Sound Transit Climate Risk Reduction Project SEPTEMBER 2013 FTA Report No. 0075 Federal Transit Administration PREPARED BY Lara Whitely Binder, Ingrid Tohver The Climate Impacts Group College of the Environment University of Washington Amy Shatzkin Sound Transit Amy K. Snover The Climate Impacts Group College of the Environment University of Washington COVER PHOTO Photo courtesy of Sound Transit, © 2008 DISCLAIMER This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. The United States Government does not endorse products of manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the objective of this report. Sound Transit Climate Risk Reduction Project SEPTEMBER 2013 FTA Report No. 0075 PREPARED BY Lara Whitely Binder, Ingrid Tohver The Climate Impacts Group College of the Environment University of Washington Amy Shatzkin Sound Transit Amy K. Snover The Climate Impacts Group College of the Environment University of Washington SPONSORED BY Federal Transit Administration Office of Budget and Policy U.S. Department of Transportation 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE Washington, DC 20590 AVAILABLE ONLINE http://www.fta.dot.gov/research Metric Conversion Table SYMBOL WHEN YOU KNOW MULTIPLY BY TO FIND SYMBOL LENGTH in inches 25.4 millimeters mm ft feet 0.305 meters m yd yards 0.914 meters m mi miles 1.61 kilometers km VOLUME fl oz fluid ounces 29.57 milliliters mL gal gallons 3.785 liter L ft3 cubic feet 0.028 cubic meters m3 yd3 cubic yards 0.765 cubic meters m3 NOTE: volumes greater than 1000 L shall be shown in m3 MASS oz ounces 28.35 grams g lb pounds 0.454 kilograms kg megagrams T short tons (2000 lb) 0.907 Mg (or “t”) (or “metric ton”) TEMPERATURE (exact degrees) o 5 (F-32)/9 o F Fahrenheit Celsius C or (F-32)/1.8 FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION ii REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruc­ tions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188), Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2013 October 1, 2011-September 30, 2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Sound Transit Climate Risk Reduction Project WA-26-6001 6. AUTHOR(S) Lara Whitely Binder, Ingrid Tohver, Amy Snover, UW Climate Impacts Group Amy Shatzkin, Sound Transit 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESSE(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Central Puget Sound Regional Transit Authority (Sound Transit) 401 S Jackson St. FTA Report No. 0075 Seattle WA 98104-2826 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT U.S. Department of Transportation NUMBER Federal Transit Administration East Building FTA Report No. 0075 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE Washington, DC 20590 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES http://www.fta.dot.gov/research 12A. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12B. DISTRIBUTION CODE Available from: National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield, VA 22161 TRI-20 Phone 703.605.6000, Fax 703.605.6900, email [[email protected]] 13. ABSTRACT The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term planning; options for strengthening the agency’s resilience to these impacts; and opportunities for integrating climate change considerations into agency decision making processes. The project concluded that many climate change impacts will likely be minor to moderate, although po­ tentially significant impacts are possible with higher rates of sea-level rise and mudslide activity. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Climate change, vulnerability assessment, adaptation, Sound Transit 260 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT None Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION iii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary 16 Section 1: Introduction 16 Why the Sound Transit Climate Risk Reduction Project? 