. According to the recent census reports the state ranks ninth position in terms of population in the country. When it comes to population composition, about 52 per cent of state’s population is constituted by females and the remaining 48 per cent by males. Population density in Kerala is 840 persons per sq. km, one of the highest in the country.
One of the characteristic feature of Kerala’s demographic structure is the total fertility rate (1.8 per woman) which is below the replacement level (2.1 per woman). State’s demography is also skewed in favour of women, which according to the latest census was measured as 1084 females per 1000 males. It can be observed that throughout the census period, the proportion of the population was always in favour of females rather than to males. Kerala’s unique settlement pattern and wider infrastructure development makes it difficult to see the differences between urban and rural areas and there is a strong rural-urban continuum in all along the state. Of the total population, urban dwellers figures to 15.9 million which is about 48 per cent of the whole population and rural populace constitute 17.5 million10.
10 Can be accessed at http://nrega.net/pin/reports-and-resources/reports-submitted-to-the-ministry-of-rural- development/reports-28-jan-2010/gandhi-gram-university/Kerala%20An%20Overview.pdf
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Population Size and Decadal Growth Rate Table 2: Population Size and Decadal Growth Rate of Kerala and India, 1901-2011
Population Size and Decadal Growth Rate, 1901- 2011: Kerala & India
Population (in million) Decadal Growth Rate (%) Census Year Kerala India Kerala India 1901 6.36 238.39 ______1911 7.15 252.09 11.75 5.75 1921 7.80 251.32 9.16 -0.31 1931 9.51 272.92 21.85 11.00 1941 11.03 318.66 16.04 14.22 1951 13.55 361.09 22.82 13.31 1961 16.90 439.23 24.76 21.64 1971 21.35 548.16 26.69 24.80 1981 25.45 683.33 19.24 24.66 1991 29.09 843.39 14.32 23.86 2001 31.84 1027.02 9.42 21.54 2011 33.39 1210.19 4.91 17.64 Source: Various Census Reports
The table above (Table 2) represents the total population and decadal population growth experienced by the state of Kerala and India during the period 1901 to 2011. It is interesting to note that over the last century, both the populations of India and Kerala doubled itself by five times with the state having a slight upper edge over the country in the overall increase.
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Figure 1: Decadal Growth Rate of Kerala and India, 1901-2011
Decadal Population Growth Rate, 1901-2011: Kerala & India 30 26.69 24.76 24.66 25 22.82 23.86 21.85 24.8 19.24 21.54 20 21.64 16.04 17.64
15 14.32 11.75 13.31 9.16 14.22 10 11 9.42 5.75 5 4.91 -0.31
Decadal populationgrowthrate 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 -5 Census year
Kerala India
Source: Various Census Reports
The above graph (Figure 1) depicts the decadal population growth rate experienced by Kerala and India during the period 1901 to 2011. It is important to note that the state’s population growth rate always remained higher than that of the India’s until 1971. Since 1971, the population growth of the state started to decrease drastically marking the onset of demographic transition. Today the state experiences one of the lowest population growth rates in the country, i.e., only 4.91%. It is glaring to note that some districts of Kerala like Idukki (-1.93%) and Pathanamthitta (-3.12%) have stated witnessing population decline as per the recent census records. These records have to be concomitantly read with the recent reports11 indicating that the state sooner or later is going to experience zero or negative population rate.
11 Based on an article published in Times of India dated 28 March 2015, titled “Kerala to become 'zero population growth' state”. The article can be accessed at http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Kerala-to-become-zero- population-growth-state/articleshow/46727534.cms.
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Age-wise Distribution of Population in Kerala
The notable strives achieved by the state in demographic parameters has brought in a number of concerns and challenges along with it. The changes in the fertility and mortality rate over the time has significantly affected the age structure of the state. The table below represents the variations in the age composition of the population of different age groups in Kerala during the last 60 years. Table 3: Age Composition of Population of Kerala, 1951-2011.
