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Risk Probabilities Associated with Tornado Windspeeds, Proceedings I p. r76 PROCEEDING&SF THE SOYMPOSIUM ON TORNADOES" ASSESSMENT OF KNOWLEDGE AND IMPIJCATIONS FOR MAN June 22 - 24, 1976 Texas Tech University Lubbock, Texas Co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission National Science Foundation Wind Engineering Research Council American Meteorological Society American Society of Civil Engineers Institute for Disaster Research, Texas Tech University Symposium Co-chairmen Robert F. Abbey, Jr. Kishor C. Mehta APR Proceedings Edited by Richard E. Peterson U. S. NUiCLEAR F - . ... LUBRARY STio'p 55 PREFACE These proceedings are a compilation of the survey papers, the specialty papers, and the discussions presented at the Symposium on Tornadoes: Assessment of Knowledge and Implications for Man which was held June 22-24, 1976, on the campus of Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas. The symposium was attended by 156 professionals representing research and educational institutions, practicing engineers and meteorologists, the nuclear industry, the insurance industry, and federal and state agencies. A previous conference on the subject of tornadoes was held in May 1970 at the Univer- sity of Wisconsin. The discussions during that conference indicated that relatively little was known about tornadic storms at that time and that results from investigators represent- ing many disciplines were needed to decipher the mysteries of tornadoes. Since 1970, meteorologists and engineers have made significant advances in the knowledge concerning tornadic storms and the forces which are associated with these violent vortices. In view of this increased knowledge about tornadoes, it seemed appropriate to organize a symposium to focus attention on these advancements. The objectives of the symposium were fourfold: (1) to summarize existing knowledge regarding tornadic storms; (2) to discuss applications of tornado knowledge to societal problems; (3) to delineate future research needs in tornado technology; and (4) to promote dissemination of information between severe storm meteorologists, architect-engineers, and other building designers. In order to assemble the most knowledgeable individuals in all phases of tornado tech- nology, invitations were issued to 37 individuals. These invited experts presented papers and served as panelists during the discussion periods. The format of each session was carefully arranged to permit active participation by all the attendees. The large number of comments and contributions printed in these proceedings testify to the success of this arrangement and the enthusiastic interest of the participants. We greatly appreciate the high quality of the contributions to the symposium by the session chairmen, the speakers and the participants. Sponsoring agencies played a signifi- cant role in, assuring the success of the symposium by publicizing the symposium program. The financial assistance by the National Science Foundation (Grant ENG 76-11551) and by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is gratefully acknowledged. A special thanks are ex- tended to Dr. Richard E. Peterson for assuming the duties of the editor and bringing the symposium proceedings to fruition. Robert F. Abbey, Jr. Kishor C. Mehta Symposium Cochairmen i NOTICE These Proceedings contain papers presented at the Symposium on Tornadoes and written contributions submitted by the conference- participants. Symposium sponsors do not imply by their sponsor- ship any