THE INSTITUTE for NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Strategic Survey for Israel 2013-2014 Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Editors M ISSION

THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Strategic Survey for Israel 2013-2014 Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Editors M ISSION

The Institute for National Security Studies launches and engages in innovative, relevant, high-quality research that shapes the public discourse of issues on Israel's national security agenda, and provides policy analysis and recommendations to decision makers, public leaders, and the strategic community, both in Israel and abroad. As part of its mission, it is committed to encourage new ways of thinking and expand the traditional contours of establishment analysis. INSS researchers are guided by the four core values of professionalism, relevance, intellectual independence, and teamwork. Adhering to the highest standards of research and analysis, they are engaged in exploring the most pressing issues of Israel’s national security, and contribute through creative and innovative thinking to national security policymaking. Professional integrity and intellectual rigor underlie their work at INSS, as they seek to share ideas and learn from one another while retaining their belief in the value of their own ideas. A BOUT INSS

he Institute for National Security issues that are already part of the public Studies (INSS) was established discourse and those that portend future in 2006, incorporating the Jaffee importance, INSS both responds to and TCenter for Strategic Studies founded at helps shape the national security agenda. Tel Aviv University in 1977 by Major General (ret.) Aharon Yariv, former chief Through its policy-oriented research, of Military Intelligence (1964-72) and INSS aims to inform and influence Minister of Information for Prime Minister Israel's decision makers and contribute Rabin (1974-76). As an independent, non- to sound decision making processes that partisan professional think tank operating integrate knowledge, assessments, and new outside the governmental political and ways of thinking. INSS activity includes security establishment, INSS is excellently publications, conferences, seminars, positioned to analyze Israel's strategic war games and simulations, strategic situation and devise creative policy dialogues, government and military approaches. briefings, briefings to the media and to the diplomatic corps, and consulting Conceiving of strategy as a dynamic activity. INSS is also a primary resource interdisciplinary field that involves for individuals and organizations dealing intellectual, political, military, economic, with Israeli national security strategy. and social resources, INSS focuses on the strategic challenges facing the State of The Institute's greatest asset is its Israel. The research conducted at INSS researchers, most of whom have rich enriches the public debate of issues related backgrounds in foreign affairs, security, to Israel's national security, which in turn international relations, and policymaking. endows governmental deliberations with Encompassing renowned academics and a greater awareness of public opinion on practitioners alike, many among the staff these fundamental matters. By probing have held senior positions in various public

2 institutions, including the IDF, the Prime Minister's Office, the Ministry of Foreign POLICY- Affairs, and the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, or have served as scholars in distinguished academic institutions in ORIENTED the United States and in Europe, as well as in Israel. RESEARCH Operating as an independent nonprofit public benefit company, INSS is defined as an external institute affiliated with Tel Aviv hile it is debatable whether the State of Israel University, with full research, budgetary, has ever enjoyed a quiet period, experts and administrative autonomy. Through its agree that the immediate challenges on association with Tel Aviv University, INSS Israel’sW national security agenda are qualitatively different enjoys the benefits of working with specific from previous predicaments and demand new strategic academic programs at the University with approaches. There is an urgent need to reassess Israel’s which it has common research interests, current strategic environment and propose how Israel among them the Moshe Dayan Center for might best navigate the challenges it confronts. This Middle Eastern and African Studies, the is precisely the role of INSS, where basic research Blavatnik School of Computer Science, complements analysis of issues of the day. The practical and the Buchmann Faculty of Law. application of INSS research takes the form of “out of the box” thinking and the design of policy options for INSS is the only Israeli institute ranked decision makers in government, the defense establishment, among the world’s leading think tanks and the strategic community, and the private sector. listed as one of the world’s fifty leading institutes in the field of security and The most pressing issues related to Israel’s national security international affairs. selected by the Director of INSS as principal research fields for the coming period include: the Iranian nuclear threat, revolutionary changes in the Arab world, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and new paradigms to attain a two-state reality, US-Israel relations and the future of the “special relationship,” the delegitimization of Israel, and cyber warfare.

INSS research rests on pluralism and a free exchange of ideas among the researchers. The heterogeneous research staff ensures that INSS does not assume either a particular political viewpoint or unified ideological outlook.

3 B OARD OF DIRECTORS

he Institute’s Board of Directors is chaired by Frank Lowy, AC, of Australia, co-founder and chairman of the Westfield Group and Chairman of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (Australia). The Board includes nine Tother members with backgrounds in academia, diplomacy, foreign affairs, security, and business: • Prof. Itamar Rabinovich, Vice Chairman • Alfred Akirov • Zeev Feldman • Ambassador Martin Indyk • Prof. Joseph Klafter, President of Tel Aviv University • David Kolitz • David Lowy • Prof. Aron Shai, Rector of Tel Aviv University • Rami Ungar

4 B OARD OF TRUSTEES

he International Board of Trustees comprises a group of distinguished individuals, renowned in their fields, who support INSS as part of their commitment to the national security of the State of Israel. The Chairman of Tthe Board is Jonathon Jacobson of Boston, Massachusetts, founder, Chief Investment Officer, and CEO of Highfields Capital Management LP. Jeffrey Silverman is the Vice Chairman of the Board of Trustees. The other members of the Board of Trustees are:

• Lord David Alliance • Sander and Tracy Gerber • Glen Lewy • Nina Rosenwald • Aaron Applbaum • Michael Goddard • Gila and Adam Milstein • Haim Saban • Robert Asher • Gary Goldberg • Amb. Alfred Moses • Paul Singer • David Avital • Martin Goldberg • Joseph and Jeanetter • Michael Sonnenfeldt • Hillel Bachrach • Martin Green Neubauer • Michael Steinhardt • Howard Berkowitz • Jeff Greene • Robin Chemers Neustein • Guillermo Strauss • Nissan Boury • Martin Gross • Michael Perlman • Albert Sweet • Charles Bronfman • Josh Guberman • Albert and Marilyn • Doron Valero • Sir Trevor Chinn • Harry Habermann Pollans • Michael Webber • Lester Crown • Yair Hamburger • Uri Rapoport • Martin Whitman • Craig Darian • Roger Hertog • Hermann Reich • Robert Wiener • Mick Davis • Morris Kahn • Marcia Riklis • Mortimer Zuckerman • Michael Diamond • Harold Levy • Israel Roizman

INSS sponsors events abroad for members of the Board of Trustees and friends of INSS, and Trustees are invited to the Institute’s conferences and many of its strategic dialogues.

