Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Public Transport Study

Report

Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Public Transport Study

Report

JMP Consultants Limited Mercantile Chambers 53 Bothwell Street Glasgow G2 6TS

T 0141 221 4030 F 0800 066 4367 E [email protected]

www.jmp.co.uk

Job No. SCT3098

Report No.

Prepared by Chris Yapp

Verified

Approved by John McDonald

Status Draft

Issue No. 2B

Date 23 October 2011

Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Public Transport Study

Report

Contents Amendments Record

This document has been issued and amended as follows:

Status/R evision Revision description Issue Number Approved By Date John Draft 1 14/09/2009 McDonald John Draft 2 02/08/2011 McDonald John Draft 2A 21/08/2011 McDonald John Draft 2B 23/10/2011 McDonald John Final 3 02/11/2011 McDonald

Contents

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 Background ...... 1 Scope of Work...... 1 The Proposed Development ...... 3 Structure of Report ...... 4 2 PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROVISION ...... 5 Rail ...... 5 Rail Policy...... 6 Rail Park and Ride ...... 8 Local Bus Services ...... 9 3 DEMAND FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT ...... 14 The Transport Assessment ...... 14 Trip Generation ...... 14 Mode split and trip distribution ...... 19 Full Development Trip Patterns ...... 31 4 PROVIDING ACCESS BY PUBLIC TRANSPORT ...... 35 Bus Services - Key Requirements ...... 35 Bus Network Proposals ...... 36 Demand, Revenue and Operating Costs ...... 37 Services linking Bishopton and Erskine ...... 37 Services to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport ...... 39 Services to Linwood and Bridge of Weir ...... 40 Services to Glasgow ...... 41 Rail Park and Ride ...... 43 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... 44

Tables and Figures

Table 1.1 Proposed development construction phasing ...... 3 Table 2.1 Schedule of bus services ...... 11 Table 2.2 Bishopton commuters - destinations by all modes ...... 12 Table 2.3 Bishopton rail commuter destinations ...... 12 Table 2.4 Bishopton bus commuter destinations ...... 12 Table 3.1 Residential people trip generation (peak) ...... 14 Table 3.2 Residential people trip generation (off-peak) ...... 15 Table 3.3 Employment people trip rates ...... 15 Table 3.4 Employment people trip generation ...... 15 Table 3.5 Primary school staff trip generation ...... 16 Table 3.6 Number of secondary school pupils ...... 17

Table 3.7 Food store people trip generation ...... 17 Table 3.8 Residential trip composition ...... 18 Table 3.9 Employment trip composition at 2026-2027 ...... 18 Table 3.10 External one-way trips - net totals on completion of development ...... 19 Table 3.11 Distance travelled to work by Bishopton residents ...... 20 Table 3.12 Council area of residence and workplace (1999-2002) ...... 20 Table 3.13 Proposed residential development - external trip distribution ...... 20 Table 3.14 Mode share by distance travelled to work by Bishopton residents ...... 21 Table 3.15 Residential AM peak external trip distribution by public transport mode ...... 21 Table 3.16 Residential PM peak external trip distribution by public transport mode ...... 22 Table 3.17 Residential off-peak external trip distribution by public transport mode ...... 22 Table 3.18 Distance travelled to work in Bishopton / Inchinnan ...... 23 Table 3.19 Council area of residence and workplace (1999-2002) ...... 23 Table 3.20 Proposed employment development - external trip distribution ...... 24 Table 3.21 Mode share by distance travelled to work in Bishopton ...... 24 Table 3.22 Employment AM peak external trip distribution by mode ...... 25 Table 3.23 Employment PM peak external trip distribution by mode ...... 25 Table 3.24 Employment off-peak external trip distribution by mode ...... 26 Table 3.25 AM peak external public transport trip distribution ...... 27 Table 3.26 PM peak external public transport trip distribution ...... 27 Table 3.27 Off-peak external public transport trip distribution ...... 28 Table 3.28 Internal trips generated at 2026/27 ...... 28 Table 3.29 Internal trips by bus ...... 28 Table 3.30 Bus trips - AM peak period ...... 29 Table 3.31 Bus trips - PM peak period ...... 30 Table 3.32 Bus trips – Off-peak period ...... 31 Table 3.33 Adjusted bus trips - AM peak period ...... 32 Table 3.34 Adjusted bus trips - PM peak period ...... 33 Table 3.35 Adjusted bus trips – Off-peak period ...... 34 Table 4.1 Bus operating cost assumptions ...... 37 Table 4.2 Enhanced bus services in Bishopton and Erskine - additional bus operating costs ...... 38 Table 4.3 Enhanced bus services in Bishopton and Erskine - financial performance ...... 39 Table 4.4 Bus service to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport – additional bus operating costs ...... 39 Table 4.5 Bus service to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport – financial performance...... 40 Table 4.6 Bus service to Linwood and Bridge of Weir – additional bus operating costs ...... 41 Table 4.7 Bus service to Linwood and Bridge of Weir – financial performance ...... 41 Table 4.8 Bus service to Renfrew and Glasgow city centre – additional bus operating costs ...... 42 Table 4.9 Bus service to Renfrew and Glasgow city centre – financial performance ...... 42 Table 5.1 Bishopton Park - Bus Network Proposals ...... 45 Table 5.2 Bishopton Park Bus Network Proposals – Financial Support ...... 45

Appendices

APPENDIX A Indicative Masterplan APPENDIX B Bishopton Station survey APPENDIX C Accessibility maps APPENDIX D Distribution of travel to work destinations APPENDIX E Bus Network Proposals - Plan APPENDIX F Bus Network Proposals - Description

1 Introduction

Background 1.1 The purpose of this study is to update the proposals for public transport to serve the proposed development on the former Royal Ordnance site to the south west of the railway line at Bishopton in Renfrewshire building on an earlier public transport study carried out for BAE Systems and Redrow Homes in 2006/07 and an update of the report completed during 2009 necessitated by a revision of the Transport Assessment in 2008. The 2009 update of the Public Transport Study was never formally issued.

1.2 The station in the village of Bishopton is served by frequent electric trains on the line from Gourock, Greenock and Wemyss Bay to Glasgow. There have been recent changes to the local rail passenger service including an increase in train capacity as the result of deployment by First ScotRail of new and longer electric multiple units on the Inverclyde and Ayr Lines.

1.3 The railway station is the focal point for the bus services that serve the local community. There have been changes to the local bus route network. There is still an hourly local bus service circulating around the village and an hourly service to Erskine. The solitary morning peak period journey from Bishopton to Glasgow via Erskine has been withdrawn, but there is now a service between Greenock and Clydebank via Bishopton that has involved the introduction of a regular bus service on Greenock Road to the west of Bishopton. There is now a limited service of four buses each way on Sundays on the Greenock to Clydebank route but there are no other Sunday services and no evening services. Hence, people living in the village are heavily dependent upon rail to provide access by public transport to destinations outside the immediate locality.

1.4 The analysis draws upon Phasing Plans last updated in May 2010 and the Transport Assessment for the site that was updated in October 2008 to provide quantification of potential demand for travel by bus and rail. The Transport Assessment also provides a local and regional distribution of trips generated by the development.

Scope of Work 1.5 In the previous public transport studies in 2007 and 2009, the output of the Transport Assessment was used to identify places that needed to be linked with Bishopton by public transport and to provide a basis for quantifying demand for travel by bus. Proposals were developed for new or improved bus services to provide access for people living or working in the proposed development. Estimates were provided of the additional cost of introducing new or extended bus services, and forecasts were made of the additional patronage and revenue expected to be generated. This provided the basis for an assessment of the financial sustainability of proposed bus services and an estimate of the level of financial support that would be necessary as the development takes place.

1.6 There is now a Section 75 Agreement in place with Renfrewshire Council that includes a total sum of £714,000 to contribute towards the cost of providing financial support for improvements to local bus services needed to meet growing demand for sustainable travel as the planned Bishopton developments take place.

1.7 In addition, there is a Planning Condition to be satisfied that is worded as follows: “Prior to the commencement of any development on the site details of the provision of either new or extended bus services within the development, including details of operating hours, frequency of services, route and timescale for introduction, together with evidence of an agreement with a public transport

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operator to provide this service, shall be submitted to and approved in writing by the Planning Authority, after consultation with Transport Scotland Trunk Road Network Management Directorate.”

1.8 In addition to providing updated output on bus operating costs, potential revenues and estimated bus subsidy, this report also identifies in Chapters 4 and 5 a mechanism agreed during discussion with Strathclyde Partnership for Transport (SPT) for securing the operation of the proposed new or extended bus services. This report and the mechanism for the securing of the proposed new or extended bus services require consultation with the Transport Scotland Trunk Road Network Management Directorate in addition to submission to the Planning Authority.

1.9 This latest version of the Public Transport Study uses output from the latest Phasing Plans and Transport Assessment as a basis for forecasting demand for travel by public transport that will be generated by the proposed development. It reflects the current proposals for the scale and phasing of development. Changes to the bus route network serving Bishopton in the period since the last update of the Public Transport Study and planned changes advised by SPT (Strathclyde Partnership for Transport) at a meeting on 8 th August 2011 mean that there are some changes to the proposals for providing improved local bus services.

1.10 When the original Transport Assessment and Public Transport Study were prepared in 2006/07 the development was proposed to include 2,600 residential units. When the Public Transport Study was updated in 2009 it had already been decided to reduce the total number of housing units from 2,600 to 2,500.

1.11 The latest Transport Assessment dated October 2008 is based on a technical analysis that assumes 2,600 residential units because, if the highway proposals could be shown to work with the greater number of trips that would be generated by 2,600 rather than 2,500 housing units, it would prove that the highway proposals are robust. When the Public Transport Study was updated in 2009 it was decided that it would not be prudent to adopt the same approach for predicting public transport demand as the result would be an over-estimate of the demand and revenue generated by the proposed development and an under-estimate of any financial support needed for the additional public transport services. The same approach is adopted in this update of the Public Transport Study.

1.12 The ‘public transport’ analysis differs from the assessment of traffic impact in two other ways:

• More account needs to be taken of bus patronage and revenue from internal trips within Bishopton which will contribute to the viability of the local bus service in the community.

• An off-peak analysis is needed to build up a picture of total potential additional bus patronage and revenue predicted to arise as a result of the proposed development. 1.13 The access strategy is based on the construction of new northern and southern access roads at the outset of the development in order to ensure that both housing and employment development can take place during the early phases of the development. During Phase 2 the construction of development roads completes a through route connecting the northern and southern access roads that could be used by local bus services. During the remaining phases of construction, further extension of local bus services will be required in order to ensure that all parts of the whole site are within reasonable walking distance of bus stops.

1.14 The objective remains to develop proposals for new or extended bus services that will become financially self-sustaining once demand is maximised on completion of development. The proposals will be supported by a Travel Plan with complementary objectives. Demand for bus

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services will build up over time as development proceeds. There is also a need to provide reasonably attractive public transport choices for people moving in to the development and for employees of companies choosing to locate in the development at the formative stage of their travel behaviour in order to minimise traffic impact. There will therefore be a need to provide financial support to bridge the gap between operating cost and revenue as demand builds up towards forecast levels.

1.15 The information is presented in the same format as in previous reports and the study process is explained in full in order that this report can function as a freestanding document. This report takes account of all of the changes in the public transport policy environment that have taken place in recent years.

The Proposed Development Form and Content of Development 1.16 The proposed development will predominantly consist of residential, employment, commercial and community facilities. The current masterplan for the proposed development can be seen at Appendix A.

Phasing of Development 1.17 There have been changes to the start date and phasing of development since completion of the 2009 update of the Public Transport Study. In 2009 the intention was that development would begin in 2010 and extend over a period of 14 years to 2023 with six discrete phases of development.

1.18 The current plan is for work on Phase 1 of the development to begin in 2012 and for the development to be completed in five phases with final completion in 2027. The housing, employment and community content of each Phase of development is shown in Table 1.1. It shows the employment land areas in the appropriate time bands when the serviced plots would become available. This may well not equate directly to the start of transport activity associated with these areas as planning consent for individual plots will need to be obtained and the development will still have to be constructed, let and occupied.

Table 1.1 Proposed development construction phasing

Phases of Output development Housing (units) Employment (ha) Community

Phase Cumulative Phase Cumulative

2012-2016 745 745 19.13 19.13 Health Centre, Village 2017-2018 388 1133 2.86 21.99 Square, Library, Village Hall, Recreation 2019-2022 617 1750 10.10 32.09 Ground, Primary School. 2023-2025 444 2194 13.94 46.03 --- 2026-2027 306 2500 0.00 46.03 --- 2,500 46.03 --- Cass Associates Phasing Plans (May 2010)

1.19 There is no overall change to the quantum of housing or employment development compared with the last update of the Public Transport Study in 2009.