Age Composition of Population in Kerala, 1951-2011
Census Year Age Group 1-14 Age Group 15-59 Age Group 60+ Total Population
1951 52.15 (38.48) 79.08 (58.35) 4.29 (3.17) 135.52
1961 72.05 (42.60) 87.12 (51.54) 9.86 (5.8) 169.03
1971 85.95 (40.26) 114.25 (53.52) 13.28 (6.2) 213.48
1981 89.01 (34.97) 146.43 (57.53) 19.1 (7.5) 254.54
1991 86.74 (29.78) 178.74 (61.42) 25.61 (8.8) 290.99
2001 82.96 (26.10) 201.82 (63.38) 33.35 (10.5) 318.41
2011 78.31 (23.47) 213.47 (63.97) 41.93 (12.57) 333.72
2026* 69.88 (18.76) 234.62 (62.98) 68.04 (18.26) 372.54
Source: Compiled from various census reports. * Population projections for India and States 2001-2026, Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner. Note: The figures in the brackets represents the percentage distribution of the particular age group to the total population.
Table 3 gives us a picture of the transitions across different age groups over the last six decades. From the table, it is evident that the decline in the birth rate has significantly reduced the proportion of children to the total population. The proportion of the children in the total population has reduced from 42.6 per cent in 1961 to 23.47 per cent in 2011. Higher concentration of population in the working age group is considered to be a stimulus for the economic growth and financial gains and this scenario as termed as ‘windows of opportunities’, which finally results in the demographic dividend. Currently, the state holds a favourable situation with a high proportion of working age population, but it is evident that with decreasing fertility and increasing life
Page | 13 expectancy, the population is undergoing ageing and its repercussions are being experienced in the state. The share of the 60+ population has also increased four times and the projections show that in near future state is going to witness similar demographic situations that of developed countries like Japan, Germany etc.
A study conducted by CDS on the unique ageing scenario in Kerala estimates that the size of the population in the age group of 60 years and above in the state is expected to increase from 33 lakh in 2001 to 57 lakh in 2021 and finally to 120 lakh in 2061.It is estimated that by 2061, the proportion of the elderly would constitute 40 per cent of Kerala’s total population. Of this, 6.7 per cent would be in the age group 60-69 years; 23.8 per cent in the age group 70-79 years; and 9.1 per cent in the age group of 80 years and above.
Kerala’s Changing Age Structure
Figure 2: Age Structure of Kerala and India, 2011
Age structure of Kerala, 2011 Age Structure of India, 2011 8.61 % 12.57 % 23.47 % 30.87 %
60.52 % 63.97 %
Age Group 0-14 Age Group 15-59 Age Group 60+ Age Group 0-14 Age Group 15-59 Age Group 60+
Source: Compiled from Census Data Tables, 2011. The above figures represent the age wise distribution of the population of Kerala and India under three categories i.e., in the age groups 0-14, 15-59 and above 60. It is evident that the percentage figure of the older population in Kerala is much higher than that of India’s share, which verifies or substantiates the fact that the state is undergoing rapid ageing. On similar lines, by looking at the share of 0-14 age group it can be verified that the state is witnessing a higher fertility decline to that of India. The proportion of the dependent population to the total population is increasing steadily in the state over the years. Moreover, this mandates the state to have a higher resource allocation in different sectors such as pension system, old age homes, health and medical facilities, social security measures etc.
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Population Pyramid
A population pyramid or an age pyramid is a graphical representation of the age-sex distribution of a given population. The population pyramid enables one to easily understand the distribution of population across different age groups and makes interpretation much easier and simpler for a researcher. The figure below represents the graphical age-sex distribution of populations of Kerala and India based on Census 2011 data.
Figure 3: Population Pyramid of Kerala and India
Population Pyramid of Kerala Population Pyramid of India
80+ 80+
70-74 70-74
60-64 60-64
50-54 50-54
40-44 40-44
30-34 30-34
20-24 20-24
10-14 10-14
0-4 0-4 10.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 % Males % Females % Males % Females
Source: Compile from the Census Population Data Tables, 2011.
