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Climate Change Adaptation and Recovery from Climate Hazards: Micro- Econometric Evidence from Rural Bangladesh

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Climate Change Adaptation and Recovery from Climate Hazards: Micro- Econometric Evidence from Rural Bangladesh The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Climate Change Adaptation and Recovery from Climate Hazards: Micro- econometric Evidence from Rural Bangladesh Shaikh Moniruzzaman A corrected thesis resubmitted to the Department of Geography and Environment of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, June 2017 1 | P a g e Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of <61792> words. [See Regulations for Research Degrees, paragraphs 34.5 or 36.3 on the word count of your thesis] Statement of publication of work I confirm that I already published a major part (around 80%) of chapter 2 in the Ecological Economics journal (October 2015) as single author. 2 | P a g e Abstract This thesis addresses two important issues of environmental and resource economics: how agricultural households adapt to climate change (CC) and how the households recover from climate hazards. Chapter 1 attempts to enunciate the perspective of the overall research and the rationale for researching on Bangladesh. It summarizes the global evidences of CC and disaster, their impacts, vulnerabilities in agriculture sector, significance of adaptation and poverty impact of disaster. Chapter 2 examines whether crop choice is affected by CC and the extent to which households switch their crops in response to the CC scenarios. It finds that crop choice is climate-sensitive and a shift in crop choices will take place in Bangladesh in response to CC scenarios. This research also finds that crop choice will be more sensitive to change in temperature than change in rainfall. Chapter 3 examines the effect of CC on crop diversification and the households’ response to CC scenarios. It finds that crop diversity is climate sensitive and this diversity in different locations varies with climatic conditions. Effects of rainfall scenarios on crop diversity are much lower compared to the effects of temperature. Chapter 4 investigates the impact of cyclone on consumption and income dynamics in a quasi-experimental setting and finds that low income people are more sensitive of their asset loss to income generation compared to the high income people, and disaster causes income loss, but, people show their resilience in accelerating higher income growth compared to the non-affected areas. Chapter 5 examines poverty group dynamics in the post-shock period and the existence of a poverty trap in the cyclone affected coastal region of Bangladesh. It finds that asset loss or asset holding impacts the dynamism of the poverty groups and poverty traps exists at low levels of income in the disaster affected areas compared to the unaffected areas. 3 | P a g e Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ 8 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 10 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 1 Climate Change, Disaster and Adaptation: Relevance of Research on Bangladesh 1.1 Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts and Adaptation ............................................................ 15 1.1.1 Adaptation vs Mitigation ............................................................................................... 22 1.1.2 Definition of Adaptation ................................................................................................ 23 1.2 Climate Change, Agriculture and Adaptation ....................................................................... 24 1.3 Disaster, Impacts and Coping Strategies ............................................................................... 28 1.4 Bangladesh: Climate Change and Disaster ............................................................................ 31 1.4.1 Climate Change in Bangladesh ....................................................................................... 31 1.4.2 Planned Climate Change Adaptation in Bangladesh ...................................................... 33 1.4.3 Cyclones and impacts in Bangladesh ............................................................................. 36 1.5 Summary of the Structure of the Dissertation ...................................................................... 38 1.5.1 Chapter 2: Crop Choice as Climate Change Adaptation .................................................... 38 1.5.2 Chapter 3: Crop Diversity as Climate Change Adaptation ................................................. 40 1.5.3 Chapter 4: Natural Disaster and Income and Consumption Dynamics ............................. 41 1.5.4 Chapter 5: Natural Disaster, Poverty Dynamics and Poverty Trap ................................... 42 1.6 Conclusion: Rationale of Dissertation ................................................................................... 44 1.7 References ............................................................................................................................ 45 Chapter 2 Crop Choice as Climate Change Adaptation: Evidence from Bangladesh 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 50 2.2 Literature Review .................................................................................................................. 52 2.2.1 Risk in Agriculture .......................................................................................................... 52 2.2.2 Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture .................................................................... 53 2.2.3 Climate Change and Adaptation in Agriculture of Bangladesh ...................................... 56 4 | P a g e 2.3 Data Description ................................................................................................................... 58 2.3.1 Household Information .................................................................................................. 58 2.3.2 Crops of Bangladesh ...................................................................................................... 60 2.3.3 Pattern of Land Ownership ............................................................................................ 61 2.3.4 Environmental Data ....................................................................................................... 62 2.4 Theoretical Motivation and Empirical Methods ................................................................... 64 2.5 Estimated Results .................................................................................................................. 70 2.5.1 Results of MNL Regression ............................................................................................. 71 2.5.2 Comparison among the Four Models: Structural Stability ............................................ 73 2.5.3 Crop Choice and Rainfall ................................................................................................ 74 2.5.4 Crop Choice and Temperature ....................................................................................... 76 2.6 Climate Change Scenarios and Crop Switching in Bangladesh ............................................. 78 2.6.1 Climate Change Scenarios .............................................................................................. 78 2.6.2 Simulation of Crop Choice under Rainfall Scenarios ...................................................... 79 2.6.3 Simulation of Crop Choice under Temperature Scenarios ............................................ 80 2.7 Conclusion and Policy Implication ........................................................................................ 82 2.8 References ............................................................................................................................ 83 2.9 Appendices ............................................................................................................................ 88 2.9.1 Multinomial Logit Regression of Crop Choice for Different Years ................................. 88 2.9.2 Crop Diversity and Irrigation .......................................................................................... 90 Chapter 3: Crop Diversity as Climate Change Adaptation 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 92 3.2 Crop Diversity and Climate Change Adaptation .................................................................. 93 3.3 Data Description ................................................................................................................... 96 3.3.1 Household Information .................................................................................................
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