endorsement or concurrence with the statements made by individual authors in the Proceedings. All references and credits should be identified with individual authors and not with sym- posium sponsors. Copies of these Proceedings may be obtained from the Institute for Disaster Research, Texas Tech University, P.O. Box 4089, Lubbock, Texas 79409. (Cost $25.00, U.S., payment should accompany order). Cover illustration by Farcus Courtesy of the National Weather Service mmmmwwnzmmý TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PREFACE i EDITORS' NOTE li PART I: INVITED PAPERS SESSION 1: WINDSPEEDS IN TORNADOES AN ASSESSMENT OF WINDSPEEDS IN TORNADOES. J. H. Golden, Session Chairman. 5 PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ANALYSES OF TORNADOES. T. T. Fujita, A. D. Pearson, G. S. Forbes, T. A. Umenhofer, E. W. Pearl, and J. J. Tecson. 43 WINDSPEED ESTIMATES: ENGINEERING ANALYSES. K. C. Mehta. 89 SESSION 2: TORNADO VORTEX MODELS THEORETICAL MODELS OF THE TORNADO VORTEX. W. S. Lewellen, Session Chairman. 107 SOURCES OF ROTATION AND ENERGY IN THE TORNADO. D. K. Lilly. 145 LABORATORY SIMULATIONS OF TORNADOES. R. P. Davies-Jones. 151 SESSION 3: TORNADO PREDICTION, DETECTION AND ASSESSMENT OF RISK RISK PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADO WINDSPEEDS. R. F. Abbey, Jr., Session Chairman. 177 TORNADO PREDICTION. A. Pearson. 237 TORNADO DETECTION, TRACKING AND WARNING. G. L. Darkow. 243 SESSION 4: TORNADO-STRUCTURE INTERACTION: ENGINEERING IMPLICATIONS EVALUATION OF AND DESIGN FOR EXTREME TORNADO PHENOMENA. J. A. Shanahan, Session Chairman. 251 WIND LOADS ON STRUCTURES. J. E. Cermak and R. E. Akins. 283 EFFECTS OF TORNADOES ON MECHANICAL SYSTEMS. W. S. Gregory, P. R. Smith and K. S. Duerre. 313 iii Page SESSION 5: TORNADO-GENERATED MISSILES AND THEIR EFFECTS TORNADO-GENERATED MISSILES AND THEIR EFFECTS. J. R. McDonald, Session Chairman. 331 TRAJECTORIES OF TORNADO-BORNE MISSILES. J. F. Costello. 349 EVALUATION OF TORNADO MISSILE IMPACT EFFECTS ON STRUCTURES. J. V. Rotz. 363 SESSION 6: APPLICATIONS OF TORNADO TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS OF TORNADO TECHNOLOGY IN PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE. J. E. Minor, Session Chairman. 375 APPLICATION OF TORNADO TECHNOLOGY TO THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY. J. D. Stevenson. 393 PROTECTION OF PEOPLE AND ESSENTIAL FACILITIES. J. J. Abernethy. 407 USES OF TORNADO TECHNOLOGY IN AN INSURANCE OPERATION. D. G. Friedman. 419 SESSION 7: A NEW PERSPECTIVE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN TORNADO RESEARCH. E. Kessler, Session Chairman. 431 SESSION SUMMARIES. 437 PART II: CONTRIBUTED PAPERS AND COMMENTS SESSION 1 WIND PRESSURES FROM NINETY COMBINATIONS OF ROTATIONAL, TRANSLATIONAL, AND CONVERGENT VELOCITIES FOR EACH OF EIGHT VORTEX POSITIONS. G. W. Reynolds, Panelist. 449 INCREASING THE TORNADO DAMAGE RESISTANCE OF STRUCTURES. W. H. Hoecker, Panelist. 463 TORNADO PROBING WITH A PULSE-DOPPLER RADAR. D. S. Zrnic and R. J. Doviak. 465 ESTIMATION OF WINDSPEED BASED ON THE PENETRATION OF STRAWS AND SPLINTERS INTO WOOD. D. Keller and B. Vonnegut. 475 COMMENTS. A. Court, J. R. Hill, J. H. Golden, R. E. Peterson, R. T. Arnold, P. Dergarabedian, W. H. Hoecker, R. R. Fox, R. A. James, E. Pearl, K. Mehta, G. Forbes, F. Kornegay, D. S. Zrnic. 483 SESSION 2 PRELIMINARY WORK TOWARD "KILLING THE TORNADO" LABORATORY PARTIAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENT. C. C. Chang, Panelist. 493 ONE- AND TWO-CELL STRUCTURE IN TORNADOES. P. Dergarabedian and F. Fendell. 