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THEWORLDTODAY.ORG NOVEMBER 2007 KOSOVO, SERBIA AND THE BALKANS From Tim Judah in Belgrade and Pristina PAGE 23

Wolves and Bears

n december 1991 germany led europe by announcing that it would recognise the independence of Croatia, then under December is decision time in attack from Serb forces. Soon the Balkans. If an afterwards, the rest of the then European Community followed and a internationally acceptable ipopular song in Croatia was Danke solution cannot be found for Deutschland. Serbs would disdainfully point this out, noting scornfully Croatia’s gratitude to the status of Kosovo, then the its powerful protector. In the years afterwards Germany often faced Kosovans might decide to recriminations because many argued that its declare independence. The move had come too early. Now, fifteen years later, the former Yugoslavia is haunted by the international community, eerie spectacle of history repeating itself. Today, especially Germany, will have a Germany is again at the centre of a diplomatic dispute, now over Kosovo, and Serbia is all but tricky decision to make. singing: Thank you Russia!

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In the Balkans however, all the best laid plans get derailed. Despite huge optimism amongst western diplomats that President Vladimir Putin’s Russia would sooner or later strike a The best decisions bargain and not oppose the Ahtisaari plan in the Security Council, the Russians said they would are made by veto it and eventually the United States and its European allies were forced to abandon their well-informed people. attempt to push it through. The World Today is mailed monthly to In virtual desperation they then agreed to a new negotiation process to be overseen by a so- all members of Chatham House – but it is called Troika of ambassadors from the US, the just one of many opportunities for members EU and Russia. These three have shuttled to become better informed and gain access around the Balkans and on September 28 they succeeded in organising a meeting of Serbia’s to quality research and analysis of the latest leaders with those of Kosovo in New York. This developments in international affairs. accomplished nothing apart from a promise to meet again on October 14, when, miracles JOIN THE DECISION-MAKERS! excepted, nothing was expected either. Learn more about the benefits of joining by visiting our website www.chathamhouse.org.uk, or contact the Head of Membership Development, NEXT Stephen Walsh on +44 (0) 20 7314 3625 So now the debate is on what happens next. [email protected] Officially speaking ‘next’ begins after December 10. That is the day the Troika must report on its BEST LAID PLANS progress to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki- On maps Kosovo appears to be part of moon. Russia and Serbia argue that Serbia, but in fact, except for its Serbian- negotiations should still continue after that, inhabited enclaves, it has had nothing to do while the US, Britain, France and others say it with Belgrade since the end of the war there in will be the end of the process. 1999. Since then it has been under the Russia is against Kosovo’s independence for a jurisdiction of the United Nations, but now nmber of reasons. Surrounded by several frozen diplomats are pretending that negotiations are conflicts in the former Soviet Union, it does not taking place on its future. In fact, they are not, want a precedent set with the independence of a and the real question is what Berlin decides post-communist, sub-republican unit. Although to do this December. Russia supports secessionists in, for example, Unlike Croatia, or indeed any of the six Abkhazia in Georgia, this does not necessarily republics of the old Yugoslavia, Kosovo was not mean it wants to give them recognition, a republic, which means that technically it did something that might come back to haunt it one not have the right to self-determination. day in say, Chechnya. However, of its two million people, ninety A resurgent Russia is also happy to use percent are ethnic Albanians who have long Kosovo, amongst other issues, to divide the EU demanded independence. and help stymie the development of a strong Last year Martti Ahtisaari, the former common foreign policy. Finnish president, presided over fourteen rounds of mostly fruitless talks between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians for the UN. In RUSSIAN ROAR March his proposal for ‘supervised Serbia’s leadership, and especially its independence’ for the territory was presented to conservative nationalist premier, Vojislav the Security Council. The idea was that Kosovo Kostunica can hardly believe its luck. Just would become independent but the UN mission at the moment they assumed they would lose there would be replaced by a powerful European Kosovo, Russia has come roaring back on to Union (EU) police and justice operation and the world stage. also a so-called International Civilian Office, In the Serb part of the divided city of which would play the same role as the powerful Mitrovica in northern Kosovo hangs a banner High Representative of the international calling on Russia for help. Another reads: ‘In the community in Bosnia. name of God and justice do not make our Holy

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TIM JUDAH is a journalist and author of the Serbs: History, Myth and the PAGE 25 Distruction of Yugoslavia, Yale, 1998.

