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Updates to Modelling Floods in Europe ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 1 1 Updates to Modelling Floods in Europe Alastair Clarke, PhD Richard M Yablonsky, PhD ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 2 2 Agenda Introduction AIR’s Inland Flood Model for Central Europe • Updates to the Hazard Component • Updates to the Vulnerability Component • Modelled Losses The Addition of Great Britain Storm Surge to AIR’s Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe • Updates to the Hazard Component • Hazard Model Validation • Modelled Losses • Upcoming Software Changes ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 3 3 Introduction ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 4 4 Milestones in Model Development Central Europe Inland Flood Poland, Switzerland, updates to Italy, Germany Austria, Czech Hungary, other Republic Slovakia countries 2000 2011 2013 2015 2019 Future Addition of Great Britain Great Britain Great Britain Vulnerability Storm Surge Update to EU ETC Great Britain Storm Surge ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 5 5 What Is Driving the Updates? Recent New Data Events Poland and Information updates to other countries Additional Domain 2019 Asset Demand Expansion Types Addition of Great Britain Storm Surge Building Model Into EU ETC Other Unification Experience Models ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 6 6 New Industry Exposures Modelled at 90-Metre Resolution • Utilised best available building footprint data sets to accurately locate risks • Updated construction splits, replacement costs, coverage splits, and policy conditions • Improved automobile valuation methodology 2 • Identified high-value industrial facilities TIV per kmper TIV ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 7 7 Vulnerability Updates Leverage a Unified Framework Across Models in Europe • Addition of marine cargo, marine hull, industrial facilities, wind turbine, and builder’s risk Marine • Incorporation of unknown damage functions at CRESTA level • Updated secondary damage distributions Industrial Facilities ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 8 8 Support for New Secondary Risk Characteristics Custom Flood Presence of Floor of Protection Basement Interest First-Floor Custom Height Elevation ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 9 9 Inland Flood Model for Central Europe ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 10 10 Poland Is Now Included In the Model Addition of: - Two major river basins: Oder and Vistula - 14,470 catchments - More than 86,873 km of river network - More than 110,649 river cross sections at intervals of roughly 500 metres ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 11 11 The Number of Marquee Historical Events Has Increased 1997 Poland Event Year Existing Events 2002 Austria, Czech Republic, Four Germany 2013 New 2001 Central Poland 2005 Austria, SwitzerlandEurope Events 2007 Switzerland 2010 Poland ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 12 12 The Precipitation Simulation Initiates the AIR Flood Model Precipitation Define Events Surface Vulnerability Module Runoff Pluvial Hydrological Model River Flow Fluvial ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 13 13 Updates to the Hazard Component ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 14 14 AIR Has Enhanced the Precipitation Catalogue Precipitation • Precipitation downscaling upgraded for better consistency across country boundaries leads to more realistic Define Events footprints for extreme events • Addition of Poland resulted in Hydrological redefining of events Model ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 15 15 Hazard Is Updated to Reflect Fluvial and Pluvial • Germany hazard was re-evaluated based on new information Pluvial • Improved pluvial hazard consistencies across political boundaries • Updated levee information Fluvial ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 16 16 Latest Data Updates Standard of Protection (SoP) Data Sources • National and State-Level Flood Authorities • Municipal Flood Protection Authorities • CORINE Land Cover Source: Wikipedia ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 17 17 Updates to the Vulnerability Component ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 18 18 The Updated Pluvial Module Uses a Statistical Model • Design relative runoff and urban land use are used to estimate pluvial drainage in urban areas Rostock ! Hamburg ! Berlin ! Hannover ! Münster ! Düsseldorf ! Dresden ! Legend Frankfurt am Main ! Drainage5 year Protection Nürnberg ! CapacityRR Stuttgart 0 ! Low München 1.1 - 1.4 Freiburg im Breisgau ! ! 