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Structure of Report 1.20 The report continues in Chapter 2 with a review of existing public transport services in Bishopton and the surrounding area; an assessment of proposed rail schemes that will have an impact on local rail passenger services passing through Bishopton; and reviews of public transport accessibility and travel to work patterns revealed by the Census 2001.

1.21 Chapter 3 contains an assessment of trip generation, trip distribution and mode share. It also provides quantification of potential demand for travel between Bishopton and a range of destinations by bus on completion of each of the six phases of development.

1.22 Chapter 4 contains our proposals and assessments of additional annual cost and revenue for each proposed new or improved bus service at each phase of development. It concludes with a review of the level of financial support needed for each proposed bus service at each phase of development.

1.23 An overall summary is provided in Chapter 5.

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2 Public Transport Provision

Rail Rail Passenger Services 2.1 Bishopton is an intermediate station on the electrified Inverclyde Line linking Gourock and Wemyss Bay with Paisley and Glasgow Central. Rail passenger services are operated by First ScotRail under the terms of a franchise that commenced in October 2004 and was for an initial period of seven years extendable by a further three years. The franchise is now expected to run until November 2014.

2.2 In daytime on weekdays and Saturdays Bishopton is served by three trains an hour in each direction between Glasgow Central and Gourock and a fourth between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay. Trains serving Bishopton have three different stopping patterns:

• Two trains each hour between Glasgow Central and Gourock serve all stations in each direction.

• The third “Gourock” train is limited stop and serves only Port Glasgow, Bishopton and Paisley Gilmour Street between Greenock Central and Glasgow Central.

• “Wemyss Bay” trains are also limited stop serving only Bishopton and Paisley Gilmour Street between Port Glasgow and Glasgow Central. 2.3 These services do not combine to provide an even headway. The effect of operating a mixture of limited stop and all stations services means that headways are uneven in both directions at Bishopton Station.

2.4 In evenings on weekdays and Saturdays there are three trains in each direction each hour – one all stations between Glasgow and Gourock, one all stations between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay and one limited stop between Glasgow and Gourock. In daytime and early evening on Sundays there is an hourly train serving all stations between Glasgow and Gourock and an hourly limited stop service between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay. In late evenings on Sundays at present trains are replaced by buses as a result of planned engineering works.

2.5 All of the stations on the Inverclyde Line can accommodate trains of at least six cars but not all trains in the peak are of the maximum length. New Class 380 Desiro electric multiple units have been deployed on the Inverclyde and Ayr passenger services replacing older Class 314 and Class 334 Juniper multiple units. All of the older units were formed into trains of three cars in length whereas the new Class 380 units are a mix of three and four car trains resulting in an increase in capacity on all of those services that were previously operated by three car trains. Some peak period services can be operated by two units coupled together to give six or seven car trains. Any seven car trains require ‘selective door opening’ control when calling at stations with platforms with a length capable of accommodating only six car trains.

2.6 One of the key issues that is addressed in this study is the impact of increased numbers of rail passengers generated by the proposed development on rail passenger services on the Inverclyde Line. Three issues are addressed – train passenger carrying capacity on weekday peak period services to and from Glasgow Central and the related issues of line capacity between Paisley and Glasgow Central and platform capacity at Glasgow Central Station.

2.7 Bishopton has a long platform; the length required for passenger use is that needed to accommodate six cars and an overrun area. This length is 146 metres on the basis of six cars

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each of 24 metres in length plus an overrun area of 2.0 metres in compliance with the requirements set out in Railway Safety Principles and Guidance, Part 2, Section B, Guidance on Stations (HSE, HM Railway Inspectorate).

Bishopton Station 2.8 Bishopton Station is staffed and therefore has a booking and enquiry office in the station building. The booking office is open from 06:25 until 20:30 on weekdays and Saturdays and for one shift on Sundays. The station is not fully accessible. Although there is level access to Platform 1 and the booking office, the steep ramp to Platform 2 does not comply with the guidance provided by Railway Group Standards (Railway and Safety Standards Board) or Railway Safety Principles and Guidance (HM Railway Inspectorate). The station, car park and cycle parking benefit from CCTV surveillance.

2.9 There are bus/rail interchange facilities at Bishopton. There is a bus turning circle and bus stance with a passenger shelter on the east side of the railway at the entrance to the main station car park.

2.10 Bishopton Station has substantial car parking with around 200 parking spaces including five designated for parking by disabled drivers. The majority of spaces are in the main car park on the north east side of the railway including 11 spaces on the east side of the station forecourt. There is an additional car park on the south side of the railway made available by BAE Systems at the request of Renfrewshire Council to reduce parking pressure on the streets around the station. Cycle lockers are also provided at the station.

Rail Policy Scotland’s Railways and the High Level Output Statement 2.11 Devolution of responsibility for the Scottish rail network to the Scottish Assembly following the Railways Act 2005 provided an opportunity for Government to reassess the role of the rail network in Scotland. Consultation on the strategic priorities for Scotland’s rail network helped to inform development of the National Transport Strategy.

2.12 Increased use of the rail network is a central element of Scottish Ministers’ plans for effective delivery of its rail objectives. Scottish Ministers published Scotland’s Railways in December 2006 to promote sustainable economic growth and set the context for the development of sustainable transport solutions for Scotland for a period of 20-25 years. This strategy promotes connectivity between major towns and cities, supports faster journey times on key routes and aims to improve quality, accessibility and affordability of Scotland’s railways as well as reducing emissions.

2.13 This strategy under-pinned the High Level Output Specification (HLOS) published by Scottish Ministers in July 2007. The HLOS detailed Scottish Ministers’ expectations for investment in and outputs from the rail network for the period 2009-2014 (Control Period 4 - CP4). The HLOS formed the basis for the development of that part of the Network Rail Strategic Business Plan that relates to Scotland.

2.14 In December 2008 Transport Scotland published its Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) covering a period of 20 years and identifying Transport Scotland’s priority schemes for capital investment. One of the priorities identified for investment was rail infrastructure on the routes between Ayrshire, Inverclyde and Glasgow.

Renfrewshire Local Plan 2006 2.15 The Local Plan objectives relating to transport include encouragement for the more sustainable forms of transport; assessing the transportation implications of development proposals and

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ensuring that satisfactory provision is made for transport facilities including public transport. Local Plan Policy SS2 of the Local Plan sets out the Council’s requirements for the Bishopton site which include encouraging more sustainable forms of transport, making provision for and increasing the attractiveness of public transport; managing the demand for parking; and developing opportunities to access to employment, housing and community facilities by public transport.

The Scotland Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) 2.16 In March 2007 Network Rail published its Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) for Scotland. The purpose of the RUS was to provide assessments of rail capacity, passenger and freight demand, operational performance and cost in order to identify gaps in provision, need for investment in infrastructure, and programmes for the maintenance and renewal of rail infrastructure. The timing of the RUS meant that it was able to reflect Scottish Government objectives set out in Scotland’s Railways, but it did pre-date publication of the HLOS published by Scottish Ministers in July 2007.

2.17 The RUS identified the congested approaches to Glasgow Central, the congested section of line between Paisley Gilmour St and Glasgow Central High Level, restricted platform lengths at some stations, and inadequate platform capacity at most significantly Glasgow Central Station among the most significant capacity constraints on Scotland’s rail network. Two projects of relevance to the Inverclyde area were identified in the RUS:

• A scheme to increase capacity at Glasgow Central and on the line between Paisley and Glasgow in conjunction with a new Glasgow Airport Rail Link (GARL).

• The extension of platforms at some stations on the Inverclyde Line to facilitate the introduction of new rail rolling stock combined with selective door opening technology to allow the operation of seven car trains. 2.18 The primary purpose of the GARL project was to provide a new link between Glasgow city centre and Glasgow Airport. The project included construction of a new branch line to serve the airport terminal and investment in railway infrastructure between Glasgow Central Station and Paisley. The necessary enabling legislation completed its passage through the Scottish Parliament and received Royal Assent in 2007. In September 2009 Scottish Ministers announced the cancellation of the part of the project that would have provided a direct rail link to the airport and instructed continuation of the capacity enhancement work on the main line between Glasgow Central and Paisley.

2.19 The capacity enhancement work included the following elements – two new platforms at Glasgow Central Station, upgrading of overhead line equipment between Glasgow and Paisley, and construction of a third new line between Glasgow and Paisley. By June 2011 the overhead power line work had been completed, the new platforms at Glasgow Central were operational and work was in progress on the construction of the third track and associated signalling work.

Route Plan Q Scotland West 2.20 Network Rail started publishing ‘Route Plans’ in April 2008 and now update them on an annual basis. Their purpose is to provide an overview of the rail network on an area-by-area basis covering passenger and freight demand, opportunities and constraints, programmed investment in capacity enhancement and the renewals programme. The Inverclyde Lines are now covered by Route Plan Q published in April 2010 and an update published in April 2011.

2.21 Route Plan Q provides several useful statistics – 31% of all commuting trips into Glasgow in the morning peak are made by rail; growth in demand for rail travel has increased significantly in recent years; and the peak load factor on ‘Electrics South West’ is stated to be 116% (this pre-dated the capacity increase achieved by delivery and deployment of the new class 389 trains). It also

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indicates that the new rolling stock and increases in train and line capacity will, in themselves, generate additional rail passenger demand.

The Scotland Generation Two RUS Network Rail published the Scotland Generation Two RUS in June 2011. This RUS is intended to assist Ministers with the development of the Scottish HLOS for Control Period 5 covering the period 2014-2019 and subsequent Control Periods. It identified a need for further capacity enhancement measures at Glasgow Central in order to accommodate predicted growth in passenger traffic.

Crossrail 2.22 The objective of the Crossrail project was operate cross-city rail passenger services on new rail lines linking the rail networks to the south-east and north-west of Glasgow. One benefit to capacity on the Inverclyde line would have been the relief of pressure on platform capacity at Glasgow Central Station. However, the scheme did not feature in Scotland’s Railways, the 2007 RUS or the 2008 Strategic Projects Review.

Train capacity and the Bishopton development 2.23 All of the stations on the Inverclyde Line can handle trains formed of six cars but, in the peak hour, many of the trains are of three cars in length. The reason is that, under current operations at Glasgow Central, platforms are often shared by two trains and there is limited scope for accommodating more six car trains. The GARL project will have the effect of increasing capacity on the approaches to Central Station and in the station itself.

2.24 In July 2008 a decision was announced to deploy an additional 130 electric multiple unit carriages to enter service from the end of 2010. One of the purposes of this new rolling stock is to provide additional capacity on the Inverclyde and Ayrshire Lines.

2.25 The lengthy timescale of the proposed development at Bishopton will allow the impact of the additional rolling stock and the implementation of GARL to provide additional capacity to absorb increased demand for rail travel arising from the development.

2.26 At the Structure Plan EIP in May 2007, Network Rail commented that they did not envisage anything within the currently envisaged improvements to the rail network and rolling-stock that would suggest that the Bishopton development could not be accommodated.

Rail Park and Ride Demand for Park and Ride 2.27 On a typical weekday, the station car parks are full and there is a substantial overflow of parking by train users on to the adjoining streets. Although it is difficult to distinguish rail park and ride from on-street parking by local residents, observation IN 2006 suggested that Bishopton Station attracted about 170 park and ride cars on weekdays. The figure was nearer 200 following implementation of the additional car-parking on the BAE Systems site.

2.28 An interview survey was undertaken by JMP on a weekday morning in mid-December 2005 with the permission of First ScotRail in order to establish the proportions of rail users using different modes to access the station and the home locations of rail users. A total of 197 interviews were completed.

2.29 The primary objective of the survey was to determine the scale of park and ride demand generated by residents of Bishopton in order to establish a current rail park and ride trip rate to be applied to the new residential development to determine the number of additional parking spaces that will be

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required at the rail station. At that time, there was also a suggested need to provide additional parking spaces to cater for the current on-street overflow from the existing rail station car park – an issue that was addressed by the opening up of the car park on the BAE site.

2.30 A copy of the survey questionnaire and a summary of the responses are provided at Appendix B. The key points that emerged from analysis of the interview data are summarised below:

• 49% of interviewees walked to the station, 47.5% arrived by car and only 2.5% by bus and 1% by taxi.

• 73% of car users were drivers and the remaining 27% were passengers.

• 71% of station users started their journeys in Bishopton, 21% in Erskine and the remainder were from further afield.