5 L OOKING BACK

s a reaction to the 1973 Yom institute be completely independent, and Kippur War, Tel Aviv University on that basis the Center for Strategic decided sometime in 1975 to Studies was launched in early 1978. In establishA a center for security studies. 1983, the Center was renamed the Jaffee A number of individuals within and Center for Strategic Studies. outside the University community posited that one possible reason for A number of decisions about the Center’s a place in Israel’s security debate. Within Israel’s thorough surprise on October 6, structure were made from the outset. The a few years, however, the Center began to 1973 was that no institution outside the most important of these was that the acquire a reputation for groundbreaking Israeli “establishment” had assumed the Center would not be structured along and taboo-breaching studies of key aspects responsibility of evaluating the premises “country desks” that corresponded to of Israel’s national security. These included on which government policy was based – Israel’s neighboring states. Instead, the Aryeh Shalev’s book The West Bank: Line of premises that also guided the planning and Center adopted a thematic structure, built Defense, which focused on the territorial conduct of Israel’s defense establishment. on the principal issues that it proposed to dimensions of Israeli security, Shai Had such a research institute existed prior address: the Middle East military balance, Feldman’s book Israeli Nuclear Deterrence, to the 1973 War, it might have questioned US policy in the Middle East, international on Israel’s nuclear policy, and Mark Heller’s the assumptions leading to the intelligence terrorism, and public opinion and national book A Palestinian State: The Implications assessment that war was unlikely. security. These were supplemented in later for Israel, which analyzed the ramifications years by additional long term projects, such of establishing an independent Palestinian The effort to establish such a center as regional security and arms control, and state. began in earnest in late 1976 when Prof. many research projects of more limited Haim Ben Shahar, then president of the duration devoted to specific issues. Governmental resistance to the University, and Prof. Zvi Yavetz, then dean Center’s involvement in security-related of Humanities, heard that Major General deliberations gradually diminished, and (ret.) Aharon (Ahrale) Yariv had decided to the Center became increasingly perceived abandon his brief career in Israeli politics. as “neutral ground” by different arms of Yariv was known to combine military the Israeli defense establishment. By the experience with statesman-like instincts. late 1990s, the Center supplemented its He was also extremely charismatic books, monographs, conferences, and and charming – an embodiment of brainstorming sessions with additional “an officer and a gentleman.” With his forums for analysis and evaluation. uncompromising honesty and integrity, he Beginning in early 1998, Strategic felt unfit for the demands of political life. The road to serious recognition of the Assessment was launched as the Center’s Jaffee Center in the Israeli military and quarterly. In the beginning of the 2000s The University delegation worked academic scene proved to be an uphill additional publications and research diligently to persuade Yariv to help realize battle. While Yariv, as the founder and first activities joined the list, and helped the University’s efforts to study national head of the Center, enjoyed huge personal the Center attain its standing as Israel’s security affairs. In response to the overture, prestige, as an institution the new Center foremost research institute in national Yariv insisted that the newly established had yet to prove that it should be granted security affairs.

6 L OOKING AHEAD

he Neubauer Research Associates Program was launched in THE 2006 by the Philadelphia-based Joseph and Jeanette Neubauer Foundation. The Neubauer Program was created to engage Tdistinguished doctoral candidates embarking on an academic career. NEUBAUER These part-time appointments are suitable for researchers working on RESEARCH ASSOCIATES their dissertations in subjects related to security studies. Affiliation with INSS allows students to complete the dissertation process while acquiring PROGRAM experience in their areas of specialization as research assistants to INSS senior research fellows. Since its inception, five Neubauer associates continued at INSS in a research capacity, while others have continued their careers in the National Security Council; academic institutions in Israel; and government offices.

o further facilitate the recruitment, training, and mentoring THE of the next generation of researchers and policy experts, INSS has launched the Next Generation Program. The addition of Tresearchers at earlier stages of their careers to the more experienced INSS NEXT research staff will help build a stronger staff, both for INSS and for future policymaking offices in Israel. Some of these entry and mid-level researchers GENERATION may continue their careers at INSS; others who assume positions in government or elsewhere in strategy-related fields will be able to strengthen PROGRAM the connection between INSS and the decision making establishment. The program thus creates a framework at INSS for an evolving research staff and the regular injection of new conceptual approaches, research methodologies, and analytical tools. Particularly in light of the significant changes in the Middle East as well as in the global system, the perspective of a new generation of thinkers is especially important to the Instiute, and represents a vital element in any national security policymaking.

