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Using Analogues to Simulate Intensity, Trajectory, and Dynamical Changes in Alberta Clippers with Global Climate Change

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Using Analogues to Simulate Intensity, Trajectory, and Dynamical Changes in Alberta Clippers with Global Climate Change Using Analogues to Simulate Intensity, Trajectory, and Dynamical Changes in Alberta Clippers with Global Climate Change Item Type Thesis Authors Ward, Jamie L. Download date 07/10/2021 05:51:34 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10484/5573 Using Analogues to Simulate Intensity, Trajectory, and Dynamical Changes in Alberta Clippers with Global Climate Change _______________________ A thesis Presented to The College of Graduate and Professional Studies Department of Earth and Environmental Systems Indiana State University Terre Haute, Indiana ______________________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts _______________________ by Jamie L. Ward August 2014 Jamie L. Ward, 2014 Keywords: Alberta Clippers, Storm Tracks, Lee Cyclogenesis, Global Climate Change, Atmospheric Analogues ii COMMITTEE MEMBERS Committee Chair: Gregory D. Bierly (Ph.D.) Professor of Geography Indiana State University Committee Member: Stephen Aldrich (Ph.D.) Assistant Professor of Geography Indiana State University Committee Member: Jennifer C. Latimer Associate Professor of Geology Indiana State University iii ABSTRACT Alberta Clippers are extratropical cyclones that form in the lee of the Canadian Rocky Mountains and traverse through the Great Plains and Midwest regions of the United States. With the imminent threat of global climate change and its effects on regional teleconnection patterns like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), properties of Alberta Clipper could be altered as a result of changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Since the Great Plains and Midwest regions both support a large portion of the national population and agricultural activity, the effects of global climate change on Alberta Clippers could affect these areas in a variety of ways. Despite this reasoning, relatively few studies have addressed Alberta Clippers, especially in comparison to the other North American storm tracks. In this study, the effects of global climate change on Alberta Clippers are examined by using atmospheric analogues chosen from 1950-2012 based on temperature and ENSO characteristics. Composite maps of regional MSLP at 12-hr intervals, 300mb vector wind and geopotential height at the time of cyclogenesis, and 850mb temperature and geopotential height patterns 36 hours after Clipper formation are constructed. Difference maps of 300mb geopotential height patterns between each of the analogues are also constructed. One-way ANOVA tests are also used to analyze Alberta Clipper latitude and longitude values at t=0, Clipper trajectory azimuths from t=0 to t=60, central MSLP values for these storms twelve hours after formation, and MSLP pressure gradients at t=24. iv The results from these tests indicate that, of the four analogues, the Cold and El Niño years are the most dissimilar, maintaining statistically significant differences in upper-level wind magnitude and starting longitude values. MSLP at t=12 is lower in the Cold storms than the El Niño storms, but statistical significance between these values is not quite achieved. Furthermore, geopotential height differences and their associated rate of change with respect to map distance indicate that the 300mb geopotential height patterns of the El Niño and Cold analogues are quite different from one another. The La Niña and Warm analogue years are different from one another with respect to latitude and longitude values of Alberta Clippers at cyclogenesis. Based on these results, the effects of temperature increase alone will not influence the properties of Alberta Clippers as much as changes in ENSO that could be caused by global climate change. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS As a graduate student working towards my master’s degree, there have been many people that have contributed towards my educational growth, and to them I am eternally grateful. First, I would like to extend thanks to the members of my graduate committee for their input on my project as I have worked to complete it. My advisor, Gregory Bierly, has provided me with invaluable advice, encouragement, and motivation through the courses he taught, as well as his involvement in my project. I could not have asked for a better graduate mentor. Stephen Aldrich, who is also a member of my thesis committee, has been very helpful with all of the GIS and technologically-based questions I have thrown his way. Furthermore, Jennifer Latimer has provided much insight into the structure and components of my research that have served to help me think “outside of the box”. Furthermore, I would to express my heartfelt appreciation for all that my parents and sister, Robin Ward, have done for me throughout the entirety of my life. Jeremy Bennett and Brooke Haldeman have also been extremely supportive of me as I have worked through my thesis project, as have the members of the Carignan family and my friends from my undergraduate days. It is because of these people that I have become the person I am today. Finally, the support provided by the Indiana Space Grant Consortium has been essential for the completion of this project through financial assistance, providing me with essential equipment and living expense-based resources. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS COMMITTEE MEMBERS ............................................................................................................ ii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................................x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................1 Research Questions ............................................................................................................. 4 CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ..........................................................................6 Cyclone Climatologies ........................................................................................................ 6 Lee Cyclogenesis ................................................................................................................ 9 Climate Change ................................................................................................................. 14 Analogues ......................................................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 3: METHODS .............................................................................................................21 Cyclone Selection ............................................................................................................. 21 Source of Alberta Clipper Data......................................................................................... 22 Analogue Years ................................................................................................................. 22 Statistical Analysis Methods ............................................................................................. 24 Measurement of Alberta Clipper Trajectories .................................................................. 26 Measurement of Alberta Clipper Intensity ....................................................................... 27 vii Measurement of Alberta Clipper Dynamics ..................................................................... 28 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ............................................................................ 31 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 31 Cold Seasons and Analogues ............................................................................................ 32 Composite MSLP Patterns ................................................................................................ 36 Alberta Clipper Trajectories ............................................................................................. 63 Alberta Clipper MSLP at t=12 .......................................................................................... 72 Alberta Clipper 300mb Geopotential Height .................................................................... 74 Alberta Clipper 300mb Winds .......................................................................................... 86 Alberta Clipper Surface Pressure Gradient ....................................................................... 95 Alberta Clipper Temperature Advection .......................................................................... 97 CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH ......................... 103 Composites ...................................................................................................................... 104 Trajectories ..................................................................................................................... 105 MSLP .............................................................................................................................. 106 300mb Geopotential Height ...........................................................................................
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