• The main destinations for train users were Glasgow (71%) and Paisley (18%) – only 6% of users were travelling to destinations to the west.

• The predominant journey purpose was travel to work (78%) with education and shopping accounting for 7% and 10% respectively.

• 65% of trips were made on 5 days or more each week, 20% on 2-4 days each week and 12% of journeys were made less than weekly. 2.31 It is possible to draw a number of conclusions from the survey results: It can be assumed that the 49% of interviewees that walked to the station live in Bishopton. The remaining 22% of interviewees living in Bishopton and all interviewees from Erskine can be assumed to arrive by car or bus. It can also be assumed that the 8% of interviewees from further away all arrived by car.

2.32 Of the 140 people from Bishopton interviewed at the rail station, 97 arrived on foot and five by bus. Of the remaining 38 that arrived by car, 28 (73%) were car drivers. Application of the same percentage to the 57 car users from Erskine and further afield, indicates that 42 were car drivers. Hence, 70 of the interviewees were car drivers parking their vehicles at the station.

2.33 A factor of 2.4 must be applied in order to “gross up” the interview sample of 70 car drivers to represent the total number of 170 cars parked at the station. On this basis, 68 of the parked cars originate in Bishopton, 72 in Erskine and 29 in places further away.

Local Bus Services Bus Network 2.34 The railway station is the focal point for public transport in Bishopton. The First ScotRail Inverclyde service from Gourock and Wemyss Bay to Paisley and Glasgow Central provides the principal means of access to the village by public transport.

2.35 When the examination of bus services was first undertaken in 2005, there was a limited network of local bus services providing little more than a local distributor service and a link to Erskine.

2.36 Arriva Scotland West operated a commercial service (Service 27) between Bishopton, Erskine, Renfrew, the Braehead Shopping Centre and Glasgow city centre in the daytime on Mondays to Saturdays. That service was withdrawn by Arriva in 2005 as it was not viable. In 2009 one weekday morning peak period journey to Erskine, Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow city centre remained on Service 23 with no corresponding return journey in the evening peak period. That solitary journey has now been withdrawn. Arriva Services 23, 23a and X23 continue to provide the

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main bus link between Bargarran, Erskine, Renfrew and Glasgow. Arriva Services 22 and 22C provide links between Clydebank, Bargarran, Erskine and Paisley.

2.37 SPT continues to provide financial support for two local bus services on Mondays to Saturdays operated using a single accessible vehicle. The two services both operate hourly – Service 520 is the Bishopton Local Service and Service 521 provides a link between Bishopton and the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine. First and last journeys on both services are sufficiently are sufficiently early and late to cater for bus/rail interchange by Glasgow commuters. Service 521 provides connections at Erskine onto Arriva services to Renfrew, Glasgow and Paisley. The operator of Services 520 and 521 has changed since 2009 with Scottish Travel taking over the operation of the service from Slaemuir Coaches.

2.38 At a meeting on 8 th August 2011, SPT advised that Service 521 was to be diverted via Mainshill in Erskine in order to replace another bus service that is to be withdrawn. The implication is that the vehicle operating Services 520/521 will become fully utilised and there will no longer be any scope for using it to extend Service 520 into the new development.

2.39 Since the last assessment Scottish Travel has introduced a new Service X22 linking Greenock, Port Glasgow, Bishopton, the Hewlett Packard Works near Bishopton and Clydebank. The service was introduced with financial support from SPT in the form of Network Enhancement Grant, a form of funding intended to ‘kickstart’ a new or enhanced service by providing financial support as demand builds towards a break even position. It is understood that this service is nearing the end of its period of Network Enhancement Grant. SPT advice is that it may be possible to make use of the resource provided by Service X22 as a substitute for extension of Service 520 into the development.

2.40 Service X22 operates hourly in each direction in daytime on weekdays and Saturdays and there are four journeys each way on Sundays. First and departures towards Clydebank are at 07:30 and 17:30 whilst the first and last buses towards Greenock are at 08:25 and 18:25.

2.41 Bishopton, Erskine and Renfrew are served by the Renfrew MyBus demand responsive Service M45 provided for people who are unable to use or have difficulty in using mainstream public transport. Bishopton is also a possible destination for the Gryffe Valley MyBus Service 965 but it is not intended to meet the travel needs of Bishopton residents. Travel on both services must be booked in advance and services are available between 09:00 and 18:00 daily.

2.42 Eligibility criteria restrict use to people aged over 80 years, blind people, recipients of particular DSS benefits (e.g. attendance allowance, disability living allowance paid at the higher mobility rate), and people with medical evidence of their inability to use buses and trains permanently or temporarily. The service provides access from home to local facilities.

2.43 It is assumed that inclusion of the Bishopton development area in the MyBus M45 catchment area will happen automatically and will not require any financial support from the Section 75 provision for the development.

2.44 Table 2.1 identifies the main bus services linking Bishopton with neighbouring centres.

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Table 2.1 Schedule of bus services

Operator Service Route Frequency Frequency (Sat) Frequency No. (Mon –Fri) (Sun)

Scottish Travel X22 Greenock – Every Hour (not Every Hour (not 4 journeys each Bishopton - evenings) evenings) way Clydebank 520 Bishopton - Every Hour (not Every Hour (not No Service Bishopton Station evenings) evenings) 521 Erskine - Bishopton Every Hour (not Every Hour (not No Service Station evenings) evenings) Colchri Ltd MyBus 965 Flexible - Gryffe Demand Demand Demand Valley Ring ‘n’ Ride responsive responsive responsive (09:00-18:00) (09:00-18:00) (09:00-18:00) Colchri Ltd MyBus M45 Flexible - Renfrew Demand Demand Demand Dial a Bus responsive responsive responsive (09:00-18:00) (09:00-18:00) (09:00-18:00) Published bus maps and timetables (July 2011).

Accessibility 2.45 The purpose of considering accessibility in this study is to show travel times from Bishopton to key destinations using public transport. The program Accession was used to generate maps showing travel time bands by bus only and by bus or rail for the AM peak period (07:00-09:00) from an origin on Greenock Road at the junction with Station Road. Appendix C contains the output of this process in the form of two maps – one showing travel times achievable by bus and rail and one showing travel times by bus only. The maps have been revised to take account of the current network of services.

2.46 The map shows the generally poor level of accessibility to and from Bishopton by bus. If rail and bus are considered together the level of accessibility is much improved.

Travel to Work 2.47 The journey to work information used in this study was obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland’s online 2001 Census database. This data provides an insight into the main commuter destinations of workers living in Bishopton. As these journeys are being made to the workplace it can be assumed that the great majority of outbound journeys will be made before 10:00 on weekdays.

2.48 Data derived from the 2001 Census indicates that approximately 2,100 commuter trips originate within Bishopton. Table 2.2 illustrates that approximately 46% of these commuters stay within the village to work whilst 21% are destined for Paisley, Glenburn and the surrounding area. Glasgow is the fourth most popular workplace for Bishopton residents, being the destination of approximately 164 (8%) commuters.

2.49 Table 2.3 presents the approximate number of commuters from Bishopton who travel to work by train and indicates that around 140 people are currently travelling by this mode. Glasgow is the most popular destination for rail commuters, with approximately 51 (36%) commuters heading for the city. Central Paisley is the second most popular destination with around 20-30 commuters from Bishopton travelling there.

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Table 2.2 Bishopton commuters - destinations by all modes

Destination Total Commuters - all modes Percentage

Bishopton 992 46 Paisley, Glenburn & surrounds 453 21 Glasgow 164 8 Greenock & Port Glasgow 99 5 Erskine 19 1 East Kilbride 12 1 All other destinations 410 19 Total 2149 - JMP Consultants Ltd

Table 2.3 Bishopton rail commuter destinations

Destination Total Commuters by Train Percentage

Glasgow 51 36 Paisley 24 17 Greenock 6 4 Kilmalcom 3 2 Erskine 3 2 All other destinations 54 38 Total 141 - Census 2001

2.50 An approximate guide to the number of commuters travelling by bus from Bishopton is presented in Table 2.4. In the interview survey a total of just 49 people stated that they used bus to commute to their workplace from their home in Bishopton. This mode therefore constitutes just over 2% of all commuter journeys. Paisley and the surrounding area emerge as the main workplace destinations for commuters travelling from Bishopton, with approximately 30 commuter trips (15%) ending here. This compares with 13% of all commuter trips which end in the second most popular destination of Erskine.

Table 2.4 Bishopton bus commuter destinations

Destination Total Commuters by Bus Percentage

Paisley & surrounds 15 31 Erskine 13 27 Linwood 6 12 Glenburn 6 12 Bishopton 3 6 Govan 3 6 Kernock Point 3 6 All other destinations 0 0 Total 49 --- JMP Consultants Ltd

2.51 Maps illustrating the distribution of commuter destinations are provided in Appendix D. They are based on numbers of trips made to destination output areas – which can vary considerably in size

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depending on whether they are in urban or rural locations. The purpose is to provide a picture of distribution to support the quantitative information given in Tables 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4.

2.52 The “all modes” map shows a wide range of commuter destinations; the “rail” map shows that work trips made by train have destinations in Glasgow and places that are accessible by bus through interchange at rail stations; whilst the “bus” map shows the limited range of commuter destinations.

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3 Demand for Public Transport

The Transport Assessment 3.1 The Transport Assessment undertaken in 2008 remains current and has been used together with information derived from a variety of other sources to quantify the potential market for public transport in order to provide a basis for the development of financially sustainable proposals for providing essential links by developing the local bus network.

3.2 The Transport Assessment (TA) focuses on demand for travel in peak hours in order to provide a basis for assessing the network impact of the additional traffic generated by the proposed development. Focusing on the peak period is also an appropriate way of assessing the impact of the development in terms of the ability of existing train capacity to cater for additional demand for local rail passenger services.

3.3 The scale of provision of new or improved local bus services is also governed by the need to cater for demand in peak periods but, in addition, it is also essential to make an estimate of total demand at peak and off-peak times in order to forecast annual revenue and, by comparison with annual operating costs, to quantify any need for revenue support and to establish prospects for long term financial sustainability. The implication is that trip rates are needed for the peak periods rather than simply the AM and PM peak hours and for off-peak times. It is for this reason that the trip rates in this report differ from those in the Transport Assessment.

Trip Generation Residential Development 3.4 The number of people trips generated by the development has been estimated from the TRICS trip generation database. Tables 3.1 and 3.2 indicate the residential trips rates obtained and the resultant people trips associated with the residential element of the proposed development.

Table 3.1 Residential people trip generation (peak)

Phase Year Houses AM Peak Period PM Peak Period 07:00-09:00 16:00-18:00

IN Out Total In Out Total

Residential Trip 0.33 1.64 1.97 1.24 0.89 2.13 Rate (per house) Residential Trips 1 2012-2016 745 246 1222 1468 924 663 1587 2 2017-2018 1133 374 1858 2232 1405 1008 2413 3 2019-2022 1750 578 2870 3448 2170 1558 3728 4 2023-2025 2194 724 3598 4322 2721 1953 4673 5 2026-2027 2500 825 4100 4925 3100 2225 5325

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Table 3.2 Residential people trip generation (off-peak)

Phase Year Houses Weekday inter-peak Weekday evening 09:00-16:00 18:00-22:00

IN Out Total In Out Total

Residential Trip 2.22 2.72 4.95 0.53 0.56 1.09 Rate (per house) Residential Trips 1 2012-2016 745 1654 2026 3680 395 417 812 2 2017-2018 1133 2515 3082 5597 600 634 1235 3 2019-2022 1750 3885 4760 8645 928 980 1908 4 2023-2025 2194 4871 5968 10838 1163 1229 2391 5 2026-2027 2500 5550 6800 12350 1325 1400 2725

Employment Development 3.5 The people trip generation of the main employment element has been based on the assumption that the employment element will have a total GFA of 138,000m 2. The trip rates used are taken from the latest version of the Transport Assessment and are based on the assumption that 80% of the GFA will be office space, 10% will be industrial and 10% will be warehousing.

3.6 People trip rates as indicated by Table 3.3 were adopted for calculating the number of trips associated with the development’s main employment elements. The resulting numbers of trips are shown in Table 3.4. As the latest Transport Assessment does not provide information for the inter- peak period, people trip rates have been taken from the TRICS database for the inter-peak period (09:00-16:00).