7 In an address in Prague in April 2009, President Barack Obama set forth his vision of a world free of nuclear weapons, and outlined three principal means towards that end: reduction and eventual elimination of existing nuclear arsenals; reinforcement of

the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; and heightened security of nuclear materials to

prevent their reaching terrorist organizations. The speech inaugurated a new agenda Disarmament Nuclear and Vision Obama The by the US administration and was followed by several landmark events designed to advance its underlying goal. The Obama Vision and Nuclear Disarmament nuclear arms control and disarmament in the first two years of the Obama presidency, The Obama Vision focusing on the impact of the new disarmament agenda on the nuclear nonproliferation and Nuclear Disarmament analyzes the major developments in regime. The essays compiled here probe the Obama administration’s at times conflicting emphases on nuclear arms control and disarmament, and their implications for deterrence and the determination to confront proliferators such as North Korea Emily B. Landau and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg, Editors and Iran. Also explored here are international treaties for control and disarmament of other weapons of mass destruction; the tension in US-Russia relations over the American missile defense program; and implications of the new agenda for the

Middle East, particularly as it relates to Israel and the nuclear realm. Emily B. Landau and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg, Editors Malz-Ginzburg, Tamar and Landau B. Emily Written by members of the INSS Arms Control and Regional Security Program and other experts, the essays assess the goals and limitations of the Obama vision, particularly under the constraints of American domestic pressures and international and regional political trends. Highlighting the tension between theoretical ideals and the reality of aspiring and accomplished proliferators, the authors emphasize that progress towards nuclear disarmament must be grounded in a nuanced awareness of the opportunities and dangers of this vision in the current international reality.

Emily B. Landau is a senior research associate and director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at INSS. She has lectured and published extensively on the challenge of nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East context. She participates in Track II conferences dealing with arms control and regional security in the Middle East, and is a member of the Expert Advisory Group for Euro- Mediterranean Affairs. Tamar Malz-Ginzburg, a research associate at INSS, completed her doctoral dissertation on “The Effect of National Culture on the Formation of Security Policy: Israel 1949-1956.” Her primary areas of expertise are socio-cultural influences on security doctrine in Israel, arms control, and Middle East regional security.

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107 107

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Israeli PublicThe Opinion Voice on National of the Security People: 2012 Principal INSS publications: Recent INSS memoranda: Yehuda Ben Meir Olena Bagno-Moldavsky Strategic Survey for Israel, an annual Zvi Magen, Russia and the Middle East: book that surveys major developments that Policy Challenges impact on Israel’s strategic environment Yehuda Ben Meir and Olena Bagno- and suggests how Israel might navigate Moldavsky, The Voice of the People: current and prospective national security Israeli Public Opinion on National challenges. Security 2012 Memoranda are monograph-length Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov, Regime Memorandum analytical studies of timely issues with 126 Stability in the Middle East: An policy relevant implications. Analytical Model to Assess the Possibility המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES bdc Strategic Assessment, the INSS quarterly of Governmental Change journal, publishes essays on recent events Russia and the Middle East: Shlomo Brom, ed., In the Aftermath of and ongoing trends related to Israel’s Policy Challenges Operation Pillar of Defense strategic situation. Zvi Magen Emily B. Landau and Anat Kurz, eds., Military and Strategic Affairs is a journal Arms Control Dilemmas: Focus on the published three times a year on Israel’s Middle East military challenges. Meir Elran and Alex Altshuler, eds., The INSS Insight is issued once or twice Complex Mosaic of the Civilian Front weekly as an e-publication to provide a in Israel quick response to timely events.

Memorandum Meir Elran and Yehuda Ben Meir, eds., 127 Drafting the Ultra-Orthodox into the

המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES IDF: Renewal of the Tal Law INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES bdc Strategic Survey for Shmuel Even and David Siman-Tov, Cyber Israel Warfare: Concepts and Strategic Trends 2012 AnatAn Kurz and Shlomo Brom,- Editors2013 at Kurz and Sh lomo B rom, Editors

Often serving as a surrogate for inter-state conflicts, Lebanon has traditionally been a playing field for regional and international actors alike, and thus battling for Beirut has become a key feature of contemporary Middle Eastern politics. Although the game players change, the blurring of domestic and foreign politics and of national and international actors remains a fixed feature of Lebanese

political life. Berti Benedetta Trends New and Dynamics Old Beirut: for Battle Ongoing The Military and Strategic Affairs Strategic and Military The Ongoing Battle for Beirut: Old Dynamics and New Trends studies the role and inﬂuence of foreign intervention in Lebanese domestic affairs, focusing particularly on the shifts in the dynamics of power following the Syrian The Ongoing Battle for Beirut: withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005. The study explores the complexities behind the involvement of several major regional powers (Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia) Old Dynamics and New Trends and internationalMilitary actors (the United States and France) that historically have wielded the most power and inﬂuence over domestic Lebanese politics.

Benedetta Berti demonstrates that overall, Lebanon is pulled simultaneously in and Benedetta Berti opposite directions by two powerful and antagonistic political blocs. Although Strategicthe Syrian-Iranian bloc presently has the upper Affairs hand, Lebanon has not fully transitioned to the “resistance axis.” It maintains tight economic and political ties Volume 16 with Saudi Arabia and appears keen on continuing its relationship with the US. | No. 1 | These intricate relationsVolume have also 5 |had No. their 1 |share May of 2013inﬂuence over the fragile

April 2013 Volume 5 5 Volume and volatile dynamics between Lebanon and Israel.

