Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Public Transport Study

CONSULTING

Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Public Transport Study

JMP CONSULTING CENTRUM HOUSE, 38 Queen Street, GLASGOW G1 3DX T 0141 221 4030 F 0141 221 4050 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

Job no. Prepared by Verified Approved by Status Issue no. Date B063017 CJY GJB GJB Final 1 17.09.07 Birminhgam Brighton Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Lichfield Liverpool London Manchester Newcastle CONSULTING

Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton

Public Transport Study

Contents Amendment Record This document has been issued and amended as follows: Status/Revision Issue Number Date Approved By Working Draft 1 25.01.2006 Draft 2 17.02.2006 Draft 3 21.02.2006 Draft 4 02.03.2006 Final 1 18.04.2006 Post-EIP 1 15.08.2007 Post-EIP 2 17.09.2007

Birminhgam Brighton Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Lichfield Liverpool London Manchester Newcastle CONSULTING Contents

1 Introduction 1 Background 1 Scope of Work 1 The Proposed Development 2 Structure of Report 2

2 Public Transport Provision 3 Rail 3 Proposed Improvements to the Rail Network 4 Rail Park and Ride 5 Local Bus Services 6

3 Demand for Public Transport 12 The Transport Assessment 12 Trip Generation 12 Trip Distribution 16 Mode Share 18 Full Development Trip Patterns 25 Mitigated Travel Demand 26

4 Providing Access by Public Transport 29 Bus Services - Key Requirements 29 Bus Network Proposals 29 Services Linking Bishopton and Erskine 32 Services to Glasgow 34 Other Proposals 35 Financial Assessment 36 Proposals – Rail Park and Ride 37 Park & Ride Design Statement 39 Impact on Rail Patronage 40

5 Summary and Conclusions 43 Existing Public Transport Services 43 Forecasting 43 Rail Park and Ride 45

Birminhgam Brighton Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Lichfield Liverpool London Manchester Newcastle CONSULTING Appendices

Appendix A Rail Station Interview Survey

Appendix B Accessibility Mapping

Appendix C Travel to Work Maps

Appendix D Bus Timetable Information

Appendix E Phased Implementation of Bus Services

Appendix F Phase 1 Masterplan

Birminhgam Brighton Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Lichfield Liverpool London Manchester Newcastle CONSULTING Tables and Figures

T 1.1 Proposed Development Construction Stages 2 F 2.1 Bus Routes in Bishopton 9 T 2.1 Bishopton commuter destinations by all modes 10 T 2.2 Bishopton commuter destinations by train 10 T 2.3 Bishopton commuter destinations by bus 11 T 3.1 Residential People Trip Generation (Peak) 12 T 3.2 Residential People Trip Generation (Off Peak) 12 T 3.3 Employment People Trip Rates 13 T 3.4 Employment People Trip Generation 13 T 3.5 Education People Trip Generation 14 T 3.6 Number of Secondary School Pupils 15 T 3.7 Food Store People Trip Generation 15 T 3.8 Residential Trip Composition 15 T 3.9 Employment Trip Composition 16 T 3.10 People Trip Generation (Off-site Movements) 16 T 3.11 Distance Travelled to Work by Bishopton Residents 17 T 3.12 Council Area of Residence and Workplace (`1999-2002) 17 T 3.13 Proposed Residential Development – Trip Distribution (two-way) 17 T 3.14 Distance Travelled to Work in Bishopton / Inchinnan 18 T 3.15 Council Area of Residence and Workplace (`1999-2002) 18 T 3.16 Proposed Employment Development People Trip Distribution 19 T 3.17 Student Trip Distribution 19 T 3.18 Mode Share by Distance Travelled to Work by Bishopton Residents 19 T 3.19 Residential AM Peak trip Distribution by Mode 20 T 3.20 Residential PM Peak Trip Distribution by Mode 20 T 3.21 Residential Off Peak Trip Distribution by Mode 21 T 3.22 Mode Share by Distance Travelled to Work in Bishopton 21 T 3.23 Employment Development – AM Peak Trip Distribution by Modes 22 T 3.24 Employment Development – PM Peak Trip Distribution by Mode 23 T 3.24 Employment Development – PM Peak Trip Distribution by Mode 23 T 3.25 Employment Development –Off Peak Trip Distribution by Mode 24 T 3.26 Student Trips Modal Split by Place of Study 24 T 3.27 Modal Split by Place of Study – AM Peak 24 T 3.28 Modal Split By Place of Study – PM Peak 25 T 3.29 Modal Split By Place of Study – Off Peak 25

Birminhgam Brighton Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Lichfield Liverpool London Manchester Newcastle CONSULTING T 3.30 Combined Total Bus Trips AM Peak 26 T 3.31 Combined Total Bus Trips PM Peak 27 T 3.32 Combined Total Bus Trips Off Peak 28 F4.1 Proposed Bus Services on Completion of Development 31 T 4.1 Allocation of Demand to Bus Services 33 T 4.2 Additional Demand – Bishopton and Bishopton – Erskine Services 33 T 4.3 Additional Demand – Service 23 Bishopton – Erskine - Glasgow 35 T 4.4 Additional Demand – Linwood, Houston, Bridge of Weir 35 T 4.5 Financial Performance of Enhanced Bus Services 36 T 4.6 Financial Support for Enhanced Bus Services 37 F 4.2 Illustrative layout of the Station Road Corridor 41 F 4.3 Public Transport Interchange Arrangement 42 T 5.1 Financial Support for Enhanced Bus Services 45

Birminhgam Brighton Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Lichfield Liverpool London Manchester Newcastle CONSULTING

1 Introduction

Background 1.1 The purpose of this study is to develop proposals for public transport to serve the proposed development on the former Royal Ordnance site to the south west of the railway line at Bishopton.

1.2 The station in the village of Bishopton is served by frequent electric trains on the line from Gourock, Greenock and Wemyss Bay to Glasgow. The railway station is the focal point for the few bus services serving the village. There is an hourly local bus service circulating around the village, an hourly service to Erskine and one peak period journey in each direction between Bishopton and Glasgow. There is no bus service on Greenock Road to the west of Bishopton. Hence, people living in the village are heavily dependent upon rail to provide access by public transport to destinations outside the immediate locality.

1.3 The analysis draws upon the Transport Assessment for the site to provide quantification of potential demand for travel by bus and rail. The Transport Assessment also provides a local and regional distribution of trips generated by the development. Scope of Work 1.4 In this study the output of the Transport Assessment is used to identify places that need to be linked with Bishopton by public transport and as a basis for quantifying demand for travel by bus. Proposals are developed for new or improved bus services to provide access for people living or working in the proposed development. Estimates are provided of the additional cost of introducing new or extended bus services, and forecasts are made of the additional patronage and revenue that will be generated. This provides the basis for an assessment of the financial sustainability of proposed bus services and an estimate of the level of financial support that will need to be provided.

1.5 This Public Transport Study used output from the Transport Assessment (second draft, March 2006) as a basis for forecasting demand for travel by public transport that will be generated by the proposed development. This document should therefore be read in conjunction with the Transport Assessment which has since been updated to an August 2007 version to reflect changes in access strategy and phasing, neither of which have any material impact on the public transport proposals developed in this study. It is also worth reinforcing that the scale of development and land use mix has not changed in terms of transport demand assumptions and so the total development figures used in the March 2006 report are consistent with those used in the August 2007 document.

1.6 The objective is to develop proposals for new or extended bus services that will become financially self-sustaining once demand is maximised on completion of development. Demand for bus services will build up over time as development proceeds. There will therefore be a need to provide financial support to bridge the gap between operating cost and revenue as demand builds up towards forecast levels.

1.7 A spreadsheet model has been developed for use in forecasting the additional demand and revenue that would result from the introduction of new or extended bus services during each phase of the proposed development. It is also used to provide estimates of the cost of operation of the proposed bus services.

1 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

The Proposed Development Form and Content of Development 1.8 The proposed development will predominantly consist of residential, employment, commercial and community facilities. The latest masterplan for Phase 1 of the development is included in Appendix F.

Phasing of Development 1.9 It is proposed to construct the development in 6 Phases over a 14 year period, commencing in 2010. Table T1.1 indicates the proposed level of construction at each development stage based on the proposed phasing at August 2007 (previous phasing matrix values are shown in brackets in Table 1.1). Readers should note that detailed trip generation tables (and all of the tables that flow from them) that occur later in the report have not been updated to reflect the detailed changes to the phasing shown below. The view has been taken that since the overall development scale and mix is the same, the overall level of bus service provision would remain unchanged.

1.10 The total development mix and scale is as before and the tables below show the employment land areas in the appropriate timebands when the serviced plots would become available. Again, the reader should note that this may not equate directly to start of transport activity in these areas since the development will still have to be constructed, let and occupied. This is a further reason why we have not replaced all of the calculations that follow with any detailed revised assumptions at this stage.

T 1.1 Proposed Development Construction Stages (Phasing as at August 2007)

Output Phases of Development Housing (units) Employment (ha) Community

2010-2012 (2009-2011) 411 (400) 11.77 (--) Health Centre, Village Square, Footway Links 2013-2015 (2012-2013) 491 (394) 14.60 (8.47) Library, Village Hall, Recreation Ground 2016 (2014 – 2015) 195 (303) --- (3.30) Primary School 2017-2019 (2016-2018) 617 (616) 15.24 (15.90) --- 2020-2021 (2019-2020) 480 (482) 1.84 (15.78) --- 2022-2023 (2021-2022) 306 (305) 2.58 (2.58) --- Total 2,500 46.03 --- Source: Cass Associates (Phasing Matrix) – previous phasing shown in brackets Structure of Report 1.11 The report continues in Chapter 2 with a review of existing public transport services in Bishopton and the surrounding area; an assessment of proposed rail schemes that will have an impact on local rail passenger services passing through Bishopton; and reviews of public transport accessibility and travel to work patterns revealed by the Census 2001.

1.12 Chapter 3 contains an assessment of trip generation, trip distribution and mode share derived mainly from the Transport Assessment. It also contains an explanation of our spreadsheet modelling process and it concludes with quantification of potential demand for travel between Bishopton and a range of destinations by bus on completion of each of the six phases of development.

1.13 Chapter 4 contains our proposals and assessments of additional annual cost and revenue for each proposed new or improved bus service at each phase of development. It concludes with a review of the level of financial support needed for each proposed bus service at each phase of development. An overall summary is provided in Chapter 5.

2 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

2 Public Transport Provision

Rail Rail Passenger Services 2.1 Bishopton is an intermediate station on the electrified Inverclyde Line linking Gourock and Wemyss Bay with Paisley and Glasgow Central. Rail passenger services are operated by First ScotRail under the terms of a franchise that commenced in October 2004 and covers an initial period of seven years extendable by a further three years.

2.2 In daytime on weekdays and Saturdays Bishopton is served by three trains an hour in each direction between Glasgow Central and Gourock and a fourth between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay. Trains serving Bishopton have three different stopping patterns:

? Two trains each hour between Glasgow Central and Gourock serve all stations in each direction. ? The third “Gourock” train is limited stop and serves only Port Glasgow, Bishopton and Paisley Gilmour Street between Gourock and Glasgow Central. ? “Wemyss Bay” trains are also limited stop serving only Bishopton and Paisley Gilmour Street between Port Glasgow and Glasgow Central.

2.3 These services combine to provide departures every 15 minutes from Glasgow Central. However, the effect of operating a mixture of limited stop and all stations services means that headways are uneven in both directions at Bishopton.

2.4 In evenings on weekdays and Saturdays there are three trains in each direction each hour – one all stations between Glasgow and Gourock, one all stations between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay and one limited stop between Glasgow and Gourock. In daytime and early evening on Sundays there is an hourly train serving all stations between Glasgow and Gourock and an hourly limited stop service between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay. In late evenings on Sundays there are no trains to or from Wemyss Bay.

2.5 The great majority of trains are formed by electric multiple units of three cars in length. All of the stations on the Inverclyde Line can accommodate trains of at least six cars but, because of rolling stock availability issues in the context of other operational demands and priorities, only one train in the peak hour is formed of six cars. Bishopton has a longer platform; the length required for passenger use is that needed to accommodate six cars and an overrun area. This length is 146 metres on the basis of six cars each of 24 metres in length plus an overrun area of 2.0 metres in compliance with the requirements set out in Railway Safety Principles and Guidance, Part 2, Section B, Guidance on Stations (HSE, HM Railway Inspectorate).

Bishopton Station 2.6 Bishopton Station is staffed and therefore has a booking and enquiry office in the station building. The First ScotRail web site states that the booking office is open for most trains. The station is not fully accessible. Although there is level access to Platform 1 and the booking office, the steep ramp to Platform 2 does not comply with the guidance provided by Railway Group Standards (Railway and Safety Standards Board) or Railway Safety Principles and Guidance. The station and car park benefit from CCTV surveillance.

2.7 There are bus/rail interchange facilities at Bishopton. There is a bus turning circle and bus stance with passenger shelter on the east side of the railway at the entrance to the main station car park.