Looking at population dynamics of Kerala, it can be seen that the age groups 0-4 and 5-9 years is showing a declining trend, and the maximum population is centered around the working age (15- 59 years), which has opened up demographic dividend in the state. Also, one can notice a higher composition of women in the age group 20-44 years as compared to men, thus making the sex ratio favourable towards females over males. Coming to India, it can be seen that the country’s population precisely assigns a pyramidal shape with the majority of the population hovering around 0-29 years, representing a high percentage of young population as contrary to that of
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Kerala’s population. The presence of high percentage of old age population marks the onset of the phenomena of population ageing in the state.
Demographic Transition in Kerala
Birth rates, death rates and infant mortality rates are the parameters used for understanding the stability and health status of a population. As mentioned earlier, demographic transition is marked with the onset of the decrease in both fertility and mortality rates over a period. The figure below is the graphical representation of the crude birth rates (CBR12), crude death rates (CDR13) and infant mortality rates (IMR14) experienced by the state from 1951 to 2011. Figure 5: CBR, CDR and IMR for Kerala, 1951-2011
CBR, CDR and IMR for Kerala, 1951-2011 140 120 120
100
80
58.0 Rate 54.0 60 42.0 40.8 37.0 40 31.1 26.8 25.8 29.0 28.0 25.6 17.4 17.9 17.3 25.1 23.3 17.0 13.0 15.2 14.6 15.2 20 8.4 7.3 20.3 11.0 9.0 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.4 14.0 12.0 12.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.3 6… 6.8 12.07.0 0
Year CBR CDR IMR
Source: Compiled from various SRS Reports
It can be observed from the above graph (Figure 5) that all the three vital demographic parameters (i.e., CBR, CDR and IMR) show a declining trend from 1951 to 2011, with IMR experiencing a significant decrease. Infant mortality rates show a rapid decline from 120 deaths in 1951 to 12 deaths as per the recent SRS reports (2015). This can be attributed to improved health services,
12 CBR is the number of births per 1,000 persons in a population over a given period of time (i.e. 1 year). 13 CDR is the number of deaths per 1,000 persons in a population over a given period of time (i.e. 1 year). 14 Infant mortality rate is the annual number of infant deaths among infants under the age of 1 year divided by the mid- year population of all infants under the age of 1 year.
Page | 16 increase in institutional deliveries, higher immunisation coverage, greater awareness and technological advances. During the same period death rate decreased by 18 points from 25.1 in 1951 to 7 in 2011. The immediate or the proximate causes for the decline in fertility were the increase in the age at marriage and the increased adoption of family planning measures especially sterilization (Zachariah, 1994). Various studies conducted indicate that female literacy, socio- economic changes, increased preference and performance of family planning programme etc. as the factors contributing to this decline (Pillai, 1983 & Zachariah and Kurup, 1984).
With respect to Kerala, one of the striking features of the state’s demographic transition is its achievement without adequate economic backing (State Human Development Report, 2005). It is interesting to note that most of the European and other developed countries had achieved maximum economic growth and development at the time of their transition.The first glimpses into the demographic transition were brought out by the study done by the Centre for Development Studies, in 1975 for the U.N Department of Economic & Social Affairs. The study revealed that Kerala the high levels of literacy and educational attainments along with the spread of health facilities in rural areas had resulted in a sharper decline in the rates of infant mortality and mortality in general. The State Human Development Report (2005) remarked that the State attained these remarkable achievements in demographic transition within a short period. The fact that in Kerala, social development had preceded economic development drew the praise and attention of researchers across the world and this pattern of development, later on, came to known as ‘Kerala Model’ of development.