Table 3.3 Employment people trip rates

Trip generation rates (per AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Weekday inter-peak 100m 2 GFA) In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total

Business park (based on 1.43 0.10 1.53 0.12 1.09 1.21 3.24 1.75 4.99 138,000m 2) Employment People Trips 1973 138 2111 166 1504 1670 4471 2415 6886 (based on 138,000m 2)

Table 3.4 Employment people trip generation

Phase and year GFA(m 2) AM peak period PM peak period Off-peak

In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total

1 2012-2016 57350 820 57 877 69 625 694 1858 1004 2862 2 2017-2018 65930 943 66 1009 79 719 798 2136 1154 3290 3 2019-2022 96210 1376 96 1472 115 1049 1164 3117 1684 4801 4 2023-2025 138000 1973 138 2111 166 1504 1670 4471 2415 6886 5 2026-2027 138000 1973 138 2111 166 1504 1670 4471 2415 6886

Student trip rates 3.7 There will be a large number of student trips generated by the proposed development. Most of these can be expected to take place during the peak period. The Census for the Bishopton ward shows that residents included 171 full time students in the 16 to 24 years age group. In the

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Transport Assessment it is assumed that 75% of these or 128 students would have been attending further education establishments.

3.8 By applying these principles to the population of the proposed new development and taking account of a number of people over 24 years of age gives a total of 334 students travelling from Bishopton to their places of study. This equates to 11.2% of the population.

3.9 Application of this percentage figure to the generated residential people trip figures gives estimates of 298 AM and 264 PM student trips.

Primary Education Trips 3.10 Renfrewshire Council’s Education Department has identified a figure of 550 additional pupils expected when the proposed development is complete and fully occupied. The existing primary school in Bishopton has the capability of absorbing another 150 pupils and the new development will include a new primary school capable of accommodating the remaining 400 additional pupils.

3.11 Analysis of a database containing all the schools in the Renfrewshire Local Authority area has revealed the following ratios of full time equivalent (FTE) staff to pupils: Primary – 1 FTE staff member to every 20 pupils. Applying the findings of this analysis of staff numbers to the expected capacity of the school reveals the people trip generation characteristics for staff members.

3.12 Table 3.5 shows the people trip generation for the primary school staff associated with the proposed development. It has been assumed that an additional 8 support staff will be required at the school. This gives a total of 36 staff. It has been assumed that all trips in the AM period are arrivals and that all trips in the PM period are departures.

Table 3.5 Primary school staff trip generation

Pupils Staff Ratio (1 member of staff to number of Staff Numbers pupils)

Primary 550 20 28

3.13 It is assumed that all staff will arrive at the school during the AM peak period. The PM peak period for primary schools is highlighted within TRICS as 15:00-16:00 (with the majority of trips in the first half hour of this period) – in the inter-peak rather than the PM peak period. It has been assumed that some of the staff would depart at a later time. Therefore, it has been assumed that 18 (50%) departures from the school will be made during the PM peak period by staff with the remainder travelling off-peak.

3.14 Over the development stages the number of primary education people trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the ongoing residential development, to a maximum of 550 in 2026-2027. All primary school trips are assumed to be within the development area and are assumed not to be made by local public transport.

Secondary Education Trips 3.15 Secondary school pupils living in the residential areas of the proposed development will need to travel to schools outside the development site. It is anticipated that they, like secondary school pupils now living in Bishopton, will travel to schools in Erskine.

3.16 Table 3.6 is taken from the Transport Assessment and shows the number of pupils forecast in the 12 to 15 age band. It is modified to be based on 2,500 housing units for the reasons given in Chapter 1 (paragraph 1.7) and therefore shows a total of 368 pupils aged between 12 and 15

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years. This is factored by an additional 40% and rounded to take account of pupils aged 16 and 17 years giving an overall total of 510 pupil trips. It is assumed that all of these pupils will travel to and from Erskine by dedicated school buses provided by Renfrew Council under contract.

Table 3.6 Number of secondary school pupils

No. of Household Total Population of Population Percentage of Total Pupils Houses Occupancy Household Bishopton aged 12 to 15 Bishopton (based on Factor Population Population household population)

2,500 2.72 6,800 5,157 278 5.4% 368

3.17 Over the development stages the number of secondary education people trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the ongoing residential development to reach the maximum value in 2026- 2027.

Internal Trips Retail 3.18 Table 3.7 indicates the people trip generation associated with retail development in the site using trip rates derived from the TRICS database. All trips associated with the local facilities are assumed to be internal to the site. The number of trips has been reduced to account for pass-by and linked trips. The peak period trips are consistent with the Transport Assessment whilst the off- peak trips use rates derived from TRICS and used in the previous report on public transport.

Table 3.7 Food store people trip generation

AM peak period PM peak period Off-peak

In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total

Trip rate per 100m2 5.92 3.74 9.66 11.70 11.52 23.22 13.32 11.22 24.54 People trips 148 94 242 293 288 581 333 281 614 30% pass-by 44 29 73 88 86 175 100 85 185 Internal people trips 104 65 169 205 202 406 233 196 429

3.19 Over the development phases the number of food store trips is assumed to grow in line with the rate of development in the same way as residential development trips.

Residential leisure trips 3.20 Trip purpose data presented within the Scottish Household Statistics report (TRN/2005/2) indicates that approximately 5-7% of trips made during the peak hour are for entertainment or leisure purposes. Therefore, we have assumed that 5% of the total residential trip generation will be internal trips to the local residential community (i.e. trips from one house to another) and leisure facilities such as the park. Internal trips associated with the leisure and community facilities are as shown in Table 3.8. The figures presented differ from those in the Transport Assessment in that they are based on 2,500 housing units and not 2,602 as in the Transport Assessment for the reason explained in Chapter 1.

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Table 3.8 Residential trip composition

AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Off peak (inter-peak + evening)

In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total

Total Residential Generation (2026- 825 4100 4925 3100 2225 5325 6875 8200 15075 2027) Leisure Trips (5%) 41 205 246 155 111 266 344 410 754

3.21 Over the development phases the number of internal residential leisure trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the overall development.

Internal employment trips 3.22 The Transport Assessment provides an analysis of Census 2001 data to determine the number of employees living and working in the same ward. The analysis covered the Bishopton and Erskine S.E./Inchinnan wards and indicated that 16.7% of residents lived and worked in the same ward. For the purposes of the Transport Assessment it was therefore assumed that 15% of people of working age living in Bishopton would also work in Bishopton.

3.23 Table 3.9 shows the results of applying this relationship to the employment expected on completion of the Bishopton development. The peak figures are taken from the Transport assessment whilst the off-peak figures are a reduction on the numbers from the previous Public Transport Study.

Table 3.9 Employment trip composition at 2026-2027

AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Off Peak

IN OUT Total IN OUT Total IN OUT Total

Total Employment 1973 138 2111 166 1504 1670 4471 2415 6886 Generation Internal Trips 296 21 317 25 226 250 671 362 1033 (15%) External Trips 1677 117 1795 141 1279 1419 3801 2053 5853 (85%)

Trip totals 3.24 The internal trips can be deducted from the total number of trips generated by the proposed development to give a total for net additional external trips. This process is illustrated in Table 3.10.

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Table 3.10 External one-way trips - net totals on completion of development

AM peak period PM peak period Off-peak

In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total

Residential 825 4100 4925 3100 2225 5325 6875 8200 15075 Deduct leisure trips -41 -205 -246 -155 -111 -266 -344 -410 -754 Deduct primary school pupils --- -550 -550 ------550 --- -550 Deduct students --- -298 -298 -264 --- -264 -64 -64 -128 Deduct local retail trips -104 -65 -169 -205 -202 -406 -233 -196 -429 Deduct internal residential to work -21 -296 -317 -226 -25 -250 -362 -671 -1033 trips Deduct secondary school pupils (i) --- -510 -510 -510 --- -510 ------Residential total (net) 659 2176 2835 1741 1887 3628 5322 6859 12181 Employment 1973 138 2111 166 1504 1670 4471 2415 6886 Deduct internal trips to work from residential -296 -21 -317 -25 -226 -250 -671 -362 -1033 Add primary school staff +36 --- +36 --- +18 +18 --- +18 +18 Employment total (net) 1713 117 1831 141 1297 1437 3801 2071 5871 Combined total (net) 2373 2293 4666 1882 3184 5066 9122 8930 18052 (i) Assumed all to be travelling on dedicated contracted school buses.

Mode split and trip distribution 3.25 The people trip methodology is consistent with the guidelines provided by the Scottish Executive in the document, “Transport Assessment and Implementation: A Guide”, which refer to the use of people trip assessment methods and the use of Census data to determine existing travel characteristics and a potential base for assessing the characteristics of new development.

3.26 A summary of the method adopted is provided below and a more detailed description is given in the October 2008 Transport Assessment.

3.27 People trip generation was calculated using information from the TRICS database for residential related trips.

3.28 Residential development people trip distribution can be expected to follow existing patterns of Bishopton residents and wider patterns in Renfrewshire. The existing trip distribution was obtained through analysis of 2001 Census travel to work data. The patterns identified indicate high proportions of residents working within 5km of Bishopton. It is considered appropriate to continue with this pattern because, firstly, there will be a significant number of new jobs in Bishopton encouraging synergy between land uses and, secondly, the trip generation relates to all trips and not just trips to work. Hence, a high degree of non work related trips will occur - for example, taking children to school.

3.29 The distribution of trips within distance travelled bands was undertaken using gravity model principles. For residential development, this process is based on the number of jobs within ward areas (these are taken from Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 2001 (ABI) Statistics).

3.30 The 2001 Census identified the distance which people from Bishopton currently travel to work and the Scottish Household Survey indicated the Council area of workplace. These are indicated in Tables 3.11 and 3.12.

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Table 3.11 Distance travelled to work by Bishopton residents

Distance Travelled 0-5km 5km-10km 10km-20km 20km+

Percentage 20% 32% 41% 7%

Table 3.12 Council area of residence and workplace (1999-2002)

Area of Residence Area of Workplace

Glasgow Argyle/Dunbarton Renfrewshire Others Total / Inverclyde

Renfrewshire / Inverclyde 28% 3% 62% 7% 100%

3.31 The percentages shown in Tables 3.11 and 3.12 have been combined and applied to the numbers of trips in Table 3.10 to determine the distribution of travel to work from the proposed development in Bishopton at completion in 2026-2027 shown in Table 3.13.

Table 3.13 Proposed residential development - external trip distribution

Distance Percentage Employment location AM peak trips PM peak trips Off-peak trips band by band (%) In Out In Out In Out

0-5km 20 Bishopton (area around 48 159 127 138 390 502 main settlement) Erskine West 77 253 202 219 56 73 Erskine Central 7 23 18 20 618 797 5-10km 32 Glasgow Airport 97 319 256 277 781 1007 St. James 25 82 66 72 202 260 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 24 81 65 70 198 255 Linwood (East & West) 15 49 39 42 119 154 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / 30 100 80 86 244 314 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 20 65 52 57 160 206 10-20km 41 Paisley 40 132 106 114 323 416 Johnstone 8 28 22 24 68 87 Glasgow (remainder) 185 609 487 528 1490 1920 Port Glasgow & part 15 49 39 43 120 154 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 2 7 5 6 17 21 Renfrew / Braehead 20 67 54 58 165 212 20+km 7 Inverclyde (remainder) 46 152 122 132 373 480 Total 100 --- 659 2176 1741 1887 5322 6859

3.32 Table 3.14 shows the relationship between mode share and distance travelled to work for residents of Bishopton derived from the Census 2001. This data has been applied to the people trips generated by residential development at Bishopton to provide a trip distribution by mode for the AM peak, PM peak and off-peak. The results are shown in Tables 3.15, 3.16 and 3.17.