1.5 - 1.5 1.6 - 1.6 High1.7 - 1.9 ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 19 19 Unified and Updated Relative Vulnerabilities Building Contents 4 4 3.5 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 Relative to ResidentialRelative 0.5 to ResidentialRelative 0.5 0 0 Commercial Building Industrial Building Commercial Contents Industrial Contents Germany Switzerland, Austria, and Czech. Rep. Previous Updated ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 20 20 Residential and Commercial Damage Functions from Claims Data 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Residential Claims 0.6 Commercial Claims 0.5 0.4 0.3 Mean Damage Ratio 0.2 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Flood Depth (Metres) ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 21 21 Updated Secondary Damage Distributions 1 0.07 0.06 0.8 0.05 0.04 0.6 0.03 Probability 0.4 0.02 Mean Damage Ratio (MDR) Damage Ratio Damage 0.01 0.2 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 Damage Ratio Hazard Intensity (Flood Depth) ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 22 22 Modelled Losses ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 23 23 Ground-Up AAL Changes on AIR’s Industry Change Impact Exposure Database (IED) <25% 25–50% >50% Germany Switzerland Austria Czech Republic Impact of Hazard and SoP Updates Impact of Residential Damage Function Updates Impact of Commercial Damage Function Updates Overall Impact on AIR IED ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 24 24 Historical Event Ground-Up Total Loss Validation 16 14 Observed Lower Limit 12 Modelled Observed Upper Limit 10 8 6 Loss (EUR Billions) (EUR Loss 4 2 0 CH05 CH07 AT02 AT05 AT13 CZ02 CZ13 DE02 DE13 PL97 PL01 PL10 PL13 ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 26 26 Poland Insurable Ground-Up Exceedance Probability 30 25 20 1997 15 Loss 2010 2001 Aggregate 10 Occurrence 5 - AAL 2 5 10 20 40 50 100 250 500 1,0001000 25002,500 Return Period (Years) ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 27 27 Germany Insured Gross Loss Change Previous Loss Updated AAL 5 10 20 40 50 100 250 500 1,0001000 2,5002500 Aggregate Occurrence Return Period (Years) ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 28 28 Change by Line of Business and CRESTA in Touchstone® AIR Industry Exposure Database (IED): Germany IED: Gross Insurable AAL Change by CRESTA 200% Gross Insurable Loss Change Increase 150% No Change Decrease 100% 50% 0% Gross Insurable AAL Change AAL Insurable Gross -50% ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 29 29 Loss Cost Map and Total Modelled Losses Aggregated Annual Ground-Up Loss by Country Austria Switzerland Czech. R Germany Poland Previous Updated ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 31 31 The Addition of Great Britain Storm Surge to AIR’s Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 32 32 Changes in Model Configuration 2019 Update: Previously: Storm Surge sub-peril in the AIR AIR Coastal Flood Model for Extratropical Cyclone Model Great Britain for Europe ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 33 33 What Is Storm Surge? Sea Defences Topography Shallow Water Deep Sea Wind Pressure Bathymetry ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 34 34 Extratropical Cyclones Generate Storm Surge in Great Britain Historical Storm Tracks Latitude ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European SeminarLongitude Attendees Only 35 35 Historical Events Affect Both the West and East Coasts Storm Anne (2014): West Coast Example* Storm Xaver (2013): East Coast Example** *another example is Storm Undine (1991) **another famous example is North Sea Flood (1953) Southerly wind pushes water into Northerly wind pushes water into Irish Sea the Channel ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 36 36 Updates to the Hazard Component ©2019 AIR Worldwide Confidential - For European Seminar Attendees Only 37 37 New Hydrodynamic Coastal Flood Model Hydrodynamic Domain Coarse • Expanded domain covers all Mesh of England and Wales Fine Mesh: • Uses Delft3D Flexible Mesh Current Coverage New Coverage • Dynamic simulation of tides and surge • Driven by wind and pressure from EU ETC model catalogue (see Keshtpoor, Carnacina, and Yablonsky, 2019: New Statistical Approach to Select Coastal Flood-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog. J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean
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