Given currentLegal sweeping Transparency political and as social a National changes, Security the emerging Strategy Middle Eastern The “Obama Doctrine” and US Policy in the Middle East order is still very much in the making. However, even in the “new Middle East,”

Lebanon will continue to play a crucial role in inﬂuencing the regional balance |

Leading from Behind: 1 No. of power,The and E ect as such, of Cyberwar local powersYoni Technologies will Eshpar continue their on battle Force for Buildup: inﬂuence over Beirut. Eleven Years to the Arab Peace Initiative:

| Sanford Lako | May 2013 May The Israeli Case Time for an Israeli Regional Strategy Benedetta Berti, a research associate at INSS and a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, specializesThe in terrorismClassic andCyber political DefenseGil violence Baram Methods in the Middle Have East, Failed radical – Islamic The Emergence of the Sunni Axis in the Middle East | Ilai Alon and Gilead Sher organizations, and Palestinian and Lebanese politics. Before joining INSS, Dr. Berti worked in NGOs and researchWhat institutesComes Next?in Latin America, the Middle East, Islam and Democracy:| Yoel Guzansky Can the andTwo Gallia Walk Lindenstrauss Together? and the US. She has writtenAmir Averbuchextensively onand Middle Gabi Eastern Siboni politics and political participation Theby armed Proliferation groups, and of co-authored Weapons the in Cyberspaceforthcoming book Hamas and Hezbollah: a Comparative Study (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012) on The US and Israel on Iran: Whither the (Dis)Agreement? Daniel Cohen and Aviv Rotbart the role of political violence in the Arab-Israeli conﬂict. | Yoav Rosenberg Lessons from the Iron Dome Walking a Fine Line: Israel, India, and Iran Yiftah S. Shapir | Ephraim Kam Determining Norms for Warfare in New Situations Asa Kasher and Amos Yadlin Memorandum | Yiftah S. Duqu’s Dilemma: The Ambiguity Assertion and 8 Shapir Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran Response Essays the Futility of Sanitized Cyberwar 111 המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES If it INCORPORATING Comes THE to JAFFEE Force: A Credible Cost-Bene t Analysis THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Matthew Crosston c INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b | Ephraim Asculai CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2307-193X (print) • E-ISSN d2307-8634 (online) c of the Military Option against Iran bd

| Amos Yadlin, Emily B. Landau, and Avner Golov 111 המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES c המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי (ISSN 2307-193X (print) • E-ISSNb d2307-8634 (online THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES c bdc bd Israel’s Incoming Defense Minister and the Hundred-Day A Nuclear Iran: The Spur Lies Ahead Syria: What The Turmoil in Grace Period to a Regional Arms Race? Spring is in the Air? On the Thawing of Turkey-Israel RelationsAnother Layer How Many Rockets of Defense: The Arrow-3 Test Iran Deal with a Possible Outlining Did Iron Dome The Russian Fleet in the

ShootIs of Israel on the Verge a Third Intifada? Down? Are the US and Russia Mediterranean: Reaching Understandings Exercise about Syria? Saudi Activism in a or Military Changing Middle East Middle East for the Challenges of Israel: A Shared Strategy The United States and Operation? The Second Turkel Coping with Iran’s Commission Report Nuclear Capabilities Syrian Weapons in Hizbollah Hands The Elections The Israeli Elections:

in Jordan: Natural Gas to China? Will Israel Sell its People Want Indications and Evolution, Not Implications Revolution Turkey’s Puzzle The Pieces of and Russia: Between NATO The Decision Iraq and the Arabs following the American Withdrawal to Call Off the 2012 WMDFZ American Intervention in Israeli Politics: Past Conference: Experience, Future An Outcome Barack Obama and the Prospects Middle East Three Years On Destined from The Breakup of Israel’s Strategic Puzzle the Start? 9 R ESEARCH PROGRAMS

Iranian Nuclearization: America’s “Special Relationship” The Ramifications for Israel with Israel Arms Control and Regional Security Program on US Policy in the Middle Program East The ramifications of Iranian nuclearization US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro for Israel, the region, and the world at has spoken at INSS on the strength of large form a current thrust of the INSS US-Israel relations. The political changes program. Research focuses on sanctions and new governments in Washington and efforts, the feasibility and consequences Jerusalem, however, invite renewed efforts of a military strike on Iran, the larger by Israel to strengthen the bilateral ties. threat of Iran’s hegemonic ambitions, The program studies how Israel might best and the threat of nuclear proliferation make its case in Washington and among in the region should Iran attain military US public opinion, particularly when the nuclear capability. These and other issues countries display divergent strategic and are explored in the articles compiled in the tactical positions on critical issues. recent monograph Arms Control Dilemmas: Focus on the Middle East. International Law and Asymmetric Warfare Jumpstarting the Israeli- Program on Law and National Palestinian Process: Security A Call for New Paradigms Most non-state players are not subject to Program on Israeli-Palestinian systems of mutuality that over the years Relations have allowed the application of the laws The Palestinian issue, at the heart of Israel’s of war among nations, and this imbalance strategic posture and security agenda, has enabled non-state entities to violate appears frozen, with few prospects for a international law without suffering any political breakthrough, despite intense US sanction. This creates a difficult situation efforts. The program focuses on creative for norm-abiding states, Israel among measures with which Israel might approach them. The purpose of the program is to the current impasse in the negotiations in provide responses to challenges related order to secure its future as a democratic to international law stemming from Jewish state. Hamas and the Gaza situation asymmetrical cross-border warfare. were the subject of the collection of essays In the Aftermath of Operation Pillar of Defense.

10 Cyberspace: The Newest Warfare Domain Neubauer Program on Cyber Warfare Israel’s national security is in large measure a function of its ability to defend its critical systems from cyber attacks. The program, which is a joint endeavor of INSS and the Blavatnik School of Computer Science at Tel Aviv University, addresses cyber- related threats and opportunities, and aims to draft guidelines for a doctrine of warfare in the cyber realm. Leading experts in cyber security appeared at the INSS conference “Cyberspace and Challenges of the Financial Sector.”

