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Where the Smart Money Is Finding Safety by Katy Burne by the Numbers

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Where the Smart Money Is Finding Safety by Katy Burne by the Numbers ACCESS A BROADER MARKET PERSPECTIVE WHERE THE SMART MONEY IS FINDING SAFETY BY KATY BURNE BY THE NUMBERS JANUARY APRIL 3.3% -3% Projected rise in global economic growth in 2020, as Projection of global economic contraction in 2020 of Jan. 9 1 because of COVID-19, as of April 6 1 $3.926 TRILLION $5 TRILLION Size of US money market fund assets, as of Jan. 31 2 Size of US money market fund assets, as of April 27 2 $4.1 TRILLION $6.6 TRILLION Size of Federal Reserve balance sheet, as of Jan. 22 3 Size of Federal Reserve balance sheet, as of April 22 3 2% 11% Increase in deposits at BNY Mellon from third quarter Increase in deposits at BNY Mellon from fourth 2019 to fourth quarter 2019 4 quarter 2019 to first quarter 2020 4 5.1% 42.5% Annualized growth rate in bank deposits, as of Jan. 5 Annualized growth rate in bank deposits, as of Mar. 5 $6.49 BILLION $980 BILLION Inflows into US government money market funds in Inflows into US government money market funds the seven weeks ended Jan. 29, 2020 6 in the seven weeks ended April 22 6 SOURCES: 1. International Monetary Fund 2. Crane Data 3. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis 4. BNY Mellon 5. Federal Reserve 6. Investment Company Institute COVER: ADAM MAIDA WITH INVESTORS FACING CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FROM THE PANDEMIC, MANY ARE BUILDING LARGER-THAN-NORMAL CASH POSITIONS, WITH GOVERNMENT MONEY MARKET FUNDS AND BANK BALANCE SHEETS A PREFERRED DESTINATION. THE INTENSITY OF THAT DASH FOR CASH HAS SURPASSED EVEN 2008 LEVELS. BY KATY BURNE he least glamorous invest- “Historically, trust banks see the on their bank liquidity lines and were ments on Wall Street biggest deposit increases in times of limited to issuing commercial paper in have become some of stress,” said Brian Foran, analyst at maturities of one week or less because T the hottest places to be Autonomous Research. He put most the volatile market conditions pre- as investors worry about the unpre- of the increase in deposits down to a vented them from issuing debt longer dictable duration of the COVID-19 “huge flight-to-safety” and “cash-is-king than seven days. crisis and the risk that recent rallies in mentality” among asset managers, as Activity in most markets has stabi- stocks and other risky assets may be well as corporations drawing cash on lized since central banks announced overdone. revolving credit lines in an uncertain a series of emergency actions in That buildup of cash has benefitted environment. March. The Fed has facilities not just money market funds, bank deposits US Treasuries still appear to be some for Treasuries but for everything from and gold, among other areas. Investors of the most sought-after securities. A highly rated corporate debt and have turned to government money stampede for Treasury bills in March fixed-income exchange-traded funds market funds faster than they did in the briefly sent their yields into negative to mortgage bonds, municipal bonds, 2008 collapse, with some funds even territory for the first time in four years. commercial paper and bank certificates closing their doors to new investments. Those yields are still anchored near of deposit. Financial and non-financial institu- some of their lowest points of the year, Those programs are driving rates tions alike have deposited cash on bank even with the government borrowing to lower but have also increased the balance sheets at a rapid clip. Much of fund more than $2 trillion in economic Federal Reserve's balance sheet to the money is coming from government stimulus packages. more than $6 trillion from $4 trillion money market funds, whose managers Companies have also paid more as recently as December. Some people have cash rushing in and sometimes than normal to borrow in the commer- expect it to grow to as much as $10 tril- nowhere else to put it that is generating cial paper market. Many non-financial lion, an unprecedented level. any yield. corporates rated A-2/P-2 drew down Nevertheless, even as bargain BILLIONDOLLAR MATTRESS BNY Mellon Asset Servicing has seen above-average custody deposits as clients seek safety 200 March 13: Commercial paper market freezes; OPEC 150 talks break down 100 March 26: index, Jan 1, 2020 = 100 Dow climbs out of 50 bear market; Senate approves federal stimulus 0 Jan - 2020 Feb - 2020 Mar - 2020 SOURCE: BNY MELLON ASSET SERVICING hunters tiptoe back into stocks and stability, but also because we have a keeping powder dry in anticipation of investment-grade companies sell strong balance sheet and are prepared needing to