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Buradan Yönetildiği Ile Ilgili Bir Kanı Vardır ERMENİ ARAŞTIRMALARI Dört Aylık Tarih, Politika ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi sayı Olaylar ve Yorumlar 45 Ömer E. LÜTEM 2013 Ermenistan-Azerbaycan Çatışmasının Yakın Geleceği: Barış mı? Savaş mı? Yoksa Ateşkes mi? Emin ŞIHALIYEV İngiltere’nin Kafkasya Politikası ve Ermeni Sorunu (1917-1918) Tolga BAŞAK Levon Ter Petrosyan’ın “XII. ve XIII. Yüzyılda Kilikya Ermenileri Kültüründe Asurilerin Rolü” Adlı Eserinde Süryani-Ermeni İlişkileri Yıldız Deveci BOZKUŞ Ermeni Siyasal Düşüncesinde Terörizm Hatem CABBARLI Türkiye’nin Dış Politikasına Etkisi Bakımından 2015’e Doğru Ermeni Lobisi Ömer Faruk AN KİTAP ÖZETİ GÜNCEL BELGELER ERMENİ ARAŞTIRMALARI Dört Aylık, Tarih, Politika ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 2013, Sayı 45 YAYIN SAHİBİ Ali Kenan ERBULAN SORUMLU YAZI İŞLERİ MÜDÜRÜ Aslan Yavuz ŞİR YAZI KURULU Alfabetik Sıra İle Prof. Dr. Kemal ÇİÇEK Prof. Dr. Bayram KODAMAN (Türk Tarih Kurumu, (Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi) Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi) Prof. Dr. Enver KONUKÇU Dr. Şükrü ELEKDAĞ Doç. Dr. Erol KÜRKÇÜOĞLU (Milletvekili, E. Büyükelçi) (Türk-Ermeni İlişkileri Araştırma Prof. Dr. Temuçin Faik ERTAN Merkezi Müdürü, Atatürk Üniversitesi) (Ankara Üniversitesi) Prof. Dr. Nurşen MAZICI Prof. Dr. Yusuf HALAÇOĞLU (Marmara Üniversitesi) (Gazi Üniversitesi) Prof. Dr. Hikmet ÖZDEMİR Dr. Erdal İLTER (Siyaset Bilimci) (Tarihçi, Yazar) Prof. Dr. Mehmet SARAY Dr. Yaşar KALAFAT (Tarihçi) (Tarihçi, Yazar) Dr. Bilal ŞİMŞİR Doç. Dr. Davut KILIÇ (E. Büyükelçi, Tarihçi) (Fırat Üniversitesi) Pulat TACAR (E. Büyükelçi) DANIŞMA KURULU Alfabetik Sıra İle Prof. Dr. Dursun Ali AKBULUT Prof. Dr. Nuri KÖSTÜKLÜ (Ondokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi) (Selçuk Üniversitesi) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Kalerya BELOVA Andrew MANGO (Uluslararası İlişkiler Enstitüsü) (Gazeteci, Yazar) Prof. Dr. Salim CÖHCE Prof. Dr. Justin MCCARTHY (İnönü Üniversitesi) (Louisville Üniversitesi) Edward ERICKSON Prof. Dr. Azmi SÜSLÜ (Tarihçi) (Ankara Üniversitesi) EDİTÖR Ömer Engin LÜTEM Ermeni Araştırmaları yılda üç kez yayımlanır. Yerel Süreli Yayın. Ermeni Araştırmaları hakemli bir dergidir. Ermeni Araştırmaları dergisi TÜBİTAK ULAKBİM tarafından taranmaktadır. Gönderilen yazılar ilk olarak yazı kurulunca bilimsel anlatım ve yazım kuralları yönünden incelenir. Daha sonra uygun bulunan yazılar, alanında bilimsel çalışmaları ile tanınmış üç ayrı hakeme gönderilir. Hakemlerin kararları doğrultusunda yazı yayımlanır ya da yayımlanmaz. Hakemlerin gizli tutulan raporları derginin arşivlerinde beş yıl süre ile tutulur. Yayın İdare Merkezi Terazi Yayıncılık Bas. Dağ. Dan. Eğt. Org. Mat. Kırt. Ltd. Şti. Abidin Daver Sok. No. 12/B Daire 4 06550 Çankaya/ANKARA Tel: 0 (312) 438 50 23-24 • Faks: 0 (312) 438 50 26 www.avim.org.tr Baskı Tarihi: 9 Ekim 2013 ISSN: 1303-068X Sayfa Düzeni Ruhi ALAGÖZ Baskı: Özyurt Matbaacılık Büyük San. 1. Cad. Süzgün Sok. No: 7 İskitler / ANKARA Tel: +90 312 384 15 36 Belgegeçer: +90 312 384 15 37 Abone Sorumlusu Hülya ÖNALP Terazi Yayıncılık Bas. Dağ. Dan. Eğt. Org. Mat. Kırt. Ltd. Şti. Süleyman Nazif Sok. No. 12/B Daire 4 06550 Çankaya/ANKARA Tel: 0 (312) 438 50 23-24 • Faks: 0 (312) 438 50 26 E-posta: [email protected] Yurtiçi Abone Ücreti: 25 TL Yurtdışı Abone Ücreti: 25 ? Aşağıdaki banka/posta çeki hesap numaralarına ödeme yapabilirsiniz: Terazi Yayıncılık, Garanti Bankası-Çankaya/ANKARA Şubesi 181/6296007 Posta Çeki Hesabı: Ankara/Çankaya/Merkez 5859221 IBAN No: TR960006200018100006296007 Aksi belirtilmediği sürece Ermeni Araştırmalarıʼnda yayımlanan yazılarda belirtilen olay ve fikirler sadece yazarına aittir. Yazı işleri müdürünü, yayın sahibini veya editörünü bağlamaz. Tüm hakları saklıdır. Önceden yazılı izin alınmaksızın hiçbir iletişim, kopyalama sistemi kullanılarak yeniden baskısı yapılamaz. Akademik ve haber amaçlı kısa alıntılar bu kuralın dışındadır. İÇİNDEKİLER (CONTENTS) Sayfa Editörün Notu ...........................................................................................................................................5 (Editorial Note) MAKALELER.............................................................................................................................................9 (ARTICLES) Olaylar ve Yorumlar ..........................................................................................................................9 (Facts and Comments) Ömer E. LÜTEM Ermenistan-Azerbaycan Çatışmasının Yakın Geleceği: Barış mı? Savaş mı? Yoksa Ateşkes mi?.............................................................................73 (The Near Future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Peace? Cease-Fire? Or War?) Emin ŞIHALIYEV İngiltereʼnin Kafkasya Politikası ve Ermeni Sorunu (1917-1918)...............................93 (Britainʼs Caucasus Policy and the Armenian Problem) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Tolga BAŞAK Levon Ter Petrosyanʼın “XII. ve XIII. Yüzyılda Kilikya Ermenileri İÇİNDEKİLER Kültüründe Asurilerin Rolü” Adlı Eserinde Süryani-Ermeni İlişkileri........................127 (Assyrian-Armenian Relations in Levon Ter Petrosyanʼs Book Entitled “The Role of Assyrians in the XIIth and XIIIth Century Within the Culture of the Armenians in Cilicia”) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Yıldız Deveci BOZKUŞ Ermeni Siyasal Düşüncesinde Terörizm.............................................................................143 (Terrorism in Armenian Political Thought) Dr. Hatem CABBARLI Türkiyeʼnin Dış Politikasına Etkisi Bakımından 2015ʼe Doğru Ermeni Lobisi ........177 Armenian Lobbying And its Effects on Turkish Foreign Policy Towards 2015 Ömer Faruk AN KİTAP ÖZETİ ........................................................................................................................................245 (BOOK SUMMARY) Çok Özel İşler ................................................................................................................................245 (“Des Affaires Tres Spéciales”) Pulat TACAR Ermeni Araştırmaları 3 2013, Sayı 45 GÜNCEL BELGELER.......................................................................................................................263 (LATEST DOCUMENTS) Belge 1: “A. Hovsepyan. Recognition of Armenian Genocide Shall Have A Perfect International-Legal Provision” RA Prosecutor General Aghvan Hovsepyanʼs Report at the Second Pan-Armenian Conference of Lawyers “Ahead of the 100th Anniversary of Armenian Genocide”. ........................................265 