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Table 3.14 Mode share by distance travelled to work by Bishopton residents

Percentage mode share (%)

0-5km 5-10km 10-20km 20+km

Walk 14 2 0 0 Cycle 1 1 0 0 Bus 3 2 1 1 Train 3 12 26 10 Car 66 75 65 86 Other 13 8 8 3 All modes 100 100 100 100

Table 3.15 Residential AM peak external trip distribution by public transport mode

Employment location People trips Bus Train

In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main 48 159 1 5 1 5 settlement) Erskine West 77 253 2 8 2 8 Erskine Central 7 23 0 1 0 1 Glasgow Airport 97 319 2 6 12 38 St. James 25 82 0 2 3 10 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 24 81 0 2 3 10 Linwood (East & West) 15 49 0 1 2 6 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / 30 100 1 2 4 12 Craigend / Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 20 65 0 1 2 8 Paisley 40 132 0 1 10 34 Johnstone 8 28 0 0 2 7 Glasgow 185 609 2 6 48 158 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde 15 49 0 0 4 13 Kilmalcolm 2 7 0 0 1 2 Renfrew / Braehead 20 67 0 1 5 18 Inverclyde (remainder) 46 152 0 2 5 15 Total 659 2176 11 37 104 344

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Table 3.16 Residential PM peak external trip distribution by public transport mode

Employment location People trips Bus Train

In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) 127 138 4 4 4 4 Erskine West 202 219 6 7 6 7 Erskine Central 18 20 1 1 1 1 Glasgow Airport 256 277 5 6 31 33 St. James 66 72 1 1 8 9 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 65 70 1 1 8 8 Linwood (East & West) 39 42 1 1 5 5 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / Langbank 80 86 2 2 10 10 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 52 57 1 1 6 7 Paisley 106 114 1 1 27 30 Johnstone 22 24 0 0 6 6 Glasgow 487 528 5 5 127 137 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde 39 43 0 0 10 11 Kilmalcolm 5 6 0 0 1 2 Renfrew / Braehead 54 58 1 1 14 15 Inverclyde (remainder) 122 132 1 1 12 13 Total 1741 1887 30 32 275 298

Table 3.17 Residential off-peak external trip distribution by public transport mode

Employment location People trips Bus Train

In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main 390 502 12 15 12 15 settlement) Erskine West 618 797 19 24 19 24 Erskine Central 56 73 2 2 2 2 Glasgow Airport 781 1007 16 20 94 121 St. James 202 260 4 5 24 31 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 198 255 4 5 24 31 Linwood (East & West) 119 154 2 3 14 18 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / 244 314 Craigend / Langbank 5 6 29 38 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 160 206 3 4 19 25 Paisley 323 416 3 4 84 108 Johnstone 68 87 1 1 18 23 Glasgow 1490 1920 15 19 387 499 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde 120 154 1 2 31 40 Kilmalcolm 17 21 0 0 4 6 Renfrew / Braehead 165 212 2 2 43 55 Inverclyde (remainder) 373 480 4 5 37 48 Total 5322 6859 92 118 841 1084

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Methodology for Employment Development 3.33 People trip generation for the proposed employment development was calculated using information from the TRICS database for employment related trips. The method is summarised in the following paragraphs.

3.34 The travel to work pattern for the propose employment development at Bishopton generally follows that at a similar location, IBM Greenock, where the travel to work patterns to that ward reflect the dominant influence of the IBM plant and its associated rail station. This data has been considered in parallel with travel to work information for the Bishopton and Inchinnan areas and adjusted to provide an appropriate pattern for new development at Bishopton. The patterns indicated by the Census indicate that 36% of people who work in Renfrewshire travel no more than 5km to work. It is considered appropriate to continue with this pattern because the new employment development in Bishopton will be accessible to a significant number of new homes.

3.35 The distribution of trips within distance travel bands has been undertaken using gravity model principles. The process is based on the number of people within ward areas taken from the Census.

3.36 Employment mode share for Bishopton is based on the employment mode share for the Greenock ward that contains the IBM plant with adjustments for the local circumstances in Bishopton and Inchinnan. As there are rail stations on the Inverclyde Line in both Greenock and Bishopton, account is taken of the impact of travel to work by train.

3.37 The 2001 Census identified the distance which people working in Bishopton and Inchinnan travelled to work and the Scottish Household Survey indicated the Council area of workplace. This data is summarised in Tables 3.18 and 3.19.

Table 3.18 Distance travelled to work in Bishopton / Inchinnan

Distance Travelled 0-5km 5km-10km 10km-20km 20km+

Percentage 27% 21% 32% 20%

Table 3.19 Council area of residence and workplace (1999-2002)

Area of Residence Area of Workplace

Glasgow Argyle/Dunbarton Renfrewshire Others Total / Inverclyde

Renfrewshire / Inverclyde 13% 4% 63% 20% 100%

3.38 Table 3.20 shows the results of combining the information on distance travelled to work and areas of workplace and residence with the employment trip generation data for the proposed employment development in Bishopton.

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Table 3.20 Proposed employment development - external trip distribution

Distance Percentage Employment location AM peak trips PM peak trips Off-peak trips band by band (%) In Out In Out In Out

0-5km 20 Bishopton (area around main 125 9 10 95 278 152 settlement) Erskine West 199 14 16 151 442 241 Erskine Central 18 1 1 14 40 22 5-10km 32 Glasgow Airport 252 17 21 190 558 304 St. James 65 4 5 49 144 78 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 64 4 5 48 141 77 Linwood (East & West) 38 3 3 29 85 46 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / 78 5 6 59 174 95 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 51 4 4 39 114 62 10-20km 41 Paisley 104 7 9 79 231 126 Johnstone 22 1 2 17 48 26 Glasgow 480 33 39 363 1064 580 Port Glasgow & part 39 3 3 29 86 47 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 5 0 0 4 12 6 Renfrew / Braehead 53 4 4 40 118 64 20+km 7 Inverclyde (remainder) 120 8 10 91 266 145 Total 100 --- 1713 117 141 1297 3801 2071

3.39 Table 3.21 shows the mode share by distance travelled to work for Bishopton taken from the Census 2001. This has been applied to the trip generation data for the proposed employment development to determine trips by mode to Bishopton from each identified home location in the region. The output of this analysis for the AM peak, PM peak and off peak periods are shown in Tables 3.22, 3.23 and 3.24

Table 3.21 Mode share by distance travelled to work in Bishopton

Percentage mode share (%)

Total 0-5km 5-10km 10-20km 20+km

All modes 100 36 22 26 16 Train 4 0 1 10 10 Bus 19 21 28 13 13 Car / taxi 52 37 50 65 65 Car passenger 16 19 20 12 12 Motorcycle / bicycle 0 0 0 0 0 Foot 9 23 1 0 0

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Table 3.22 Employment AM peak external trip distribution by mode

Employment location People trips Bus Train

In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) 125 9 26 2 0 0 Erskine West 199 14 42 3 0 0 Erskine Central 18 1 4 0 0 0 Glasgow Central 252 17 70 5 3 0 St. James 65 4 18 1 1 0 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 64 4 18 1 1 0 Linwood (East & West) 38 3 11 1 0 0 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / Langbank 78 5 22 2 1 0 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 51 4 14 1 1 0 Paisley 104 7 14 1 10 1 Johnstone 22 1 3 0 2 0 Glasgow 480 33 62 4 48 3 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde 39 3 5 0 4 0 Kilmalcolm 5 0 1 0 1 0 Renfrew / Braehead 53 4 7 0 5 0 Inverclyde (remainder) 120 8 16 1 12 1 Total 1713 117 332 23 88 6

Table 3.23 Employment PM peak external trip distribution by mode

Employment location People trips Bus Train

In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) 10 95 2 20 0 0 Erskine West 16 151 3 32 0 0 Erskine Central 1 14 0 3 0 0 Glasgow Central 21 190 6 53 0 2 St. James 5 49 1 14 0 0 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 5 48 1 13 0 0 Linwood (East & West) 3 29 1 8 0 0 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / Langbank 6 59 2 17 0 1 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 4 39 1 11 0 0 Paisley 9 79 1 10 1 8 Johnstone 2 17 0 2 0 2 Glasgow 39 363 5 47 4 36 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde 3 29 0 4 0 3 Kilmalcolm 0 4 0 1 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead 4 40 1 5 0 4 Inverclyde (remainder) 10 91 1 12 1 9 Total 141 1297 27 252 7 66

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Table 3.24 Employment off-peak external trip distribution by mode

Employment location People trips Bus Train

In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) 278 152 58 32 0 0 Erskine West 442 241 93 51 0 0 Erskine Central 40 22 8 5 0 0 Glasgow Central 558 304 156 85 6 3 St. James 144 78 40 22 1 1 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 141 77 40 22 1 1 Linwood (East & West) 85 46 24 13 1 0 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / Langbank 174 95 49 27 2 1 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 114 62 32 17 1 1 Paisley 231 126 30 16 23 13 Johnstone 48 26 6 3 5 3 Glasgow 1064 580 138 75 106 58 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde 86 47 11 6 9 5 Kilmalcolm 12 6 2 1 1 1 Renfrew / Braehead 118 64 15 8 12 6 Inverclyde (remainder) 266 145 35 19 27 14 Total 3801 2071 737 402 195 106

3.40 The next steps in the process are as follows:

• To amalgamate the residential and employment trip forecasts.

• To add back in the 298 student trips each way assigned on the basis of a 50/50 split between Glasgow and Paisley. It has been assumed that all of these trips will be made by rail as the quickest and most convenient public transport option.

• To adjust the trip distribution and mode share to take account of trip origins/destinations that do not have a direct rail link or rely on an unnecessarily long rail trip (e.g. rail trips between Bishopton and Dumbartonshire involves interchange in Glasgow city centre) by reallocating them to bus. Where bus is substituted for rail, a downward adjustment is made to take account of the differences in mode share shown in Tables 3.14 and 3.21. 3.41 The results of this process are shown in Tables 3.25, 3.26 and 3.27.

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 26 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Table 3.25 AM peak external public transport trip distribution

Employment location Direct rail link People trips by bus People trips by train (Yes/No) In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) N 28 10 0 0 Erskine West N 45 17 0 0 Erskine Central N 8 2 0 0 Glasgow Central N 73 17 0 0 St. James N 20 5 0 0 Erskine SE & Inchinnan N 20 5 0 0 Linwood (East & West) N 11 3 0 0 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / N 24 5 0 0 Craigend / Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle N 15 3 0 0 Paisley Y 16 2 24 184 Johnstone Y 3 0 4 7 Glasgow Y 69 10 115 327 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde Y 5 0 8 12 Kilmalcolm N 1 0 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead N 8 3 0 0 Inverclyde (remainder) Y 17 3 17 16 Total 363 85 168 546

Table 3.26 PM peak external public transport trip distribution

Employment location People trips by bus People trips by train

In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) N 8 28 0 0 Erskine West N 15 43 0 0 Erskine Central N 2 5 0 0 Glasgow Central N 14 63 0 0 St. James N 3 16 0 0 Erskine SE & Inchinnan N 3 15 0 0 Linwood (East & West) N 3 10 0 0 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / N 5 22 0 0 Craigend / Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle N 3 13 0 0 Paisley Y 3 12 160 40 Johnstone Y 0 2 6 14 Glasgow Y 13 52 276 198 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde Y 1 4 10 14 Kilmalcolm N 0 1 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead N 3 11 0 0 Inverclyde (remainder) Y 3 13 13 22 Total 79 310 465 288

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name Page SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton 27

Table 3.27 Off-peak external public transport trip distribution

Employment location People trips by bus People trips by train

In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around main settlement) N 82 63 0 0 Erskine West N 128 99 0 0 Erskine Central N 14 11 0 0 Glasgow Central N 189 129 0 0 St. James N 49 35 0 0 Erskine SE & Inchinnan N 49 35 0 0 Linwood (East & West) N 31 20 0 0 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / N 61 42 0 0 Craigend / Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle N 39 25 0 0 Paisley Y 38 23 145 155 Johnstone Y 7 5 24 28 Glasgow Y 154 96 595 695 Port Glasgow & part Inverclyde Y 12 8 40 47 Kilmalcolm N 3 3 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead N 35 26 0 0 Inverclyde (remainder) Y 38 23 66 65 Total 929 643 870 990

3.42 Table 3.28 provides a summary of the internal trips generated by the proposed development in Bishopton derived from tables 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9. Table 3.29 shows the results of application of the mode share information in Tables 3.14 and 3.21 to the internal trips generated at 2022-2023. The employment element is assumed to have a bus mode share of 21% in accordance with table 3.21 whilst the residential element (including food store trips) is assume to have a bus mode share of 6% (made up of 3% bus plus 3% train from Table 3.14).

Table 3.28 Internal trips generated at 2026/27

AM peak PM peak Off-peak

In Out In Out In Out

Employment 296 21 25 226 671 362 Residential (leisure) 41 205 155 111 344 410 Food store trips 104 65 205 202 233 196 Total 441 291 385 539 1248 968

Table 3.29 Internal trips by bus

AM peak PM peak Off-peak

In Out In Out In Out

Employment 62 4 5 47 141 76 Residential (leisure) 2 12 9 7 21 25 Food store trips 6 4 12 12 14 12 Total 70 20 26 66 199 113

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 28 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

3.43 In 2007 Network Rail indicated that there should be no capacity constraint to limit the ability of rail passenger services on the Inverclyde Line to cater for the additional demand arising from the proposed development at Bishopton Park (see paragraph 2.26). Hence, attention is concentrated on the local bus network in the remainder of this chapter. In order to establish the demand for bus travel and to consider how that demand is to be met, it is necessary to provide a breakdown of the data to show a prediction of the combined total number of external and internal trips made by bus at the completion of each of the six phases of the development.