Land a present to Albanians.’ And that is not all. WIDER IMPACT At the beginning of October a delegation from Kostunica has played his cards well but, Kostunica’s party attended the congress of however much he can delay Kosovo’s Putin’s United Russia party in Moscow independence, it seems unlikely that, whatever delivering the most fawning of messages. ‘Serbia generous offer of autonomy Serbia makes, the and its entire people will know how to Kosovo Albanians will accept it, or be forced remember and respect Russia’s crucial role and to accept it. In which case where will Serbia support in this crucial hour’, it read. go? Intellectuals around Kostunica and even But of course none of this Russian support some ministers have said that if Kosovo is comes without a price. In September Serbia recognised as an independent state by many officially changed its stance towards NATO. EU countries then Serbia should abandon its A member of Partnership for Peace, Serbia attempt to join the Union. has now stated that it does not want to join The western Balkans are already an enclave the alliance, which every single other former within the EU, but unlike Switzerland, are hardly communist country that has also joined the rich enough to disdain membership. If Serbia as EU, has done or wants to. Several large the biggest state in the region strays from the EU companies may also be sold to Russian firms. path then Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, These include Belgrade airport, JAT Serbian Kosovo and also Albania will all find their airlines, a major mining concern at Bor and progress significantly slowed. So, the issue of NIS, Serbia’s oil industry. Kosovo and how to deal with it has ramifications Where does this leave Kosovo and the far beyond this little Balkan territory. western allies? The US has made clear that At the end of September the Serbian daily should the Troika talks lead nowhere then, if Vecernje Novosti printed a cartoon showing a Kosovo’s Albanians declare independence after puzzled Little Red Riding Hood – Serbia – December 10, it is prepared to recognise the new looking wildly between two stern mother state. Britain and France would like to do the figures. One warns her not to go into the forest same but, for this to mean something other than in case she is taken by a slavering NATO wolf, the creation of a new northern Cyprus-style while the other cautions about the fierce statelet, they want a so-called ‘critical mass’ of Russian bear. Many Serbs simply cannot believe EU states to follow. Which is why, much to the that Serbia will abandon the path of European discomfort of the Germans, who have bitter integration, but on the other hand many memories of the abuse hurled at them in the Albanians can hardly believe that fifteen years 1990s for taking the lead over Croatia, Germany after the recognition of Croatia – Kosovo is again the focus of diplomatic attention. is still not independent. The reason for this is simple. Britain and France, while determined to break the deadlock over Kosovo and irritated by what they see as Chatham House Russian meddling in an internal European Events matter, also do not want to open a major rift in the EU. Thus the diplomats believe that if November 2007 Germany agrees to follow Britain and France, then the Italians will follow too and along with them the bulk of EU states, with the exception of those which are sceptical of Kosovo’s NOVEMBER 1 What is America Doing to Improve its Image Abroad? independence such as Slovakia, Cyprus, Greece, Colleen Graffy, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy Romania and perhaps Spain. NOVEMBER 5 Prospects for Peace in Darfur What Germany intends to do is still unclear. Jan Eliasson, Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Darfur Yet, with the UN mission in Kosovo in an NOVEMBER 14 What Future for the Palestinians? advanced state of administrative decay, there are Sari Nusseibeh, President, Al-Quds University concerted efforts in Brussels to come up with a NOVEMBER 20 General Reflections General Sir Michael Jackson, Former Chief of the General Staff so-called Plan B. The problem is that the EU needs unanimity to send its major mission to Chatham House has a worldwide reputation for furthering the understanding Kosovo and it is unclear how this could be done of international issues. An impartial research and membership organisation, if there is no new Security Council resolution. independent of government and vested interests, it brings together people of all nationalities and from all walks of life. Kosovo may also need crisis management if violence breaks out in the wake of further delays Membership: +44 (0) 20 7957 5721 Meetings: +44 (0) 20 7314 3636 to a decision on its status. Conferences: +44 (0) 20 7957 5754 e-mail: [email protected]