Study on the Genesis of Low Intensity Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model
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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts Department of Social Sciences and International Studies Community Perceptions and Adaptation to Climate Change in Coastal Bangladesh M. Mokhlesur Rahman This thesis is presented for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy of Curtin University March 2014 i Dedicated to My parents ii Declaration To the best of my knowledge and belief this thesis contains no material previously published by any other person except where due acknowledgement has been made. This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university. Signature: ………………………………………………….. Date: ………1 January 2015…………………………………………. iii Acknowledgements The huge task of completing a doctoral thesis obviously demands the support and encouragement of many - from family, friends, and colleagues and more importantly from supervisors. Throughout my journey towards this accomplishment my wife Runa has been the great source of encouragement to fulfill the dream of my father who wanted to see all his children become highly educated but who died when I was in primary school. My mother who died at 101 in October 2013 allowed me to come to Australia in my effort to fulfill my father’s dream. My children were always considerate of the separation from my family for the sake of my study but were curious about what it could bring me at the end. Professor Bob Pokrant, my supervisor, all along has been a guide and often a critic of my quick conclusions on various aspects of the interim research findings. He always encouraged me to be critical while reaching conclusions on issues and taught me that human societies consist of people caught up in complex webs of socio- political relations and diverse meanings, which become ever more complex when we seek to embed those relations and meanings within coupled social ecological systems. -
World Bank Document
LEARNING FROM DISASTER RESPONSE AND PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES THE CASES OF BANGLADESH, BHUTAN, NEPAL AND PAKISTAN Public Disclosure Authorized DISCUSSION PAPER NOVEMBER 2020 Rianna Mohammed-Roberts Oluwayemisi Busola Ajumobi Armando Guzman Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized / Public Disclosure Authorized LEARNING FROM DISASTER RESPONSE AND PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES The Cases of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan Rianna Mohammed-Roberts, Oluwayemisi Busola Ajumobi, and Armando Guzman November 2020 Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper This series is produced by the Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice. The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on HNP topics to encourage discussion and debate. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. For information regarding the HNP Discussion Paper Series, please contact the Editor, Jo Hindriks at [email protected] or Erika Yanick at [email protected]. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. -
Development Letter Draft
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Bangladesh Final Evaluation ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Country Report: Bangladesh
The 5th International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) Tokyo, Japan, 15-18, December 2009 Country Report: Bangladesh Monitoring and forecasting of cyclones SIDR and AILA Colonel Mohammad Ashfakul Islam Engineer Adviser Ministry of Defence Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Dhaka, Bangladesh Introduction • Bangladesh is a deltaic land of about 144,000 sq. km area having great Himalayas to the north and the vast Bay of Bengal on the south. • It is a South Asian country extending from 20° 45' N to 26° 40' N and from 88°05' E to 92°40' E belonging to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). • It has a complex coast line of about 710 kms and long continental shelf with shallow bathymetry. • The Bay of Bengal forms a funneling shape towards the Meghna estuary and for that the storm surge is the highest here in the world. • Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) is the national meteorological service in Bangladesh under the Ministry of Defence of the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh is mandated for cyclone forecasting. • Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) under Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) forwards cyclone warning bulletins to 42,675 coastal volunteers for saving coastal vulnerable people. Position of Bangladesh in the World Map and in the Asia Map Bangladesh Topography of Bangladesh • Land elevation of 50% of the country is within 5 m of MSL - About 68% of the country is vulnerable to flood - 20-25% of the area is inundated during normal flood Bangladesh is the most disaster prone area in the world. -
