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Kansas Climate Profile

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Kansas Climate Profile Kansas Climate Profile by Robert Ferguson Table of Contents I. Summary for Policy Makers 3 II. Observed Climate Change in Kansas 4 A. Temperature 4 B. Precipitation 6 C. Drought 7 D. Floods 9 E. Tornadoes 13 F. World-Wide Statistics on Deaths 19 III. Public Health Impacts 20 A. Temperature-related Mortality 20 B. “Tropical” Diseases 22 IV. Future Climate projections 27 V. Emissions “Savings” 30 VI. Impact of climate-mitigation measures in Kansas 31 VII. Costs of Federal Regulation 34 VIII. Kansas Scientists reject un climate hypothesis 36 Summary IX. References 37 X. Some Essential Readings in Climate Science 39 Robert Ferguson, President [email protected] 5501 Merchants View Square # 209 Haymarket, VA 20169 www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org (202) 288-5699 2 I. Summary for Policy Makers n October 18, 2007, The Kansas Department of Health and OEnvironment rejected a request to build two new 700-megawatt coal-fired electricity generating power plants, citing concerns over the contribution of the proposed plants’ carbon dioxide emissions to climate change and “the potential harm to our environment and health.” In making this finding, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment had to ignore all of the known climate history of the state of Kansas, established climate science as well as the climate model projections for the future climate of the state of Kansas. Both observations and projections clearly demonstrate that: Kansans have neither experienced nor are predicted to experience negative effects from climate variations and trends There have been no overall changes in temperatures during the past 75 years Total precipitation has increased slightly, making more water available for all to use The frequency and severity of drought has decreased Kansan’s sensitivity to heat-waves has declined The number of severe storms, such as tornadoes is relatively unchanged “Tropical” diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, or West Nile Virus have been erroneously predicted to spread due to global warming Future projections indicate that Kansas will be less impacted by rising global temperatures – natural or otherwise – than any other state in the country Since China alone opens a new coal-fired plant every 4 - 7 days, any Kansas-derived “savings” of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere will be made up in a matter of days, effectively exporting emissions and jobs overseas. These facts make it inconceivable that the Kansas Department of Health and Environment would, on spurious grounds of “climate change,” deny the application to add more generating power aimed towards reducing the cost and insuring an abundant future supply of electricity, prosperity and general well-being to Kansans. 3 II. Observed Climate Change in Kansas A. Temperature veraged across the state of Kansas, the long-term annual temperature history shows a Aslightly upward trend over the past 112 years — the time since widespread records were first complied by the U.S. National Climatic Data Center — however, all of the temperature increase occurred more than 75 years ago, prior to the about 1930. Since then, from 1930 through 2006 there has actually been a slight decline in the statewide averaged temperature records, at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased. Recently, Kansas has experienced a string of warm years beginning in 1998, but generally the annual temperature during this warm period has not been exceptional. While globally, it is often reported that the last 10 years were the hottest on record, in Kansas, the story is much different. Only 2 of the 10 hottest years on record statewide occurred within the past 50 years, while 8 of the state’s 10 all-time hottest years, including the 6 hottest years on record, occurred prior to 1956—more than a half-century year ago. Obviously, “global warming” has not had much of an effect on temperatures in Kansas. Left: The 112-yr history of Kansas statewide average temperature indicates an overall warming trend, but in actuality, the entire rise occurred prior to about 1930. Right: The Kansas statewide temperature history from 1930- 4 2006 shows, in fact, that there has been a slight decline in temperatures over the past 77 years. (Data source: National Climatic Data Center, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/ks.html) Examining Kansas’ statewide temperature history since 1930 within the four seasons, one again finds no evidence of any “global warming” throughout any portion of the year. There has been a slight warming tendency during the spring season, but cooling tendencies dominate the summer and fall seasons, and there is little trend at all during the winter. Temperatures in recent years are unremarkable when set against the long-term temperature history of the state. Winter Summer Spring Fall Kansas’ long-term statewide average temperature history, by season, from winter 1930 through summer 2007, as compiled and maintained by the National Climate Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/ks.html). 