2.8 Bishopton Station has a large car park with 117 parking spaces including five designated for parking by disabled drivers. In addition, car park users have created a further eight informal spaces by making use of the area within the bus turning circle. There is a second 3 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

area of parking on the east side of the station forecourt with eleven spaces including three allocated for use by disabled drivers and two allocated to First ScotRail staff. This gives a total of 136 parking spaces. Four cycle lockers are also provided at the station.

2.9 Observations in early 2006 indicated that the station car park was of insufficient capacity to cater for demand as, on a typical weekday, there was also parking on the car park access road and nearby streets. At the request of Renfrewshire Council, BAE Systems made a site available on the south side of the railway line in order that the Council could provide additional off-street parking for the station. Approximately 80 spaces were provided and evidence to date indicates that this is generally well used.

Proposed Improvements to the Rail Network Rail Policy 2.10 In 2005, WESTRANS and SPT published their Joint Transport Strategy for Western Scotland to 2025 to identify transport improvement plans across the region for implementation in the short, medium and long term. Key regional constraints identified included inadequate capacity at Glasgow Central Station and on the line between Glasgow Central and Paisley Gilmour Street. Schemes accorded high priority included the Glasgow Airport Rail Link, Crossrail and enhancement of rail services between Kilmarnock and Glasgow (which share track with Inverclyde services between Paisley and Glasgow Central).

2.11 Devolution of responsibility for the Scottish rail network to the Scottish Assembly following the Railways Act 2005 has provided an opportunity for government to reassess the role of the rail network in Scotland. Consultation has taken place on the strategic priorities for Scotland’s rail network in order to help inform development of the National Transport Strategy.

2.12 Network Rail commenced work on a Route Utilisation Study (RUS) of Scotland during 2005. The objective was to assess capacity, passenger and freight demand, operational performance and cost in order to inform development of timetables for rail services and programmes for the maintenance and renewal of rail infrastructure. The RUS for Scotland was published in March 2007.

Glasgow Airport Rail Link and Crossrail 2.13 Opening of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link (GARL) is expected to take place during 2011 following the Royal Assent of the required Bill in the Scottish Parliament in January 2007. The GARL project will an additional track between Glasgow Central and Paisley and, in association with other signalling alterations, will help to reduce pressure by providing additional capacity for services between Glasgow and Inverclyde and Ayrshire.

2.14 In the longer-term, the Crossrail project will have a more substantial impact on platform capacity at Glasgow Central Station as a result of the diversion of some services. This scheme involves investment in new rail links across Glasgow city centre to allow the operation of rail passenger services linking the rail networks to the south-east and north- west of Glasgow. Diversion of some services via Glasgow Queen Street Low Level will relieve pressure on Glasgow Central – possible benefits could include the ability to provide further capacity on the Inverclyde Line.

2.15 All of the stations on the Inverclyde Line can handle trains formed of six cars but, in the peak hour, only one train of six cars is operated and all of the other trains are of three cars in length. The reason is that, under current operations at Glasgow Central, platforms are often shared by two trains and there is limited scope for accommodating more six car trains. The GARL and Crossrail projects will, together, have the effect of increasing capacity on the approaches to Central Station and in the station itself although other operational changes at Central in the short-term could create additional platform capacity if this was deemed a priority by Network Rail. 4 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

2.16 The lengthy timescale of the proposed development at Bishopton will allow the impact of GARL and, in due course, Crossrail to provide additional capacity in time to absorb increased demand for rail travel arising from the development.

Rail Park and Ride Demand for Park and Ride 2.17 On a typical weekday, the station car parks are full and there is a substantial overflow of parking by train users on to the adjoining streets. Although it is difficult to distinguish rail park and ride from on-street parking by local residents, observation suggested that, in 2006, Bishopton Station attracted about 170 park and ride cars on weekdays. (Following the implementation of the additional car-parking on the BAE Systems site, the figure now is probably nearer to 200.)

2.18 An interview survey was undertaken by JMP on a weekday morning in mid-December 2005 with the permission of First ScotRail in order to establish the proportions of rail users using different modes to access the station and the home locations of rail users. A total of 197 interviews were completed.

2.19 The primary objective of the survey was to determine the scale of park and ride demand generated by residents of Bishopton in order to establish a current rail park and ride trip rate to be applied to the new residential development to determine the number of additional parking spaces that will be required at the rail station. At that time, there was also a suggested need to provide additional parking spaces to cater for the current on- street overflow from the existing rail station car park.

2.20 A copy of the survey questionnaire and a summary of the responses are provided at Appendix A. The key points that emerged from analysis of the interview data are summarised below:

? 49% of interviewees walked to the station, 47.5% arrived by car and only 2.5% by bus and 1% by taxi. ? 73% of car users were drivers and the remaining 27% were passengers. ? 71% of station users started their journeys in Bishopton, 21% in Erskine and the remainder were from further afield. ? The main destinations for train users were Glasgow (71%) and Paisley (18%) – only 6% of users were travelling to destinations to the west. ? The predominant journey purpose was travel to work (78%) with education and shopping accounting for 7% and 10% respectively. ? 65% of trips were made on 5 days or more each week, 20% on 2-4 days each week and 12% of journeys were made less than weekly.

2.21 It is possible to draw a number of conclusions from the survey results: It can be assumed that the 49% of interviewees that walked to the station live in Bishopton. The remaining 22% of interviewees living in Bishopton and all interviewees from Erskine can be assumed to arrive by car or bus. It can also be assumed that the 8% of interviewees from further away all arrived by car.

2.22 Of the 140 people from Bishopton interviewed at the rail station, 97 arrived on foot and five by bus. Of the remaining 38 that arrived by car, 28 (73%) were car drivers. Application of the same percentage to the 57 car users from Erskine and further afield, indicates that 42 were car drivers. Hence, 70 of the interviewees were car drivers parking their vehicles at the station.

2.23 A factor of 2.4 must be applied in order to “gross up” the interview sample of 70 car drivers to represent the total number of 170 cars parked at the station. On this basis, 68 of the parked cars originate in Bishopton, 72 in Erskine and 29 in places further away.

5 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Local Bus Services Bus Network 2.24 The railway station is the focal point for public transport in Bishopton. The First ScotRail service from Gourock and Wemyss Bay to Paisley and Glasgow Central provides the principal means of access to the village by public transport.

2.25 When the examination of bus services was first undertaken in 2005, there was a limited network of local bus services providing little more than a local distributor service and a link to Erskine. Figure F2.1 shows bus routes in the Bishopton area.

2.26 Arriva SW operated a commercial service (27) between Bishopton, Erskine, Renfrew, the Braehead Shopping Centre and Glasgow city centre in the daytime on Mondays to Saturdays. That service was withdrawn by Arriva in 2005 as it was not viable. It has been replaced by one weekday morning peak period journey to Erskine, Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow city centre on Service 23 with no corresponding return journey in the evening peak period. Both journeys are operated on a commercial basis.

2.27 SPT provides financial support for two local bus services operated by Slaemuir Coaches in daytime on Mondays to Saturdays using a single accessible vehicle. The two services both operate hourly – Service 520 is the Bishopton Local Service and Service 521 provides a link to the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine. Last journeys on both services are sufficiently late to cater for commuters returning from Glasgow by train.

2.28 In addition, Service 55 operated by Marbill Coach Services consists of several schooldays only journeys between Beith, Paisley, Erskine and Bishopton. There are also several longer distance coach services operating to different destinations (e.g. Stirling, Inverary).

2.29 Bishopton and Erskine are also served by the SPT Dial-a-Bus demand responsive service provided for people who are unable to use or have difficulty in using mainstream public transport. Eligibility criteria restrict use to people aged over 80 years, blind people, recipients of particular DSS benefits (e.g. attendance allowance, disability living allowance paid at the higher mobility rate), and people with medical evidence of their inability to use buses and trains. The service provides access from home to local facilities.

2.30 In updating this report, a further review of local bus services has been undertaken. This identified the current service patterns to be as shown in Table 2.1.

6 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 2.1 Schedule of Bus Services at August 2007

Operator Bus No. Route Frequency Frequency Frequency (Mon –Fri) (Sat) (Sun) Arriva Scotland 23 / 23a Glasgow City Centre - Every 12 Every 12 Every 30 West Bishopton mins mins mins (Daytime); (Daytime); Every 30 Every 30 mins mins (Evening) (Evening) Avondale 521 Erskine - Erskine Hospital - Every Hour Every Hour No Service Coaches Bishopton Station Interlink (commuter service) Avondale 450 / Barnbrock – Ranfurly or Ring ‘n’ Ride Ring ‘n’ Ring ‘n’ Coaches 965 Bishopton - Ferry Road area Ride Ride Scottish Travel X24 Greenock – Pollock Centre Every 2 Every 2 No Service Hours Hours (Thursday only) Slaemuir 520 Bishopton - Bishopton Station Every Hour Every Hour No Service Coaches Local Interlink Slaemuir 521 Erskine - Bishopton Station Every Hour Every Hour No Service Coaches Interlink McGills Bus 902 Paisley – Greenock Every 90 Every 90 No Service Service mins mins McGills Bus 501 Gourock – Bishopton - Mondays No Service No Service Service Inveraray Only; Once a day (Not Bank Holidays) McGills Bus 502 Gourock - Bishopton - Thursdays No Service No Service Service Callander only; Once a day (Not Bank Holidays) McGills Bus 503 Gourock - Bishopton - Stirling Wednesdays Once a day No Service Service Only; Once a (Not Bank day (Not Holidays) Bank Holidays) McGills Bus 508 Gourock – Bishopton - Oban Tuesadys No Service No Service Service and Fridays Only; Once a day (Not Bank Holidays)

Accessibility 2.31 The purpose of considering accessibility in this study is to show travel times from Bishopton to key destinations using public transport. The normal approach is to use bus route, bus stop and timetable data in a standard electronic format in the program Accession in order to generate maps showing travel time bands and, by using Census demographic data, to show the population resident in each of those travel time bands. Difficulty was experienced in obtaining bus route, timetable and bus stop information from SPT or Traveline in a format suitable for use in generating accessibility maps.

2.32 We therefore used an alternative method to produce a map simulating accessibility by bus to and from Bishopton Station. Post codes were identified for a series of destinations in an area extending west to Port Glasgow, north to Balloch, south to Barrhead and east to 7 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Kirkintilloch, Muirhead and Baillieston. Travel times by bus and rail to Bishopton from these locations were determined using Transport Direct – the online national transport information service. A desired arrival time in Bishopton of 10:00 was used in all cases to provide a valid basis for comparison. Using this process, there is no constraint on the number of changes of mode or bus that can be made to complete a journey.

2.33 The output was then plotted on an OS base map using a range of colours to simulate different travel time bands. Appendix B contains the output of this process in the form of two maps – one showing travel times achievable by bus and rail and one showing travel times by bus only.

2.34 The map shows the generally poor level of accessibility to and from Bishopton by bus. No-where outside Bishopton is accessible in less than 20 minutes and the area within the 21-40 minutes travel time band is relatively small. Many destinations in Glasgow are at the higher end of the 41-60 minutes travel time band. For comparison, it takes 18 minutes to travel from Bishopton Station to Glasgow Central on a limited stop train and 24 minutes on an all stations train.

8 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

F 2.1 Bus Routes in Bishopton (2005)

9 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Travel to Work 2.35 The journey to work information used in this study was obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland’s online 2001 Census database. This data provides an insight into the main commuter destinations of workers living in Bishopton. As these journeys are being made to the workplace it can be assumed that the great majority of outbound journeys will be made before 10:00 on weekdays.

2.36 Data derived from the 2001 Census indicates that approximately 2,100 commuter trips originate within Bishopton. Table T2.2 illustrates that approximately 46% of these commuters stay within the village to work whilst 21% are destined for Paisley, Glenburn and the surrounding area. Glasgow is the fourth most popular workplace for Bishopton residents, being the destination of approximately 164 (8%) commuters.

T 2.2 Bishopton commuter destinations by all modes

Total Commuters by Percentage Destination All Modes Bishopton 992 46 Paisley, Glenburn & surrounds 453 21 Glasgow 164 8 Greenock & Port Glasgow 99 5 Erskine 19 1 East Kilbride 12 1 All other destinations 410 19 Total 2149 -

2.37 Table T2.3 presents the approximate number of commuters from Bishopton travelling by train to work and states that around 140 people are currently travelling by this mode. Glasgow is the most popular destination for rail commuters, with approximately 51 (36%) commuters heading for the city. Central Paisley is the second most popular destination with around 20-30 commuters from Bishopton travelling there.

T 2.3 Bishopton commuter destinations by train

Total Commuters by Percentage Destination Train Glasgow 51 36 Paisley 24 17 Greenock 6 4 Kilmalcom 3 2 Erskine 3 2 All other destinations 54 38 Total 141 -

2.38 An approximate guide to the number of commuters travelling by bus from Bishopton is presented in Table T2.4 below. A total of just 49 people stated that they used bus to commute to their workplace from their home in Bishopton. This mode therefore constitutes just over 2% of all commuter journeys. Paisley and the surrounding area emerge as the main workplace destinations for commuters travelling from Bishopton, with approximately 30 commuter trips (15%) ending here. This compares with 13% of all commuter trips which end in the second most popular destination of Erskine.

