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Replacement Migration to Sweden an Overview of Possible Sender Countries

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Replacement Migration to Sweden an Overview of Possible Sender Countries A2004:016 Replacement Migration to Sweden An overview of possible sender countries Daniel Rauhut Replacement Migration to Sweden An overview of possible sender countries Daniel Rauhut ITPS, Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies Studentplan 3, S-831 40 Östersund, Sweden Telephone +46 63 16 66 00 Facsimile +46 63 16 66 01 E-mail [email protected] www.itps.se ISSN 1652-0483 Lenanders Grafiska AB, Kalmar 2004 For further information, please contact Daniel Rauhut Telephone +46 8-456 6719 and +46 70-306 6612 E-mail [email protected] REPLACEMENT MIGRATION TO SWEDEN Foreword The reason for an influx of foreign labour is different differs from that of people who to seek asylum. The former group are given permission to reside in Sweden in order to work and thereby contribute to the national economy. The latter group seek protection and can obtain this in Swe- den, even at the price of the high cost involved. An increase in the influx of foreign labour is usually presented as a way of solving the problem of the supply of labour in the future. The question at issue is partly the conditions under which an influx of this type is “profitable” in the long term, and partly the extent to which Sweden can attract the very skills that could contribute to growth. This report has been written by Daniel Rauhut. It analyses the influx of foreign labour from the perspective of the countries from which the la- bour comes. A review is also given of the possibilities Sweden has to actually recruit immigrants from various parts of the world. A new chap- ter has been written for this second revised edition, which makes a spe- cial analysis of the possibilities available to the new members of the EU to supply Sweden with labour. Stockholm, November 2004-11-01 Sture Öberg Director general 3 REPLACEMENT MIGRATION TO SWEDEN Contents Summary............................................................................................................ 7 1 Introduction............................................................................................... 9 1.1 Falling fertility and increasing lifespan........................................................ 9 1.2 The economic effects of demographic changes ....................................... 10 2 Ageing and migration ............................................................................ 13 2.1 An ageing population................................................................................ 13 2.2 Implications of an ageing population ........................................................ 17 2.3 Migration theories ..................................................................................... 19 3 Replacement immigration to Sweden .................................................. 25 3.1 Migration requirements............................................................................. 25 3.1.1 How much migration is needed? ................................................... 25 3.1.2 What kind of immigrant is in demand? .......................................... 29 3.1.3 Geographic differences in labour demand..................................... 30 3.2 Possible sender countries ........................................................................ 31 3.3 An international perspective ..................................................................... 34 3.4 Conclusion................................................................................................ 35 4 India ......................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Demographic structure ............................................................................. 37 4.2 Labour market .......................................................................................... 39 4.3 Education ................................................................................................. 40 4.4 Dependency ratio ..................................................................................... 41 4.5 Established migration flows ...................................................................... 43 4.6 Political implications ................................................................................. 45 4.7 Summary .................................................................................................. 45 5 China........................................................................................................ 49 5.1 Demographic structure ............................................................................. 49 5.2 Labour market .......................................................................................... 51 5.3 Education ................................................................................................. 52 5.4 Dependency ratio ..................................................................................... 52 5.5 Established migration flows ...................................................................... 55 5.6 Political implications ................................................................................. 56 5.7 Summary .................................................................................................. 57 6 Russia...................................................................................................... 61 6.1 Demographic structure ............................................................................. 61 6.2 Labour market .......................................................................................... 64 6.3 Education ................................................................................................. 64 6.4 Dependency ratio ..................................................................................... 65 6.5 Established migration flows ...................................................................... 67 6.6 Political implications ................................................................................. 69 6.7 Summary .................................................................................................. 70 7 Western Asia........................................................................................... 73 7.1 Demographic structure ............................................................................. 73 7.2 Labour market .......................................................................................... 75 7.3 Education ................................................................................................. 77 7.4 Dependency ratio ..................................................................................... 78 5 REPLACEMENT MIGRATION TO SWEDEN 7.5 Established migration flows ...................................................................... 80 7.6 Political implications ................................................................................. 83 7.7 Summary .................................................................................................. 83 8 North Africa............................................................................................. 85 8.1 Demographic structure ............................................................................. 85 8.2 Labour market .......................................................................................... 87 8.3 Education ................................................................................................. 88 8.4 Dependency ratio ..................................................................................... 89 8.5 Established migration flows ...................................................................... 92 8.6 Political Implications ................................................................................. 94 8.7 Summary .................................................................................................. 94 9 The European Union .............................................................................. 97 9.1 Freedom of movement and joint institutions ............................................. 97 9.2 Demographic structure ............................................................................. 97 9.3 Labour market ........................................................................................ 100 9.4 Education ............................................................................................... 102 9.5 Dependency ratio ................................................................................... 104 9.6 Established migration flows within the EU .............................................. 106 9.7 Political implications ............................................................................... 109 9.8 Summary ................................................................................................ 110 10 The new EU Member States ................................................................ 113 10.1 What does EU enlargement mean?........................................................ 113 10.2 Demographic structure ........................................................................... 114 10.3 Labour market ........................................................................................ 117 10.4 Education ............................................................................................... 120 10.5 Dependency ratio ................................................................................... 123 10.6 Established migration flows ...................................................................
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