3.44 It is assumed that employment-based trips will increase in line with the build up in floor space and that all other trips will increase in line with the build up in the number of residential units at each stage of the development as set out in Table 1.1. Tables 3.30, 3.31 and 3.32 provide forecasts of the number of bus journeys in each phase of the proposed development.

Table 3.30 Bus trips - AM peak period

Location Phase

1 2 3 4 5

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around 40 9 48 13 69 21 96 29 98 30 main settlement) Erskine West 19 3 22 6 32 11 43 15 45 17 Erskine Central 2 0 2 1 3 1 4 1 8 2 Glasgow Airport 31 3 36 6 53 10 70 14 73 17 St. James 8 1 9 2 14 3 19 4 20 5 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 8 1 9 1 13 3 19 4 20 5 Linwood (East & West) 5 0 6 1 8 2 10 2 11 3 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield /Craigend / 10 1 11 2 17 3 23 4 24 5 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 6 1 7 1 11 2 14 3 15 3 Paisley 6 0 7 1 10 1 14 2 16 2 Johnstone 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 Glasgow 27 2 32 4 46 7 66 9 69 10 Port Glasgow & part 2 0 2 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 Renfrew / Braehead 4 1 5 2 7 3 8 3 8 3 Inverclyde (remainder) 7 1 8 1 11 2 16 2 17 3 Total ------433 105

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Table 3.31 Bus trips - PM peak period

Location Phase

1 2 3 4 5

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around 12 36 16 44 26 66 33 91 34 94 main settlement) Erskine West 5 17 7 21 11 31 14 42 15 43 Erskine Central 0 2 1 2 1 3 1 4 2 5 Glasgow Airport 5 26 7 31 10 45 13 61 14 63 St. James 1 7 2 8 3 12 3 15 3 16 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 1 7 2 8 3 11 3 14 3 15 Linwood (East & West) 1 4 1 5 2 7 2 10 3 10 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / 2 8 2 10 3 14 4 20 5 22 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 1 5 1 6 2 9 3 13 3 13 Paisley 1 4 1 5 1 8 2 11 3 12 Johnstone 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 Glasgow 4 22 5 26 7 38 9 50 13 52 Port Glasgow & part 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 4 1 4 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 Renfrew / Braehead 2 4 2 5 3 8 3 11 3 11 Inverclyde (remainder) 1 5 1 6 2 9 2 13 3 13 Total ------105 376

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 30 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Table 3.32 Bus trips – Off-peak period

Location Phase

1 2 3 4 5

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around 98 64 120 82 178 122 249 166 281 176 main settlement) Erskine West 47 35 59 46 89 69 124 92 128 99 Erskine Central 4 3 5 4 8 6 11 8 14 11 Glasgow Airport 73 47 88 58 131 86 185 119 189 129 St. James 19 12 23 15 34 22 48 31 49 35 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 19 12 22 15 33 22 47 30 49 35 Linwood (East & West) 11 7 13 9 20 13 28 18 31 20 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / 23 15 27 18 41 27 58 37 61 42 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 15 10 18 12 27 18 38 24 39 25 Paisley 13 8 15 9 23 13 32 19 38 23 Johnstone 3 2 3 2 5 3 7 4 7 5 Glasgow 63 38 74 46 110 68 151 94 154 96 Port Glasgow & part 5 3 6 3 8 4 12 6 12 8 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 3 Renfrew / Braehead 11 9 14 13 22 19 30 25 35 26 Inverclyde (remainder) 15 9 18 11 27 16 37 22 38 23 Total ------1128 756

Full Development Trip Patterns 3.45 The forecast travel demand shown in tables in this Chapter thus far are based on assumptions derived from existing mode shares. The Transport Assessment identifies a number of transport interventions intended to make the more sustainable travel modes relatively more attractive and to make use of the car relatively less attractive.

3.46 The creation of the new bus services and service enhancements will provide a benefit for the existing Bishopton residents as well as for residents of the proposed development. It can therefore be expected that the improvements in public transport provision will lead to a modal shift in the travel behaviour of existing Bishopton residents.

3.47 Consequently, a conservative assumption is made that the total number of trips made by bus could increase by 5% of total as a result of mode transfer from car. The revised numbers and distribution of bus trips resulting are provided in Tables 3.33, 3.34 and 3.35.

3.48 The numbers and distribution of trips shown in Tables 3.33, 3.34 and 3.35 are used in the next chapter of this report to provide a basis for developing proposals for the enhancement of the local bus network to serve the proposed development at Bishopton Park.

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Table 3.33 Adjusted bus trips - AM peak period

Location Phase

1 2 3 4 5

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around 42 9 50 14 72 22 104 30 103 31 main settlement) Erskine West 20 3 23 6 34 12 48 5 47 18 Erskine Central 2 0 2 1 3 1 4 1 8 2 Glasgow Airport 33 3 38 6 56 11 80 15 77 18 St. James 8 1 9 2 15 3 21 4 21 5 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 8 1 9 1 14 3 20 4 21 5 Linwood (East & West) 5 0 6 1 8 2 13 2 12 3 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir / Brookfield / Craigend / 11 1 12 2 18 3 25 4 25 5 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 6 1 7 1 12 2 16 3 16 3 Paisley 6 0 7 1 11 1 15 2 17 2 Johnstone 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 Glasgow 28 2 34 4 48 7 69 9 72 11 Port Glasgow & part 2 0 2 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 Renfrew / Braehead 4 1 5 2 7 4 11 5 8 3 Inverclyde (remainder) 7 1 8 1 12 2 17 2 18 3 Total ------454 109

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 32 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Table 3.34 Adjusted bus trips - PM peak period

Location Phase

1 2 3 4 5

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around 36 99 13 38 17 46 27 69 35 96 main settlement) Erskine West 5 18 7 22 12 33 15 45 16 45 Erskine Central 0 2 1 2 1 3 1 4 2 5 Glasgow Airport 5 27 7 33 11 47 15 67 15 66 St. James 1 7 2 8 3 13 4 17 3 17 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 1 7 2 8 3 12 3 17 3 16 Linwood (East & West) 1 4 1 5 2 7 2 11 3 11 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir 5 23 / Brookfield / Craigend / 2 8 2 11 3 15 4 21 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 1 5 1 6 2 9 3 14 3 14 Paisley 1 4 1 5 1 8 2 12 3 13 Johnstone 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 Glasgow 4 23 5 27 7 40 9 56 14 55 Port Glasgow & part 1 4 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 4 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 Renfrew / Braehead 2 4 2 5 4 8 4 12 3 12 Inverclyde (remainder) 1 5 1 6 2 9 2 14 3 14 Total ------110 397

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name Page SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton 33

Table 3.35 Adjusted bus trips – Off-peak period

Location Phase

1 2 3 4 5

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

Bishopton (area around 295 185 103 67 126 86 187 128 261 174 main settlement) Erskine West 49 37 62 48 93 72 130 97 134 104 Erskine Central 4 3 5 4 8 6 12 8 15 12 Glasgow Airport 77 49 92 61 138 90 194 125 198 135 St. James 20 13 24 16 36 23 50 33 51 37 Erskine SE & Inchinnan 20 13 23 16 35 23 49 32 51 37 Linwood (East & West) 12 7 14 9 21 14 29 19 33 21 Houston ./ Bridge of Weir 64 44 / Brookfield / Craigend / 24 16 28 19 43 28 61 39 Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle 16 11 19 13 28 19 40 25 41 26 Paisley 14 8 16 9 24 14 34 20 40 24 Johnstone 3 2 3 2 5 3 7 4 7 5 Glasgow 66 40 78 48 116 71 164 99 162 101 Port Glasgow & part 13 8 5 3 6 3 8 4 13 6 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 3 Renfrew / Braehead 12 9 15 14 23 20 32 26 37 27 Inverclyde (remainder) 16 9 19 12 28 17 40 24 40 24 Total ------1184 793

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 34 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

4 Providing Access by Public Transport

Bus Services - Key Requirements 4.1 Bus is very much the minority form of public transport in Bishopton. At the time of undertaking the detailed assessment in this report, the only commercial bus service is hourly Service X22 between Greenock, Bishopton and Clydebank. Existing local Services 520/521 appear to be lightly used and are dependent upon financial support from SPT.

4.2 Two factors dictate the need to improve and extend the provision of bus services in Bishopton – the need to penetrate the development to ensure that all new development is within walking distance of a bus stop and the need for a step change in provision to cater for the additional demand generated by the proposed development.

4.3 Consideration of the potential additional demand for bus travel identified earlier in this chapter indicates a need to consider provision of the following links by the time that the development is completed:

• A local peak and inter-peak period service connecting housing, shops and facilities in the existing village of Bishopton and in the proposed development site.

• A peak and inter-peak service connecting the existing village and the proposed development with the local centre and facilities at Erskine.

• Links with Renfrew, Braehead Shopping Centre and Glasgow city centre at peak and off-peak times – either direct or by means of interchange with connecting bus services at Erskine.

• Peak period links for travel to work to Bishopton from communities to the south and south east.

• Peak period links for travel to work for residents of Bishopton working in locations such as Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport. 4.4 Service X22 and rail services on the Inverclyde Line provide links westwards to Port Glasgow, Greenock and Gourock whilst the Inverclyde Line also provides connections eastwards to Paisley. There is little justification for investing in improving bus services on this east-west corridor.

4.5 The approach adopted in developing proposals to provide new or improved bus services to cater for demand generated by the new development is, firstly, to consider the bus network needed when the development is completed and, secondly, to consider how that network can be built up to match demand during the five phases of development.

4.6 Given the length of the development programme, there is a need to ensure that proposed new or improved services are as financially sustainable as possible on completion of the development and during individual phases of development. The objective is therefore to build up the network of bus services incrementally to provide the links that are needed at each stage of development with the minimum necessary financial support.

4.7 During all five phases of the proposed development, there is a need to ensure that there is sufficient capacity in the bus network to meet demand in both peaks and in the off-peak periods.

4.8 The bus interchange at the rail station will remain the hub of the local bus network in Bishopton and will provide opportunities for interchange between bus and rail and between the local services in Bishopton and services to and from places further afield.

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name Page SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton 35

Bus Network Proposals 4.9 The quantification of potential demand and the distribution of those trips at different times of the day presented in Tables 3.33, 3.34 and 3.35 provide a basis for identifying the links that need to be provided by an enhanced local bus network. The following conclusions can be drawn from analysis of the data presented in those tables:

• There is substantial additional demand for travel in the Bishopton area and between Bishopton and Erskine amounting to around 1,000 single trips on a weekday (i.e. the sum of Bishopton, Erskine Central and Erskine West trips in Tables 3.33-3.35)

• There is also strong demand for a link to the employment opportunities at and around Glasgow Airport. Tables 3.33-3.35 suggest nearly 500 single trips on a weekday. This is supplemented by demand of around another 120 single trips to and from Inchinnan and Erskine East.

• Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow city centre show a combined demand of around 500 single trips (250 return trips) on a weekday – with Glasgow accounting for about 80% of these trips.

• The communities to the south of Bishopton (e.g. Linwood, Houston, Bridge of Weir) combine to give a potential demand of around 200 single trips to or from Bishopton. 4.10 An additional consideration is that the proposed development extends beyond reasonable walking distance of existing bus routes and stops in Bishopton. There is therefore a need to extend the bus network on roads in the proposed development in stages as that development proceeds in order to deliver acceptable walking distances and provide attractive public transport travel options.

4.11 The main change since the 2009 version of this Report is that it is no longer possible to make use of the vehicle that operates existing Services 520/521 to extend Service 520 into the development area. Services 520/521 will now remain unchanged on their present route and at their present frequency.

4.12 The proposals for an extended bus network to serve the existing village of Bishopton and the Royal Ordnance development site when completed are summarised below:

• Introduce a new direct hourly Service A between Erskine and Bishopton using one additional bus: This service would continue from the bus turning circle at Bishopton Station into the development via the southern access road and would terminate in a one-way loop using roads in the new development.

• Divert Service X22 via a longer route through Bishopton: Journeys to from Clydebank to Greenock would be routed via the bus turning circle at the station, the southern access road and the northern access road to regain the present route to the north west of Bishopton. Journeys in the opposite direction would follow the reverse of this route.