10 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 2.4 Bishopton commuter destinations by bus

Total Commuters by Percentage Destination Bus Paisley & surround 15 31 Erskine 13 27 Linwood 6 12 Glenburn 6 12 Bishopton 3 6 Govan 3 6 Kernock Point 3 6 All other destinations 0 0 Total 49 -

2.39 Maps illustrating the distribution of commuter destinations are provided in Appendix C. They are based on numbers of trips made to destination output areas – which can vary considerably in size depending on whether they are in urban or rural locations. The purpose is to provide a picture of distribution to support the quantitative information given in Tables T2.1, T2.2 and T2.3.

2.40 The “all modes” map shows a wide range of commuter destinations; the “rail” map shows that work trips made by train have destinations in Glasgow and places that are accessible by bus through interchange at rail stations; whilst the “bus” map shows the limited range of commuter destinations.

11 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

3 Demand for Public Transport

The Transport Assessment 3.1 In this chapter, information from the Transport Assessment (applied from second draft, March 2006 version, but with total numbers on completion consistent with August 2007 version) and a variety of sources is brought together to quantify the potential market for public transport in order to provide a basis for development of financially sustainable proposals for providing essential links by developing the local bus network.

3.2 The Transport Assessment (TA) focuses on demand for travel in peak hours in order to provide a basis for assessing the network impact of the additional traffic generated by the proposed development. Focusing on the peak period is also an appropriate way of assessing the impact of the development in terms of additional demand for local rail passenger services. The scale of provision of new or improved local bus services is also governed by the need to cater for demand in peak periods but, in addition, it is also essential to make an estimate of total demand at peak and off-peak times in order to forecast annual revenue and, by comparison with annual operating costs, to quantify any need for revenue support and to establish prospects for long term financial sustainability. Trip Generation Residential Development 3.3 The number of people trips generated by the development has been estimated from the TRICS trip generation database. Tables T3.1 and T3.2 indicate the residential trips rates obtained and the resultant people trips associated with the residential element of the proposed development.

T 3.1 Residential People Trip Generation (Peak)

Phase Year Houses AM Peak Period PM Peak Period IN Out Total In Out Total Residential Trip 0.22 1.14 1.36 0.69 0.43 1.12 Rate (per house) Residential Trips 1 2009-2011 400 88 456 544 276 172 448 2 2012-2013 794 176 912 1088 552 344 896 3 2014-2015 1097 242 1255 1497 759 473 1232 4 2016-2018 1713 374 1939 2313 1173 731 1905 5 2019-2020 2195 484 2509 2993 1519 946 2465 6 2021-2022 2500 550 2851 3401 1726 1075 2801

T 3.2 Residential People Trip Generation (Off Peak)

Phase Year Houses Off Peak Period IN Out Total Residential Trip 0.28 0.38 0.66 Rate (per house) Residential Trips 1 2009-2011 400 112 152 264 2 2012-2013 794 224 304 528 3 2014-2015 1097 308 418 726 4 2016-2018 1713 476 646 1122 5 2019-2020 2195 616 836 1453 6 2021-2022 2500 700 950 1651 12 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Employment Development 3.4 The people trip generation of the main employment element has been based on the assumption that the employment element will have a total GFA of 138,000m2.

3.5 People trip rates as indicated by Table T3.3 were adopted for calculating the number of trips associated with the development’s main employment elements. The resulting numbers of trips are shown in Table T3.4.

T 3.3 Employment People Trip Rates

Trip Generation Rates AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Off Peak (per 100sqm GFA) IN OUT Total IN OUT Total IN OUT Total Office (110,400sqm) 2.20 0.24 2.44 0.25 1.66 1.91 0.71 0.48 1.19 General Industry 0.84 0.29 1.13 0.16 0.70 0.86 0.27 0.29 0.56 (13,800sqm) Warehouse/Distribution 0.52 0.21 0.73 0.10 0.45 0.55 0.76 0.35 1.11 (13,800sqm)

T 3.4 Employment People Trip Generation

Phase Development GFA AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Off Peak Type (m2) & Year IN Out Total In Out Total In Out Total 1 Office 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (2009- General 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011) Industry Warehouse 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Office 20,976 461 50 512 52 348 401 148 101 249 (2012- General 2,622 22 8 30 4 18 23 7 8 15 2013) Industry Warehouse 2,622 14 6 19 3 12 14 20 9 29 3 Office 28,704 631 69 700 72 476 548 203 138 341 (2014- General 3,588 30 10 41 6 25 31 10 10 20 2015) Industry Warehouse 3,588 19 8 26 4 16 20 27 13 40 4 Office 67,344 1,482 162 1,643 168 1,118 1,286 476 323 799 (2016- General 8,418 71 24 95 13 59 72 22 24 47 2018) Industry Warehouse 8,418 44 18 61 8 38 46 64 29 93 5 Office 104,880 2,307 252 2,559 262 1,741 2,003 742 503 1245 (2019- General 13,110 110 38 148 21 92 113 35 38 73 2020) Industry Warehouse 13,110 68 28 96 13 59 72 99 46 145 6 Office 110,400 2,429 265 2,694 276 1,833 2,109 781 530 1311 (2021- General 13,800 116 40 156 22 97 119 37 40 77 2022) Industry Warehouse 13,800 72 29 101 14 62 76 104 48 153

3.6 Student Trip Generation Analysis of the Census data, assuming 75% of 18 year old students are still at secondary school, reveals that a total of 334 students travel from Bishopton to their respective places of study, equating to a percentage of 11.2%.

13 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

3.7 Application of this percentage figure to the generated residential people trip figures gives estimates of 298 AM peak, 253 PM peak and 128 off-peak student trips.

Primary Education Trips 3.8 Renfrewshire Council’s Education Department has estimated that there are likely to be 400 primary school pupils associated with the new development.

3.9 It is proposed that the Bishopton development site would house a new primary school. For the purposes of assessment, we have assumed that the primary school will have capacity for 400 pupils, a figure provided to us by Renfrewshire Council’s Education Department. We would envisage that the majority of staff trips to the site will be external while all of the pupil trips to the school would be internal to Bishopton – including some from the existing community.

3.10 Analysis of a database containing all the schools in the Renfrewshire Local Authority area has revealed the following ratios of full time equivalent (FTE) staff to pupils:

? Primary – 1 FTE staff member to every 20 pupils

3.11 Applying the analysis of staff numbers to the expected capacity of the school reveals the people trip generation characteristics for staff members.

3.12 Table T3.5 shows the people trip generation for the primary school staff associated with the proposed development. It has been assumed that an additional 6 support staff will be required at the school. This gives a total of 26 staff. It has been assumed that all trips in the AM period are arrivals and that all trips in the PM period are departures.

T 3.5 Education People Trip Generation

Pupils Staff Ratio (1 member of staff to number of Staff Numbers pupils) Primary 400 20 20

3.13 The PM peak period for primary schools is highlighted within TRICS as 15:00-16:00 (with the majority of trips in the first half hour of this period), clearly outwith the network peak for this area of Renfrewshire which is 16:45-17:45. However, it has been assumed that this peak relates to pupils leaving at the end of the school day and that staff would depart at a later time. Therefore, it has been assumed that 13 (50%) departures from the school will be made during the PM peak period by staff.

3.14 Over the development stages the number of primary education people trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the ongoing residential development, to a maximum of 400 in 2021-2022. All primary school trips are assumed to be within the development area.

Secondary Education Trips 3.15 With regard to secondary school education, it is envisaged that pupils originating from the residential element of the proposed development will require to travel outwith the development site. The likely number of secondary school pupils has been determined from Census data, particularly household occupancy figures for Bishopton, which has been applied to the proposed total number of development houses. The results of this calculation are indicated in Table T3.6.

3.16 Table T3.6 indicates that the proposed development is likely to generate 368 secondary school pupil trips. Notwithstanding, it should be noted that the number of pupils has been taken from the 12 to 15 age band and therefore does not account for 16 to 17 year olds attending secondary school. We would therefore consider our figure of 368 pupils to be robust in terms of assessment. 14 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.6 Number of Secondary School Pupils

No. of Household Total Population Population Pecentage Total Pupils Houses Occupancy Household of Aged of (based on Factor Population Bishopton 12 to 15 Bishopton household Population population) 2,500 2.72 6,802 5,157 278 5.4% 368

3.17 Over the development stages the number of secondary education people trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the ongoing residential development, to a maximum of 368 in 2021-2022.

Internal Trips 3.18 Table T3.7 indicates the people trip generation associated with retail development. The trip rates used were obtained from an interrogation of the TRICS database. All trips associated with the local facilities are assumed to be internal to the site. The number of trips has been reduced to account for pass-by and linked trips.

T 3.7 Food Store People Trip Generation

AM Period PM Period Off-peak In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total Trip rate (per 100sqm) 5.92 3.74 9.66 11.70 11.52 23.22 13.32 11.22 23.22 People Trips (2021- 148 94 242 293 288 581 333 281 614 2022) With 30% pass-by 104 65 169 205 202 406 233 196 429

3.19 Over the development phases the number of food store trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the ongoing residential development trips.

3.20 Trip purpose data presented within the Scottish Household Statistics report (TRN/2005/2) indicates that approximately 5-7% of trips made during the peak hour are for entertainment or leisure purposes. Therefore, we have assumed that 5% of the total residential trip generation will be internal trips to the local residential community (i.e. trips from one house to another) and leisure facilities such as the park.

3.21 Internal trips associated with the leisure and community facilities are as shown in Table T3.8.

T 3.8 Residential Trip Composition

AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Off peak IN OUT Total IN OUT Total IN OUT Total Total Residential Generation (2021-2022) 550 2851 3401 1726 1075 2801 700 950 1651

Leisure Trips (5%) 28 143 170 86 54 140 35 48 83

3.22 Over the development phases the number of residential trips is assumed to grow at the same rate as the ongoing residential development trips.

3.23 Analysis of the 2001 Census travel to work data for the Bishopton and Erskine S.E./Inchinnan wards which contain similar types of employment to that envisaged at the new site shows that 16.7% of residents are employed in the ward in which they live. An internal trip rate of 15% was therefore used in order to provide a robust estimate of internal employment trips. Employment trip composition is shown in Table T3.9. 15 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.9 Employment Trip Composition

AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Off Peak

IN OUT Total IN OUT Total IN OUT Total Total Employment 2,486 317 2,803 296 1,892 2,188 876 587 1,463 Generation (2021-2022) Internal Trips (15%) (2021- 373 48 420 44 284 328 131 88 219 2022)

Total External Trips 3.24 All residential trips excluding development retail, leisure and community facilities and primary school trips are assumed to be external. All employment trips, excluding 15% assumed to be internal, and all student trips are assumed to be external to the site.

3.25 Table T3.10 indicates the total weekday external trips by period over the six development phases.

T 3.10 People Trip Generation (Off-site Movements)

Phase Year AM Peak Period PM Peak Period Off-peak IN Out Total In Out Total In Out Total 1 2009-2011 67 359 426 230 131 361 69 172 241 2 2012-2013 557 772 1,328 509 584 1,093 287 444 731 3 2014-2015 789 1,061 1,849 700 814 1,,514 394 622 1,016 4 2016-2018 1,668 1,698 3,366 1,137 1,603 2,740 772 814 1,586 5 2019-2020 2,508 2,244 4,751 1,514 2,343 3,857 1,125 1,458 2,583 6 2021-2022 2,669 2,527 5,196 1,700 2,526 4,225 1,216 1,613 2,829

Trip Distribution Methodology for Residential Development 3.26 People Trip Generation was calculated using information from the TRICS database for residential related trips.

3.27 Residential Development People Trip Distribution can be expected to follow existing patterns of Bishopton residents and wider patterns in Renfrewshire. The existing trip distribution was obtained through analysis of 2001 Census travel to work data. The patterns identified indicate high proportions of residents working within 5km of Bishopton. It is considered appropriate to continue with this pattern because, firstly, there will be a significant number of new jobs in Bishopton encouraging synergy between land uses and, secondly, the trip generation relates to all trips and not just trips to work. Hence, a high degree of non work related trips will occur - for example, taking children to school.

3.28 The distribution of trips within distance travelled bands has been undertaken using gravity model principles. For residential development, this process is based on the number of jobs within ward areas (these are taken from Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 2001 (ABI) Statistics).

16 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

3.29 The 2001 Census identified the distance which people from Bishopton currently travel to work and the Scottish Household Survey indicated the Council area of workplace. These are indicated in Tables T3.11 and T3.12.

T 3.11 Distance Travelled to Work by Bishopton Residents

Distance Travelled 0-5km 5km-10km 10km-20km 20km+ Percentage 20% 32% 41% 7%

T 3.12 Council Area of Residence and Workplace (`1999-2002)

Area of Workplace Area of Residence Glasgow Argyle/Dunbarton Renfrewshire Others Total / Inverclyde Renfrewshire / Inverclyde 28% 3% 62% 7% 100%

3.30 The above data sets were combined to determine an appropriate distribution of travel to work from the proposed development at Bishopton. Table T3.13 indicates the distribution of travel to work by employment location.