16 Meeting Federal Climate Adaptation and Resilience Goals 18 Climate Change Matters to Sound Transit 18 Project Goals 19 Major Project Phases 20 Climate Change Impacts Evaluated 21 Key Considerations Related to Project Results 21 About Sound Transit Services 23 Sounder Commuter Rail 23 Link Light Rail 24 ST Express 24 Customer Facilities 25 Section 2: Overview of Projected Climate Change Impacts 25 Projected Changes in PNW Temperature 27 Projected Changes in PNW Precipitation 28 Projected Changes in Puget Sound Hydrology 30 Projected Sea-level Rise 31 Closing Considerations: Natural Variability 32 Section 3: Prioritizing Climate Change Impacts and Services 32 Prioritization Approach 33 Prioritizing Projected Climate Change Impacts: Which Impacts Matter More? 34 Recognizing Climate Change as a Spectrum of Change and Probabilities 36 Potentially Significant Climate Change Impacts 39 Moderate Climate Change Impacts 44 Minor Climate Change Impacts 49 Which Services May Become Priority Areas for Adaptation? 52 Services That May Become a Higher Priority for Adaptation 53 Services That May Become a Medium Priority for Adaptation 55 Services That May Become a Lower Priority for Adaptation 55 Conclusions Regarding Prioritization 57 Section 4: Strengthening Resilience through Adaptation 57 Adapting to Climate Change 59 Why Consider Adaptation Now? 61 Adaptation Options for Sound Transit Services 62 Adapting to Heat Impacts 63 Increased Heat Stress on Electrical Equipment FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION iv 66 Adapting to Precipitation Impacts 69 Adapting to Sea-level Rise 71 Section 5: Integrating Adaptation into Agency Processes 79 Section 6: Conclusion and Next Steps 81 References 84 Appendix A: Projected Changes in Key Drivers of Climate Change Impacts in Puget Sound: An Overview 110 Appendix B: Project Methodology 126 Appendix C: Vulnerability Assessment Results and Adaptation Options for Sound Transit Services 240 Appendix D: Integration Examples: Sound Transit ESMS and WSDOT 246 Appendix E: Suggested Resources FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION v LIST OF FIGURES 3 Figure ES-1: Current Sound Transit service map, inclusive of Link extensions under construction or in planning as part of the ST2 ballot measure approved by voters in 2008 22 Figure 1-1: Current Sound Transit service map, inclusive of Link extensions under construction or in planning as part of the ST2 ballot measure approved by voters in 2008 29 Figure 2-1: Projected changes in Average monthly unregulated flow (in cubic feet per second) for the Green River near Auburn 59 Figure 4-1: General stages of adaptation 59 Figure 4-2: Adaptation-mitigation nexus FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION vi LIST OF TABLES 6 Table ES-1: Projected Changes in PNW Climate 7 Table ES-2: Potential Climate Change Impacts Evaluated, Grouped by Principal Climate Cause 9 Table ES-3: Projected Climate Change Impacts by Degree of Potential Impact and Estimated Probability 20 Table 1-1: Potential Climate Change Impacts Evaluated, Grouped by Principal Climate Cause 26 Table 2-1: Projected Changes in Average Annual and Seasonal PNW Temperature and Precipitation (with Range) 30 Table 2-2: Sea-level Rise Projections for Seattle Compared to 2000 Levels 33 Table 3-1: Characteristics of Potentially Significant, Moderate, and Minor Climate Change Impacts 34 Table 3-2: Projected Climate Change Impacts Evaluated, Sorted by Potential Significance 35 Table 3-3: Distribution of Projected Climate Change Impacts by Degree of Potential Impact and Estimated Probability of Impacts 50 Table 3-4: Potential Priority Areas for Taking Adaptive Action, by Service 58 Table 4-1: Purpose, Sensitivity to Climate Uncertainty, and Examples of Actions that Build Adaptive Capacity and Deliver Adaptive Action 73 Table 5-1: Sound Transit Climate Change Integration Matrix FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank the leadership of each of the pilot project’s participating institutions: the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Sound Transit, and the Washington State Department of Transportation. In addition, the authors would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions to the project: Carol Lee Roalkvam, Environmental Policy Branch Manager for the Washington State Department of Transportation; Mike Strong, Sound Transit GIS Analyst; Rob Norheim, Climate Impacts Group GIS Analyst; and Elizabeth Pettit and Alison Andrews, CIG interns. Finally, this project would not be possible without the numerous Sound Transit directors, managers, and technical staff who participated as workshop participants, report reviewers, and strategic advisors. ABSTRACT