Security and “Social Justice" Program on the IDF, Israeli Society, and Public Opinion Complementing external threat assessments and military balance considerations in Israel’s security doctrine are internal challenges that confront Israeli society. One major focus of the program is society’s approach to the IDF, including the demand that all eligible citizens share the obligation of military service. A second focus is the longstanding INSS Nation- al Security and Public Opinion Project. Surveys that provide data on Israeli public opinion on various national security issues are analyzed for their policy implications for Israel’s leadership.

11 R ESEARCH PROGRAMS (cont.)

Terrorism, Politics, and what Lies component of Israel’s security concept. Between Them The program studies the principles Program on Terrorism and Low underlying IDF force development and Intensity Conflict force deployment, and their impact on the Palestinian militancy, Hizbollah, and other military’s ability to provide an appropriate manifestations of Islamic terrorism and response to the range of threats facing the global jihad continue to confront Israel country. INSS researchers work closely with an ongoing security challenge. The with units in the IDF to tackle the relevant INSS program studies the impact of the questions, and the Military and Strategic “Arab Spring” on terrorist groups, al- Affairs journal is published within the Qaeda activity, and the political power of framework of the program. non-state actors. The program also studies the complex issue in Israel of redeeming Forecasting National Security captives and the possibility of instituting Needs binding national guidelines for the future, Program on Technology Forecasting and launched a conference series on the and Policy Implications subject. While it is difficult to shape policy based on future technologies, this is precisely The Home Front under Fire what is called for in national security- Program on Homeland Security related fields. INSS has launched a project Operation Pillar of Defense was Israel’s to harness proven existing technological most recent battle waged to attain security forecasting capabilities for the task of for its civilian population. The INSS testing and formulating guidelines for program deals with the diverse aspects of security policy. The project currently the Israeli home front and its preparedness focuses on the extensive use of unmanned for civilian crises, wars, and large scale (primarily land-based) systems, and will terror activities, as well as natural disasters. try to glean insights that will serve as In collaboration with the Ministry of guidelines for security policy. Defense, INSS hosts an annual conference on the preparedness of the home front. Middle East Military Balance Project The Military Component of The Middle East Military Balance Project Israel’s Security Concept constitutes a computerized database of Program on Military and Strategic twenty-two Middle East armed forces, Affairs defense infrastructures, and arms Changes in Israel’s strategic environment transactions. The database, published in demand a thorough review of the military full on the INSS website, is one of its

12 R ESEARCH PROGRAMS (cont.)

kind, and is a vital tool for research on the How Much Can Money Buy? military aspects of the challenges that exist Neubauer Program on Economics in Israel’s greater strategic environment. and National Security Economic prospects in Israel influence Looking Eastward national security and the capacity to attain Program on Israel-China Relations strategic goals on issues ranging from the China’s involvement in the Middle defense budget and the financial cost of East has grown steadily over the past conflicts to the political consequences of two decades, posing both challenges sanctions and boycotts and the impact and opportunities before Israel. China’s of economic growth on stability in the booming economy and newly acquired neighboring Arab countries. With the technological capabilities, along with its understanding that economics constitute a direct contact with regional leaders, make major component of strategic analysis, the it an increasingly important actor in the program focuses on the interface between area. The program, in collaboration with economy, society, politics, and national the Israel Institute, aims to enhance the security. knowledge about China’s involvement in the Middle East and provide Israeli decision Other Research Programs: makers with policy recommendations • Israel and the Arab World regarding China. • Center for Applied Negotiations • Israel: An Emerging Energy Giant The Arab Minority in the Jewish • Israel and Global Trends 2030 State Neubauer Program on Israeli Arabs The status of the Arab minority in Israel poses a political and social challenge to the state, bearing on Israel’s overall national security. In addition, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has a direct impact on the Israeli Arab population. This program studies the basic undercurrents of Israel’s Arab population in general and the sector’s particular segments, exploring what can be done to foster a favorable atmosphere and positive relations between the Jewish majority and the Arab minority.

13 14 E VENTS

NSS sponsors both public conferences Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads,” and closed seminars dealing with key speakers from Israel, the US, and Europe issues on Israel’s national security debated the future of the NPT and Iagenda and the stability of the Middle related nonproliferation efforts, against East. Most are held at INSS and feature the background of the Iranian threat and leading experts and invited professionals North Korea’s ongoing nuclear activity. The from Israel and abroad. keynote address was delivered by Rose E. Gottemoeller, Acting Under Secretary for The annual international conference series Arms Control and International Security, “Security Challenges of the 21st Century” US Department of State. draws renowned government, diplomatic, military, and media figures from Israel and In addition to a conference on the Yom abroad. Highlights of the 2013 conference Kippur war, the Military and Strategic included Israel’s first public statement on Affairs Program sponsored three main the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and events in 2013: the second annual the “Working Man Speech” by Finance conference on the cyber arena, which Minister Yair Lapid. Most of the sessions focused on the challenges of cyberspace to of the two-day conference were devoted the financial sector; an annual conference to presentation and deliberation of INSS sponsored with the International Red policy recommendations on the leading Cross on challenges of warfare in densely national security issues. populated areas; and an annual conference on aerial threats and air defense. To mark forty years since the Yom Kippur War, INSS held a series of conferences Additional events were devoted to twenty on this seminal event in Israel’s political, years since the signing of the Oslo accords; social, diplomatic, and military history. Israel’s natural gas opportunities; and an One conference session brought together international conference on Iran, which Eli Zeira, head of Military Intelligence in included remarks by former Mossad head 1973, and Zvi Zamir, head of the Mossad at Meir Dagan. Other forums, including the time, and one conference was devoted seminars and strategic dialogues, allowed to the US diplomatic involvement in 1973 INSS researchers to exchange ideas with and the implications for subsequent US colleagues and experts from the United policy in the Middle East. States, India, Germany, France, Russia, and China. These events were joined by At the annual conference sponsored many other conferences connected to the by the Arms Control and Regional research areas pursued at INSS. Security Program in 2013, “The Nuclear

