Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Highways to Success or Byways to Waste Highways to Success or Byways to Waste Estimating the Economic Benefi ts of Roads in Africa Rubaba Ali, A. Federico Barra, Claudia Berg, Richard Damania, John Nash, and Jason Russ A copublication of Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Th e World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 18 17 16 15 Th is work is a product of the staff of Th e World Bank with external contributions. Th e fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of Th e World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or the Agence Française de Développement. 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Federico Barra, Claudia Berg, Richard Damania, John Nash, and Jason Russ All books in the Africa Development Forum series are available for free at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2150 Contents Foreword xvii Acknowledgments xix About the Authors xxi Abbreviations xxiii 1 Road Map to the Report 1 Introduction 1 Th e Untapped Potential of African Agriculture 2 Th e Importance of Improving Connectivity 5 Requirements for Improving Connectivity 7 Literature on the Relationship between Infrastructure and Welfare 8 Th e Structure of the Report 10 New Techniques for Answering Questions in Infrastructure Economics 15 Notes 15 References 15 2 Welfare Effects of Road Infrastructure 21 Introduction 21 Challenges in Estimating the Economic Eff ects of Transport Cost Reductions