Consequences of Replacement Migration
As mentioned earlier, migration is a process which not only transforms the lives of the migrants profoundly but also brings in significant social, cultural, political and economic changes both at the regions of origin and destination of migrants. The phenomenon of globalisation has enhanced the mobility of labour across the globe. It is interesting to note that some countries are facing issues related to ageing population and shortage of working population whereas at the same time some countries are at the verge population explosion. So this imbalance in human resources is resolved by transferring human power from a region where it is in excess to a region where it is in scarce till an equilibrium is achieved. The movement of people from one place to another may turn into good or bad as human beings carry their cultural, social, religious or political values along
Page | 17 with them, which may evoke different responses in the host country or region. Even though the phenomena of replacement migration can be observed as a demographic process, but the consequences that it may result can be economical, social, cultural or political.
Primarily, looking from an economic perspective, the changing contours of population composition compel the governments to reset and reallocate the available resources accordingly to meet the needs of the ageing population. The government has to ensure an efficient and effective pension and social security system apart from having good old age homes, developed health and medical infrastructure, facilities etc. Kotowska (2003) studied the impact of population ageing and decline on the labour market. She concludes that there are reserves of the labour force, mainly in the unemployed and in persons in working age but beyond the labour force, especially from the older age groups, in the investigated countries, but labour markets in these countries have to make adjustments to include them in the market. Currently, in Kerala, the government is spending many its resources to run the social security measures, pension system and to meet the needs of its increasing old-aged population. Among all the states in India, Kerala has the highest old-age dependency ratio of 19.6 per cent, without having much differences along the lines of sex and place of residence. Also, the state-wise data on economic independence points at a high dependence rates of rural elderly males in Kerala (43 per cent) as compared to that of rest of India, making the situations worse. Thus, these demographic changes have put a lot of burden on the government exchequer in the form of welfare schemes and programs for the senior citizens.
The second issue is the outward flow of economic resources from the local economy in the form of remittances made by the migrants to their home states. The dependency of the Kerala economy on the Gulf remittances is well acknowledged, and a recent study conducted by Irudaya Rajan and Zachariah estimated that the state receives about Rs. 72,680 crores through foreign remittances. On similar lines, about Rs. 17,500 crores moves out of the state’s economy as remittances made by migrants to their home states annually (Department of Labour, 2013). According to Irudaya Rajan and Zachariah, as a result of replacement migration, “the potential spin-off effects of remittances on employment are benefiting workers outside Kerala more than workers within Kerala”, with much of its remittances being drained off to other States15.
15 Based on an article titled “Shades of Grey” published in Frontline, Vol. 29 dated 11-24, August 2012 , which can be accessed at http://www.frontline.in/static/html/fl2916/stories/20120824291612300.htm
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Castles (2010) argued that the increased use of employment practices such as subcontracting, spurious self-employment, temporary employment, casual work and irregular employment (for instance in domestic service and restaurant work) and the associated growth of informal economies in countries has fuelled (often irregular) migration. The argument made by Castles has proved to be valid as the state has witnessed the evolution of the practice of contractual labour in a more organised and widespread manner with the arrival of migrants. The presence of migrants also resulted in wage differentials between the native worker and migrant worker, where the former are paid higher wages than the later which in turn has resulted in rising resentment in Kerala society as a result of unequal opportunities in the emerging migration market. Large uncontrolled migrant inflows concentrated in time have the potential to exert pressure on the labour market of destination, thereby affecting the integration processes of established native and prior migrant workers in that market and which in extreme cases may lead to rising unemployment (Sónia Pereira, 2013). Also, the arrival of migrant labourers has resulted in the bifurcation of labour market along the lines of the occupational structure as postulated by Micheal J. Piore in his classic work 'Birds of Passage: Migrant Labour and Industrial Societies'. Currently, migrants fill up the lower positions in the job hierarchy and thereby meeting the requirements and demands of the secondary sector of a dual labour market. Thus, they come from outside and remain outside of the social structure in which the job is located and are devoid a place in the social structure/ hierarchy (Piore, 1979).