15 IN THE MEDIA

Foreign Policy As Egypt Roils, Israel Watches July 8, 2013 Mark Heller on the overthrow of the Morsi regime in Egypt: “What’s complicated is that there’s no denying the deep hostility of every Islamist movement, including the Muslim Brotherhood, to Israel. But it’s also true that the other political forces in Egypt, including those simplistically described as liberal or secular, are often no less hostile.” Wall Street Journal Israel, Jordan, Palestinians to Sign Water Agreement December 9, 2013 Oded Eran on the water-supply agreement signed by Israel, Jordan, and the PA: “This is very important. It doesn’t change the geopolitics of the Middle East, but it changes the infrastructure map. Once nations have concrete economic interests to protect, they become more interested in peace and security.”

TIME Beirut Bombing: Is Lebanon Edging Back Toward Civil War? December 27, 2013 Benedetta Berti on the ongoing violence in Lebanon: “This is a conversation carried out through bombs. It’s hard to see it as anything else than a signaling – which is not a new 16 game; we’ve seen this over and over.” FARS News Agency Iran to Display 12 New Home-Made Cyber Products Saturday December 14, 2013 “Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in an October article by Gabi Siboni wrote that clearly the capabilities of the IRGC make Iran one of the most advanced nations in the field of cyberspace warfare.”

Chicago Tribune Netanyahu to Urge Caution in Obama Response to Iranian Overtures New York Times September 24, 2013 Israel and Turkey in Talks over Deadly Emily Landau on negotiations with Iran: “Israel is in Flotilla Raid May 6, 2013 the position of being on the outside of the negotiating Gallia Lindenstrauss on Israel-Turkey relations: room, continually telling those inside that they “This is not so much about going back to the old have to be really, really careful. If Israel was taking alliance but about lowering the level of hostility part in the talks you might hear less rhetoric from between the two countries.” Netanyahu, as he would be in more of a position to actually impact the direction of the talks.”

Financial Times Israel Fears Being Left Alone to Counter Iran Nuclear Programme September 2, 2013 New Republic Yoel Guzansky: “Will the US back its own red Israel Doesn’t Need America on D-Day lines and do something about Iran? The answer October 23, 2013 after Obama’s speech is no – we are alone. That’s a From an interview with Amos Yadlin: “Rouhani is very basic feeling – this is what people here think.” a new phenomenon in the Iranian regime. But we need to keep in mind that he is not a reformist. He is the flesh and blood of the radical Iranian regime.” 17 E XECUTIVE TEAM

AMOS YADLIN, Executive Director of INSS General (ret.) Amos Yadlin assumed the position of Director of INSS in November 2011. Following a term as head of Military Intelligence, he retired in 2010 from the IDF after more than forty years of service. Among his previous positions, he served as deputy commander of the Israel Air Force, Israel’s military attaché in Washington, and commander of the IDF Military Colleges and the National Defense College. He participated in the Yom Kippur War, Operation Peace for the Galilee, and Operation Tammuz – the destruction of the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. General (ret.) Yadlin has written on national security, force development, intelligence, civil-military relations, and the military ethics of fighting terror.

UDI DEKEL, Deputy Director Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dekel was head of the negotiations team with the Palestinians in the Annapolis process. His last post in the IDF was head of Strategic Planning in the Planning Directorate of the General Staff. At INSS his research focuses on decision making processes in Israel; the peace process; and strategic trends in the Middle East.

ORLY HAYARDENY, Deputy Director for Finance and Development Ms. Hayardeny has extensive experience in the financial and business sector. Before coming to INSS she served as Chief Financial Officer at FIBI Holdings Ltd, which holds the First International Bank of Israel (FIBI). She also serves as a director in public and private companies.

ANAT KURZ, Director of Research Dr. Kurz has lectured and published widely on insurgency-related issues, sub-state political organizations, and terrorism as a strategy of warfare. Her research focuses on sub-state conflict resolution and the Palestinian national movement, and she is active in Track II talks on the Middle East peace process. She co-edited the annual Strategic Survey for Israel series (2009-2013).

18 R ESEARCH TEAM

OWEN ALTERMAN EPHRAIM ASCULAI Mr. Alterman specializes in Israel’s Dr. Asculai worked at the Israel relations with the United States Atomic Energy Commission for and other issues of geopolitics and over forty years, including a term strategic planning. A lawyer by at the International Atomic Energy training, he has extensive experience Agency. He participated in the in both the private and non-profit deliberations toward conclusion of sectors and has worked in a variety the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, of international settings, from the and worked on the establishment law firm of Allen & Overy LLP to of its verification mechanism. His the US Peace Corps. research focuses on strategies for stemming WMD proliferation.

YEHUDA BEN MEIR AZRIEL BERMANT A psychologist and an attorney, Dr. Dr. Bermant specializes in US Ben Meir was a member of Knesset arms control policy, NATO missile and deputy minister of foreign defense policy, and nuclear weapons affairs in the Begin and Shamir proliferation. He is also an expert governments. Editor of INSS Insight, on Israel’s relations with Europe, he directs the National Security and and wrote his doctoral thesis on Public Opinion Project at INSS. His Margaret Thatcher and the Arab- fields of expertise are civil-military Israeli conflict. For nearly a decade relations and public opinion in he worked as a writer, editor, and Israel. translator for Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