• Provide a new bus Service B linking Bishopton and Glasgow Airport bus terminal via West Craigend and Inchinnan: It is acknowledged that it is possible to use rail and the rail/bus interchange at Paisley to access Glasgow Airport, but a large part of the development will be beyond the maximum acceptable walking distance of 400 metres from Bishopton Station. The intention is to provide a direct service linking the housing and employment on the outer parts of the development site with places between Bishopton and the Airport.

• Provide more peak period journeys to/from Renfrew, the Southern General Hospital and Glasgow by extending existing journeys on Arriva Service 23 to cover the section of route between Bishopton and Bargarran (Erskine).

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 36 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

• Provide a new, but relatively low frequency bus link between Bishopton and communities in the Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir area by means of an extension of some journeys on the proposed service linking Bishopton with Glasgow Airport. 4.13 The proposals are shown on a plan in Appendix E and a description is provided in Appendix F.

4.14 These services will be introduced in stages as the development proceeds and demand for travel builds up. It will be essential to the success of the travel plan to ensure that bus service options are available to residents of and employees working in Bishopton at an early stage in each phase of development to ensure that travel behaviour is formed on the basis of a good level of accessibility by public transport.

4.15 The approach adopted has been to establish a bus network to meet demand on completion of the whole development and then to build towards that final network through incremental additions to the existing network in each phase of the development.

Demand, Revenue and Operating Costs 4.16 Tables 3.33, 3.34 and 3.35 show potential demand for bus travel at peak periods and in the off- peak generated by the development at the conclusion of each of the five phases of development. Revenue is predicted on the basis of a fare per passenger kilometre assumed to be £0.20. The distances used in the calculation of average fares are shown separately for each service later in this chapter.

4.17 Estimates of weekly and annual revenue are determined by the application of the following factors:

• Weekly: Daily revenue factored by 5.75.

• Annual: Daily revenue factored by 52. 4.18 The main parameters used in estimating bus operating costs are summarised in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Bus operating cost assumptions

Cost item Rate per unit

Bus driver cost per bus hour (including overheads) £12.50/bus hour Bus operating cost per kilometre (fuel, tyres, distance-related maintenance) £0.60-£0.80/mile Annual costs £20,000/year

4.19 All figures quoted in this report are at current prices and no allowance is made for future cost inflation or future fares increases.

Services linking Bishopton and Erskine 4.20 The proposed new direct bus service between Erskine and Bishopton will use one additional vehicle to operate on a direct route between the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine and the bus turning circle at Bishopton Station. The service will continue into the new development via the southern access road and terminate in a one-way loop using roads in the proposed development. Last journeys will be sufficiently late to cater for commuters returning from Glasgow by train.

4.21 The scale of development and the volume of additional passenger trips generated (around 1,000 single trips on a weekday) on the completion of the whole development indicate that the existing service operated by one small single deck bus will not have sufficient capacity to meet demand.

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name Page SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton 37

4.22 In Phase 1, when the first houses are occupied in 2013, it is proposed to introduce the proposed direct Service A between Erskine and Bishopton. During Phase 2 it is proposed to extend the new service into the new development without any further addition to the number of buses operating the service.

4.23 Services 520/521 and A would meet demand for peak period travel within Bishopton and between Bishopton, Erskine, Linburn, Barrhill, parts of Inchinnan and the Bridgewater Shopping Centre. Services 521 and A would also cater for bus users interchanging in Erskine to continue their journeys to or from Inchinnan Business Park and Paisley. Connections would be available at Erskine with frequent Arriva Service 23 for travel onwards to Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow.

4.24 It is also proposed to divert Service X22 through the proposed development without an increase in vehicular resources (the service is operated using two buses) to complement Service A.

4.25 There will need to be an alteration to the routes followed by Services X22 and A through the development site in Phase 4 as new areas of housing and employment are completed. This will become the final route pattern in the development as it will provide sufficient penetration of the whole development site to cater for the remaining development in Phase 5.

4.26 An estimate of annual operating cost for the services to be provided in each phase of development is shown at Table 4.2.

Table 4.2 Enhanced bus services in Bishopton and Erskine - additional bus operating costs

Additional annual cost (£)

Phase 1 Phase 2-5

Time and distance-related Mon-Fri 67,500 86,100 bus operating cost Sat 13,500 17,200 Sun 10,300 13,400 Annual element of bus operating cost 20,000 20,000 Total 111,300 136,700

4.27 The next stage of the process is to develop an estimate of the potential additional annual revenue to enable a comparison to be made with annual costs to establish if financial support is needed and, if so, how much. Potential additional revenue is calculated using the average passenger fare of £0.20 per kilometre indicated in paragraph 4.14 and an assumption on average passenger trip length.

4.28 Consideration of the data in Tables 3.33-3.35 indicates that 64% of trips using this service would be within the expanded Bishopton community and the remaining 36% would be trips to and from Erskine. We have assumed average trip lengths of 1.1 km for Bishopton local trips and 4.5 km for trips to/from Erskine. Passenger numbers are taken from the Bishopton, Erskine Central and Erskine West entries in Tables 3.33-3.35. Factors of 5.5 and 50 have been used for the conversion of daily to weekly and weekly to annual passenger numbers respectively.

4.29 The prediction of potential revenue using these assumptions and an assessment of financial performance at completion of each phase of the development is provided in Table 4.3. The full costs are incurred in each year in each phase of development whilst revenue builds up in parallel with occupancy of completed housing and employment development.

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 38 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Table 4.3 Enhanced bus services in Bishopton and Erskine - financial performance

Development phase No. of passengers Additional Additional Support needed annual revenue annual cost (£) during phase (£) Weekday Year (£)

1 2012-2016 417 114,634 52,300 111,300 294,900 2 2017-2018 524 144.086 66,300 136,700 140,900 3 2019-2022 784 215,696 99,500 136,700 148,800 4 2023-2025 1074 295,391 135,500 136,700 29,000 5 2026-2027 1157 318,203 146,400 136,700 ---

4.30 The figures shown in Table 4.3 do not imply precise forecasts of profit or loss for the local bus service in the Bishopton/Erskine area as existing services 520/521 already receive financial support from SPT. That subsidy will be additional to the loss predicted during Phases 1 to 4 of the development and will need to be subtracted from the surplus predicted for the last two phases of the development.

Services to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport 4.31 At present, there is no direct bus service linking Bishopton with Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport. Inchinnan can be reached by a single interchange between bus services at the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine or by bus/rail interchange at Paisley. The bus option is slow and unattractive whilst a large part of the proposed development will be beyond the maximum acceptable walking distance from Bishopton Station. Hence the proposal to provide a direct bus link.

4.32 If the numbers of people wishing to travel between Bishopton, Inchinnan and South East Erskine and Glasgow Airport on completion of the whole Bishopton Park development are summed, the total is 642 one-way trips on a weekday. This is considered sufficient to warrant the provision of a new bus service.

4.33 It is proposed to operate a new bus service (Service B) from the proposed development along the A8/A726 to Inchinnan and the Glasgow Airport bus interchange. During Phase 2, it is proposed to provide an hourly service in each direction in daytime on weekdays and Saturdays. The level of service would be increased to half-hourly in daytime on Mondays to Saturdays early in Phase 3.

4.34 An estimate of annual operating cost for the service to be provided in each phase of development is shown at Table 4.4.

Table 4.4 Bus service to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport – additional bus operating costs

Additional annual cost (£)

Phase 2 Phases 3-5

Time and distance-related Mon-Fri 70,900 141,700 bus operating cost Sat 14,200 28.300 Sun 14,200 14,200 Annual element of bus operating cost 20,000 40,000 Total 119,200 224,200

4.35 Potential additional revenue is again calculated using the average passenger fare of £0.20 per kilometre indicated in paragraph 4.13 and an assumption on average passenger trip length.

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Consideration of the data in Tables 3.33-3.35 indicates that 79% of trips using this service would be to/from Glasgow Airport and 21% to/from Inchinnan. Average trip lengths have been assumed of 4.0 km for Inchinnan and 9.0 km for Glasgow Airport. Passenger numbers are taken from the South East Erskine and Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport entries in Tables 3.33-3.35. Factors of 5.5 and 50 have been used for the conversion of daily to weekly and annual passenger numbers respectively.

4.36 The prediction of potential revenue using these assumptions and an assessment of financial performance on completion of each phase of the development is provided in Table 4.5. The full costs are incurred in each year in each phase of development whilst revenue builds up in parallel with occupancy of completed housing and employment development.

Table 4.5 Bus service to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport – financial performance

Development phase No. of passengers Additional Additional Support needed annual revenue annual cost (£) during phase (£) Weekday Year (£)

1 2012-2016 ------2 2017-2018 297 81,716 130,600 119,200 --- 3 2019-2022 441 121,275 193,800 224,200 160,720 4 2023-2025 595 163,721 264,400 224,200 --- 5 2026-2027 643 176,715 281,400 224,200 ---

Services to Linwood and Bridge of Weir 4.37 There is no direct public transport link between Bishopton, Linwood, Craigend, Houston and Bridge of Weir. If the numbers of people wishing to travel between Bishopton and these communities shown in Tables 3.33-3.35 are added together, there is a total of 249 one-way trips on a weekday on completion of the entire development. Again, this is considered sufficient to warrant the provision of a new bus service.

4.38 The most effective way of providing this service would be to extend proposed Service B between Bishopton, Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport to Linwood, Craigend and Bridge of Weir. As a connection to an existing bus service between Braehead Shopping Centre and Bridge of Weir is available at Glasgow Airport, it is proposed to extend the Bishopton-Glasgow Airport service from the Airport to Bridge of Weir only hourly in daytime on weekdays early in Phase 3 of the Bishopton development.

4.39 An estimate of the additional annual operating cost for the service to be provided in Phases 3-5 of the development is shown at Table 4.6. The costs shown are in addition to the costs of providing the Bishopton to Glasgow Airport service described above.

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 40 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Table 4.6 Bus service to Linwood and Bridge of Weir – additional bus operating costs

Additional annual cost (£)

Phase 3-5

Time and distance-related bus Mon-Fri 75,100 operating cost Sat --- Sun --- Annual element of bus operating cost 20,000 Total 95,100

4.40 Potential additional revenue is calculated using the average passenger fare of £0.20 per kilometre indicated in paragraph 4.13 and an assumption on average passenger trip length. Consideration of the data in Tables 3.33-3.35 indicates that 36% of trips using this service would be to/from Linwood and 64% to/from Craigend, Houston and Bridge of Weir. Average trip lengths have been assumed of 10.0 km for Linwood and 12.0 km for Craigend, Houston and Bridge of Weir. Passenger numbers are taken from the Linwood and Houston / Bridge of weir / |Brookfield / Craigend / Langbank entries in Tables 3.33-3.35. Factors of 5.5 and 50 have been used for the conversion of daily to weekly and annual passenger numbers respectively.

4.41 The prediction of potential revenue using these assumptions and an assessment of financial performance on completion of each phase of the development is provided in Table 4.7. The full costs are incurred in each year in each phase of development whilst revenue builds up in parallel with occupancy of completed housing and employment development. The figures relate to the additional cost of and revenue from extending the proposed Bishopton to Glasgow airport service to Linwood and Bridge of Weir.

Table 4.7 Bus service to Linwood and Bridge of Weir – financial performance

Development phase No. of passengers Additional Additional Support needed annual revenue annual cost (£) during phase (£) Weekday Year (£)

1 2012-2016 ------2 2017-2018 ------3 2019-2022 165 45,334 102,800 95,100 --- 4 2023-2025 227 63,370 141,600 95,100 --- 5 2026-2027 249 68,434 155,200 95,100 ---

Services to Glasgow 4.42 Links that were formerly provided by direct Arriva services will need to be restored in order to connect Bishopton village and the new development with Erskine, Renfrew, Braehead, Southern General Hospital and Glasgow city centre. At present anyone wishing to travel between Bishopton and Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow city centre has to use Service 521 from Bishopton and interchange at Bridgewater Shopping Centre to complete their journey on Service 23 which offers a high frequency east of Erskine.

4.43 The data for potential demand for travel by bus between the development at Bishopton Park, Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow city centre contained in Tables 3.33-3.35 indicates a total of 505 one-way trips when the development is completed and fully occupied. This scale of demand indicates that it would be beneficial to provide a better direct bus service than is on offer now.

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name Page SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton 41

4.44 The proposal to improve links to Renfrew, Braehead and places on the way to Glasgow city centre is to provide a half-hourly direct bus service between Bishopton and Glasgow in daytime on Monday to Saturday early in Phase 2 of the development by means of extending two journeys an hour in each direction on Service 23 to cover the section of route between Erskine and Bishopton. This will require two extra buses to cater for the extra time and distance for running between Bishopton and Erskine. It is assumed that there will be sufficient capacity on the frequent service provided by Arriva on Service 23 between Erskine, Renfrew and Glasgow to cater for the additional demand generated by the Bishopton development. The estimated additional annual operating costs are shown in Table 4.8.