501 iv Page COMMENTS. C. C. Chang, F. H. Nicholson, P. Dergarabedian, F. E. Fendell, G. Forbes, C. T. Hsu, B. Fattahi, R. P. Davies-Jones, T. T. Fujita, R. E. Peterson, R. G. Watts, W. S. Lewellen. 523 SESSION 3 TORNADO DAMAGE PROBABILITIES. A. Court, Panelist. 545 NOTE ON ANALYTICAL MODELING IN ASSESSMENT OF TORNADO RISKS. Y.-K. Wen, Panelist. 551 TORNADO AND MESOCYCLONE DETECTION WITH SINGLE DOPPLER RADAR. D. W. Burgess and R. A. Brown. 557 COMMENTS. R. P. Davies-Jones, J. H. Golden, G. S. Forbes, A. Court, G. M. Hale, R. R. Fox. 565 SESSION 4 DESIGN AIR LOADINGS FOR TORNADIC WINDS. V. U. Muirhead, Panelist. 571 Comments. R. E. Peterson. 579 SESSION 5 VELOCITIES OF TORNADO-GENERATED MISSILES. R. C. Totti, Panelist. 583 TORNADO-GENERATED MISSILES - FULL-SCALE TESTING. A. E. Stephenson, Panelist. 599 MISSILE TESTS OF QUARTER-SCALE REINFORCED CONCRETE BARRIERS. Z. D. Jankov, J. A. Shanahan and M. P. White, Panelist. 605 AERODYNAMIC COEFFICIENTS OF MISSILE SHAPES. J. E. Marte, D. W. Kurtz and G. H. Redmann. 623 TORNADO-GENERATED MISSILE TRAJECTORY CALCULATIONS WITH A SIX-DEGREE-OF- FREEDOM MODEL. J. R. Radbill and G. H. Redmann. 633 LOCAL EFFECTS OF MISSILE IMPACT ON PROTECTIVE BARRIERS. J. J. Healey. 639 COMMENTS. W. E. Baker, M. P. White, J. V. Rotz, R. A. James, A. Court, J. R. McDonald. 641 SESSION 6 ESTIMATION OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DUE TO TORNADOES. G. C. Hart, Panelist. 645 COMMENTS. M. J. Helpa, A. R. Porush, E. Pearl, J. E. Minor. 667 SESSION 7 COMMENTS. C. C. Chang, A. Court, T. T. Fujita, E. Kessler, G. W. Reynolds, G. Chipman. 673 v A SYMPOSIUM ON TORNADOES 22-24 June 1976 PROGRAM SESSION 1: WINDSPEEDS IN TORNADOES 8:30 - 12:00 Tuesday Chairman: J. H. Golden Introduction Survey Paper - J' H. Golden Photogrammetric Analyses - T. T. Fujita Engineering Analyses - K. C. Mehta Doppler Radar Analyses - D. Zrnic Coffee Break Discussion by Speakers and Panelists ( W. H. Hoecker, G. W. Reynolds, P. C. Sinclair) Open Forum Discussion SESSION 2: TORNADO VORTEX MODELS 1:30 - 5:00 Tuesday Chairman: W. S. Lewellen Survey Paper - W. S. Lewellen Sources of Energy and Rotation - D. K. Lilly Laboratory Experiments - R. P. Davies-Jones Coffee Break and Photo Session Discussion by Speakers and Panelists (G. F. Carrier, C. C. Chang) Open Forum Discussion SESSION 3: TORNADO PREDICTION, DETECTION AND ASSESSMENT OF RISK 8:30 - 12:00 Wednesday Chairman: R. F. Abbey, Jr. Tornado Prediction - A. D. Pearson Tornado Detection - G. L. Darkow Doppler Radar Detection - A. W. Burgess Risk Probabilities - R. F. Abbey, Jr. Coffee Break Discussions by Speakers and Panelists (A. Court, Y. -K. Wen) Open Forum Discussion SESSION 4: TORNADO-STRUCTURE INTERACTION: ENGINEERING IMPLICATIONS 1:30 - 5:00 Wednesday Chairman: J. A. Shanahan Survey Paper - J. A. Shanahan Wind Loads on Structures - J. E. Cermak Effects on Mechanical Systems - W. S. Gregory Coffee Break Discussion by Speakers and Panelist (V. U. Muirhead) Open Forum Discussion SESSION 5: TORNADO-GENERATED MISSILES AND THEIR EFFECTS 7:00 - 10:00 Wednesday Chairman: J. R. McDonald Survey Paper - J. R. McDonald Injection and Flight Characteristics of Tornado-Generated Missiles - J. R. Costello (presented by L. Bell) Impact of Tornado-Generated Missiles - J. V. Rotz Coffee Break Discussion by Speakers and Panelists (R. C. lotti, A. E. Stephenson, R. M. L. Ting, M. P. White) Open Forum Discussion 679 RISK PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH TORNADO WINDSPEEDS Robert F. Abbey, Jr. Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
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