Research on Sediment Distribution and Management in South-West Region of Bangladesh
Research on Sediment Distribution and Management in South-West Region of Bangladesh WARPO TEAM BUET TEAM Md. Aminul Haque Anisul Haque Md. Jahid Hossain Quamrul Ahsan Md. Jamal Haider Md. Munsur Rahman Md. Anwar Hossain Sadmina Razzaque Shuvro Bhowmick Delowar Hossain Md. Sakib Mahdi Aziz Imran Hossain Newton Anika Tahsin Afroza Akther Interim Report September 2020 Table of Contents Contents Page No Table of Contents 1 List of Figures 2 List of Tables 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1.1 Background 14 1.2 Objectives of the Study 15 1.3 Previous Studies 15 1.4 Organization of the Report 18 CHAPTER TWO Study Area 2.1 Introduction 19 2.2 Estuarine Systems 21 2.3 Sediment Regime 22 2.4 Existing Sediment Management Practices 26 CHAPTER THREE Methodology 3.1 Introduction 30 3.2 Integrated Modelling Framework: The Bangladesh Delta Model 30 (BDM) 3.3 Model Calibration and Validation 42 CHAPTER FOUR Results from BDM 4.1 Introduction 52 4.2 Simulation of Tide in the Bay of Bengal 52 4.2.1 Tide propagation in the Bay of Bengal 52 4.2.2 Distribution of freshwater plume 54 4.2.3 Vertical stratification 55 4.3 Simulation of Storm Surge in the Bay of Bengal 58 4.3.1 Cyclone model 58 4.3.2 Past cyclone scenarios 59 4.3.3 Effect of cyclone wind on tidal current 72 4.4 Simulation of Land Inundation during Monsoon Flood in Bangladesh 74 4.5 Simulation of Land Inundation during Storm Surge Flood in the Coast 81 4.6 Simulation of Sedimentation 82 4.6.1 Sediment movement path along the coast 82 4.6.2 Sedimentation in the floodplains 83 CHAPTER FIVE Conclusions 92 References 94 1 List of Figures Figure Title Page No No. -
Measurement of Total Ozone, D-UV Radiation, Sulphur Dioxide And
MAUSAM, 72, 1 (January 2021), 177-186 551.515.2 : 551.509.32 (267.64) Simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 1999-2013 : Impact of physical parameterization schemes ,# # #,@ M. VENKATARAMI REDDY* , K. KRISHNA REDDY , U. V. MURALI KRISHNA , # S. B. SURENDRA PRASAD , SUBBAREDDY BONTHU** and A. K. MITRA* *National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, UP, India #Semi-arid-zonal Atmospheric Research Centre (SARC), Yogi Vemana University, Kadapa – 516 003, Andhra Pradesh, India @Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune – 411 008, India **National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management, Anna University Campus, Chennai – 600 025, India e mail : [email protected]; [email protected] सार — उणकटबंधीय चवात (TC) सबसे िवनाशकारी और घातक मौसम क घटना म से एक है और यह जानमाल के नुकसान का कारण बनता है। बंगाल क खाड़ी (BoB) चवाती तूफान के िलए एक संभािवत ऊजावान े है, जो चवाती तफू ान क वैिक वाषक कुल संया का लगभग 6% है। जानमाल और सपं िय को नुकसान से बचाने के िलए इन तूफान का सटीक पवू ानुमान आवयक है। इस संबंध म, उणकटबंधीय चवात (TC) के माग और तीता के पूवानुमान से जुड़ी ुटय म कमी आपदा बधं न के िलए अिधक िवसनीय जानकारी का सार करने के िलए एक महवपूण पहलू है। वतमान अययन म 1999-2013 के दौरान बगं ाल क खाड़ी (BoB) म उणकटबंधीय चवात (TC) के माग और तीता के िसमुलेशन के िलए उत अनुसंधान मौसम अनुसंधान और पूवानुमान (WRF-ARW) मॉडल के दशन क जांच क गई है । WRF-ARW मॉडल के िविभ सूम भौितक ाचल (MP), कपासी ाचलीकरण (CP) और भूमडं लीय परसीमा तर (PBL) योजना का उपयोग करके 38-चवात (1999-2013 के दौरान) के संयामक िसमुलेशन कए गए। 11 संयोजन का उपयोग करके कुल 1133 िसमलु शे न कए गए िजसम चार सूम भौितक ाचल (MPs) [Lin et al. -
Cyclone Warning Division, New Delhi May, 2013
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT A Preliminary Report on Cyclonic storm, Viyaru over Bay of Bengal (10-16 May , 2013) Kalpna imagery & DWR Khepupara at the time of landfall CYCLONE WARNING DIVISION, NEW DELHI MAY, 1201 3 Cyclonic Storm, Viyaru over Bay of Bengal (10 - 16 May, 2013) 1. Introduction A cyclonic storm, Viyaru crossed Bangladesh coast near lat.22.80N and long. 91.40E, about 30 km south of Feni around 1330 hrs IST of 16th May 2013 with a sustained maximum wind speed of about 85-95 kmph. The salient features of this storm are as follows. (i) The genesis of the disturbance took place in a lower latitude, near 5 degree North. (ii) It was one of the longest track over north Indian Ocean in recent period after the very severe cyclonic storm, Phet over the Arabian Sea (31 May-07 June, 2010) (iii) The cyclonic storm moved very fast (about 40-50 km per hour on the day of landfall, i.e. on 16th May 2013. Such type of fast movement of the cyclonic storm is very rare. (iv) Due to the faster movement, the adverse weather due to the cyclonic storm was relatively less. 2. Brief life history A depression formed over southeast Bay of Bengal at 1430 hrs IST of 10th May 2013 near latitude 5.00N and longitude 92.00E. It moved northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression in the evening of the same day. Continuing its northwestward movement, It further intensified into a cyclonic storm, Viyaru in the morning of 11th May 2013. -