T 3.13 Proposed Residential Development – Trip Distribution (two-way)

Distance Percent Employment Location 2021-2022 2021-2022 2021-2022 Comments Band by Band AM Trips PM Trips Off-peak Trips 0-5km 20% Bishopton 173 147 74 Erskine Central 25 21 11 Erskine West 275 233 117 5-10km 32% Glasgow Airport 347 294 148 St James 90 76 38 Erskine SEast and 88 74 38 Inchinnan Linwood (East and 53 45 23 West) Houston/Bridge of Weir/ Brookfield/Craigend/ 108 92 46 Langbank Dumbartonshire / 3% of total 71 60 30 Argyle 10-20km 41% Paisley 143 121 61 Johnstone 30 26 13 Glasgow 662 561 283 28% of total Port Glasgow plus 53 45 23 part Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 7 6 3 Renfrew / Braehead 73 62 31 20km+ 7% Remainder of 165 140 71 Inverclyde Total 100% 2,364 2,002 1,011

Methodology for Employment Development 3.31 Employment People Trip Generation was calculated using information from the TRICS database for employment related trips. 17 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

3.32 Distribution of development related trips generally follow existing patterns of a similar location, IBM Greenock, where the travel to work patterns to that ward reflect the dominant influence of the IBM plant and its associated rail station. Secondly, this information is considered in tandem with travel to work details for the Bishopton and Inchinnan areas and adjusted to provide an appropriate pattern for new development at Bishopton. The patterns indicated by the Census indicate that 36% of people who work in Renfrewshire travel no more than 5km to work. It is considered appropriate to continue with this pattern because the new employment development in Bishopton will be accessible to a significant number of new residences.

3.33 Distribution of trips within distance travel bands has been undertaken using gravity model principles. The process is based on the number of people within ward areas taken from the Census.

3.34 The 2001 Census identified the distance which people working in Bishopton and Inchinnan travelled to work and the Scottish Household Survey indicated the Council area of workplace. These are indicated in Tables T3.14 and T3.15.

T 3.14 Distance Travelled to Work in Bishopton / Inchinnan

Distance Travelled 0-5km 5km-10km 10km-20km 20km+ Percentage 27% 21% 32% 20%

T 3.15 Council Area of Residence and Workplace (`1999-2002)

Area of Workplace Area of Residence Glasgow Argyle/Dunbarton Renfrewshire Others Total / Inverclyde Renfrewshire / Inverclyde 13% 4% 63% 20% 100%

3.35 The above data sets were combined to determine an appropriate distribution of travel to work at the proposed development at Bishopton. Table T3.16 indicates the distribution of travel to work in Bishopton.

Methodology for Student Trips 3.36 Based on the Census data described above, Table T3.17 indicates the percentage AM Peak, PM Peak and off peak student trip distribution to their place of study,

Mode Share Methodology for Residential Development 3.37 The mode share used is that currently occurring in Bishopton again taken from the 2001 census data. The mode share is applied in bands of distance travelled to reflect local walking and at the other end of the scale the high proportion of car trips on longer distances. The impact of the train is also included. However, no adjustment has been made to account for the upgrade of services on the Bishopton line which could increase the percentage of travel by train. Mode share figures are given in Table T3.18.

3.38 The application of the mode share shown in Table T3.18 to the trip distribution identifies the total trip movements by mode associated with AM and PM peak hour and off-peak residential development related trips respectively. The resulting trip distribution pattern by mode associated with the proposed residential development at Bishopton when completed is indicated by Table T3.19 for the AM peak period, Table T3.20 for the PM peak period and Table T3.21 for the off-peak scenario.

18 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.16 Proposed Employment Development People Trip Distribution

Distance Percent Resident Location 2021- 2021-2022 2021-2022 Comments Band by 2022 PM Trips Off-peak Band AM Trips Trips

0-5km 27% Bishopton 388 302 202 Erskine Central 147 114 77 Erskine West 149 116 78 5-10km 21% Shotroods 44 34 23 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 119 93 62 Linwood (East and West) 124 96 65 Bridge of Weir 95 74 49 Houston/Craigend/ Langbank 50 39 26 Dumbartonshire / 4% of total Clydebank 101 79 53 10-20km 32% Paisley 243 189 127 Johnstone 98 77 51 Glasgow 329 256 172 13% ot total Port Glasgow plus part Inverclyde 51 39 26 Kilmalcolm 17 13 9 Renfrew / Braehead 73 56 38 Central (1% total) 20km+ 20% 25 20 13 North Lanarkshire 51 39 26 South Lanarkshire 76 59 40 Ayrshire 152 118 79 Greenock and Gourock 203 158 106 Total 100% 2,534 1,971 1,322

T 3.17 Student Trip Distribution

Place of Study Percentage Student Trips

AM Peak PM Peak Off Peak Glasgow 42.1% 126 106 54 Inverclyde 12.6% 38 32 16 Renfrew 45.3% 135 114 58 Total 100% 298 253 128

T 3.18 Mode Share by Distance Travelled to Work by Bishopton Residents

Percentage Mode 0-5km 5km-10km 10km-20km 20km+ Share Walk 14 2 0 0 Cycle 1 1 0 0 Bus 3 2 1 1 Train 3 12 26 10 Car 66 75 65 86 Other 13 8 8 3 All Modes 100 100 100 100

19 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.19 Residential AM Peak trip Distribution by Mode

Total Two-way People Trips 2021-2022

Distance Employment Location AM Car Band Walk Cycle Bus Train Car Peak Passenger

0-5km Bishopton 173 24 2 5 5 114 23 Erskine Central 25 4 0 1 1 17 3 Erskine West 275 38 3 8 8 181 36 5-10km Glasgow Airport 347 7 3 7 42 260 28 St James 90 2 1 2 11 67 7 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 88 2 1 2 11 66 7 Linwood (East and West) 53 1 1 1 6 40 4 Houston/Bridge of Weir/ Brookfield/Craigend/ Langbank 108 2 1 2 13 81 9 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 71 1 1 1 9 53 6 10-20km Paisley 143 0 0 1 37 93 11 Johnstone 30 0 0 0 8 20 2 Glasgow 662 0 0 7 172 430 53 Port Glasgow plus part

Inverclyde 53 0 0 1 14 35 4 Kilmalcolm 7 0 0 0 2 5 1 Renfrew / Braehead 73 0 0 1 19 48 6 20km+ Remainder of Inverclyde 165 0 0 2 17 142 5 Total 2,364 81 12 41 374 1,652 204

T 3.20 Residential PM Peak Trip Distribution by Mode

Total Two-way People Trips 2021-2022

Distance Employment Location PM Car Band Walk Cycle Bus Train Car Peak Passenger

0-5km Bishopton 147 21 1 4 4 97 19 Erskine Central 21 3 0 1 1 14 3 Erskine West 233 33 2 7 7 154 30 5-10km Glasgow Airport 294 6 3 6 35 220 24 St James 76 2 1 2 9 57 6 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 74 1 1 1 9 56 6 Linwood (East and West) 45 1 0 1 5 34 4 Houston/Bridge of Weir/ Brookfield/Craigend/ Langbank 92 2 1 2 11 69 7 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 60 1 1 1 7 45 5 10-20km Paisley 121 0 0 1 32 79 10 Johnstone 26 0 0 0 7 17 2 Glasgow 561 0 0 6 146 364 45 Port Glasgow plus part

Inverclyde 45 0 0 0 12 29 4 Kilmalcolm 6 0 0 0 2 4 0 Renfrew / Braehead 62 0 0 1 16 40 5 20km+ Remainder of Inverclyde 140 0 0 1 14 121 4 Total 2,002 69 10 34 316 1,399 173

20 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.21 Residential Off Peak Trip Distribution by Mode

Total Two-way People Trips 2021-2022

Distance Employment Location Off Car Band Walk Cycle Bus Train Car Peak Passenger

0-5km Bishopton 74 10 1 2 2 49 10 Erskine Central 11 2 0 0 0 7 1 Erskine West 117 16 1 4 4 78 15 5-10km Glasgow Airport 148 3 1 3 18 111 12 St James 38 1 0 1 5 29 3 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 38 1 0 1 5 28 3 Linwood (East and West) 23 0 0 0 3 17 2 Houston/Bridge of Weir/ Brookfield/Craigend/ Langbank 46 1 0 1 6 35 4 Dumbartonshire / Argyle 30 1 0 1 4 23 2 10-20km Paisley 61 0 0 1 16 40 5 Johnstone 13 0 0 0 3 8 1 Glasgow 283 0 0 3 74 184 23 Port Glasgow plus part

Inverclyde 23 0 0 0 6 15 2 Kilmalcolm 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 Renfrew / Braehead 31 0 0 0 8 20 3 20km+ Remainder of Inverclyde 71 0 0 1 7 61 2 Total 1,011 35 5 17 160 706 87

Methodology for Employment Development 3.39 The mode share used is the mode share measured for employment in the Greenock Ward which is dominated by IBM, adjusted to account for the local circumstances measured in Bishopton and Inchinnan. Given that both sites have a strong relationship to a train station, the impact of travel to work by train is also included.

3.40 The mode share which has been applied to the above people trips has been taken from the 2001 Census, where mode of travel by distance travelled to work is provided. For Bishopton, the Census details for mode share by distance are indicated in Table T3.22.

T 3.22 Mode Share by Distance Travelled to Work in Bishopton

Percentage Mode Total 0-5km 5km-10km 10km-20km 20km+ Share All Modes 100% 36% 22% 26% 16% Train 4% 0% 1% 10% 10% Bus 19% 21% 28% 13% 13% Car / Taxi 52% 37% 50% 65% 65% Car Passenger 16% 19% 20% 12% 12% Motorcycle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bicycle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Foot 9% 23% 1% 0% 0%

3.41 The resulting trip distribution patterns by mode associated with the employment development at Bishopton are indicated by Tables T3.23, T3.24 and T3.25 for the AM peak, PM peak and off-peak scenarios respectively. 21 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.23 Employment Development – AM Peak Trip Distribution by Modes

Total Two-way People Trips 2021-2022

Distance Band Employment Location Car AM Peak Walk Cycle Bus Train Car Passenger 0-5km Bishopton 388 89 0 81 0 143 74 Erskine Central 147 34 0 31 0 54 28 Erskine West 149 34 0 31 0 55 28 5-10km Shortroods 44 0 0 12 0 22 9 Bridge of Weir 119 1 0 33 1 59 24 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 124 1 0 35 1 62 25 Linwood (East and West) 95 1 0 26 1 47 19 Houston/Craigend/ Langbank 50 0 0 14 0 25 10 Dumbarton/Clydebank 101 1 0 28 1 51 20 10-20km Paisley 243 0 0 32 24 158 29 Johnstone 98 0 0 13 10 64 12 Glasgow 329 0 0 43 33 214 40

Port Glasgow 51 0 0 7 5 33 6 Kilmalcolm 17 0 0 2 2 11 2

Renfrew / Braehead 73 0 0 9 7 47 9 20km+ Central (1% total) 25 0 0 3 3 16 3

North Lanarkshire 51 0 0 7 5 33 6 South Lanarkshire 76 0 0 10 8 49 9 Ayrshire 152 0 0 20 15 99 18 Greenock and Gourock 203 0 0 26 20 132 24 Total 2,534 163 0 464 137 1,376 395

22 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.24 Employment Development – PM Peak Trip Distribution by Mode

Total Two-way People Trips 2021-2022 Distance Employment Location Band PM Car Walk Cycle Bus Train Car Peak Passenger 0-5km Bishopton 302 69 0 63 0 112 57 Erskine Central 114 26 0 24 0 42 22 Erskine West 116 27 0 24 0 43 22 5-10km Shortroods 34 0 0 10 0 17 7 Bridge of Weir 93 1 0 26 1 46 19 Erskine SEast and 96 1 0 27 1 48 19 Inchinnan Linwood (East and 74 1 0 21 1 37 15 West) Houston/Craigend/ 39 0 0 11 0 19 8 Langbank Dumbarton/Clydebank 79 1 0 22 1 39 16 10-20km Paisley 189 0 0 25 19 123 23 Johnstone 77 0 0 10 8 50 9 Glasgow 256 0 0 33 26 167 31 Port Glasgow 39 0 0 5 4 26 5 Kilmalcolm 13 0 0 2 1 8 2 Renfrew / Braehead 56 0 0 7 6 37 7 20km+ Central (1% total) 20 0 0 3 2 13 2 North Lanarkshire 39 0 0 5 4 26 5 South Lanarkshire 59 0 0 8 6 38 7 Ayrshire 118 0 0 15 12 77 14 Greenock and 158 0 0 20 16 102 19 Gourock Total 1,971 127 0 361 107 1,070 307

23 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.25 Employment Development –Off Peak Trip Distribution by Mode

Total Two-way People Trips 2021-2022 Distance Employment Location Band Off Car Walk Cycle Bus Train Car Peak Passenger 0-5km Bishopton 202 47 0 42 0 75 38 Erskine Central 77 18 0 16 0 28 15 Erskine West 78 18 0 16 0 29 15 5-10km Shortroods 23 0 0 6 0 11 5 Bridge of Weir 62 1 0 17 1 31 12 Erskine SEast and

Inchinnan 65 1 0 18 1 32 13 Linwood (East and

West) 49 0 0 14 0 25 10 Houston/Craigend/

Langbank 26 0 0 7 0 13 5 Dumbarton/Clydebank 53 1 0 15 1 26 11 10-20km Paisley 127 0 0 16 13 82 15 Johnstone 51 0 0 7 5 33 6 Glasgow 172 0 0 22 17 112 21 Port Glasgow 26 0 0 3 3 17 3 Kilmalcolm 9 0 0 1 1 6 1 Renfrew / Braehead 38 0 0 5 4 25 5 20km+ Central (1% total) 13 0 0 2 1 9 2 North Lanarkshire 26 0 0 3 3 17 3 South Lanarkshire 40 0 0 5 4 26 5 Ayrshire 79 0 0 10 8 52 10 Greenock and

Gourock 106 0 0 14 11 69 13 Total 1,322 85 0 242 72 718 206

Methodology for Student Trips 3.42 Based on the calculations and Census data (CAS 218), Table T3.26 indicates the modal split for students to their respective place of study. The resulting number of trips by mode for the AM peak, PM peak and off peak periods is shown in Tables T3.27 to T3.29.

