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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Highways to Success or Byways to Waste Highways to Success or Byways to Waste Estimating the Economic Benefi ts of Roads in Africa Rubaba Ali, A. Federico Barra, Claudia Berg, Richard Damania, John Nash, and Jason Russ A copublication of Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Th e World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 18 17 16 15 Th is work is a product of the staff of Th e World Bank with external contributions. Th e fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of Th e World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or the Agence Française de Développement. Th e World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Th e boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of Th e World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of Th e World Bank, all of which are specifi cally reserved. Rights and Permissions Th is work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Ali, Rubaba, A. Federico Barra, Claudia Berg, Richard Damania, John Nash, and Jason Russ. 2015. Highways to Success or Byways to Waste: Estimating the Eco- nomic Benefi ts of Roads in Africa. Africa Development Forum series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0654-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: Th is translation was not created by Th e World Bank and should not be considered an offi cial World Bank translation. Th e World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: Th is is an adaptation of an original work by Th e World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by Th e World Bank. Th ird-party content—Th e World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. Th e World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party- owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. Th e risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, fi gures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, Th e World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0654-4 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0656-8 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0654-4 Cover photo: © Jeremy Woodhouse/Blend Images/Corbis. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. Africa Development Forum Series Th e Africa Development Forum Series was created in 2009 to focus on issues of signifi cant relevance to Sub-Saharan Africa’s social and economic develop- ment. Its aim is both to record the state of the art on a specifi c topic and to contribute to ongoing local, regional, and global policy debates. It is designed specifi cally to provide practitioners, scholars, and students with the most up-to-date research results while highlighting the promise, challenges, and opportunities that exist on the continent. Th e series is sponsored by the Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank. Th e manuscripts chosen for publication represent the high- est quality in each institution and have been selected for their relevance to the development agenda. Working together with a shared sense of mission and interdisciplinary purpose, the two institutions are committed to a common search for new insights and new ways of analyzing the development realities of the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Advisory Committee Members Agence Française de Développement Jean-Yves Grosclaude, Director of Strategy Alain Henry, Director of Research Guillaume de Saint Phalle, Head of Research and Publishing Division Cyrille Bellier, Head of the Economic and Social Research Unit World Bank Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Chief Economist, Africa Region Stephen McGroarty, Executive Editor, Publishing and Knowledge Division Carlos Rossel, Publisher v Sub-Saharan Africa CABO MAURITANIA VERDE NIGER MALI SUDAN ERITREA SENEGAL CHAD THE GAMBIA BURKINA FASO GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA BENIN NIGERIA CÔTE ETHIOPIA GHANA CENTRAL SOUTH SIERRA LEONE D’IVOIRE SUDAN AFRICAN REPUBLIC SOMALIA LIBERIA TOGO CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA UGANDA REP. OF KENYA SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE GABON CONGO DEMOCRATIC RWANDA REPUBLIC OF CONGO BURUNDI TANZANIA SEYCHELLES COMOROS ANGOLA MALAWI Mayotte ZAMBIA (Fr.) ZIMBABWE MOZAMBIQUE MAURITIUS MADAGASCAR NAMIBIA BOTSWANA La Réunion (Fr.) SWAZILAND LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA IBRD 39088R September 2015 Source: World Bank (IBRD 39088R, September 2015). Titles in the Africa Development Forum Series Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation (2010) edited by Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Market (2010) edited by Jorge Saba Arbache, Alexandre Kolev, and Ewa Filipiak Challenges for African Agriculture (2010) edited by Jean-Claude Deveze Contemporary Migration to South Africa: A Regional Development Issue (2011) edited by Aurelia Segatti and Loren Landau Light Manufacturing in Africa: Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs (2012) by Hinh T. Dinh, Vincent Palmade, Vandana Chandra, and Frances Cossar Informal Sector in Francophone Africa: Firm Size, Productivity, and Institutions (2012) by Nancy Benjamin and Ahmadou Aly Mbaye Financing Africa’s Cities: Th e Imperative of Local Investment (2012) by Th ierry Paulais Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited: Challenges for Late Developing Countries in a Globalizing World (2012) by Bruno Losch, Sandrine Fréguin-Gresh, and Eric Th omas White Th e Political Economy of Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New Imple- mentation Model (2013) edited by Bernard Daffl on and Th ierry Madiès Empowering Women: Legal Rights and Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Tazeen Hasan Enterprising Women: Expanding Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier Urban Labor Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013) edited by Philippe De Vreyer and François Roubaud Securing Africa’s Land for Shared Prosperity: A Program to Scale Up Reforms and Investments (2013) by Frank F. K. Byamugisha Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (2014) by Deon Filmer and Louis Fox vii viii TITLES IN THE AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FORUM SERIES Tourism in Africa: Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods (2014) by Iain Christie, Eneida Fernandes, Hannah Messerli, and Louise Twining-Ward Safety Nets in Africa: Eff ective Mechanisms to Reach the Poor and Most Vulner- able (2015) edited by Carlo del Ninno and Bradford Mills Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities: Th e Example of Bamako, Mali (2015) by Alain Durand-Lasserve, Maÿlis Durand-Lasserve, and Harris Selod Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure: Th e Power and Water Sectors (2015) edited by Raff aello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? (2015) edited by David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck Th e Challenge of Fragility and Security in West Africa (2015) by Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka Highways to Success or Byways to Waste: Estimating the Economic Benefi ts of Roads in Africa (2015) by Rubaba Ali, A. Federico Barra, Claudia Berg, Richard Damania, John Nash, and Jason Russ All books in the Africa Development Forum series are available for free at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2150 Contents Foreword xvii Acknowledgments xix About the Authors xxi Abbreviations xxiii 1 Road Map to the Report 1 Introduction 1 Th e Untapped Potential of African Agriculture 2 Th e Importance of Improving Connectivity 5 Requirements for Improving Connectivity 7 Literature on the Relationship between Infrastructure and Welfare 8 Th e Structure of the Report 10 New Techniques for Answering Questions in Infrastructure Economics 15 Notes 15 References 15 2 Welfare Effects of Road Infrastructure 21 Introduction 21 Challenges in Estimating the Economic Eff ects of Transport Cost Reductions
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