Paper to be presented in the 28th International Population Conference of IUSSP to be held at Cape Town, South Africa, October 29- November 4, 2017. Ageing Population and Replacement Migration: A Case Study of Kerala Arun Perumbilavil Anand Research Scholar Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Mumbai, India. Abstract Kerala is one of the states in India which ranks highest with respect to social and human indices. The 2011 census reveals that 60+ age group constitutes about 12.6% of the state’s total population as against 8.6% that of India and it is estimated that by 2061 this share would increase to 40% of the state’s population. These changes in the population structure have brought in significant implications on the socio-economic and cultural milieu of the state. As a result, the state is currently experiencing the phenomenon of replacement migration whereby the shortage of labour borne out of demographic transition, ageing population and out-migration is met by labourers from other parts of the country. This increasing influx of migrant workers have already started creating turbulences in different spheres of Kerala. In this context, the study tries to unveil the reasons that are responsible for the evolution of replacement migration, along with the consequences resulting out of it. For meeting the objectives, the study makes use of data from Census and other secondary sources and also, it incorporates a field element whereby the interviews are conducted with various stakeholders to analyse the impact and implications emerging out of the ageing population and labour in-migration. Keywords: Ageing, Kerala, Interstate migrants, Replacement migration. Page | 1 Introduction An absolute static population exists nowhere in this world. The movement of people in search of better living conditions and a more secure environment is as old as human civilisation. Such movements not only transform the lives of the migrants profoundly but also lead to significant economic and social changes both at the place of origin and destination of the migrants. The expansion and developments in the transport and communication sectors along with industrialisation have paved the way for large-scale movements of people from villages to towns, from towns to other towns and from one country to another country in search of new job opportunities and avenues. Industrialisation has widened the gap between rural and urban areas, inducing a shift of the workforce towards industrialising areas (Arun and Ajay, 2017). Moreover, the ongoing process of globalization has given a stimulus to human mobility across the world (World Migration Report, 2013). In the past few decades, the world has witnessed an alarming increase in the number of migrants. As per the latest UN reports it is estimated that migrants constitute about 232 million people or 3.2 per cent1 of the world's population. The relentless migration of human beings has given rise to many new forms of explaining the phenomenon like step migration2, circular migration3, replacement migration, seasonal migration4 etc. (World Migration Report, 2008). The phenomenon or the concept of replacement migration is of recent origin. The imminent decline along with ageing populations in some countries and regions of the world generated a widespread apprehension among the intellectuals on the lack of enough working-age population or people to meet the required labour force of these countries. Looking into the definitional aspects, United Nations with respect to international migration defines replacement migration as ‘the migration that would be needed to offset declines in the size of population, the declines in the population of working age, as well as to offset the overall ageing of a population’ (United Nations, 2000). From the perspective of internal migration, it is the internal movement of workers to the “vacuum” 1 Can be accessed at http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/number-of-international-migrants- rises.html 2 Step migration refers to mobility from an original residence to first one and then another destination, e.g. in a “stepwise” or sequential fashion. 3 Circular migration is variously defined, but generally refers to recurrent movement between two countries. 4 Seasonal migration refers to the process of moving for a period of time in response to labor or climate conditions. Page | 2 created by workers departing for another country, which is filled by workers from other parts within the country (World Migration Report, 2008). From a demographical point, replacement migration is the migration needed for a region to achieve a particular objective (demographic, economic or social). In general, it is said that replacement migration is a process undertaken to avoid the decline in the total population and decline of the working age population. For a study conducted by Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram on replacement migration, they came up with an operational definition for a replacement migrant and defined replacement migrants as temporary workers who come to Kerala from other states of India to take up work especially in construction, non-agricultural production and service sectors. They are called replacement migrants as they are thought to be replacing Kerala workers who emigrated to the Gulf countries and other parts of the globe5. Kerala is one of the few regions in the country that is undergoing this phenomenon and has gained the attention of many scholars in the recent past. Statement of the Problem Kerala is one of the states in India which ranks highest with respect to social and human indices. Migration in Kerala is a recent phenomenon, which accentuated after country’s independence. The mass migration of labour from the state was due to the loss in the agricultural sector, lack of sufficient employment opportunities, the spread of education and attainment of high health parameters, which finally lead to a demographic transition resulting in an expansion of the population in the working-age group. The 2011 census reveals that 60+ age group constitutes about 12.6% of the state’s total population as against 8.6% that of India and by 2061, it is estimated that this share would increase to 40% of Kerala’s population. These changes in the population structure have brought in significant implications on the socio-economic and cultural milieu of the state. As a result, the state is currently experiencing the phenomenon of replacement migration whereby the shortage of labour borne out of demographic transition, ageing population and out-migration is compensated by labourers from other parts of the country.Today, Kerala has one of highest wage 5 This definition can be accessed at http://www.cds.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MOIAACTIVITYREPORT 2006-2011.pdf Page | 3 rates in the country across different sectors6. Rajan and James (2007) opined large scale emigration of people from the state in search of jobs has created a scarcity of labour in the state, particularly physical labour which has been filled up by the migrants from other regions, leading to replacement migration. Thus, the phenomenon of replacement migration assumes a great necessity in viewing it from not only demographic and economic point of view but also from other empirical angles transcending social, cultural and political spheres. Objectives of the Study Given the above background, the present study intends to unfurl the origin, process and growth of replacement migration by highlighting through the specific context of the emerging issues in the state of Kerala and the stated objectives of the study are as follows: 1) To understand the phenomenon of migration in the state of Kerala; 2) To identify the reasons that are responsible for the evolution of replacement migration in the state of Kerala; 3) To identify the consequences resulting out of this phenomenon in the state. Research Methodology For meeting the objectives, the study primarily depends on the secondary data sources and also, incorporates a small field element to have a better understanding of the ground realities. The findings of the study are based on the data obtained from Census Commission, CDS survey reports (Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram), SRS (Sample Registration System) reports and other secondary sources. Also, to capture the ground realities, it incorporates a field element, whereby the interviews are conducted with various stakeholders who work in tandem with the interstate migrant workers to analyse the impact and implications emerging out of labour in-migration in the state. Migration in India Internal migration is considered to be an important element of population redistribution and equilibrium. While international migration has received more attention in recent debates on migration, internal migration is far more significant in terms of the numbers of people involved 6Report on Wage Rates in Rural India, Ministry of Labour and Employment, Government of India. Accessed at http://labourbureau.nic.in/ Wage_Rates_Rural_India_2008_09.pdf Page | 4 and perhaps even the quantum of remittances and poverty reduction potential of these. According to Bilsborrow (1998), internal migration is defined as population movement across a political or administrative boundary, which entails a change of usual residence. When we look at migration from closer angles, there exists a primary difference in the migration process in the developing countries with that of the developed nations. According to Deshingkar and Grimm