Table 4.8 Bus service to Renfrew and Glasgow city centre – additional bus operating costs

Additional annual cost (£)

Phase 2 Phases 3-5

Time and distance-related bus Mon-Fri 85,100 114,600 operating cost Sat 17,000 22,900 Sun 12,900 17,300 Annual element of bus operating cost 20,000 40,000 Total 135,100 194,800

4.45 Potential additional revenue is calculated using the average passenger fare of £0.20 per kilometre indicated in paragraph 4.13 and an assumption on average passenger trip length. Consideration of the data in Tables 3.33-3.35 indicates that 18% of trips using this service would be to/from Renfrew/Braehead and 82% to/from Glasgow. Average trip lengths have been assumed of 10.0 km for Renfrew/Braehead and 15.0 km for Glasgow. The Glasgow distance is artificially low to take account of the fact that day tickets would be used by passengers rather than a fare from the fare scale. Passenger numbers are taken from the appropriate entries in Tables 3.33-3.35. Factors of 5.5 and 50 have been used for the conversion of daily to weekly and annual passenger numbers respectively.

4.46 The prediction of potential revenue using these assumptions and an assessment of financial performance on completion of each phase of the development is provided in Table 4.9. The full costs are incurred in each year in each phase of development whilst revenue builds up in parallel with occupancy of completed housing and employment development.

Table 4.9 Bus service to Renfrew and Glasgow city centre – financial performance

Development phase No. of passengers Additional Additional Support needed annual revenue annual cost (£) during phase (£) Weekday Year (£)

1 2012-2016 ------2 2017-2018 239 65,835 185,700 135,100 --- 3 2019-2022 355 97,598 274,900 194,800 --- 4 2023-2025 482 132,536 374,500 194,800 --- 5 2026-2027 504 138,600 391,000 194,800 ---

Delivery of New Bus Services 4.47 Discussions with SPT indicate that Network Enhancement Grant is likely to be the most appropriate mechanism for securing delivery of the new and improved bus services need to complement development of the Bishopton site. SPT has used Section 75 funds provided by developers on a

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 42 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

number of occasions to provide the funding needed to provide financial support for new or improved bus services as demand and revenue builds towards break even and eventually to a profitable situation.

4.48 SPT has advised that Network Enhancement Grant is currently available for periods of up to four years implying that it will be possible to link the phased introduction of improved or new bus services needed to complement the phased nature of development with new rounds of Network Enhancement Grant. Discussion with SPT indicates that the approach will be suitable for all of the bus network enhancements proposed in this Report. In addition, as SPT is responsible for setting the eligibility rules for Network Enhancement Grant, they have advised that there is scope for flexibility in its application to suit the particular requirements of serving the Bishopton development.

4.49 It is anticipated that this Report will be supported by a Letter of Intent from SPT (Appendix G).

4.50 SPT has suggested that, as time passes and the bus network to the west of Glasgow develops and changes, different and more cost-effective opportunities may emerge to modify the existing bus network to serve the existing community and expanding development at Bishopton. It may in time become possible to adapt different bus services to those identified in this Report to deliver the same levels of accessibility at a lower cost. This should be acceptable provided that the objectives set out in paragraph 4.3 of this Report are met.

Rail Park and Ride 4.51 The development proposals for the Royal Ordnance site will result in an increasing demand for rail park and ride at Bishopton Station over time as house-building takes place provided that additional parking provision is made at the station. Demand will not reach a maximum until the planned completion of development in 2026/27. It has already been shown (in Chapter 2) that existing parking facilities at the station are well-used although not at capacity. There is also on-street parking in surrounding streets.

4.52 There is not sufficient space available on the east side of the railway to allow expansion of the existing car park. In 2006 a new surfaced car park was provided on an area of land on the west side of the railway that formerly served as a car park for Royal Ordnance. This provided the extra car parking capacity needed to remove some of the on-street parking by rail users on Station Road and adjoining streets. In a further expanded form it would also, in due course, cater for new demand generated by the proposed development.

4.53 A report on the projected demand and accommodation of additional park and ride parking has been prepared by JMP and reference should be made to this document for further information on the proposals.

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5 Summary and Conclusions 5.1 Bishopton is an intermediate station on the electrified Inverclyde Line linking Gourock and Wemyss Bay with Paisley and Glasgow Central. In daytime on weekdays and Saturdays Bishopton is served by three trains an hour in each direction between Glasgow Central and Gourock and a fourth between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay.

5.2 Bishopton Station has a large car park with 117 parking spaces including five designated for parking by disabled drivers. There is a second area of parking on the east side of the station forecourt that takes total public provision to 136 spaces on the north side of the railway, and a more recent additional 80 spaces have been create in a formal car-park on BAE land to the south of the railway. It is proposed to increase overall provision of parking to 300 spaces by completion of the whole Bishopton Park development with expansion taking place in stages to correspond with growing demand as the development proceeds.

5.3 There were issues of capacity on the Inverclyde Line – a high level of occupancy of trains and line capacity constraints between Paisley and Glasgow Central. This has been / is being addressed by the deployment of higher capacity trains, the provision of additional platforms at Glasgow Central Station and an additional track between Glasgow Central and Paisley.

5.4 At the Structure Plan EIP in May 2007, Network Rail commented that they did not envisage anything within the then envisaged improvements to the rail network and rolling-stock that would suggest that the Bishopton development could not be accommodated. For this reason, attention has been focused on development of the local bus network to meet the demand generated by the proposed development.

5.5 There are bus/rail interchange facilities at Bishopton in the form of a bus turning circle and bus stance with passenger shelter on the north side of the railway at the entrance to the main station car park. There is a limited network of local bus services. SPT provides financial support for two local bus services operated by Scottish Travel in daytime on Mondays to Saturdays using a single accessible vehicle. The two services both operate hourly – Service 520 is the Bishopton Local Service and Service 521 provides a link to the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine. In addition, commercial Scottish Travel Service X22 provides an hourly service between Greenock, Port Glasgow, Bishopton and Clydebank.

5.6 Information from a variety of sources including the Transport Assessment has been brought together to quantify the potential market for public transport in order to provide a basis for development of financially sustainable proposals for providing new or extended bus services.

5.7 In developing proposals for developing the bus network, three constraints have been applied:

• The introduction of additional east-west bus services would only duplicate existing Service X22 and the faster service available by rail.

• Demand for movement to some destinations is small scale and would not support a financially sustainable mainstream bus service.

• Locations such as Ayrshire and North and South Lanarkshire are a substantial distance away, demand is small scale and dispersed, and bus journey times and the number of interchanges needed make bus an inappropriate option. 5.8 The proposals for enhancing the local bus network are summarised in Table 5.1 and the extent of financial support needed for each service on completion of each phase of the development is

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name 44 SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

shown in Table 5.2. It should be noted that the figures given in table 5.2 do not exclude any on- going SPT subsidy for the existing level of service on Services 520/521.

Table 5.1 Bishopton Park - Bus Network Proposals

Development Phases Network Development Proposals

1 2012-2016 New Service A introduced in 2013 to coincide with first housing occupations to complement Service 521 providing a doubling of daytime frequency and additional evening and Sunday services between Bishopton and Erskine

2 2017-2018 Extension of new Service A and diverted Service X22 into the new development. New hourly Service B to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport in daytime on weekdays and Saturdays. Two journeys an hour on Service 23 extended from Erskine / Bargarran to Bishopton in daytime on weekdays and Saturdays.

3 2019-2022 Proposed Service B to Inchinnan and Glasgow Airport extended to Linwood and Bridge of Weir hourly in daytime on weekdays and Saturdays. Frequency between Bishopton and Glasgow Airport increased to half-hourly.

4 2023-2025 Adjustment of bus routes through the development to improve penetration and deliver acceptable walk distances.

5 2026-2027 No change.

Table 5.2 Bishopton Park Bus Network Proposals – Financial Support

Development Annual Financial support No of Years Total Financial support Phases needed (£) needed (£)

1 2012-2016 73,700 4 (from first occupations) 294,900 2 2017-2018 70,500 2 140,900 3 2019-2022 67,700 4 270,600 4 2023-2025 1,200 3 3,700 5 2026-2027 - 2 - Total - 710,100

5.9 The mechanism proposed for delivery of the new/improved bus services to serve the proposed development at Bishopton is Network Enhancement Grant managed and administered by SPT using the allocated Section 75 Agreement funding.

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Appendix A

Indicative Masterplan

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Appendix B

Bishopton Station survey

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Bishopton Station Survey Questionnaire

Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Bishopton Station Passenger Survey

How did you travel to the station? Car driver

Car passenger

Taxi

Motorcycle/moped

Bus

Cycle

Walk

Where did you start your journey? Postcode, street name, town or village name

Where is your final destination? Place name

What is the purpose of your journey? Work

Education

Shopping

Personal business

Recreation/leisure

Other

How often do you make this journey? Five days or more each week

Between two and four days each week

Once a week

Less than once a week

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Appendix C

Accessibility maps

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Appendix D

Distribution of travel to work destinations

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Appendix E

Bus Network Proposals - Plan

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Appendix F

Bus Network Proposals - Description

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Service Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

A - Erskine-Bishopton Stn only Bus hours One weekday 17 0 0 0 0 Saturday 17 0 0 0 0 Sunday 13 0 0 0 0 No. of return tripsOne weekday 16 0 0 0 0 Saturday 16 0 0 0 0 Sunday 12 0 0 0 0 Distance (single trip-miles) 3 0 0 0 0 No. of extra buses 1 0 0 0 0 Bus type Midibus (£0.60) 0 0 0 0

A - Erskine-Bishopton Development Bus hours One weekday 0 17 17 17 17 Saturday 0 17 17 17 17 Sunday 0 13 13 13 13 No. of return trips One weekday 0 16 16 16 16 Saturday 0 16 16 16 16 Sunday 0 12 12 12 12 Distance (single trip-miles) 0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 No. of extra buses 0 1 1 1 1 Bus type 0 Midibus (£0.60) Midibus (£0.60) Midibus (£0.60) Midibus (£0.60)

X22 diversion Bus hours One weekday 0 0 0 0 0 Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Sunday 0 0 0 0 0 No. of return trips One weekday 0 11 11 11 11 Saturday 0 11 11 11 11 Sunday 0 11 11 11 11 Distance (single trip-miles) 0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 No. of extra buses 0 0 0 0 0 Bus type 0 Midibus (£0.60) Midibus (£0.60) Midibus (£0.60) Midibus (£0.60)

23 extension to Bishopton Stn Bus hours One weekday 0 17 0 0 0 Saturday 0 17 0 0 0 Sunday 0 13 0 0 0 No. of return tripsOne weekday 32 0 0 0 Saturday 32 0 0 0 Sunday 24 0 0 0 Distance (single trip-miles) 0 2.5 0 0 0 No. of extra buses 0 1 0 0 0 Bus type 0 Double deck (£0.80) 0 0 0

23 extension into Bishopton Development Bus hours One weekday 0 0 17 17 17 Saturday 0 0 17 17 17 Sunday 0 0 13 13 13 No. of return trips One weekday 0 0 32 32 32 Saturday 0 0 32 32 32 Sunday 0 0 24 24 24 Distance (single trip-miles) 0 0 4.8 4.8 4.8 No. of extra buses 0 0 1 1 1 Bus type 0 0 Double deck (£0.80) Double deck (£0.80) Double deck (£0.80)

B- Bishopton-Glasgow Airport Bus hours One weekday 0 13 26 26 26 Saturday 0 13 26 26 26 Sunday 0 13 13 13 13 No. of return trips One weekday 12 24 24 24 Saturday 12 24 24 24 Sunday 12 12 12 12 Distance (single trip-miles) 0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 No. of extra buses 0 1 2 2 2 Bus type 0 Single deck (£0.70) Single deck (£0.70) Single deck (£0.70) Single deck (£0.70)

B - Glasgow Airport-Bridge of Weir extension Bus hours One weekday 0 0 13 13 13 Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Sunday 0 0 0 0 0 No. of return trips One weekday 0 0 12 12 12 Saturday 0 0 0 0 0 Sunday 0 0 0 0 0 Distance (single trip-miles) 0 0 8.2 8.2 8.2 No. of extra buses 0 0 1 1 1 Bus type 0 0 Single deck (£0.70) Single deck (£0.70) Single deck (£0.70)

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Appendix G

Letter from SPT

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name SCT3098 2B Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton