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Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL

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Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL Annex II (a) – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Technical Feasibility Report Enhancing adaptive capacities of coastal communities, especially women, to cope with climate change induced salinity A report prepared by the Government of Bangladesh, with technical support from the United Nations Development Programme and International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) - Informed by site studies by Practical Action and Water Aid August 2017 Annex II (a) – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Foreword Climate change poses significant challenges to Bangladesh. It is not merely an environmental issue that is defined by rise in sea level and precipitation changes; it represents a serious sustainable development problem that affects everyone in our country, particularly women and marginalised groups in coastal communities who are the most vulnerable. Bangladesh, therefore, considers effective and ongoing efforts to adapt to climate change a national priority. As an active party of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bangladesh has worked closely with the international community to address climate change and the consequences thereof for coastal communities. This Green Climate Fund Feasibility Study supports the design of the project proposal of Enhancing adaptive capacities of coastal communities, especially women, to cope with climate change induced salinity in further addressing these consequences and impacts. The geographic and climatic characteristics of Bangladesh combined with the marginalisation of large parts of the population makes the nation particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. The country has repeatedly been listed as being globally among the most vulnerable countries to climate change1,2,3. According to the World Risk Index, Bangladesh ranks fifth of countries most at risk of a natural disaster, scoring 32 per cent for exposure, 40 per cent for susceptibility, 57 per cent for lack of adaptive capacity, 61 per cent for vulnerability, and 86 per cent in lacking coping capacities4. These sentiments were shared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who noted that Bangladesh will be amongst the worst victims of climate change. The key ocean and climate drivers projected to affect the nation are: (i) Variations in air and ocean temperatures; (ii) Changes in precipitation patterns; (iii) Sea level rise; and (iv) Intensification of extreme weather phenomena, such as cyclones. An increase in overall mean sea level exacerbates the impact of extreme tides and tidal surges, leading to inundations of coastal areas with saltwater. Sea level rise in the coastal zone of Bangladesh has been 6-21 mm per year, rising faster than the global average. Two thirds of Bangladesh is less than five metres above sea level, making the coastal regions particularly susceptible to tidal surges and incremental impacts, such as erosion and salinity. Sea level rise will be a significant driver of coastal inundations with saltwater amplifying current trends of salinity intrusion in ground and surface water aquifers, and soils. This leads to significant impacts on the agricultural productivity and fresh water availability of communities living in the coastal belt. These impacts associated with salinity intrusion will further be exacerbated through an intensification of extreme weather phenomena like cyclones and consequential tidal surges caused by climate change. The Districts of Khulna and Satkhira, identified as among the most vulnerable districts in Bangladesh due to geographical positioning and climate, remain a key focus of the government and many other development partner organizations’ interventions for addressing climate change impacts. The Government of Bangladesh has recognized the risks associated with climate change for several decades and has been accessing the Least Developed Country Fund, the Special Climate Change Fund and Adaptation Fund to address them. With the recommendations in 2005 by the National Adaptation Programme of Action, the Government of Bangladesh initiated a USD 100 million equivalent budget allocation to advance climate 1 Maplecroft (2013) Climate change vulnerability index 2012. Maplecroft. Available online at: http://maplecroft.com/themes/cc/ 2 Maplecroft (2014) Climate change vulnerability index 2013. Maplecroft. Available online at: http://maplecroft.com/themes/cc/ 3 Maplecroft (2015) Climate change vulnerability index 2014. Maplecroft. Available online at: http://maplecroft.com/themes/cc/ 4 The 2014 World Risk Report (WRR 2014) published by UNU-EHS and the Alliance Development Works/Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft (BEH) systematically considers a country’s vulnerability, and its exposure to natural hazards to determine a ranking of countries around the world based on their disaster risk. ii Annex II (a) – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I change activities, revised the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, and initiated legal processing of two funds to administer multi-institutional implementation of climate change related activities: the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund and the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund. Several initiatives by non-governmental organisations have built confidence in community-based adaptation to expected long-term climatic changes with donor support and additional funding through the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience. While several projects and programmes aimed at improving the resilience of the vulnerable communities to climate change were implemented in recent times, many of them did not directly address climate change impacts on women and children, some of the most vulnerable members of society. Against this background, the Ministry of Women and Children Affairs (MoWCA) is pleased to present the findings of the feasibility study for proposed project ‘Enhancing adaptive capacities of coastal communities, especially women, to cope with climate change induced salinity’. MoWCA prepared this assessment in coordination with the Department of Public Health and Engineering (DPHE). The United Nations Development Programme provided overall technical support to the Ministry to complete this assessment with inputs from International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD). The study consolidates findings from site-specific assessments prepared by Practical Action and Water Aid. (attached as additional annexes) The study examines observed climate changes and projections for Bangladesh and its impacts on salinity, freshwater based agricultural livelihoods and drinking water supplies. It further recommends solutions and measures to sustainably address these impacts, focussing on Khulna and Satkhira Districts which are most vulnerable. The recommendations formulated by this study have been used to identify and inform concrete activities to strengthen the resilience and adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable communities in Bangladesh, recognising the unique role and circumstances of women. The proposed project contributes towards GoB’s achievement of priorities outlined in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) and its climate change strategies, as well as being prioritized for inclusion in the country’s GCF Country Work Programme, currently under development. We look forward to working together with concerned national and international institutions, UNDP and the Green Climate Fund to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities in the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh. It is expected that the experiences gained through implementation of these recommendations will result in activities and strategic frameworks that can be replicated in other agro/ecological districts in Bangladesh. Minister of Women and Children Affairs, Dhaka, Bangladesh iii Annex II (a) – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Table of contents List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................... viii List of acronyms and abbreviations .................................................................................................... ix 1 Climate Risk Profile of Bangladesh ............................................................................................. 5 1.1 Country Background ................................................................................................................ 5 1.1.1 Geographical context and vulnerabilities ............................................................................ 5 1.1.2 Low-lying coastal areas ....................................................................................................... 6 1.1.3 Socio-Economic Context and Vulnerabilities ...................................................................... 7 1.2 Climate Change: Observed and projected climate variability and change .............................. 9 1.2.1 Precipitation patterns .......................................................................................................... 9 1.2.2 Temperature Trends ........................................................................................................... 13 1.2.3 Storm surge and cyclones .................................................................................................. 15
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