BENEDETTA BERTI SHLOMO BROM Dr. Berti specializes in terrorism Former director of strategic and political violence in the planning in the IDF General Staff, Middle East, focusing specifically Brig. Gen. (ret.) Brom participated on political integration of armed in peace negotiations with the groups, democratization, and social Palestinians, Jordan, and Syria, and movements and civil society, as well served as deputy to the national as Palestinian, Lebanese, and Syrian security advisor. He directs the politics. She is a Young Atlanticist at INSS program on Israeli-Palestinian the Atlantic Council, and a member relations, and he co-edited the of the faculty at Tel Aviv University. Strategic Survey for Israel series (2009-2013). 19 UZI EILAM MEIR ELRAN Brig. Gen. (ret.) Eilam’s extensive Brig. Gen. (ret.) Elran served military career spanned combat and as deputy head of IDF Military command experience. He served Intelligence and senior advisor in as head of military R&D at IDF Israel’s National Security Council headquarters, and was director and several government ministries. general of the Israeli Atomic Energy His fields of research are Israel’s Commission. His areas of expertise home front, national resilience, and are the European defense concept domestic issues related to national and its defense industry, and security. He directs the INSS military R&D in general. program on homeland security.

ODED ERAN SHMUEL EVEN Dr. Eran served as World Jewish An economist specializing in Middle Congress Representative in Israel East security issues, Dr. Even is a and Secretary General of the WJC strategic and economic consultant Israel Branch. He was Israel’s to government offices and private ambassador to the European Union companies in Israel. His publications (covering NATO as well); Israel’s deal with Middle East economies, ambassador to Jordan; and head of Israel’s defense budget, the world oil Israel’s negotiations team with the market, intelligence, and terrorism. Palestinians. He directs the INSS He has also written about cyber programs on US-Israel relations and security and cyber strategies for Israel’s energy resources. Israel.

YAIR EVRON YORAM EVRON YOEL GUZANSKY Prof. Evron has taught international Dr. Evron’s research focuses on Mr. Guzansky joined INSS after relations at Tel Aviv University, the China’s security policy, military coordinating work on the Iranian Hebrew University of Jerusalem, policy, and Middle East policies, nuclear challenge at the National and leading universities abroad. and Israel-China relations. Dr. Security Council. He helped He has published extensively on Evron is a faculty member in Asian devise a public diplomacy strategy international politics, strategic Studies at Haifa University, and with regard to Iran, and dealt affairs, the Arab-Israeli conflict, lectures on China’s foreign affairs with integration of intelligence nuclear proliferation, arms control, and defense policy, the development assessments and a national security and international security regimes. of China’s armed forces, Middle assessment vis-à-vis Iran. At INSS Eastern militaries, and Israel-China his research focuses on the Gulf relations. states, Iran, and inter-Arab issues.

20 DAVID FRIEDMAN MARK A. HELLER Dr. Friedman served in the IDF A principal research associate and Israel’s Ministry of Defense for at INSS and editor of Strategic nearly twenty-five years, and was Assessment, Dr. Heller has taught responsible for R&D projects in international relations at Tel Aviv the field of chemical and biological University and at leading universities defense. His research focuses on in the United States. He has written nonconventional terrorism, with extensively on Middle Eastern particular attention to strategies political and strategic issues. His for confronting bioterrorism and areas of expertise include Israeli- preventing the proliferation of Palestinian relations and Euro- biological weapons to terrorist Mediterranean affairs. groups.

NADIA HILOU EPHRAIM KAM Ms. Hilou, who was the Dr. Kam served as assistant head first Christian Arab woman member of the research division of IDF of Knesset, served as a member Military Intelligence. His fields of of the seventeenth Knesset as a expertise are the Iranian challenge, representative from the Labor Party, Arab states‘ security problems, the and served as head of the national US entanglement in Iraq, strategic unit on the advancement of women intelligence, and Israel’s national in the local government and as security issues. Dr. Kam served deputy head of Naamat Israel on the as deputy director of INSS for subject of co-existence. At INSS she twenty years. works on issues related to the Israeli Arab population and improving Jewish-Arab relations in Israel.

EMILY B. LANDAU GALLIA LINDENSTRAUSS Dr. Landau’s research focuses on Dr. Lindenstrauss specializes in new trends in arms control thinking, Turkish foreign policy, ethnic particularly regarding nuclear conflicts, ethno-national diasporas, proliferation, Middle East regional and military interventions. She security, the Iranian threat, and lectures at the Hebrew University of the challenge from North Korea. Jerusalem and the Interdisciplinary Director of the Arms Control and Center, Herzliya. As a post- Regional Security Program, she doctoral fellow at the Leonard teaches at Tel Aviv University and the Davis Institute for International University of Haifa, and is active in Relations at Hebrew University, Dr. Track II meetings and conferences. Lindenstrauss studied the Armenian diaspora.

21 ZVI MAGEN KOBI MICHAEL An expert on Russia and Russian A senior lecturer at Ariel University interests in the Middle East, Amb. in the Department of Political Magen joined INSS following a long Science and a senior research fellow career in Israel’s Foreign Ministry. at INSS, Dr. Michael focuses on He served as ambassador to the peace and war studies, strategy, Ukraine and to Russia. For several national security, civil-military years he served as head of the Nativ relations, peacekeeping operations, organization (Israel’s liaison group and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. for the FSU and Jewish diaspora He served as the Deputy Director affairs(. General and the Head of the Palestinian Division at the Ministry of Strategic Affairs. Dr. Michael has published widely and is the recipient of several academic prizes.

YAIR NAVEH ORIT PERLOV With the approval of Defense A social media analyst, Ms. Perlov Minister Moshe Yaalon and Chief follows and analyzes the discourse of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, Maj. on the social networks in Arab Gen. Yair Naveh has been seconded states. Prior to joining INSS, she from the IDF to the INSS research served as a political adviser to the staff as a distinguished visiting senior Israeli Ambassador at Large based fellow. In his most recent post in with the informal Israeli mission the IDF, Maj. Gen. Naveh served as in the GCC. She is the former co- Deputy Chief of Staff. His work at editor of the Israeli Foreign Ministry INSS will focus on Israel’s security website in Arabic. concept and the IDF; home front defense policy; and socio-military relations.

