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Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events Off the Western Great Lakes

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Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events Off the Western Great Lakes climate Article Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes Jake Wiley * and Andrew Mercer Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State University, 75 B. S. Hood Road, Starkville, MS 39762, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and ongoing research is beginning to focus on the large-scale environments conducive to LES. Synoptic-scale composites are constructed for Lake Michigan and Lake Superior LES events by employing an LES case repository for these regions within the U.S. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data for each LES event were used to construct synoptic maps of dominant LES patterns for each lake. These maps were formulated using a previously implemented composite technique that blends principal component analysis with a k-means cluster analysis. A sample case from each resulting cluster was also selected and simulated using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model to obtain an example mesoscale depiction of the LES environment. The study revealed four synoptic setups for Lake Michigan and three for Lake Superior whose primary differences were discrepancies in a surface pressure dipole structure previously linked with Great Lakes LES. These subtle synoptic-scale differences suggested that while overall LES impacts were driven more by the mesoscale conditions for these lakes, synoptic-scale conditions still provided important insight into the character of LES forcing mechanisms, primarily the steering flow and air–lake thermodynamics. Keywords: lake-effect; climatology; numerical weather prediction; synoptic; mesoscale; winter weather; Great Lakes; snow Citation: Wiley, J.; Mercer, A. Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes. Climate 2021, 9, 43. https://doi.org/ 1. Introduction 10.3390/cli9030043 The North American Great Lakes have multiple effects on the weather and climate of the neighboring landscape [1–5]. Climatologically, the lakes act as a modulator of annual Received: 18 February 2021 temperature due to their enormous heat capacity that ultimately results in warmer winters Accepted: 4 March 2021 Published: 5 March 2021 and cooler summers. During the North American cool season, synoptic-scale conditions often interact with air masses modified by the lakes to create bands of lake effect snow Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral (LES) near the shorelines of each lake. Previous work [6] offered the first comprehensive with regard to jurisdictional claims in examination on the atmospheric conditions conducive to LES formation and included published maps and institutional affil- characteristics such as: (1) presence of a strong polar air mass over lake surface, (2) large iations. thermal and moisture contrast between the lake surface and the atmosphere, and (3) large area of open fetch. On the extreme side, the destabilization of continental polar air masses traversing over the lakes via massive vertical heat and moisture fluxes result in severe lake- effect snow (LES) storms that produces copious amounts of winter precipitation downwind of the lakes [7–10]. This area downwind of the lakes affected by LES is known as the ‘snow Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. belt’ region as annual snowfall maps reveal that these elongated areas receive substantially This article is an open access article higher snowfall compared to areas more inland, with up to 50% of their annual snowfall distributed under the terms and coming from LES (Figure1). The unique shape of these snow belts is a consequence of the conditions of the Creative Commons elongation of snow bands that tend to form during LES events. Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// The mesoscale and local dynamics of LES have been studied thoroughly and are creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ generally well understood, though new field experiments such as the Ontario Winter Lake- 4.0/). effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign are providing additional insight on the influence of Climate 2021, 9, 43. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030043 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate Climate 2021, 9, 43 2 of 21 Climate 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 23 secondary LES factors such as land breeze circulations, frictional convergence, orographic uplift [11–17]. Lake Superior Lake Huron Lake Michigan Lake Ontario Lake Erie Figure 1.1. North American Great Lakes Snowbelt region highlightinghighlighting areasareas thatthat areare affectedaffected byby LESLES everyevery winter.winter. Image Image taken taken from from Dept. Dept. of Geographyof Geograph aty Hunter at Hunter College, College, City UniversityCity University of New of York.New York. LES is primarily driven by instability resulting from vertical thermal gradients between the lakeThe and mesoscale atmosphere, and local which dynamics frequently of LES results have in thebeen production studied thoroughly of convective and available are gen- potentialerally well energy understood, (CAPE) though [18]. Two new measures field expe thatriments have been such frequently as the Ontario used asWinter proxies Lake- for quantifyingeffect Systems this (OWLeS) instability field in the campaign context ofare LES: providing the surface-850 additional mb insight temperature on the difference influence andof secondary the presence/strength LES factors such of a low-levelas land breez cappinge circulations, inversion [8 frictional,9,13,19–21 convergence,]. An empirically oro- basedgraphic minimum uplift [11–17]. threshold for the surface-850 mb temperature difference of 13 ◦C has beenLES used is toprimarily establish driven a minimum by instability instability resulting threshold from for vertical lake-effect thermal convection. gradients The be- near-surfacetween the lake vertical and atmosphere, wind profile which (below frequently the capping results inversion) in the production also plays of a keyconvective role in LESavailable formation potential as it energy determines (CAPE) snow [18]. band Two morphology measures that and have dictates been the frequently amount used of lake as surfaceproxies (fetch)for quantifying air parcels this will instability interact with in th ase context they traverse of LES: the the lake, surface-850 and thus mb the tempera- amount ofture heat difference and moisture and the air parcelspresence/strength acquire [22 –of24 a]. low-level Several different capping types inversion of snow [8,9,13,19–21]. bands have beenAn empirically observed with based LES minimum activity includingthreshold long-lakefor the surface-850 axis parallel mb (LLAP), temperature broad difference coverage, shorelineof 13 °C has parallel, been used and to mesovorticies establish a minimum [8,9]. Moderate instability wind threshold speeds infor this lake-effect low-level convec- flow −1 regimetion. The (10–20 near-surface m s ) vertical have been wind shown profile to (below be the the most capping conducive inversion) to LES also formation plays a key as speedsrole in LES that formation are too fast as it result determines in disorganized snow band convection morphology due and to directionaldictates the shearamount and of speedslake surface that are (fetch) too slow air parcels limit turbulent will interact mixing with between as they the traverse atmosphere the lake, and and lake thus [10]. the amountThe of essential heat and local moisture and mesoscale air parcels ingredients acquire [22–24]. for LES Several formation different are well-known types of snow (de- scribedbands have above), been but observed the synoptic-scale with LES activity conditions including conducive long-lake to LES axis remains parallel a topic(LLAP), of continuingbroad coverage, research. shoreline Past studies parallel, have and identified mesovorticies a broad [8,9]. large-scale Moderate pattern wind speeds that, in in some this form,low-level is present flow regime during (10–20 most LESm s− events1) have offbeen the shown Great to Lakes. be the This most pattern conducive consists to ofLES a meanformation sea levelas speeds pressure that structureare too fast featuring result in an disorganized eastward cyclone convection and westwarddue to directional anticy- clone (i.e., dipole) and an upper-level low pressure system located close to the Hudson shear and speeds that are too slow limit turbulent mixing between the atmosphere and Bay (Figure2). The evolution of this broad scale pattern is unique as conditions typically lake [10]. associated with this setup are clear and calm. Initially, a cold front linked with a mid- The essential local and mesoscale ingredients for LES formation are well-known (de- latitude cyclone (typically an Alberta Clipper [25]) travels over the Great Lakes, which scribed above), but the synoptic-scale conditions conducive to LES remains a topic of con- results in a decrease in surface air temperatures and pressure rises. These pressure rises tinuing research. Past studies have identified a broad large-scale pattern that, in some bring in west-northwesterly flow that support LES formation. Differences in position and form, is present during most LES events off the Great Lakes. This pattern consists of a strength of this dipole structure are largely responsible for different snow band morpholo- mean sea level pressure structure featuring an eastward cyclone and westward anticy- gies [3,26,27]. Importantly, the ideal set up for maximum LES clearly is sensitive to the clone (i.e., dipole) and an upper-level
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