T 3.26 Student Trips Modal Split by Place of Study

Percentage by Mode Place of Study Total Train Bus Car Driver Passenger Glasgow 82.1% 3.8% 10.3% 3.8% 100% Inverclyde 60.9% 34.8% 4.3% 0% 100% Renfrew 31.6% 49.4% 12.7% 6.3% 100%

T 3.27 Modal Split by Place of Study – AM Peak

Total Two-way People Trips

Place of Study Car AM Peak Bus Train Car Passenger Glasgow 126 5 103 13 5 Inverclyde 38 13 23 2 0 Renfrew 135 67 43 17 9 Total 298 85 169 32 13 24 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.28 Modal Split By Place of Study – PM Peak

Total Two-way People Trips

Place of Study PM Car Bus Train Car Peak Passenger Glasgow 106 4 87 11 4 Inverclyde 32 11 19 1 0 Renfrew 114 57 36 15 7 Total 253 72 143 27 11

T 3.29 Modal Split By Place of Study – Off Peak

Total Two-way People Trips

Place of Study Car Off Peak Bus Train Car Passenger Glasgow 54 2 44 6 2 Inverclyde 16 6 10 1 0 Renfrew 58 29 18 7 4 Total 128 36 72 14 6

3.43 The Transport Assessment provided forecasts of the additional peak hour demand for travel for a number of different groups of people – trips made by the resident population for travel to work and other purposes, trips to and from school, and trips generated by the employment element of the development. It also provided a distribution of trips and an assessment of mode share.

3.44 The combined residential, employment and student forecast bus trips through each of the six development stages for the AM peak, PM peak and off-peak periods are shown in Tables T3.30, T3.31 and T3.32.

Full Development Trip Patterns 3.45 At the completion of the development an additional 589 two-way bus trips are forecast in the AM peak period, an additional 457 two-way bus trips in the PM peak period and an additional 290 two-way bus trips during the off peak period. These figures should be regarded as potential public transport trips for a number of reasons:

? There are no direct bus links westwards from Bishopton to Port Glasgow, Greenock and Gourock - their introduction would only duplicate the faster service available by rail. ? Demand for movement to some destinations is small scale and would not support a financially sustainable mainstream bus service. ? Locations such as Ayrshire and North and South Lanarkshire are a substantial distance away, demand is small scale and dispersed, and bus journey times and the number of interchanges needed make bus an inappropriate option.

3.46 The purpose of identifying potential demand for bus travel in peak periods is to inform the development of proposals for new or improved bus services to the proposed development and the existing village of Bishopton. Maximum bus occupancy will be experienced in peak periods with much lower levels of occupancy at other times of the day and week.

25 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.30 Combined Total Bus Trips AM Peak

Total Bus Trips (Residential, Student and Employment) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Location 2012- 2012- 2014- 2016- 2019- 2021- 2013 2013 2015 2018 2020 2022 Bishopton 0 0 0 0 0 0 Erskine Central 0 10 15 33 49 52 Erskine West 2 14 20 41 60 64 Glasgow Airport 0 3 4 6 8 9 St James 0 1 1 1 2 2 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 0 1 1 1 2 2 Linwood (East and West) 0 7 10 22 34 36 Houston/Bridge of Weir/ 0 8 13 28 43 Brookfield/Craigend/Langbank 45 Dumbartonshire / Argyle + 0 0 0 0 0 Clydebank 0 Shortroods 0 3 4 10 15 16 Paisley 0 5 7 15 22 24 Johnstone 0 2 3 6 9 9 Glasgow 1 8 12 24 35 38 Port Glasgow plus part 0 1 1 3 5 Inverclyde 5 Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead 0 2 2 5 8 8 Remainder of Inverclyde 0 9 14 31 46 49 Total 3 74 107 226 338 353

Mitigated Travel Demand 3.47 The forecast travel demand shown in Tables T3.30, T3.31 and T3.32 are based on assumptions derived from existing mode shares. The Transport Assessment identified a number of transport interventions intended to make the more sustainable travel modes relatively more attractive and to make use of the car relatively less attractive.

3.48 The approach adopted in the Transport Assessment was to make a further assessment of modal split based on the anticipated impact of the proposed transport interventions. Tables T3.33 and T3.34 show existing and proposed mode shares for journeys falling within three distance bands from Bishopton. These were then applied to the residential element of demand to give a revised trip profile.

3.49 The impact of the revised mode share has been carried forward to provide the revised numbers and distribution of bus trips in each phase of the proposed development shown in Tables T3.35, T3.36 and T3.37.

26 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.31 Combined Total Bus Trips PM Peak

Total Bus Trips (Residential, Student and Employment) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Location 2012- 2012- 2014- 2016- 2019- 2021- 2013 2013 2015 2018 2020 2022 Bishopton 0 0 0 0 0 0 Erskine Central 0 8 11 26 39 41 Erskine West 2 11 16 33 48 51 Glasgow Airport 1 3 4 6 7 8 St James 0 1 1 1 2 2 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 0 1 1 1 2 2 Linwood (East and West) 0 5 8 18 27 28 Houston/Bridge of Weir/ 0 7 10 22 34 35 Brookfield/Craigend/Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle + 0 0 0 0 0 0 Clydebank Shortroods 0 2 3 8 12 12 Paisley 0 4 5 12 18 19 Johnstone 0 1 2 4 7 7 Glasgow 1 7 9 19 28 30 Port Glasgow plus part 0 1 1 2 4 4 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead 0 1 2 4 6 6 Remainder of Inverclyde 0 7 11 24 37 39 Total 4 59 84 180 271 284

27 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 3.32 Combined Total Bus Trips Off Peak

Total Bus Trips (Residential, Student and Employment) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Location 2012- 2012- 2014- 2016- 2019- 2021- 2013 2013 2015 2018 2020 2022 Bishopton 0 0 0 0 0 2 Erskine Central 0 4 6 14 20 22 Erskine West 1 5 8 16 23 26 Glasgow Airport 0 1 1 2 2 2 St James 0 0 0 0 0 0 Erskine SEast and Inchinnan 0 0 0 0 0 0 Linwood (East and West) 0 3 4 9 14 15 Houston/Bridge of Weir/ 0 4 5 12 18 20 Brookfield/Craigend/Langbank Dumbartonshire / Argyle + 0 0 0 0 0 0 Clydebank Shortroods 0 1 2 4 6 7 Paisley 0 2 3 6 9 10 Johnstone 0 1 1 2 4 4 Glasgow 1 3 4 9 14 15 Port Glasgow plus part 0 0 1 1 2 2 Inverclyde Kilmalcolm 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renfrew / Braehead 0 1 1 2 3 3 Remainder of Inverclyde 0 4 6 13 19 21 Total 2 29 42 90 134 149

28 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

4 Providing Access by Public Transport

Bus Services - Key Requirements 4.1 Bus is very much the minority form of public transport in Bishopton. At the time of undertaking the detailed assessment in this report, the only commercial bus service was the peak period journey to Glasgow via Renfrew operated by Arriva. Existing local Services 520/521 appear lightly used and are dependent upon financial support from SPT. Two factors dictate the need to improve and extend the provision of bus services in Bishopton – the need to penetrate the development to ensure that all new development is within walking distance of a bus stop and the need for a step change in provision to cater for the additional demand generated by the proposed development.

4.2 Consideration of the potential additional demand for bus travel identified in Tables T3.30, T3.31 and T3.32 indicates a need to consider provision of the following links by the time that the development is completed:

? A local peak and inter-peak period service connecting housing, shops and facilities in the existing village of Bishopton and in the proposed development site. ? A peak and inter-peak service connecting the existing village and the proposed development with Erskine. ? Links with Renfrew, Braehead Shopping Centre and Glasgow city centre at peak and off-peak times. ? Peak period links for travel to work to Bishopton from communities to the south including Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir.

4.3 Consideration of Tables T3.30, T3.31 and T3.32 also reveals three key issues:

? The scale of demand for some of the movements (e.g. between Bishopton and Kilmacolm or Glasgow Airport) is small and will not justify the provision of a public transport service. ? Provision of bus services to cater for some of the movements (e.g. between Bishopton and Paisley, Port Glasgow, Greenock and Gourock) is not necessary as rail already provides the link. ? As demand is heaviest in the morning peak period, proposals for new or improved bus services must be able to cater for demand at this time.

4.4 The approach adopted in developing proposals to provide new or improved bus services to cater for demand generated by the new development is, firstly, to consider the bus network needed when the development is completed and, secondly, to consider how that network can be built up to match demand during the six phases of development.

4.5 Given the length of the development programme, there is a need to ensure that proposed new or improved services are as financially sustainable as possible on completion of the development and during individual phases of development. The objective is therefore to build up the network of bus services incrementally to provide the links that are needed at each stage of development with the minimum necessary financial support.

Bus Network Proposals 4.6 The proposals for an extended bus network to serve the existing village of Bishopton and the Royal Ordnance development site when completed are summarised below and illustrated on Figure F4.1:

? Extend the existing local services connecting Bishopton with Erskine to serve the new development. At off-peak times this would provide connections with Arriva Service 23 at the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine to cater for travel to

29 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Renfrew, Braehead Shopping Centre and places between Braehead and Glasgow city centre.

30 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

F4.1 Proposed Bus Services on Completion of Development

31 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

? Provide more peak period journeys to/from Renfrew and Glasgow by extending existing journeys on Arriva Service 23 to cover the section of route between Bishopton and Bargarran (Erskine). ? Provide a weekday peak period bus link to the employment in Bishopton from communities in the Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir areas.

4.7 Illustrative timetable information on the proposed services is provided in Appendix D. Proposals for the bus network on completion of each of the six phases of development are shown on a series of figures in Appendix E.

Demand, Revenue and Operating Costs 4.8 Tables T3.30, T3.31 and T3.32 show potential demand for bus travel at peak periods and in the inter-peak generated by the development at the conclusion of each of the six phases of development. It should be noted that the trip distribution agreed with consultants acting on behalf of the Scottish Executive shows negligible internal movement by bus in Bishopton and very little travel by bus between Bishoton, Braehead and Renfrew. Hence, the figures used in determining the financial performance of proposed new or improved bus services to the proposed development could understate demand.

4.9 A spreadsheet model has been used to provide forecasts of revenue and estimates of operating costs for each of the three proposals described in the previous paragraph on completion of each of the six phases of development. All figures quoted in this report are at current prices and no allowance is made for future cost inflation or future fares increases.

4.10 The model provides estimates of annual operating costs for each of the proposed new or improved bus services based on assumptions about the type of bus used (e.g. midibus, single deck bus, double deck bus); the method of bus procurement (i.e. it has been assumed that buses are acquired under lease rather than through capital purchase); and the number of bus hours and bus kilometres operated on each service during each week.

4.11 Revenue is predicted on the basis of a fare per passenger kilometre assumed to be £0.15.

4.12 As part of the modelling process, it was necessary to decide the percentage of demand for travel between Bishopton and each of the places identified in Tables T3.30, T3.31 and T3.32 that would be allocated to each of the proposed new or improved bus services. Some of the places listed were not served at all for the reasons given in paragraph 4.3; parts of some of the communities served lay beyond walking distance of the proposed bus route; and some places were served by two services at particular times of day.

4.13 The principles used in allocating potential demand to services in the model are shown in Table T4.1.

Services Linking Bishopton and Erskine 4.14 Table T4.2 shows additional AM peak and inter-peak demand for the Bishopton Local Service and the Bishopton – Erskine service on completion of each phase of development. It should be noted that the trip distribution agreed with consultants acting on behalf of the Scottish Executive results in virtually no new internal bus travel in Bishopton – yet it is a requirement of SPT to provide a service to meet such demand.