Growth of Cyclone Viyaru and Phailin – a Comparative Study
Growth of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin – a comparative study SDKotal1, S K Bhattacharya1,∗, SKRoyBhowmik1 and P K Kundu2 1India Meteorological Department, NWP Division, New Delhi 110 003, India. 2Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700 032, India. ∗Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] The tropical cyclone Viyaru maintained a unique quasi-uniform intensity during its life span. Despite beingincontactwithseasurfacefor>120 hr travelling about 2150 km, the cyclonic storm (CS) intensity, once attained, did not intensify further, hitherto not exhibited by any other system over the Bay of Bengal. On the contrary, the cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal intensified into very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) within about 48 hr from its formation as depression. The system also experienced rapid intensification phase (intensity increased by 30 kts or more during subsequent 24 hours) during its life time and maximum intensity reached up to 115 kts. In this paper, a comparative study is carried out to explore the evolution of the various thermodynamical parameters and possible reasons for such converse features of the two cyclones. Analysis of thermodynamical parameters shows that the development of the lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) was low and quasi-static during the lifecycle of the cyclone Viyaru. For the cyclone Phailin, there was continuous development of the lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric PV, which attained a very high value during its lifecycle. Also there was poor and fluctuating diabatic heating in the middle and upper troposphere and cooling in the lower troposphere for Viyaru. On the contrary, the diabatic heating was positive from lower to upper troposphere with continuous development and increase up to 6◦C in the upper troposphere. -
Impact of Initial Condition on Prediction of Bay of Bengal Cyclone ‘Viyaru’ – a Case Study
International Journal of Computer Applications (0975 – 8887) Volume 94 – No 10, May 2014 Impact of Initial Condition on Prediction of Bay of Bengal Cyclone ‘Viyaru’ – A Case Study K. S. Singh M. Mandal Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, Kharagpur -721302, Kharagpur -721302, West Bengal, India West Bengal, India ABSTRACT storms [2]. The genesis of TCs over BOB is highly seasonal, Accurate prediction of track and intensity of land-falling with primary maximum in the post-monsoon season (October tropical cyclones is of the great importance in weather to December) and secondary maximum during the pre- prediction in making an effective tropical cyclone warning. monsoon season (April and May). The TCs over BOB are This study examines the impact of initial condition on real moderate in size and intensity, but the death toll associated time prediction of Bay of Bengal cyclone Viyaru. For this with these storms is highest in the world. This is due to the purpose, the customized version of Advanced Research core geographical structure of the Bay of Bengal, densely of Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model populated coastal region, shallow bathymetry, nearly funnels with two-way interactive double nested model at 27 km and 9 shape of the coastline, poor socio-economic conditions and km resolutions is used to predict the storm. The model initial presence of many rivers. Beside human causality TCs cause conditions are derived from the FNL analysis and Global huge damage to property. -
Forecasting of Cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-Based Cyclone Prediction System (CPS) of IMD – an Evaluation
Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation SDKotal1, S K Bhattacharya1,∗, SKRoyBhowmik1 and P K Kundu2 1India Meteorological Department, NWP Division, New Delhi 110 003, India. 2Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700 032, India. ∗Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013.