raise cash for margin calls. record amounts of new bonds, the to help with their cash and liquidity Access to liquidity is a big selling point majority of investors are still displaying needs even in difficult times,” said when financial markets are not func- above-average levels of caution. Emily Portney, global head of client tioning smoothly, because incoming They have good reason: approxi- coverage in asset servicing for BNY cash from collateral calls on winning mately 25 million were unemployed in Mellon. trades often arrives after other coun- the US as of the end of April, roughly Similarly, State Street saw average terparties start demanding cash on 18% of the workforce, but that could deposits in the first quarter of $180 losing trades. rise to as much as 25% by the middle billion, up 16% year-over-year. J.P. Liquidity is not the only motivating of May, according to BNY Mellon strat- Morgan’s corporate and investing factor. Some hedge funds have been egist John Velis. The International banking unit saw deposits average $562 putting money onto bank balance Monetary Fund is projecting the global billion, up 14% year-over-year. sheets to sidestep potential counter- economy will contract by 3% this year, BlackRock's cash-management busi- party risk from their prime brokers, worse than during the 2008–2009 ness saw $50 billion in net inflows in although this is less of a concern than meltdown. the first quarter as clients de-risked it was in 2008. “There’s no question rapidly, the company said. that you rely on your third parties far WALL OF CASH In many cases, money market funds more in moments like this than you Banks with custody and transac- were stashing cash at banks to avoid do when times are good,” noted Tom tion-banking operations in particular buying negative-yielding securities. Staudt, chief operating officer at Ark have seen a surge in cash from clients. “Some funds may be able to tempo- Investment Management, an issuer of At BNY Mellon, deposits in the first rarily park cash at their custodian at actively managed ETFs. quarter averaged $258 billion, up 20% some neutral rate, which is a way of While Ark did not need to park cash from year-ago levels, rising to $337 bil- staving off negative yield,” said Alastair with banks, Staudt said counterparty lion on the last day of March. Sewell, senior director in fund and risk is a key consideration when picking “Our clients depend on us not only asset management at Fitch Ratings. partners. “For us, BNY Mellon makes for our operational expertise and Elsewhere, asset managers were that list since we are confident they are MARCH MADNESS Inows into government money market funds exploded, as prime funds saw outows 350,000 Government money market funds 300,000 Prime money market funds 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Millions of US dollars 0 (50,000) (100,000) 12/11/201912/18/201912/24/201912/31/201901/08/202001/15/202001/22/202001/29/202002/05/202002/12/202002/19/202002/26/202003/04/202003/11/202003/18/202003/25/202004/01/202004/08/202004/15/2020 SOURCE: INVESTMENT COMPANY INSTITUTE a healthy organization in good financial expanded that change to a wider pool debt carrying little to no yield, or even condition, not a niche broker that we of banks in March, but the changes may the risk of a negative yield. have to worry about going under,” he not provide much balance-sheet relief It took just seven weeks for US gov- added. because they are only temporary. ernment money funds to grow by $980 Commercial banks overall have seen Another issue is that the margin billion as of the week ending April 22, clients adding cash to their accounts. banks make on extending their balance according to the Investment Company The annualized growth rate in bank sheet is narrowing. When the Fed low- Institute. In comparable times of rapid deposits for March was 42.5%, Fed ered benchmark interest rates by 150 change, it took far longer: 32 months data show, compared to an average basis points in March, it lowered the around the time of the regulatory of 6% in the previous 12 months, and rates banks can earn on cash they park shakeup of money market funds in weekly data through April 15 show the at the Fed to just 0.1%. 2016 and 16 months in the 2008 global growth may be faster still. The cash J.P. Morgan Chase told hedge financial crisis. deposits, or “reserves,” that banks park funds in early April it would need The week ended March 25 was the at the Fed grew to $346.9 billion in the to start charging them as of April fourth-largest weekly inflow ever, at week ended April 1, the most since 17 for US dollar prime brokerage $344 billion, ICI said, and the speed 2014, but as of April 22 they stood at deposits, because of the lower rates.
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