4.15 In Phase 1 development takes place on sites that are easily accessible on foot from Greenock Road. The development is relatively small in scale and the generated additional demand for bus travel is small. It is therefore proposed that Services 520/521 continue to operate in their present form for the duration of Phase 1.

4.16 Although development in Phase 2 extends sufficiently further away from existing bus services on Greenock Road and Station Road to warrant the provision of a bus service into the development site, the scale of demand for bus travel remains relatively small. 32 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

T 4.1 Allocation of Demand to Bus Services

Location Allocation to Service 50% each to Bishopton Town Service and Bishopton – Erskine Bishopton service. Erskine Central 100% to Bishopton – Erskine service. 50% to Bishopton – Erskine service. Remainder of area beyond Erskine West walk distance. Glasgow Airport No allocation – demand too small to justify provision. St James 50% to Bishopton – Erskine service throughout day. 50% to Erskine SEast and Inchinnan Service 23 in peak periods only. Linwood (East and West) Houston/Bridge of Weir/ 50% to Bridge of Weir service in peak periods only. Brookfield/Craigend/Langbank No allocation – demand too dispersed over a wide area to justify Dumbartonshire / Argyle + Clydebank provision. Shortroods No allocation – demand too small to justify provision. Paisley Train or bus/rail options available – no provision made. Johnstone 50% to Bridge of Weir service in peak periods only. 50% allocated to extended Service 23 at peak periods. 50% assumed to interchange between Bishopton – Erskine service and Glasgow Service 23 in the inter-peak (to represent the deterrent effect of interchange). Port Glasgow plus part Inverclyde Train or bus/rail options available – no provision made. Kilmalcolm No allocation – demand too small to justify provision. 75% allocated to extended Service 23 at peak periods. 50% assumed to interchange between Bishopton – Erskine service and Renfrew / Braehead Service 23 in the inter-peak (to represent the deterrent effect of interchange). Remainder of Inverclyde No allocation – demand too small to justify provision. Central (1% total) North Lanarkshire No allocation – demand too small to justify provision, bus travel time South Lanarkshire too great. Ayrshire Greenock and Gourock Train or bus/rail options available – no provision made.

T 4.2 Additional Demand – Bishopton and Bishopton – Erskine Services

Number of Passenger Journeys (Single Trips)

Phase of Development AM Peak Day Phase 1 (2009-2011) 1 2 Phase 2 (2012-2013) 17 38 Phase 3 (2014-2015) 25 56 Phase 4 (2016-2018) 54 125 Phase 5 (2019-2020) 80 185 Phase 6 (2021-2022) 85 200

4.17 The solution proposed for Phase 2 is to use the one bus that operates Services 520/521 more efficiently and extend Local Service 520 into the new development and revise the timetable for Service 521 Bishopton – Erskine. The logic is that transfer of layover time from Bishopton to Erskine will enable passengers from the new development to travel to Erskine without the need to wait at the existing bus turning circle at the station. The new 33 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

bus turning circle to the south west of the station would need to be available for use to enable this change to be implemented.

4.18 In Phase 3 the expansion of the developed area and the growth of demand is sufficient to warrant replacement of Services 520/521 by three new services – numbered B, C and D for the purposes of this study:

? Service A would follow the full length of the existing Service 521 route between Erskine town centre (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) and Bishopton Station terminating at the existing bus turning circle ? Service B would follow the route of existing Service 521 between Erskine town centre and the junction of the A8 and B815 in Bishopton. It would then continue to a new bus turning circle on the west side of Bishopton Station via the north west access road, the proposed new housing and employment areas and the community facilities. ? Service C would follow the existing route of Service 520 between Bishopton Station and Kingswood Road before continuing to a new bus turning circle on the south side of Bishopton Station via the same route as Service B.

4.19 The three services would be linked so that a bus would depart from Erskine on Service A or B, operate Service C in Bishopton and return to Erskine on Service B or A. Two buses would be needed to operate an hourly service in each direction on the circuit in daytime on weekdays – combining to give a headway of 30 minutes between Erskine and Old Greenock Road in Bishopton. A need would remain for some peak period journeys to operate via the B815 in order to provide a service to the Hewlett Packard factory.

4.20 These services would meet demand for peak period travel within Bishopton and between Bishopton, Erskine, Linburn, Barrhill, parts of Inchinnan and the Bridgewater Shopping Centre. Services A and B would also cater for bus users interchanging in Erskine to continue their journeys to or from Inchinnan Business Park and Paisley at peak and off- peak periods. At inter-peak times connections would be available with frequent Arriva Service 23 for travel onwards to Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow.

4.21 The new service pattern introduced in Phase 3 will not be altered substantially in Phases 4, 5 and 6 of the development. The level of service will remain unchanged but there will need to be alterations to the route followed by Services B and C through the development site as new areas of housing and employment are completed.

Services to Glasgow 4.22 Links that were formerly provided by Arriva Service 27 will need to be restored in order to connect Bishopton village and the new development with Erskine, Inchinnan, Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow city centre. This service will also be able cater for some of the demand for travel to the employment development at Bishopton. At present there is one morning peak period journey on Service 23 from Bishopton to Glasgow via Erskine, Renfrew and Braehead, and a corresponding return journey in the evening peak. The proposal to improve links to Renfrew, Braehead and places on the way to Glasgow city centre is as follows:

? Extend the existing morning and evening peak journeys on Service 23 to start and finish in the proposed development site ? Extend one additional morning peak period journey that starts at Bargarran (Erskine) and one evening peak period journey that terminates at Bargarran to cover the section of route between Bargarran and Bishopton. ? At off-peak times, rely on interchange at the Bridgewater Shopping Centre at Erskine between existing Services 520/521 (or their successor Services A and B) and frequent Service 23 to Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow for people travelling to or from places beyond Erskine.

34 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

4.23 This proposal should be feasible at marginal cost as some of the buses operating Service 23 appear to enter service at Bargarran in the morning peak period and run back to depot after terminating at Bargarran in the evening peak. No additional buses would be required to operate the extra journeys between Bargarran and Bishopton – the only extra costs would be those related to the time taken and distance covered by the extended journeys.

4.24 The proposal has the additional attraction that the number of journeys operated can be increased in line with demand. Table T4.3 shows that forecast demand is negligible in Phase 1 of the development but does grow as development proceeds.

T 4.3 Additional Demand – Service 23 Bishopton – Erskine - Glasgow

Number of Passenger Journeys (Single Trips)

Phase of Development AM Peak Day Phase 1 (2009-2011) 1 0 Phase 2 (2012-2013) 5 9 Phase 3 (2014-2015) 8 14 Phase 4 (2016-2018) 18 31 Phase 5 (2019-2020) 25 45 Phase 6 (2021-2022) 26 47

Other Proposals 4.25 The assessment of potential demand illustrated in Tables T3.29, T3.30 and T3.31 showed a demand for a link between Bishopton and communities to the south to cater for travel to work in the employment areas in the proposed development. Table T4.4 quantifies that demand using the principles outlined in Table T4.1.

T 4.4 Additional Demand – Linwood, Houston, Bridge of Weir

Number of Passenger Journeys (Single Trips)

Phase of Development AM Peak Day Phase 1 (2009-2011) 0 0 Phase 2 (2012-2013) 8 15 Phase 3 (2014-2015) 12 22 Phase 4 (2016-2018) 28 50 Phase 5 (2019-2020) 42 75 Phase 6 (2021-2022) 45 81

4.26 Potential demand for public transport to Bishopton from the Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir areas is modest in Phase 1, 2 and 3 of the development, but becomes more substantial in Phases 4 and 5 as the majority of employment development takes place.

4.27 It is proposed to provide a new service from Bridge of Weir to Bishopton via Houston, Linwood and Inchinnan Business Park during Phase 4 of the Bishopton development. In Phase 4, demand is sufficient to justify only one morning peak period journey to Bishopton and an evening return journey. In Phases 5 and 6 additional peak period journeys are proposed to cater for the increasing numbers and the different start times likely to be required by different employers on the site.

35 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Financial Assessment 4.28 Table T4.5 provides a summary of the expected financial performance of the proposed services at the end of each phase of development. Phase 1 is not included in the table as no changes to bus services are proposed in the first phase of development.

T 4.5 Financial Performance of Enhanced Bus Services

Enhanced Services Enhanced New Bridge of Services Weir Service 520/521 A/B/C Service 23

Annual cost (£’000) 24.7 --- 10.3 --- Phase 2 (2012-2013) Annual revenue (£’000) 4.4 --- 5.5 --- Profit/(loss) (£’000) (20.3) --- (4.8) --- Annual cost (£’000) --- 63.9 25.0 --- Phase 3 Annual revenue (£’000) --- 8.3 8.0 --- (2014-2015) Profit/(loss) (£’000) --- (55.6) (17.0) --- Annual cost (£’000) --- 63.9 25.0 32.7 Phase 4 Annual revenue (£’000) --- 17.5 16.4 15.5 (2016-2018) Profit/(loss) (£’000) --- (46.4) (8.6) (17.2) Annual cost (£’000) --- 63.9 25.0 42.1 Phase 5 Annual revenue (£’000) --- 26.0 24.1 23.5 (2019-2020) Profit/(loss) (£’000) --- (37.9) (0.9) (18.6) Annual cost (£’000) --- 63.9 25.0 42.1 Phase 6 Annual revenue (£’000) --- 28.0 25.8 24.8 (2021-2022) Profit/(loss) (£’000) --- (35.9) 0.8 (17.3)

4.29 The Bishopton Local Service (520) and the service linking Bishopton with Erskine (521) currently requires financial support from SPT. The base position adopted in this study is therefore to ensure that SPT does not need to increase the amount of its subsidy as a consequence of the proposed development. The analysis undertaken in this report identifies the additional operating costs and revenues associated with extending and enhancing these services to meet the needs of people living in the new development.

4.30 Discussion with SPT in March 2005 indicated that it may be expected that the development would also have to bear the cost of the subsidy needed for the continued operation of existing Services 520/521. Quantification of existing patronage and contract costs for the two services have not yet been provided by SPT. Until this information is made available, it continues to be assumed that the developer will be responsible only for funding the difference between the additional cost of and the additional revenue from the additional services to the proposed development.

4.31 The analysis presented in Table T4.5 suggests that the additional operating costs of the enhanced service will exceed revenue generated from demand from the new development during the whole of the development period. It also indicates that the service will not be financially self-sustaining on completion of the development. However, the financial performance of the service would be improved if demand emerges for local bus travel within Bishopton.

4.32 The provision of additional peak period journeys to and from Bishopton on Service 23 is achieved at marginal cost (i.e. “wheelturn” costs arising from additional mileage with no requirement for additional buses). Additional costs exceed additional revenue until the end of the development programme, but the service will be financially sustainable thereafter. Eventually, the additional development-related revenue will strengthen the financial performance of this commercial service operated by Arriva. 36 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

4.33 The proposed new service providing access to employment in Bishopton from Bridge of Weir, Houston and Linwood requires a modest level of on-going subsidy at the conclusion of the Bishopton development. The forecast does not take account of any demand that may develop as a result of new links that the service would provide to Inchinnan Industrial Estate.

4.34 Table T4.5 illustrates financial performance at the end of each phase of development. Demand, and therefore revenue, will build up to the forecast level during each individual phase. A further calculation is necessary in order to provide an estimate of the financial support needed for each service during each phase of development. An even (straight line) rate of growth of patronage and revenue is assumed.

4.35 Bus operating costs do not increase in the same way. The full cost of each service enhancement is incurred from the date of implementation. Costs therefore increase as a series of steps. Enhancements to bus services need to be introduced at an early stage in each phase of development in order to influence travel behaviour at a formative stage before travel patterns and mode choices become fixed.

4.36 Table T4.6 provides a breakdown of the support needed for each bus service during each phase of development. It also provides an indication of the total funding needed to support bus services during the development period.

T 4.6 Financial Support for Enhanced Bus Services

Total Enhanced Services Enhanced New Bridge Services of Weir 520/521 A/B/C Service 23 Service

Total expenditure (£’000) 49.4 --- 20.6 ------Phase 2 (2012-2013) Total revenue (£’000) 4.4 --- 4.8 ------Revenue support (£’000) 45.0 --- 15.8 --- 60.8 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 127.8 50.0 ------Phase 3 Total revenue (£’000) --- 12.7 12.8 ------(2014-2015) Revenue support (£’000) --- 115.1 37.2 --- 152.3 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 191.7 75.0 98.1 --- Phase 4 Total revenue (£’000) --- 45.3 36.6 23.2 --- (2016-2018) Revenue support (£’000) --- 146.4 38.4 74.9 259.7 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 127.8 50.0 84.2 --- Phase 5 Total revenue (£’000) --- 43.5 48.2 39.0 --- (2019-2020) Revenue support (£’000) --- 84.3 1.8 45.2 131.3 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 127.8 50.0 84.2 --- Phase 6 Total revenue (£’000) --- 54.0 49.9 48.3 --- (2021-2022) Revenue support (£’000) --- 73.8 0.1 35.9 109.8 Total support needed (£’000) 45.0 419.6 93.3 156.0 713.9

4.37 Implementation of all four services would require total financial support of £714,000 (current prices) over the construction period. This excludes both the possible extra cost of taking over responsibility for the operating deficit of existing Services 520/521 from SPT and the probable impact of local bus travel within Bishopton.

