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Measurement of Total Ozone, D-UV Radiation, Sulphur Dioxide And MAUSAM, 72, 1 (January 2021), 177-186 551.515.2 : 551.509.32 (267.64) Simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 1999-2013 : Impact of physical parameterization schemes ,# # #,@ M. VENKATARAMI REDDY* , K. KRISHNA REDDY , U. V. MURALI KRISHNA , # S. B. SURENDRA PRASAD , SUBBAREDDY BONTHU** and A. K. MITRA* *National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, UP, India #Semi-arid-zonal Atmospheric Research Centre (SARC), Yogi Vemana University, Kadapa – 516 003, Andhra Pradesh, India @Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune – 411 008, India **National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management, Anna University Campus, Chennai – 600 025, India e mail : [email protected]; [email protected] सार — उणकटबंधीय चवात (TC) सबसे िवनाशकारी और घातक मौसम क घटना म से एक है और यह जानमाल के नुकसान का कारण बनता है। बंगाल क खाड़ी (BoB) चवाती तूफान के िलए एक संभािवत ऊजावान े है, जो चवाती तफू ान क वैिक वाषक कुल संया का लगभग 6% है। जानमाल और सपं िय को नुकसान से बचाने के िलए इन तूफान का सटीक पवू ानुमान आवयक है। इस संबंध म, उणकटबंधीय चवात (TC) के माग और तीता के पूवानुमान से जुड़ी ुटय म कमी आपदा बधं न के िलए अिधक िवसनीय जानकारी का सार करने के िलए एक महवपूण पहलू है। वतमान अययन म 1999-2013 के दौरान बगं ाल क खाड़ी (BoB) म उणकटबंधीय चवात (TC) के माग और तीता के िसमुलेशन के िलए उत अनुसंधान मौसम अनुसंधान और पूवानुमान (WRF-ARW) मॉडल के दशन क जांच क गई है । WRF-ARW मॉडल के िविभ सूम भौितक ाचल (MP), कपासी ाचलीकरण (CP) और भूमडं लीय परसीमा तर (PBL) योजना का उपयोग करके 38-चवात (1999-2013 के दौरान) के संयामक िसमुलेशन कए गए। 11 संयोजन का उपयोग करके कुल 1133 िसमलु शे न कए गए िजसम चार सूम भौितक ाचल (MPs) [Lin et al. (LIN Ferrier (new Eta) (FERR), WSM 6 तरीय योजना ौपले योजना (WSM6) और थॉपसन (THOMP)], चार CPs [Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi (GD) New Grell Scheme (NG)], और तीन PBLs [Yonsei यूिनवसटी कम (YSU), Mellor-Yamada- Janjic (Eta) TKE (MYJ) और असमिमत संवहन मॉडल संकरण 2 (ACM2)] क पहचान करने के िलए बंगाल क खाड़ी (BoB) म उणकटबंधीय चवात (TCs) के माग और तीता का पवू ानुमान करन े के िलए इन योजना का सबस े अछा ताकक संयोजन कया गया है। CP और PBL योजना के सवे संयोजन ने MP योजना क तुलना म चवात क तीता और माग के िसमुलशे न को भािवत कया। इसके अलावा, िविभ ारंिभक िथितय वाले ती तफू ान का िसमुलेशन कया गया और सुझाव दया गया क KF + LIN + YSU के संयोजन न े बंगाल क खाड़ी (BoB) म 72 घटं े के िलए तूफान के बेहतर िसमलु ेशन दान कए, और यह देखा गया क 1999 स े 2013 के चवात म माग ुट कम ई । इससे यह प होता है क WRF-ARW मॉडल क ारंिभक शत और मानककरण योजना म सुधार आ है। यह अययन चवात चेतावनी क , आपदा बंधन क , वातिवक समय क शासन णाली और शोधकता को चवात क घटना के दौरान तटीय समदु ाय के िलए बेहतर बधं न दान करने के िलए बत उपयोगी है। ABSTRACT. Tropical Cyclone (TC) is one of the most devastating and deadly weather phenomena and causes loss of life and property. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is a potentially energetic region for the development of cyclonic storms, accounting about 6% of the global annual total number of cyclonic storms. Accurate prediction of these storms is essential to avoid loss of lives and damage to properties. In this regard, the reduction of errors associated with the track and intensity forecast of the TCs is an important aspect to disseminate more reliable information to the disaster management. The present study examined the performance of Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model for the simulation of track and intensity of TCs over BoB during 1999-2013. The numerical simulations were carried out for 38-cyclones (during 1999-2013) using different microphysical parameterization (MP), cumulus parameterization (CP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes of the WRF-ARW model. The total 1133 simulations were performed by using 11 combinations with four MPs [Lin et al. (LIN), Ferrier (new Eta) (FERR), WSM 6-class Scheme graupel scheme (WSM6) and Thompson (THOMP)], four CPs [Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi (GD) and New Grell Scheme (NG)] and three PBLs (Yonsei University scheme (YSU), Mellor- Yamada-Janjic (Eta) TKE (MYJ) and Asymmetrical Convective Model version 2 (ACM2)] to identify the best logical combination of these schemes to predict the track and intensity of TCs over BoB. The best combination of CP and PBL schemes were more influenced the