5 B. Precipitation veraged across the state of Kansas for each of the past 112 years, statewide annual total Aprecipitation exhibits an increasing trend amounting to about 10 percent more precipitation falling per year at the end of the record than at the beginning. More important than the long-term trend, the record of Kansas’ annual precipitation is dominated by year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. During the wettest year in Kansas’ history, 1951, a total of 41.50 inches of precipitation fell, while just 5 years later, in 1956, the driest year on record, only 14.39 inches of precipitation fell. Recent annual totals show nothing unusual when compared to the observed historical record, having remained within a couple of inches of the long-term mean. Kansas’ long-term statewide annual precipitation history as compiled and maintained by the National Climate Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/ks.html) 6 C. Drought s is evident from Kansas’ long-term observed precipitation history, there are often strings Aof dry years, such as in the mid-1930s and the mid-1950s. Several dry years in a row can lead to widespread drought conditions. A dust storm approaching Colby, Kansas, Spring 1935. (photo source: http://www.oznet.ksu.edu/wdl/climate/conwk/index.asp?page=4) However, also evident from Kansas’ precipitation history there has been a long-term upward trend in the total precipitation across the state. Consequently, the frequency and intensity of drought conditions across the state has decreased.1 The Kansas PDSI history is also dominated by shorter term variations which largely reflect the state’s precipitation variability. Droughts in 1 As indicated by the history of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)—a standard measure of moisture conditions that takes into account both inputs from precipitation and losses from evaporation. 7 the mid-1930s and mid-1950s mark the most significant events of the past 112 years. Nothing in recent years has come close to these historic drought events. Kansas’ long-term statewide monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index values as compiled and maintained by the National Climate Data Center (http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp) A history of drought in Kansas can be traced back even further than we have direct rainfall measurements by analyzing information stored in annual tree ring patterns. For instance, Dr. Edward Cook and colleagues (Cook et al., 1999; 2004) were able to reconstruct a summertime PDSI record for central Kansas that extends back in time more than 1000 years. That paleoclimate moister record indicates that alternating multi-decadal periods of wet and dry conditions have occurred with semi-regularity during the past millennium, emphasizing that droughts are a normal part of the region’s climate system. In fact, the reconstructed drought history indicates that there have been many droughts in Kansas’ past that have been far more severe and longer lasting than anything witnessed during the past century, long before CO2 levels rose. When such natural droughts recur in the future, there will be heard unschooled claims that 8 they are induced by “global warming.” However, history shows drought has been for centuries a persistent, naturally occurring phenomenon in Kansas. The reconstructed summer (June, July, August) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for central Kansas from 997 A.D. to 2003 A.D. (National Climate Data Center, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pdsi.html). D. Floods ust as Kansas has been parched by drought in the past, it has been deluged by floodwaters. In J1951, one of the most significant floods in U. S. history inundated much of northeast Kansas as the Kansas River surged over its banks and swamped Kansas City, Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan and many smaller towns along the way. The 1951 mid-July flood was caused by rainfall exceeding 16 inches in some areas over the course of a week. At least 19 people were killed and 1,100 injured as flood waters covered more than 2 million acres. It also damaged or destroyed 45,000 homes and 17 major bridges causing about $2.5 billion (about $17 billion in 2000 dollars) in damages.2 9 Flooding at the confluence of the Kansas and Missouri Rivers in Kansas City, July 13, 1951 (photo source: http://ks.water.usgs.gov/Kansas/waterwatch/flood/fld51.photos.html). Scene from the 1951 flood in Topeka, Kansas, as victims are rescued from porches and rooftops (photo source: http://ks.water.usgs.gov/Kansas/waterwatch/flood/fld51.photos.html). 2 Kansas Water Science Center of the United States Geological Survey (http://ks.water.usgs.gov/Kansas/pubs/fact- sheets/fs.041-01.html) 10 In Lawrence, Kansas, mud-encrusted houses awaited their residents return (photo source: http://ks.water.usgs.gov/Kansas/waterwatch/flood/fld51.photos.html).
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