Proposals – Rail Park and Ride Background 4.38 The development proposals for the Royal Ordnance site will result in an increasing demand for rail park and ride at Bishopton Station over time as house-building takes place provided that additional parking provision is made at the station. Demand will not reach a 37 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

maximum until the planned completion of development in 2022/23. It has already been shown (in Chapter 2) that existing parking facilities at the station are well-used although not at capacity. There is also on-street parking in surrounding streets.

4.39 There is not sufficient space available on the east side of the railway to allow expansion of the existing car park. In 2006 a new surfaced car park was provided on an area of land on the west side of the railway that formerly served as a car park for Royal Ordnance. This provided the extra car parking capacity needed to remove some of the on-street parking by rail users on Station Road and adjoining streets. In a further expanded form it would also, in due course, cater for new demand generated by the proposed development.

4.40 The benefit of providing further additional car-parking on the west side of the railway is that it enables residents of the proposed new housing development to drive to the station without placing additional traffic on the A8 Greenock Road or Station Road. It would be necessary to utilise the existing low and narrow bridge under the railway to allow car drivers unable to find a parking space in the existing car park to access the proposed new car park. A variable message sign and counting system could be used to inform motorists when the existing car park is full in order to avoid motorists circulating around it seeking a vacant parking space.

4.41 Pedestrian priorities would need to be reconciled with limited car access to enable the bridge arch to be shared by a footway of sufficient width to accommodate a wheelchair in order to allow users of both car parks to access both platforms. Ramps of an appropriate gradient with offsets and changes of direction compliant with guidance given in Railway Group Standards and Railway Safety Principles and Guidance will be needed to ensure that both platforms are accessible.

Demand 4.42 The method used to forecast potential additional park and ride demand is based on factoring the parking demand generated by the existing population of Bishopton by the percentage increase in village population resulting from the development.

4.43 The existing population of Bishopton is approximately 5,150 (source: Renfrewshire Council Census 2001 Profile, Settlement 01 – Bishopton updated to July 2004). The proposal for 2,500 new houses on the former Royal Ordnance site would have a population of 6,802 if average household size is assumed to be 2.72. The development would therefore increase the population of Bishopton by 132%. If it is assumed that the number of car drivers parking their cars at the station as a result of development of the Royal Ordnance site will increase in proportion to the increase in population, the number of cars parked at the station by residents of Bishopton would increase by 90 vehicles.

4.44 If it is then assumed that there is no growth in demand for rail park and ride from Bishopton amongst residents of Erskine and other communities further away, demand for parking at the station would increase from 170-200 to 260-90. The existing car parks currently have a combined capacity of 200 spaces after elimination of parking inside the existing bus turning circle. The minimum size requirements for a new car park on the south side of the railway is therefore expected to be 170 spaces (i.e. currently 80 and expanded by a further 90 spaces).

4.45 There is a possibility that, if the current capacity constraint on parking at Bishopton is eased, some latent demand may emerge. This is not possible to quantify easily and with any degree of accuracy. Hence, it is recommended that the minimum size of the extended car park at Bishopton Station should perhaps be considered to be 200 spaces including an appropriate allocation of spaces suitable for use by drivers holding blue badges.

4.46 It is good practice, when developing any park and ride site, to ensure the availability of land for future expansion. It is suggested that sufficient land to accommodate an 38 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

additional 100 parking spaces be set aside for possible future expansion of the car park beyond the scale outlined above.

4.47 These recommendations are based on a continuation of the present level of rail park and ride by residents of the expanded Bishopton. Positive measures to increase the share of travel demand accounted for by public transport may necessitate additional parking provision at the station as rail is likely to continue to be much more important than bus in meeting demand for travel by public transport in Bishopton. The better integration of bus and rail at the station would also provide improved opportunity for rail-bus interchange.

Park & Ride Design Statement Existing Situation 4.48 The Transport Interchange is a major focus for both the existing and proposed expanded village of Bishopton. The station has provided local people with an excellent rail service to Paisley and Glasgow for many years. Together with a bank, Post Office, local shops and surrounding housing, it is the traditional hub of the village.

4.49 The main entrance to the site is directly adjacent to the station, and has provided the only non-rail access for all people, goods and materials for the past seventy years. Although the bridge under the railway, and the approach roads to it, are below modern highway design standards, there is no realistic prospect of significant geometric improvements, except by better management.

4.50 There is a well-established and well-used park and ride facility immediately to the south- east of the station. This accommodates around 125 cars. There is also a small bus terminal, served by a regular local bus service. On the other side of the railway line there is a further formal car-park of 80 spaces that currently has no bus access.

4.51 Although the station has had modest improvements over the years, the general environment around the existing interchange is poor. Pedestrian access is also well below modern standards.

Proposals 4.52 Road access to the expanded village will be via new northern and southern link roads. The existing road access beneath the railway will provide a direct, convenient link between the existing village hub and the extended park and ride, for vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists.

4.53 It is proposed to make this link into a single carriageway, controlled by traffic lights or designed to provide an appropriate pedestrian-vehicle shared space (Figure F4.2). As well as reducing speeds and increasing traffic safety, this allows a safe pedestrian route to be provided beneath the bridge. This arrangement has the advantage of restricting the amount of traffic movement on Station Road, and creating a general traffic calmed environment in which pedestrian movement is both safer and more convenient. Similar single lane access arrangements to traditional urban centres work well, such as at Durham and Alnwick which are both much larger centres than Bishopton.

4.54 This approach is extended by creating a traffic-calmed, shared surface treatment public square at the junctions of Station Road, Poplar Avenue and Glenstone Road, extending to the station itself. This will reinforce and improve the existing ‘hub’ of local services. These environmental improvements will also make the approach to the station more attractive and could be combined with small-scale improvements to information and waiting facilities at the station. Figure F 4.2 shows the proposals in illustrative form.

4.55 The existing bus terminal and park and ride car park would be given a facelift, and pedestrian ramps and steps created or improved. Existing unkempt planted areas will be improved. 39 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

4.56 Station Road itself will remain much as it is at present, but with more clearly defined parking and passing places.

4.57 Having passed through the managed space under the railway bridge but prior to entering the new development area, and to the south of the road, a new park and ride car park and bus terminal are proposed (Figure F4.3).This mirrors the facilities on the other side of the railway line, and is the most convenient location for access to the station. Subject to the appropriate stakeholder agreements, the car park would be able to accommodate up to around 300 spaces, which can be built in phases as demand builds up.

Impact on Rail Patronage 4.58 The critical area is the ability of the rail service to accommodate the number of additional passengers travelling from Bishopton towards Glasgow in the AM peak period. Homeward journeys in the PM peak are less critical as they are spread over a wider time period and train capacity is not an issue at off-peak times. It is understood from discussion with SPT that train capacity is a matter of concern on the section of line between Paisley and Glasgow Central.

4.59 It is estimated that the proposed development, when complete, will generate less than 200 additional morning peak period rail trips from Bishopton to destination stations east of Paisley. Given the anticipated impact of GARL and Glasgow Crossrail on train capacity between Paisley and Glasgow, it should be possible to accommodate the additional development-related demand within the existing level of service.

40 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

F 4.2 Illustrative layout of the Station Road Corridor

41 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

F 4.3 Public Transport Interchange Arrangement

42 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

5 Summary and Conclusions

Existing Public Transport Services 5.1 Bishopton is an intermediate station on the electrified Inverclyde Line linking Gourock and Wemyss Bay with Paisley and Glasgow Central. In daytime on weekdays and Saturdays Bishopton is served by three trains an hour in each direction between Glasgow Central and Gourock and a fourth between Glasgow and Wemyss Bay. Bishopton Station is staffed and has a large car park with 117 parking spaces including five designated for parking by disabled drivers. There is a second area of parking on the east side of the station forecourt that takes total public provision to 136 spaces on the north side of the railway, and a more recent additional 80 spaces have been create in a formal car-park on BAE land to the south of the railway.

5.2 There are issues of capacity on the Inverclyde Line – a high level of occupancy of trains and line capacity constraints between Paisley and Glasgow Central. Opening of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link (GARL) is expected to take place during 2010/11 and will deliver an additional platform at Glasgow Central Station and an additional track between Glasgow Central and Paisley. The Glasgow Crossrail project, a longer-term project, would reduce pressure on platform capacity at Glasgow Central Station as a result of the diversion of some services away from the station. The timescale of the proposed development at Bishopton will allow the impact of GARL and Crossrail to release capacity in time to absorb increased demand for rail travel arising from the development. It should also be noted that over the period of the development’s implementation other improvements involving stations and rolling stock are likely to occur in response to changing demands across the rail network.

5.3 There are bus/rail interchange facilities at Bishopton in the form of a bus turning circle and bus stance with passenger shelter on the north side of the railway at the entrance to the main station car park. There is a limited network of local bus services providing little more than a local distributor service and a link to Erskine. SPT provides financial support for two local bus services operated by Slaemuir Coaches in daytime on Mondays to Saturdays using a single accessible vehicle. The two services both operate hourly – Service 520 is the Bishopton Local Service and Service 521 provides a link to the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine. In addition, Arriva Service 23 provides a peak period link to Renfrew and Glasgow for journey-to-work.

Forecasting 5.4 Information from a variety of sources including the Transport Assessment has been brought together to quantify the potential market for public transport in order to provide a basis for development of financially sustainable proposals for providing new or extended bus services. The information has been used in a spreadsheet model for use in forecasting demand and revenue for proposed new bus services. The spreadsheet model also provides the mechanism for providing estimates of the additional operating costs of proposed bus services.

5.5 It should be noted that the trip distribution and mode share have been agreed with consultants acting on behalf of the Scottish Executive. This resulted in virtually no bus journeys made wholly within Bishopton – a demand that SPT suggests will need to be met. This is likely to result in an understatement of demand, revenue and financial performance.

5.6 The spreadsheet model identified potential demand for travel by bus between Bishopton and a number of places in the immediate locality and further afield. This information was used to inform the development of proposals for new or improved bus services. Three constraints were applied:

43 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

? There are no direct bus links westwards from Bishopton to Port Glasgow, Greenock and Gourock - their introduction would only duplicate the faster service available by rail. ? Demand for movement to some destinations is small scale and would not support a financially sustainable mainstream bus service. ? Locations such as Ayrshire and North and South Lanarkshire are a substantial distance away, demand is small scale and dispersed, and bus journey times and the number of interchanges needed make bus an inappropriate option.

5.7 Assessment of this potential additional demand for bus travel indicated a need to consider provision of the following links by the time that the development is completed:

? A local peak and inter-peak period service connecting housing, shops and facilities in the existing village of Bishopton and in the proposed development site. ? A peak and inter-peak service connecting the existing village and the proposed development with Erskine. ? Links with Renfrew, Braehead Shopping Centre and Glasgow city centre at peak and off-peak times. ? Peak period links for travel to work to Bishopton from communities to the south including Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir.

5.8 The following proposals were developed for an extended bus network:

? Extend the existing local services connecting Bishopton with Erskine to serve the new development. At off-peak times this would provide connections with Arriva Service 23 at the Bridgewater Shopping Centre in Erskine to cater for travel to Renfrew, Braehead Shopping Centre and places between Braehead and Glasgow city centre. ? Provide more peak period journeys to/from Renfrew and Glasgow by extending existing journeys on Arriva Service 23 to cover the section of route between Bishopton and Bargarran (Erskine). ? Provide a weekday peak period bus link to the employment in Bishopton from communities in the Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir areas.

5.9 An assessment of the output of the spreadsheet model revealed the following:

? The Bishopton Local Service (520) and the service linking Bishopton with Erskine (521) currently requires financial support from SPT. The base position is therefore to ensure that SPT does not need to increase its subsidy as a consequence of the proposed development. The analysis undertaken in this report suggests that the additional revenue generated from demand from the new development will not exceed the additional operating costs of the enhanced service at any stage of the development. There will be an on-going need for financial support after completion of the development unless some local bus travel emerges within Bishopton. ? The provision of additional peak period journeys to and from Bishopton on Service 23 is achieved at marginal cost. The losses that will result from service enhancement during the development will need to be underwritten. Thereafter, additional revenue exceeds additional costs and no further financial support is needed. ? The proposed new service providing access to employment in Bishopton from Bridge of Weir, Houston and Linwood is not predicted to perform well in financial terms and would require ongoing financial support.

5.10 Table T5.1 provides a summary of the extent of financial support needed for the proposed new or improved bus services. It excludes any revenue derived from local bus travel within Bishopton. It also does not take account of the SPT suggestion that the developer should take responsibility for continuing the financial support currently provided for Services 520/521 (as yet not quantified by SPT). 44 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Rail Park and Ride 5.11 The development proposals for the Royal Ordnance site will result in an increasing demand for rail park and ride at Bishopton Station over time as house-building takes place. Existing parking facilities at the station are insufficient to cater for existing demand. There is not sufficient space available on the north side of the railway to allow expansion of the existing car park. There is scope to provide a further extension of the car-park on an area of land on the south side of the railway that formerly served as a car park for Royal Ordnance and now provides some 80 spaces following an upgrade in 2006 in response to a request by Renfrewshire Council to BAE. This further extension would provide the extra car parking capacity needed to reduce on-street parking by rail users on Station Road and adjoining streets. It would also cater for new demand generated by the proposed development.