YORAM SCHWEITZER ZAKI SHALOM YIFTAH S. SHAPIR An expert on global jihad, Mr. A senior researcher at the Ben- Formerly an officer in the Israel Air Schweitzer has lectured and Gurion Research Institute of Force, Mr. Shapir directs the Middle published widely on international Ben-Gurion University and at East Military Balance Project, which terrorism and anti-terrorism strategy. INSS, Prof. Shalom has published appears in full on the INSS website. His fields of research include the extensively on various facets of His areas of expertise are the “Afghan alumni” phenomenon, al- Israel’s defense policy, the Arab- region’s force structures, weapons Qaeda and its operational strategies, Israeli conflict, and the role of the acquisition, trends in military suicide terrorism, and state- superpowers in the Middle East. The development, ballistic missiles, and sponsored terrorism. He is director author of several books, his work has space assets. of the Program on Terrorism and also focused on the study of Israel’s Low Intensity Conflict. nuclear option.

22 PNINA SHARVIT BARUCH GABI SHEFFER Col. (ret.) Sharvit Baruch, an A professor of political science at expert on the laws of armed the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, conflict, retired from the IDF after Prof. Sheffer’s fields of expertise serving in the International Law include Israeli leadership; Israel- Department, including as head of Jewish diaspora relations; socio- the Department. She served as a military relations in Israel; and legal advisor for negotiations with the impact of existential threats. the Palestinians, and she participated At INSS he coordinates a forum in negotiations with Syria. She on relations between social sectors teaches at Tel Aviv University and at and the military and defense the National Security College. establishments in Israel.

GILEAD SHER GABI SIBONI Mr. Sher was Chief of Staff and Editor of the Military and Strategic Policy Coordinator under Prime Affairsjournal, Dr. Siboni is director Minister Barak. He served as co- of the Military and Strategic Affairs chief negotiator at the Camp David Program and the Cyber Warfare summit and the Taba talks, as well Program. His expertise combines as in extensive rounds of covert the fields of security, military, negotiations. A lawyer by profession, and operational consulting with his research at INSS focuses on the information technology, and his Palestinian issue, conflict resolution, research focuses on military strategy Israel’s security policy, and regional and operations, and IDF force dynamics. deployment and development.

SHIMON STEIN YOAV ZACKS An international consultant serving Col. (ret.) Yoav Zacks launched and Israeli, American, and German heads the program on Technology companies, Amb. Stein served as Forecasting and Policy Implications. Israeli ambassador to Germany. He has a rich background in Prior to this appointment he served research, development, and in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs management in many security- as deputy director general for the related ground and aerial projects, CIS, as well as Eastern and Central and in recent years acquired Europe. He held additional MFA practical experience in business posts in Washington and Germany ventures related to nanotechnology. as well as in Israel. Col. (ret.) Zacks served at the Defense Ministry as a member of the R&D Directorate and was part of the team at the Israeli embassy in the United States.

23 STAFF

Executive Director Orit Perlov Program Coordinator General (ret.) Amos Yadlin Yoram Schweitzer Cyber Warfare; Military and Prof. Zaki Shalom Strategic Affairs Deputy Director Yiftah S. Shapir Daniel Cohen Brig. Gen. (ret.) Udi Dekel Pnina Sharvit Baruch Prof. Gabi Sheffer Research Assistants Deputy Director for Gilead Sher Keren Aviram Finance and Development Dr. Gabi Siboni Amit Barkan Orly Hayardeny Amb. Shimon Stein Lauren Cohen Yoav Zacks Avner Golov Director of Research Hadas Klein Dr. Anat Kurz Alex Altshuler Tamar Levkovich Olena Bagno-Moldavsky Lilac Meltzer Research Staff Liran Ofek Owen Alterman Neubauer Projects Gal Perel Dr. Ephraim Asculai Research Associates Emma Petrack Dr. Yehuda Ben Meir Liran Antebi Dafna Tadmor Azriel Bermant Manal Hreib Brandon Weinstock Dr. Benedetta Berti Roee Kibrik Einav Yogev Brig. Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom Carmit Valensi Gal Gabai Brig. Gen. (ret.) Uzi Eilam Ofir Winter Brig. Gen. (ret.) Meir Elran Finance and Human Dr. Oded Eran Head of Project Innovation Resources Manager Dr. Shmuel Even Shuki Golan Smadar Glikman Prof. Yair Evron Nofar Nathan Dr. Yoram Evron Director of Publications Dr. Sarah Fainberg Moshe Grundman External Relations Dr. David Friedman Deborah Oppenheimer Yoel Guzansky Editor Dr. Mark A. Heller Dr. Judith Rosen Administration Dr. Ephraim Kam Orna Gudai Dr. Emily Landau Director of the Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss Information Center Building Manager Amb. Zvi Magen Yoel Kozak Kobi Pinhas Dr. Kobi Michael Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh Social Networks Manager Yaniv Shlamberg

24 Photography: Itzik Biran, Gilad Luria Givon, Deborah Oppenheimer, Kobi Pinhas, Assaf Shilo Graphic Design: Yael Kfir, Michal Semo-Kovetz, TAU Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir May 2014 THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES 40 HAIM LEVANON ST. • TEL AVIV 6997556 • ISRAEL TEL: +972-3-640-0400 • FAX: +972-3-7447588 המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITYc STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES bd HTTP://WWW.INSS.ORG.IL