Belge 2: Declaration Adopted by the Participants of the Second Pan-Armenian Forum of Lawyers “Ahead of the 100th Anniversary of the Armenian Genocide” ...................................273 YAZIM KURALLARI ..........................................................................................................................277 (STYLE SHEET) 4 Ermeni Araştırmaları 2013, Sayı 45 EDİTÖRÜN NOTU (EDITORIAL NOTE) Dergimizin bu sayısı altı yazı, bir kitap özeti ve iki güncel belge içermektedir. Olaylar ve Yorumlar yazımızda iki konu ele alınmıştır. Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerine ilişkin birinci konu, soykırım iddialarının 100. yılı faaliyetleri arasında Ermenistan’ın Türkiye’den toprak talep etmesine temel teşkil etmek üzere bazı hukuki araştırmalar yapılmasına karar verilmiş olmasını incelemektedir. Ermenistan’ın Türkiye’den olası bir toprak talebi ciddi bir bunalıma yol açacağından bu konunun şimdiden yakından takibi gerekmektedir. Ele alınan ikinci konu soykırım iddialarıyla ilgilidir. Diaspora Ermenilerinin yoğun olduğu ülkelerde ve ayrıca Ermenistan’da soykırım iddialarına ilişkin faaliyetler Olaylar ve Yorumlar yazılarımızda her zaman yakından incelenmiştir. Ancak Diasporanın fazla güçlü olmadığı ülkelerde de bu tür faaliyetler yer almakta ve bunların da bilinmesinde yarar bulunmaktadır. Yazımızın “Bazı Ülkeler ve Uluslararası Gelişmeler” başlığı altında yirmi bir ülkede ve üç uluslararası kuruluşta soykırım iddialarına ilişkin faaliyetler anlatılmıştır. Doç. Dr. Emin Şıhaliev Ermenistan-Azerbaycan Çatışmasının yakın Geleceği: Barış, Savaş Yoksa Ateşkes mi? başlıklı yazısında Karabağ savaşının sonucu olarak Azerbaycan topraklarının %20’sinin işgal edilmiş olduğu 1994’ten beri Minsk Grubunun bu duruma bir çözüm bulmak çabalarının sonuç vermediği, Azerbaycan’ın gerekirse kuvvet kullanacağını bildirdiği, enerji kaynaklarından elde edilen gelirlerle askeri harcamalarını EDİTÖRÜN NOTU arttırdığı, bölgedeki güç dengesinin değiştiği, yeni bir savaş çıkması olasılığının belirdiği, Ermenistan’ın ise bu duruma Rusya ile askeri ve siyasi ilişkilerini arttırmakla cevap vermeye çalıştığı belirtilerek, Azerbaycan- Ermenistan anlaşmazlığının yakın geleceğinin barış, savaş yoksa ateşkes mi olacağı bazı varsayımsal senaryolar incelenerek belirlenmeye çalışmaktadır. İngiltere’nin Kafkasya Politikası ve Ermeni Sorunu (1917-1918) başlıklı yazısında Yrd. Doç. Dr. Tolga Başak Rusya’nın Birinci Dünya Savaşından çekilmesinden sonra “Hazar Koridoru”nun açık hale geldiği, diğer bir deyimle, Osmanlı ve/veya Alman güçlerinin Afganistan’a ve hatta Hindistan’a ulaşmalarının mümkün olduğu, bu durumun İngiltere’yi Doğu Anadolu ve Kafkasları savunmak için önlemler almak zorunda bıraktığı, bunun için Ermenilerin bölgede başvurabilecekleri ilk seçenek olduğu, silahlandırılan Ermenilerin Türk ve Almanlara karşı bir engel olarak kullanılmaya çalışıldığı, Ermenilerin bu rolü oynamaya razı olurken savaş sonrası için bazı taleplerde bulundukları ve İngiltere’den bağımsızlık vaadini aldıkları, ancak Ermenilerin kendilerinden bekleneni yerine getiremediği ve Türk ordusunun Doğu Ermeni Araştırmaları 5 2013, Sayı 45 Anadolu’yu ve ele geçirmesine ve Kafkaslarda ilerlemesini durduramadıkları, buna karşın bölgedeki Müslümanları
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