T 5.1 Financial Support for Enhanced Bus Services

Total Enhanced Services Enhanced New Bridge Services of Weir 520/521 A/B/C Service 23 Service

Total expenditure (£’000) 49.4 --- 20.6 ------Phase 2 (2012-2013) Total revenue (£’000) 4.4 --- 4.8 ------Revenue support (£’000) 45.0 --- 15.8 --- 60.8 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 127.8 50.0 ------Phase 3 Total revenue (£’000) --- 12.7 12.8 ------(2014-2015) Revenue support (£’000) --- 115.1 37.2 --- 152.3 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 191.7 75.0 98.1 --- Phase 4 Total revenue (£’000) --- 45.3 36.6 23.2 --- (2016-2018) Revenue support (£’000) --- 146.4 38.4 74.9 259.7 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 127.8 50.0 84.2 --- Phase 5 Total revenue (£’000) --- 43.5 48.2 39.0 --- (2019-2020) Revenue support (£’000) --- 84.3 1.8 45.2 131.3 Total expenditure (£’000) --- 127.8 50.0 84.2 --- Phase 6 Total revenue (£’000) --- 54.0 49.9 48.3 --- (2021-2022) Revenue support (£’000) --- 73.8 0.1 35.9 109.8 Total support needed (£’000) 45.0 419.6 93.3 156.0 713.9

5.12 The benefit of providing a car park on the south side of the railway is that it enables residents of the proposed new housing development to drive to the station without placing additional traffic on the A8 Greenock Road or Station Road.

5.13 Overall parking provision at the station is recommended to be increased to around 350 spaces by completion of the development. The existing car parks have a combined capacity of 200 spaces after elimination of parking inside the existing bus turning circle. The minimum size of the additional car park area on the south side of the railway would therefore be 150 spaces including an appropriate allocation of spaces suitable for use by drivers holding blue badges.

5.14 There is a possibility that, if the current capacity constraint on parking at Bishopton is eased, some latent demand may emerge. This is not possible to quantify easily and with any degree of accuracy. Hence, it is recommended that consideration is given to providing further sufficient land to accommodate an additional 100 parking spaces for possible future expansion of the car park.

45 Project Number : B063017 Ref : Updated PT Study Report; September 2007

Appendix A Rail Station Interview Survey

Appendix A

CONSULTING Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton Bishopton Station Passenger Survey

How did you travel to the station? Car driver Car passenger Taxi Motorcycle/moped Bus Cycle Walk

Where did you start your journey? (postcode, street name, town or village name)

Where is your final destination? (place name)

What is the purpose of your journey? Work Education Shopping Personal business Recreation/leisure Other (provide details below)

How often do you make this journey? 5 + days per week 2-4 days per week 1 day per week Less than once per week

V:\DivB_2XXX\B063017 Bishopton PT Study\Survey\2005-1208 Bishopton Station Passenger Survey BISHOPTON RAIL STATION SURVEY – 20/12/05

Method of Travel Number Percentage (%) Car Driver 68 35 Car Passenger 25 12.5 Taxi 2 1 Motorcycle 0 0 Bus 5 2.5 Cycle 0 0 Walk 97 49 Total 197 100

Where do People Park Main Car Park 58 84 Station Forecourt 9 13 On street 2 3 Total 69 100

Journey Origin

Bishopton 140 71 Erskine 41 21 Dumbarton / Clydebank 2 1 Greenock 2 1 Dunoon 2 1 Glenburn 1 0.5 Langbank 2 1 Inchinnan 4 2 Houston 2 1 Wemys Bay 1 0.5 Total 197 100

Journey Destination Glasgow 139 71 Paisley 36 18 Greenock 10 5 Port Glasgow 1 0.5 Gourock 1 0.5 Largs 1 0.5 Hamilton 1 0.5 Edinburgh 4 2 Coatdyke (Airdrie) 1 0.5 Hillington 2 1 Motherwell 1 0.5 Total 197 100

Purpose of Journey Work 154 78 Education 13 7 Shopping 20 10 Personal Business 7 3.5 Recreation / Leisure 3 1.5 Total 197 100

How often is Journey Made 5 or more times per week 128 65 2-4 times per week 39 20 1 day per week 7 3 Less than once per week 23 12 Total 197 100

Appendix B Accessibility Mapping

Appendix B

Appendix C Travel to Work Maps

Appendix C

Appendix D Bus Timetable Information

Appendix D

Appendix D Outline Bus Timetables

Bishopton and Erskine Services Development Phase 2 Existing Services 520/521 are both operated hourly and both are operated by a single bus. In the early stages of development (Phase 2), existing Services 520/521 could be extended into the new development at a marginal cost as no extra vehicle would be required to operate the service. An illustrative timetable is shown below:

Place Minutes past each hour Service No. Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) 00 Bishopton Station (existing bus terminus) arr 18 Service No. Bishopton Station (existing bus terminus) dep 18 Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle) arr 28 Service No. Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle) arr 28 Bishopton Station (existing bus terminus) dep 38 Service No. Bishopton Station (existing bus terminus) arr 38 Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) 56

Development Phases 3-6 Three services are proposed to be operational from Phase 3 of the proposed development:

• Service A: Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) – Barrhill – Linburn – Old Greenock Road – Greenock Road - Bishopton Station (existing bus turning circle). • Service B: Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) – Barrhill – Linburn – Old Greenock Road – Royal Ordnance development - Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle). • Service C: Bishopton Station (existing bus turning circle) – Ferry Road – Kingston Road - Royal Ordnance development - Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle).

Illustrative examples of possible weekday peak and inter-peak period and Saturday daytime timetables showing the minutes past each hour when buses would operate are provided below – minor adjustment may be needed to provide better connections with Service 23 in Erskine and/or Inverclyde Line trains to/from Glasgow at Bishopton:

Place Minutes past each hour Monday-Friday Inter-peak, Saturday Daytime Service A B Erskine Bridgewater Shopping Centre) 00 30 Bishopton Station (existing bus turning circle) arr 18 --- Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle) arr --- 52 Service C C Bishopton Station (existing bus turning circle) dep 24 --- Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle) dep --- 54 Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle) arr 36 --- Bishopton Station (existing bus turning circle) arr --- 06 Service B A Bishopton Station (new bus turning circle) dep 38 --- Bishopton Station (existing bus turning circle) dep --- 12 Erskine Bridgewater Shopping Centre) arr 00 30

In this timetable, Services A, B and C are each operated hourly in each direction in daytime on Mondays to Saturdays. Services A and B combine to provide a half-hourly service on the common section of route between Old Greenock Road in Bishopton and the Bridgewater Shopping Centre at Erskine where onward connections to Renfrew and Braehead are available by interchange with frequent Service 23. The timetable for Services A, B and C requires the introduction of a second bus to operate the enhanced level of service.

Services to Renfrew, Braehead Shopping Centre and Glasgow Weekday peak period Bus links to/from Renfrew, Braehead and Glasgow in the weekday peak period can be delivered by building on the timetable for existing Arriva Services 23/23A Erskine (Bargarran) – Glasgow (Renfield Street). There is already one morning peak period journey that starts from Bishopton and one evening peak period journey that is extended from Bargarran to Bishopton. In the morning peak, it appears that buses enter service for the first time at Bargarran. It is therefore feasible for a small number of journeys to start at Bishopton instead of Bargarran without requiring the deployment of any extra buses. Similarly, in the evening peak period, it appears that some buses return to depot after arrival at Bargarran. It should therefore be feasible to extend a few journeys to Bishopton without requiring the deployment of any extra buses.

Proposals are outlined below – precise details will need to be discussed with Arriva:

AM peak period: • In Phases 2 and 3 of the development, the additional demand for travel to Renfrew and Braehead could be met by the existing journey (07:15 Bishopton - Glasgow) extended to serve the proposed new development giving an arrival time in Glasgow of 08:20. • At the start of Phase 4, an additional journey can be extended to start at Bishopton instead of Bargarran – an 07:34 departure from Bishopton would give an arrival time in Glasgow of 08:54.

PM peak period: • In Phases 2 and 3, the 17:10 Glasgow – Bishopton journey can be extended to arrive at Bishopton new bus turning circle at 18:25. • At the start of Phase 4, an additional journey departing Glasgow at 16:40 can be extended to terminate at Bishopton instead of Bargarran.

An illustrative timetable for Phase 4 is shown below to illustrate the principle:

Bishopton dep 07:10 07:34 ------Erskine (Bargarran) 07:30 07:54 ------Renfrew Cross 07:50 08:14 ------Braehead Shopping Centre --- 08:19 ------Glasgow arr 08:20 08:54 ------Glasgow dep ------16:40 17:10 Braehead Shopping Centre ------17:10 17:40 Renfrew Cross ------17:16 17:46 Erskine (Bargarran) ------17:31 18:01 Bishopton arr ------17:55 18:25

Weekday Inter-peak Period, Saturday Daytime There are two options at these times:

• The preferred option: Interchange between existing frequent Service 23 and new Services A and B at Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) would provide links from Bishopton to Renfrew Cross, Braehead Shopping Centre, the Southern General Hospital and Govan. • An alternative option: It would be possible to extend a Bishopton - Erskine journey on proposed Service B to Braehead Shopping Centre by introducing a third bus into the cycle. The timetable for this option is relatively inefficient as it gives layover time of 34 minutes at Braehead.

An illustrative example showing the minutes past each hour when an extended Service B would operate is provided below – the service could operate from 09:00 until 16:00 on weekdays with operation extended until 17:00 or 18:00 on Saturdays:

Minutes past each hour Bishopton (new bus turning circle) 30 Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) 52 Renfrew Cross 07 Braehead Shopping Centre arr 14 Braehead Shopping Centre dep 48 Renfrew Cross 55 Erskine (Bridgewater Shopping Centre) 12 Bishopton (new bus turning circle) 30

Service to Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir A new bus service is proposed linking Bishopton with Linwood, Houston and Bridge of Weir. The service is intended to cater for travel to and from work in Bishopton. It is proposed to use one bus to provide peak period journeys on weekdays. It may be that additional journeys could be necessary in the event of shift or Saturday working by a substantial employer in the new development at Bishopton. An illustrative outline timetable for Phases 5 and 6 using one bus is provided below:

Bridge of Weir dep 07:22 08:22 --- 16:42 17:42 Linwood 07:35 08:35 --- 16:57 17:57 Bishopton (new bus turning circle) arr 07:50 08:50 --- 17:10 18:10 Bishopton (new bus turning circle) dep 07:50 --- 16:10 17:10 18:10 Linwood 08:05 --- 16:25 17:25 18:25 Bridge of Weir arr 08:18 --- 16:38 17:38 18:38

Appendix E Phased Implementation of Bus Services

Appendix E

Appendix F Phase 1 Masterplan

Appendix F

CENTRUM HOUSE, 38 QUEEN STREET, GLASGOW G1 3DX T 0141 221 4030 F 0141 221 4050 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

CBC HOUSE, 24 CANNING STREET, EDINBURGH, EH3 8EG T 0131 272 2705 F 0131 272 2805 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

FLOOR 2, 66 QUEEN SQUARE, BRISTOL BS1 4J T 01179 876216 F 01179 876217 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

3RD FLOOR, CATHEDRAL BUILDINGS, DEAN STREET, NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE NE1 1PG T 0191 261 2261 F 0191 261 1122 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

SCOTTISH AMICABLE BUILDING, 11 DONEGALL SQUARE SOUTH, BELFAST BT1 5JE T 02890 434646 F 02890 434647 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

MINERVA HOUSE, EAST PARADE, LEEDS LS1 5PS T 0113 244 4347 F 0113 242 3753 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

BLACKFRIARS HOUSE, PARSONAGE, MANCHESTER M3 2JA T 0161 831 5600 F 0161 831 5601 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

CASTLE CHAMBERS, 43 CASTLE STREET, LIVERPOOL L2 9SH T 0151 231 6140 F 0151 231 6141 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

LATCHFORD HOUSE, SHENSTONE BUSINESS PARK,LYNN LANE, SHENSTONE, LICHFIELD, STAFFORDHSIRE WS14 0SB T 01543 444437 F 01543 444438 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

172 TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD, LONDON W1T 7NA T 020 7388 5331 F 020 7387 0078 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

THE LANTERNS, LANTERNS COURT, MILLHARBOUR, LONDON E14 9TU T 020 7515 5579 F 020 7538 2946 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

7TH FLOOR, TOWER POINT 44, NORTH ROAD, BRIGHTON BN1 1YR T 01273 666380 F 01273 666381 E [email protected] W www.jmp.co.uk

JMP Consultants Ltd, Registered Office: Centrum House, 38 Queen Street, Glasgow G1 3DX. Registered in Scotland No. 88006