simulations of intensity and track of the cyclones compared to the MP schemes. Further, the simulations were conducted for intense storms with different initial conditions and suggested that the combination of KF + LIN + YSU provided better simulations of the storms for 72h over the BoB and also observed the (177) 178 MAUSAM, 72, 1 (January 2021) decreased track error from 1999 to 2013 cyclones. This clearly indicated that the improvement in the initial conditions and parameterization schemes of the WRF-ARW model. This study is very useful for the cyclone warning centers, disaster management centers, real-time governance system and researchers to provide better management for coastal community during the cyclone events. Key words – WRF-ARW, Cumulus, microphysical, planetary boundary layer, Cyclones. 1. Introduction cyclones over NIO (Rao and Bhaskar Rao 2003; Mohanty et al. 2004; Sathi Devi et al. 2006; Bhaskar Rao and Hari Tropical cyclones (TCs) are known for the Prasad, 2007; Srinivas et al., 2007; Mukhopadhyay et al., devastation and innumerable damage to lives and 2011; Raju et al., 2011; Deshpande et al., 2012; Reddy infrastructure of the coastal region of the country. The et al., 2014; Singh and Mandal 2014, Mandal et al., 2016; Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are the major Oceans, Singh and Tyagi 2018). Mukhopadhyay et al. (2011) experience the formation of the cyclonic storms every studied the impact of moist processes on Gonu and Sidr year (Singh et al., 2016). In the North Indian Ocean storms over NIO and reported the moist convection (NIO), about 6-7% of the world‟s total TC formation takes produces a better forecast. Raju et al., (2011) highlighted place over the BoB region and are being three times more that the CP schemes controlled the intensity and MP prone compared to Arabian Sea (Gupta 2006). Most of the schemes influenced the track of cyclone NARGIS. TCs developed over the BoB made landfall at different Krishna et al. (2012) studied the model sensitivity for the coastal area of India, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Storms cyclones over the NIO and suggested that the combination developed over the east coast of India and Bangladesh are of YSU of PBL and KF of CP scheme simulated less track extremely deep and intense and have high rainfall rates and intensity errors. However, Pattanayak et al. (2012) (Hirose and Nakamura 2002). Therefore, the forecast of showed that the CP schemes influenced the movement and landfall time and location of these storms are very the PBL schemes controlled the intensity of the cyclone essential by using advanced numerical weather prediction NARGIS. Chandrasekar and Balaji (2012) studied JAL (NWP) models to make emergency response and to save TC using different physical processes and revealed that the lives and property. forecasts were more sensitive to the physical processes of CP schemes. Reddy et al. (2014) revealed that the Several researchers have used the Advanced NWP simulated track and intensity of cyclone JAL were models (Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research sensitive to the choice of CP schemes rather than MP and Forecasting (WRF)) for the prediction of cyclones in schemes of the model. Singh and Bhaskaran (2017) different regions (Prater and Evans, 2002; Yang and studied the prediction of severe cyclonic storms over the Ching, 2005; Fovell and Su, 2007; Srinivas et al., 2007; Li BoB region and suggested that the simulations were and Pu, 2009; Loh et al., 2010; Raju et al., 2011; Singh sensitive to the parameterization of convective and PBL and Mandal 2015; Singh and Bhaskaran 2018). Prater and schemes. Evans (2002) reported that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme provided better forecasts of the storm Irene (1999). Yang Several researchers have studied the importance of and Ching (2005) revealed that the Medium-Range physical parameterization schemes on the prediction of Forecast Model (MRF) of planetary boundary layer (PBL) track and intensity of TCs. These studies explored the and Grell-Devenyi (GD) of cumulus parameterization simulated track and intensity of the cyclones at different (CP) combined with the Goddard Graupel of resolutions of the domain and with different microphysical parameterization (MP) scheme showed the initial/boundary conditions.
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