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Assessment of the Equivalent Level of Safety Requirements for Small Uavs

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Assessment of the Equivalent Level of Safety Requirements for Small Uavs ASSESSMENT OF THE EQUIVALENT LEVEL OF SAFETY REQUIREMENTS FOR SMALL UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES by © Jonathan D. Stevenson, B.Eng., M.Eng. A Doctoral Thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Memorial University of Newfoundland June 2015 St. John’s Newfoundland and Labrador ABSTRACT The research described in this thesis was a concentrated effort to assess the Equivalent Level of Safety (ELOS) of small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), in terms of the requirements needed for the small UAV to be considered at least as safe as equivalent manned aircraft operating in the same airspace. However, the concept of ELOS is often quoted without any scientific basis, or without proof that manned aircraft themselves could be considered safe. This is especially true when the recognized limitations of the see-and-avoid principle is considered, which has led to tragic consequences over the past several decades. The primary contribution of this research is an initial attempt to establish quantifiable standards related to the ELOS of small UAVs in non-segregated airspace. A secondary contribution is the development of an improved method for automatically testing Detect, Sense and Avoid (DSA) systems through the use of two UAVs flying a synchronized aerial maneuver algorithm. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author was supported financially through the National Sciences and Research Council of Canada, including the generous granting of a Canadian Graduate Scholarship. RAVEN flight operations of the Aerosonde UAV would not have been possible without the financial support from the Atlantic Canada Opportunity Agency and our industrial partner, Provincial Aerospace Limited (PAL). The experiments at Argentia and Bell Island were assisted by the enthusiastic participation and support of the RAVEN team, especially during operations in 2010 and 2013. The night-time light experiment required the enlistment of a number of volunteer human test subjects, whose valuable contribution to this research is hereby noted. The author also wishes to thank of his supervisors, Dr. Siu O’Young and Dr. Luc Rolland, for their unwavering support, encouragement and assistance, especially during the final stages of this research and the preparation of the thesis. The support of my family made the sometimes arduous research bearable. My six month sabbatical in 2013 would not have been possible without my parents’ support including accommodations. My older brother Christopher deserves special mention for his assistance in the preparation of the thesis draft copies for submission. Finally, the care, encouragement and support provided by my partner, Rennie, including serving as the “cook” for the human subjects during the night-time light experiment, is greatly appreciated. This project would not have been completed successfully without her support. iii Table of Contents ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................... iii Table of Contents................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii List of Symbols, Nomenclature or Abbreviations ............................................................... x List of Appendices ............................................................................................................ xiv Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The Motivation for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles .................................……1 1.1.1 The Original Military Role ................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 Expansion to Non-Military Roles ..................................................................... 3 1.1.3 The Utility of UAVs.......................................................................................... 4 1.1.4 Classification of UAVs ..................................................................................... 6 1.1.5 The Role for Small LALE UAVs...................................................................... 8 1.2 The Challenges and Limitations of UAVs ................................................. 9 1.2.1 Lack of Pilot See and Avoid Capability .......................................................... 10 1.2.2 Inadequate Anti-Collision Technologies......................................................... 10 1.2.3 No Detect, Sense and Avoid System ............................................................... 11 1.2.4 Limited BLOS Situational Awareness ............................................................ 12 1.2.5 Unique Challenges for the Small LALE ......................................................... 14 1.3 Problem statement .................................................................................... 17 1.3.1 Risk Assessment.............................................................................................. 17 1.3.2 Definition of Equivalent Level of Safety ........................................................ 18 1.3.3 Summary of the Detect Sense and Avoid Problem ......................................... 21 1.4 Thesis Outline .......................................................................................... 23 Chapter 2 Assessing the Risks Posed by UAVs ............................................................. 26 2.1 The Requirements for UAV Integration .................................................. 26 2.2 Perceived and Assumed Risks ................................................................. 30 2.2.1 Risk to the Crew .............................................................................................. 30 2.2.2 High Operational Costs ................................................................................... 32 2.2.3 Financial Risk due to Attrition ........................................................................ 32 2.2.4 The Doctrine of Zero-Tolerance ..................................................................... 34 2.2.5 Public Fear of UAVs ....................................................................................... 35 iv 2.2.6 Motivation for Improved Reliability ............................................................... 36 2.2.7 The Motivation for UAV Control Enhancement Research ............................. 37 2.3 Physical Risks from UAVs ...................................................................... 38 2.3.1 Ground Impact Risk ........................................................................................ 39 2.3.2 Mid-Air Collision Risk ................................................................................... 41 2.4 Calculating the Estimated Level of Safety ............................................... 44 2.4.1 Ground Impact Estimated Level of Safety ...................................................... 44 2.4.2 Mid-air Collision Risk..................................................................................... 50 2.5 Summary: The Current Level of Safety ................................................... 58 2.5.1 Ground Risk .................................................................................................... 58 2.5.2 Mid-Air Collision Risk ................................................................................... 59 2.5.3 Where the Small UAV Needs to Improve ....................................................... 59 2.5.4 Mitigation Strategies ....................................................................................... 60 Chapter 3 UAV Control and Situational Awareness ...................................................... 62 3.1 Introduction to UAV Control Methods .................................................... 62 3.2 Analysis of UAV Control Methods ......................................................... 66 3.2.1 Summary of the Manual Control Situation ..................................................... 67 3.2.2 First Person versus Third Person View ........................................................... 69 3.2.3 The Problem of Control Delays ...................................................................... 71 3.3 Virtual Reality Pilot Experiments ............................................................ 77 3.3.1 Various Manual Piloting Methods .................................................................. 77 3.3.2 The VR Landing Experiment Design .............................................................. 79 3.3.3 Argentia VR Landing Experiment (2010) ....................................................... 81 3.3.4 Bell Island Landing Experiment (2013) .......................................................... 96 3.3.5 Conclusions from Both VR Experiments ...................................................... 109 3.4 Extended Range Video Links at Beyond Line of Sight ......................... 111 3.5 Synthetic Environments ......................................................................... 115 3.5.1 Visualization using a Flight
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