Coming to political and social issues, while thinking of migration one should not forget about the possible assimilation problems and social tensions which is inherent in the process. No matter how beneficial the inflow of migrants might be, but in practice the migrants themselves turn out to be both politically and socially unpopular group, which makes them more vulnerable to discrimination on both official and unofficial level (Saczuk, 2003). Studies have found that internal migration has an adverse effect on political participation both at the origins and destination of migrants (Akarca and Tansel, 2015). Over the past few years, the involvement of migrants in criminal and unlawful activities has increased considerably in the state of Kerala. The recent crime statistics report released by the Kerala police points out that inter-state migrant workers constitute the second place in committing murders after the politicians. The report highlights the involvement
Page | 19 of migrants on an average in 10 murder cases registered in the state every year16. These incidents have created apprehensions among the natives on their presence in the state. Studies done elsewhere has also shown that migrants may pose a severe threat to law and order of the region because of their higher involvement in crimes in many countries (Danso and McDonald, 2001; Quirk, 2008).
As mentioned at the beginning, the early migrations to the state were from the neighbouring states which were of seasonal and short-term nature. However, currently the in-migration patterns in the state have gone a radical shift with the arrival of north Indian migrant labourers. It is observed that the migrants with a higher residence history in the state are bringing their families, thereby making the situation complex and divergent. At present, Kerala society is not just hosting the first generation of migrants, the numbers of second-generation migrants have increased drastically in the past few years. It is seen that a vast majority of the in-migrants to the state are from the lower strata of the society, who are poor, illiterate, and ignorant of host language and with a rural origin adhering tightly to their customs and beliefs. These characteristics have resulted in the popping up of issues related to cultural assimilation and socialisation, leading to the formation of cultural- linguistic concentrations in some areas of the state. So, in the long run, these areas can transform themselves into ‘ghettos’ and virtually become ethnic enclaves comprising of a particular class of migrants having a hostile and racist approach.
According to Krishnakumar, the phenomenon of replacement migration has fostered an aversion to low paid and unskilled jobs on the part of the youth and has led to high unemployment rate in the state17. Migration does not only imply movement of people, but also movement of cultures (Castles and Miller, 2009). The proper blending of individuals with different socio-cultural, religious and ethnic orientation is necessary to avoid the popping up of social unrests and tensions in the host society. Successful social and cultural assimilation at the destination helps in the creation of a multi-cultural society which has a greater understanding and tolerance to other cultures, which the present-day Indian society lacks to a greater extent. On the other side, it is also
16 Based on the newspaper article published in Mathrubhumi Newspaper dated 10th August 2017, Page No.9. 17 Based on an article titled “Shades of Grey” published in Frontline, Vol. 29 dated 11-24, August 2012 , which can be accessed at http://www.frontline.in/static/html/fl2916/stories/20120824291612300.htm
Page | 20 seen that some aspects of cultural identity are lost during the assimilation process particularly among the second generation migrants.
Conclusion
The recent population trends across the countries of the world throws up new questions and challenges to deal with. Some countries are at their last phase of demographic transition, whereas some are at the beginning, similarly some regions of the world are under the threat of population decline whereas some other parts under the threat of population explosion. This imbalance in resources especially human capital has given the process of migration a new meaning and dimension in this globalised world. And one such newly evolved forms of migration is termed as replacement migration.
Replacement migration was conceived as a solution to the demographic problems faced by developed countries like population ageing and decline in working population. But, the question that comes into picture is whether this process is a viable solution to these demographic issues. Based on this analysis, it can be said that replacement migration can be considered as a short term measure to tackle the shortage of labour force in the market, but it can never be a permanent viable solution. Over the long run, it may result in political, cultural and social tensions in society. The increasing social and cultural diversity of populations may contribute to the proliferation of multi- variant communities which may result endanger the social cohesion, finally leading to the fragmentation of the society on the basis of their ideologies, culture, race, language etc.
Substitution and replacement in the labour market as a result of uncontrolled migration flows have the potential to affect not only the native workers but also may destabilize the labour market. Nevertheless, one cannot ignore that the formulation of labour market preferences and their exercise are also shaped by the legal framework that determines migrant’s status and consequent rights. However, for the long term benefit of the society, the policymakers should consider this issue with utmost importance, whereby it is possible to mitigate the negative impacts caused by population decline and replacement migration.
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